Linking Statistics With Testing Policy to Manage COVID-19 in the Community.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the public health surveillance severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing volume needed, both for acute infection and seroprevalence. METHODS: Required testing volumes were developed using standard statistical methods based on test analytical performance, disease prevalence, desired precision, and population size. RESULTS: Widespread testing for individual health management cannot address surveillance needs. The number of people who must be sampled for public health surveillance and decision making, although not trivial, is potentially in the thousands for any given population or subpopulation, not millions. CONCLUSIONS: While the contributions of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 have received considerable attention, concerns abound regarding the availability of sufficient testing capacity to meet demand. Different testing goals require different numbers of tests and different testing strategies; testing strategies for national or local disease surveillance, including monitoring of prevalence, receive less attention. Our clinical laboratory and diagnostic infrastructure are capable of incorporating required volumes for many local, regional, and national public health surveillance studies into their current and projected testing capacity. However, testing for surveillance requires careful design and randomization to provide meaningful insights.

Injury-specific variables improve risk adjustment and hospital quality assessment in severe traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: Hospital benchmarking is essential to quality improvement, but its usefulness depends on the ability of statistical models to adequately control for inter-hospital differences in patient mix. We explored whether the addition of injury-specific clinical variables to the current American College of Surgeons-Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) algorithm would improve model fit. METHODS: We analyzed a prospective registry containing all adult patients who presented to a regional consortium of 14 trauma centers between 2010 and 2011 with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). We used hierarchical logistic regression and stepwise forward selection to develop two novel risk-adjustment models. We then tested our novel models against the current TQIP model and ranked hospitals by their risk-adjusted mortality rates under each model to determine how model selection affects quality benchmarking. RESULTS: Seven hundred thirty-four patients met inclusion criteria. Stepwise selection resulted in two distinct models: one that added three TBI-specific variables (pupil reactivity, cerebral edema, loss of basal cisterns) to the model specification currently used by TQIP and another that combined two TBI-specific variables (pupil reactivity, cerebral edema) with a three-variable subset of TQIP (age, Abbreviated Injury Scale score for the head region, Glasgow Coma Scale motor score). Both novel models outperformed TQIP. Although rankings remained largely unchanged across model configurations, several hospitals moved across quality terciles. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of injury-specific variables improves risk adjustment for patients with severe TBI. Trauma Quality Improvement Program should consider replacing several of its general patient characteristics with injury-specific clinical predictors to increase efficiency, reduce the risk of overfitting, and improve the accuracy of hospital benchmarking. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and epidemiological, level II.

What is Single-Payer Health Care? A Review of Definitions and Proposals in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Single-payer systems have been proposed as a health care reform alternative in the United States. However, there is no consensus on the definition of single-payer. Most definitions characterize single-payer as one entity that collects funds and pays for health care on behalf on an entire population. Increased flexibility for state health care reform may provide opportunities for state-based single-payer systems to be considered. OBJECTIVE: To explore the concept of single-payer and to describe the contents of single-payer health care proposals. DESIGN: We compared single-payer definitions and proposals. We coded the proposal text for provisions that would change how the health care system functions and could impact health care access, quality, and cost. MAIN MEASURES: The share of proposals that include changes to the financing, pooling, purchasing, and delivery of health care; and possible impact on access, quality, and costs. KEY RESULTS: We identified 25 proposals for national or state single-payer plans from journal and legislative databases. The proposals typically call for wide-ranging reform; nearly all include changes across the financing, pooling, purchasing, and delivery of health care services. Many provisions aiming to improve access, quality, and cost containment are also included, but the proposals vary in how they plan to achieve these improvements. Common provisions are related to comprehensive benefits, patient choice of providers, little or no cost sharing, the role of private insurance, provider guidelines and standards, periodic reviews of the benefits package, electronic medical records and billing, prescription drug formulary, global budgets, administrative cost thresholds, payment reform and studies, and the authority to implement cost-containment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Single-payer systems are heterogeneous. Acknowledgment of what is considered as single-payer and the characteristics that are variable is important for nuanced policy discussions on specific reform proposals.

Fostering a Commitment to Quality: Best Practices in Safety-net Hospitals.

In 2007, the Martin Luther King, Jr.-Harbor Hospital (MLK-Harbor), which served a large safety-net population in South Los Angeles, closed due to quality challenges. Shortly thereafter, an agreement was made to establish a new hospital, Martin Luther King, Jr. Community Hospital (MLKCH), to serve the unmet needs of the community. To assist the newly appointed MLKCH Board of Directors in building a culture of quality, we conducted a series of interviews with five high-performing hospital systems. In this report, we describe our findings. The hospitals we interviewed achieved a culture of quality by: 1) developing guiding principles that foster quality; 2) hiring and retaining personnel who are stewards of quality; 3) promoting efficient resource utilization; 4) developing a well-organized quality improvement infrastructure; and 5) cultivating integrated, patient-centric care. The institutions highlighted in this report provide important lessons for MLKCH and other safety-net institutions.

