Matriz de riesgo para estimar brotes importados de sarampión o rubéola aplicada a Chile / Risk matrix for estimating imported outbreaks of measles or rubella in Chile / Matriz de risco para estimar surtos importados de sarampo ou rubéola aplicada ao Chile

[Español]. Objetivo. Desarrollar una matriz de riesgo para evaluar el riesgo continuo de brotes de sarampión y rubéola asociados con la importación de casos en Chile. Métodos. El desarrollo de herramientas de evaluación de riesgos se realizó en las siguientes etapas: preparación y aprobación de variables biológicas, programáticas y demográficas, ponderación por un panel de expertos de las variables seleccionadas, cálculo del índice de riesgo, espacialización, y transferencia de conocimiento. Resultados. De las 346 comunas de Chile analizadas, 34% se encontraba en el intervalo de riesgo alto de desarrollar un brote de sarampión y rubéola si se producía la introducción del virus, 59%, en el intervalo de riesgo medio, y 3%, en el intervalo de riesgo bajo. El porcentaje restante correspondió a comunas carentes de datos en al menos una de las trece variables requeridas para el cálculo del índice de riesgo. Conclusión. La utilización de esta herramienta permitirá a los equipos subnacionales emplear sus propios datos para evaluar el riesgo de brotes en sus áreas y realizar acciones correctivas para responder rápidamente a cualquier importación de virus en la fase posterior a la eliminación.

[English]. Objective. Develop a risk matrix to evaluate the ongoing risk of measles and rubella outbreaks associated with imported cases in Chile. Methods. The risk assessment tools were developed in the following stages: preparation and approval of biological, programmatic, and demographic variables; weighting of the selected variables by a panel of experts; calculation of the risk index; specialization; and knowledge transfer. Results. Of the 346 Chilean communes analyzed, 34% were in the high-risk interval for experiencing a measles and rubella outbreak with the introduction of the virus, 59%, in the average-risk interval, and 3%, in the low-risk interval. The remaining percentage corresponded to communes lacking data in at least one of the 13 variables required for calculating the risk index. Conclusion. Use of this tool will enable subnational teams to use their own data to evaluate the risk of outbreaks in their area and take corrective action for a rapid response to any importation of these viruses in the post-elimination phase.

[Português]. Objetivo. Desenvolver uma matriz de risco para avaliar o risco contínuo de surtos de sarampo e rubéola associados com a importação de casos no Chile. Métodos. As ferramentas de avaliação de riscos foram desenvolvidas nas seguintes etapas: preparação e aprovação das variáveis biológicas, programáticas e demográficas, consideração das variáveis selecionadas por painel de especialistas, cálculo do índice de risco, especialização e transferência de conhecimento. Resultados. Das 346 comunidades analisadas, 34% estavam dentro da faixa de alto risco de ter um surto de sarampo e rubéola com a introdução do vírus, 59% na faixa de risco intermediário e 3% na faixa de baixo risco. O percentual restante correspondeu a comunidades com dados insuficientes em pelo menos uma das 13 variáveis necessárias ao cálculo do índice de risco. Conclusão. A utilização desta ferramenta permitirá às equipes subnacionais lancer mão de dados próprios para avaliar o risco de surtos e realizar medidas corretivas para responder rapidamente a qualquer importação de vírus na fase posterior à eliminação.

Development of a District-Level Programmatic Assessment Tool for Risk of Measles Virus Transmission.

All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have now set goals for measles elimination by or before 2020. To prioritize measles elimination efforts and use available resources efficiently, there is a need to identify at-risk areas that are offtrack from meeting performance targets and require strengthening of programmatic efforts. This article describes the development of a WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool to be used for monitoring, guiding, and sustaining measles elimination efforts at the subnational level. We outline the tool development process; the tool specifications and requirements for data inputs; the framework of risk categories, indicators, and scoring; and the risk category assignment. Overall risk was assessed as a function of indicator scores that fall into four main categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment. On the basis of the overall score, the tool assigns each district a risk of either low, medium, high, or very high. The cut-off criteria for the risk assignment categories were based on the distribution of scores from all possible combinations of individual indicator cutoffs. The results may be used for advocacy to communicate risk to policymakers, mobilize resources for corrective actions, manage population immunity, and prioritize programmatic activities. Ongoing evaluation of indicators will be needed to evaluate programmatic performance and plan risk mitigation activities effectively. The availability of a comprehensive tool that can identify at-risk districts will enhance efforts to prioritize resources and implement strategies for achieving the Global Vaccine Action Plan goals for measles elimination.