Assessing the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in a low incidence and low mortality setting: the case of Thailand at start of the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, preferred COVID-19 vaccine profiles, and the preferred vaccination strategies in Thailand. METHODS: An age-structured transmission dynamic model was developed based on key local data to evaluate economic consequences, including cost and health outcome in terms of life-years (LYs) saved. We considered COVID-19 vaccines with different profiles and different vaccination strategies such as vaccinating elderly age groups (over 65s) or high-incidence groups, i.e. adults between 20 and 39 years old who have contributed to more than 60% of total COVID-19 cases in the country thus far. Analyses employed a societal perspective in a 1-year time horizon using a cost-effectiveness threshold of 160,000 THB per LY saved. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to identify and characterize uncertainty in the model. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccines that block infection combined with social distancing were cost-saving regardless of the target population compared to social distancing alone (with no vaccination). For vaccines that block infection, the preferred (cost-effective) strategy was to vaccinate the high incidence group. Meanwhile, COVID-19 vaccines that reduces severity (including hospitalization and mortality) were cost-effective when the elderly were vaccinated, while vaccinating the high-incidence group was not cost-effective with this vaccine type. Regardless of vaccine type, higher vaccination coverage, higher efficacy, and longer protection duration were always preferred. More so, vaccination with social distancing measures was always preferred to strategies without social distancing. Quarantine-related costs were a major cost component affecting the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccines are good value for money even in a relatively low-incidence and low-mortality setting such as Thailand, if the appropriate groups are vaccinated. The preferred vaccination strategies depend on the type of vaccine efficacy. Social distancing measures should accompany a vaccination strategy.

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models. Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend. Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.

Economic evaluation of carbetocin as prophylaxis for postpartum hemorrhage in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oxytocin as the drug of choice for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) prevention. However, the WHO has also recently considered carbetocin for PPH prevention, but only if carbetocin were a cost-effective choice in the country. Consequently, we determined the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of carbetocin against oxytocin in the Philippines. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a decision tree was done to compare the costs and outcomes of carbetocin with oxytocin for PPH prophylaxis among women undergoing either vaginal delivery (VD) or cesarean section (CS) in a six-week time horizon using a societal perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to investigate parameter uncertainties. Additionally, budget impact analysis was conducted using a governmental perspective. Results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using a 2895 United States dollar (USD) per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained as the ceiling threshold in the Philippines. RESULTS: Carbetocin was not cost-effective given the listed price of carbetocin at 18 USD. Given a societal perspective, the ICER values of 13,187 USD and over 40,000 USD per QALY gained were derived for CS and VD, respectively. Moreover, the ICER values were sensitive to the risk ratio of carbetocin versus oxytocin and carbetocin price. On budget impact, the five-year total budget impact of a drug mix of carbetocin and oxytocin was 25.54 million USD (4.23 million USD for CS and 21.31 million USD for VD) compared with 'only oxytocin' scenario. CONCLUSION: Carbetocin is not a cost-effective choice in PPH prevention for both modes of delivery in the Philippines, unless price reduction is made. Our findings can be used for evidence-informed policies to guide coverage decisions on carbetocin not only in the Philippines but also in other low and middle-income countries.