Physician Professional Satisfaction and Area of Clinical Practice: Evidence from an Integrated Health Care Delivery System.

CONTEXT: For health care reform to succeed, health care systems need a professionally satisfied primary care workforce. Evidence suggests that primary care physicians are less satisfied than those in other medical specialties. OBJECTIVE: To assess three domains of physician satisfaction by area of clinical practice among physicians practicing in an established integrated health system. DESIGN: Cross-sectional online survey of all Southern California Permanente Medical Group (SCPMG) partner and associate physicians (N = 1034) who were primarily providing clinic-based care in 1 of 4 geographically and operationally distinct Kaiser Permanente Southern California Medical Centers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary measure was satisfaction with one's day-to-day professional life as a physician. Secondary measures were satisfaction with quality of care and income. RESULTS: Of the 636 physicians responding to the survey (61.5% response rate), on average, 8 in 10 SCPMG physicians reported satisfaction with their day-to-day professional life as a physician. Primary care physicians were only minimally less likely to report being satisfied (difference of 8.2-9.5 percentage points; p < 0.05) than were other physicians. Nearly all physicians (98.2%) were satisfied with the quality of care they are able to provide. Roughly 8 in 10 physicians reported satisfaction with their income. No differences were found between primary care physicians and those in other clinical practice areas regarding satisfaction with quality of care or income. CONCLUSION: It is possible to create practice settings, such as SCPMG, in which most physicians, including those in primary care, experience high levels of professional satisfaction.

A Quasi-experimental Evaluation of Performance Improvement Teams in the Safety-Net: A Labor-Management Partnership Model for Engaging Frontline Staff.

BACKGROUND: Unit-based teams (UBTs), initially developed by Kaiser Permanente and affiliated unions, are natural work groups of clinicians, managers, and frontline staff who work collaboratively to identify areas for improvement and implement solutions. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the UBT model implemented by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services in partnership with its union to engage frontline staff in improving patient care. DESIGN: We conducted a quasi-experimental study, comparing surveys at baseline and 6 months, among personnel in 10 clinics who received UBT training to personnel in 5 control clinics. We also interviewed staff from 5 clinics that received UBT training and 3 control clinics. PARTICIPANTS: We conducted 330 surveys and 38 individual, semi-structured interviews with staff at an outpatient facility in South Los Angeles. INTERVENTIONS: Each UBT leader received an 8-hour training in basic performance improvement methods, and each UBT was assigned a team "coach." MAIN MEASURES: Our outcome measure was 6-month change in the "adaptive reserve" score, the units' self-reported ability to make and sustain change. We analyzed transcripts of the interviews to find common themes regarding the UBT intervention. KEY RESULTS: The survey response rate was 63% (158/252) at baseline and 75% (172/231) at 6 months. There was a significant difference-in-change in adaptive reserve between UBTs and non-UBTs at 6 months (+0.11 vs -0.13; P = .02). Nine of the 10 UBTs reported increases in adaptive reserve and 8 UBTs reported decreased no-show rates or patient length of stay in clinic. Staff overwhelmingly felt the UBTs were a positive intervention because it allowed all levels of staff to have a voice in improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that partnership between management and unions to engage frontline staff in teams may be a useful tool to improve delivery of health care in a safety-net setting.

Variation in Hospital Use of Postacute Care After Surgery and the Association With Care Quality.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about hospital use of postacute care after surgery and whether it is related to measures of surgical quality. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used data merged between a national surgery registry, Medicare inpatient claims, the Area Resource File, and the American Hospital Association Annual Survey (2005-2008). Using bivariate and multivariate analyses, we calculated hospital-level, risk-adjusted rates of postacute care use for both inpatient facilities (IF) and home health care (HHC), and examined the association of these rates with hospital quality measures, including mortality, complications, readmissions, and length of stay. RESULTS: Of 112,620 patients treated at 217 hospitals, 18.6% were discharged to an IF, and 19.9% were discharged with HHC. Even after adjusting for differences in patient and hospital characteristics, hospitals varied widely in their use of both IF (mean, 20.3%; range, 2.7%-39.7%) and HHC (mean, 22.3%; range, 3.1%-57.8%). A hospital's risk-adjusted postoperative mortality rate or complication rate was not significantly associated with its use of postacute care, but higher 30-day readmission rates were associated with higher use of IF (24.1% vs. 21.2%, P=0.03). Hospitals with longer average length of stay used IF less frequently (19.4% vs. 24.4%, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals vary widely in their use of postacute care. Although hospital use of postacute care was not associated with risk-adjusted complication or mortality rates, hospitals with high readmission rates and shorter lengths of stay used inpatient postacute care more frequently. To reduce variations in care, better criteria are needed to identify which patients benefit most from these services.

Using the Knowledge Base of Health Services Research to Redefine Health Care Systems.

This Perspective discusses 12 key facts derived from 50 years of health services research and argues that this knowledge base can stimulate innovative thinking about how to make health care systems safer, more efficient, more cost effective, and more patient centered, even as they respond to the needs of diverse communities.

Comparison between clinical registry and medicare claims data on the classification of hospital quality of surgical care.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the classification of hospital statistical outlier status as better or worse performance than expected for postoperative complications using Medicare claims versus clinical registry data. BACKGROUND: Controversy remains as to the most favorable data source for measuring postoperative complications for pay-for-performance and public reporting polices. METHODS: Patient-level records (2005-2008) were linked between the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) and Medicare inpatient claims. Hospital statistical outlier status for better or worse performance than expected was assessed using each data source for superficial surgical site infection (SSI), deep/organ-space SSI, any SSI, urinary tract infection, pneumonia, sepsis, deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, venous thromboembolism, and myocardial infarction by developing hierarchical multivariable logistic regression models. Kappa statistics and correlation coefficients assessed agreement between the data sources. RESULTS: A total of 192 hospitals with 110,987 surgical patients were included. Agreement on hospital rank for complication rates between Medicare claims and ACS-NSQIP was poor-to-moderate (weighted κ: 0.18-0.48). Of hospitals identified as statistical outliers for better or worse performance by Medicare claims, 26% were also identified as outliers by ACS-NSQIP. Of outliers identified by ACS-NSQIP, 16% were also identified as outliers by Medicare claims. Agreement between the data sources on hospital outlier status classification was uniformly poor (weighted κ: -0.02-0.34). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using the same statistical methodology with each data source, classification of hospital outlier status as better or worse performance than expected for postoperative complications differed substantially between ACS-NSQIP and Medicare claims.

Hospital costs by cost center of inpatient hospitalization for medicare patients undergoing major abdominal surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to describe the magnitude of hospital costs among patients undergoing elective colectomy, cholecystectomy, and pancreatectomy, determine whether these costs relate as expected to duration of care, patient case-mix severity and comorbidities, and whether risk-adjusted costs vary significantly by hospital. Correctly estimating the cost of production of surgical care may help decision makers design mechanisms to improve the efficiency of surgical care. STUDY DESIGN: Patient data from 202 hospitals in the ACS-NSQIP were linked to Medicare inpatient claims. Patient charges were mapped to cost center cost-to-charge ratios in the Medicare cost reports to estimate costs. The association of patient case-mix severity and comorbidities with cost was analyzed using mixed effects multivariate regression. Cost variation among hospitals was quantified by estimating risk-adjusted hospital cost ratios and 95% confidence intervals from the mixed effects multivariate regression. RESULTS: There were 21,923 patients from 202 hospitals who underwent an elective colectomy (n = 13,945), cholecystectomy (n = 5,569), or pancreatectomy (n = 2,409). Median cost was lowest for cholecystectomy ($15,651) and highest for pancreatectomy ($37,745). Room and board costs accounted for the largest proportion (49%) of costs and were correlated with length of stay, R = 0.89, p < 0.001. The patient case-mix severity and comorbidity variables most associated with cost were American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class IV (estimate 1.72, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.87) and fully dependent functional status (estimate 1.63, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.74). After risk-adjustment, 66 hospitals had significantly lower costs than the average hospital and 57 hospitals had significantly higher costs. CONCLUSIONS: The hospital costs estimates appear to be consistent with clinical expectations of hospital resource use and differ significantly among 202 hospitals after risk-adjustment for preoperative patient characteristics and procedure type.

Disproportionate-share hospital payment reductions may threaten the financial stability of safety-net hospitals.

Safety-net hospitals rely on disproportionate-share hospital (DSH) payments to help cover uncompensated care costs and underpayments by Medicaid (known as Medicaid shortfalls). The Affordable Care Act (ACA) anticipates that insurance expansion will increase safety-net hospitals' revenues and will reduce DSH payments accordingly. We examined the impact of the ACA's Medicaid DSH reductions on California public hospitals' financial stability by estimating how total DSH costs (uncompensated care costs and Medicaid shortfalls) will change as a result of insurance expansion and the offsetting DSH reductions. Decreases in uncompensated care costs resulting from the ACA insurance expansion may not match the act's DSH reductions because of the high number of people who will remain uninsured, low Medicaid reimbursement rates, and medical cost inflation. Taking these three factors into account, we estimate that California public hospitals' total DSH costs will increase from $2.044 billion in 2010 to $2.363-$2.503 billion in 2019, with unmet DSH costs of $1.381-$1.537 billion.

Outcomes and cost of diverted versus undiverted restorative proctocolectomy.

BACKGROUND: Some observational studies suggest that diversion during restorative proctocolectomy mitigates the risk of anastomotic complications. However, diversion has its own costs and complications. The aim of this study was to compare the cost and outcomes of diverted to undiverted restorative proctocolectomy. METHODS: This study took advantage of a natural experiment within one surgical department to understand the clinical and financial implications of diversion during restorative proctocolectomy. For the last 10 years, two surgeons routinely diverted all patients undergoing restorative proctocolectomy, and two other surgeons routinely did not. The medical records of 288 consecutive restorative proctocolectomy patients were reviewed. Minimum follow-up time was 1 year, with an average of 4.7 years. Complications rates and costs of care were collected. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between rates of anastomotic leak, fistula, or hernias in diverted versus undiverted patients. The odds of having stricture (odds ratio (OR) = 17.08, P < 0.001) and small bowel obstruction (OR = 5.05, P = 0.02) were both significantly higher in diverted patients. The average cost per patient was $43,000 more in the routinely diverted patients. CONCLUSION: Undiverted restorative proctocolectomy may be the highest value procedure with the most favorable outcomes at the lowest cost.

A comparison of clinical registry versus administrative claims data for reporting of 30-day surgical complications.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the recording of 30-day postoperative complications between a national clinical registry and Medicare inpatient claims data and to determine whether the addition of outpatient claims data improves concordance with the clinical registry. BACKGROUND: Policymakers are increasingly discussing use of postoperative complication rates for value-based purchasing. There is debate regarding the optimal data source for such measures. METHODS: Patient records (2005-2008) from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) were linked to Medicare inpatient and outpatient claims data sets. We assessed the ability of (1) Medicare inpatient claims and (2) Medicare inpatient and outpatient claims to detect a core set of ACS-NSQIP 30-day postoperative complications: superficial surgical site infection (SSI), deep/organ-space SSI, any SSI (superficial and/or deep/organ-space), urinary tract infection, pneumonia, sepsis, deep venous thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism, venous thromboembolism (DVT and/or pulmonary embolism), and myocardial infarction. Agreement of patient-level complications by ACS-NSQIP versus Medicare was assessed by κ statistics. RESULTS: A total of 117,752 patients from more than 200 hospitals were studied. The sensitivity of inpatient claims data for detecting ACS-NSQIP complications ranged from 0.27 to 0.78; the percentage of false-positives ranged from 48% to 84%. Addition of outpatient claims data improved sensitivity slightly but also greatly increased the percentage of false-positives. Agreement was routinely poor between clinical and claims data for patient-level complications. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates important differences between ACS-NSQIP and Medicare claims data sets for measuring surgical complications. Poor accuracy potentially makes claims data suboptimal for evaluating surgical complications. These findings have meaningful implications for performance measures currently being considered.

Assessment of food offerings and marketing strategies in the food-service venues at California Children's Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: Marketing strategies and food offerings in hospital cafeterias can impact dietary choices. Using a survey adapted to assess food environments, the purpose of this study was to assess the food environment available to patients, staff, and visitors at the food-service venues in all 14 California children's hospitals. METHODS: We modified a widely-used tool to create the Nutritional Environment Measures Survey for Cafeterias (NEMS-C) by partnering with a hospital wellness committee. The NEMS-C summarizes the number of healthy items offered, whether calorie labeling is present, if there is signage promoting healthy or unhealthy foods, pricing structure, and the presence of unhealthy combination meals. The range of possible scores is zero (unhealthy) to 37 (healthy). We directly observed the food-service venues at all 14 tertiary care children's hospitals in California and scored them. RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability showed 89% agreement on the assessed items. For the 14 hospitals, the mean score was 19.1 (SD = 4.2; range, 13-30). Analysis revealed that nearly all hospitals offered diet drinks, low-fat milk, and fruit. Fewer than one-third had nutrition information at the point of purchase and 30% had signs promoting healthy eating. Most venues displayed high calorie impulse items such as cookies and ice cream at the registers. Seven percent (7%) of the 384 entrees served were classified as healthy according to NEMS criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Most children's hospitals' food venues received a mid-range score, demonstrating there is considerable room for improvement. Many inexpensive options are underused, such as providing nutritional information, incorporating signage that promotes healthy choices, and not presenting unhealthy impulse items at the register.