Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.

Assessing the impact of a cattle risk-based trading scheme on the movement of bovine tuberculosis infected animals in England and Wales.

The adoption of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) risk-based trading (RBT) schemes has the potential to reduce the risk of bTB spread. However, any scheme will have cost implications that need to be balanced against its likely success in reducing bTB. This paper describes the first stochastic quantitative model assessing the impact of the implementation of a cattle risk-based trading scheme to inform policy makers and contribute to cost-benefit analyses. A risk assessment for England and Wales was developed to estimate the number of infected cattle traded using historic movement data recorded between July 2010 and June 2011. Three scenarios were implemented: cattle traded with no RBT scheme in place, voluntary provision of the score and a compulsory, statutory scheme applying a bTB risk score to each farm. For each scenario, changes in trade were estimated due to provision of the risk score to potential purchasers. An estimated mean of 3981 bTB infected animals were sold to purchasers with no RBT scheme in place in one year, with 90% confidence the true value was between 2775 and 5288. This result is dependent on the estimated between herd prevalence used in the risk assessment which is uncertain. With the voluntary provision of the risk score by farmers, on average, 17% of movements was affected (purchaser did not wish to buy once the risk score was available), with a reduction of 23% in infected animals being purchased initially. The compulsory provision of the risk score in a statutory scheme resulted in an estimated mean change to 26% of movements, with a reduction of 37% in infected animals being purchased initially, increasing to a 53% reduction in infected movements from higher risk sellers (score 4 and 5). The estimated mean reduction in infected animals being purchased could be improved to 45% given a 10% reduction in risky purchase behaviour by farmers which may be achieved through education programmes, or to an estimated mean of 49% if a rule was implemented preventing farmers from the purchase of animals of higher risk than their own herd. Given voluntary trials currently taking place of a trading scheme, recommendations for future work include the monitoring of initial uptake and changes in the purchase patterns of farmers. Such data could be used to update the risk assessment to reduce uncertainty associated with model estimates.

Report of the WHO working group on the assessment of health risks for human infants from exposure to PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs.

On Nov. 20-22, 1995, a World Health Organization working group consisting of 12 scientific representatives from 6 different countries met to reassess the health risks to infants associated with perinatal exposure to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs). Following a review of previous WHO/EURO consultations, as part of their comprehensive programme on PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs, current exposure information and recent experimental and epidemiologic data were discussed. Exposure assessments within the past decade have revealed that in the case of breast milk samples concentrations of PCDDs/DFs and PCBs have shown a continual decline, in certain countries by up to 50%. New experimental data has revealed that a variety of structural, functional and behaviourial alterations can be induced in rodent species following exposure to PHAHs while a Dutch collaborative PCB/dioxin study has illustrated subtle clinical, endocrine and mental/psychomotor development effects can occur in breast fed infants. The provisional conclusions of the working group were: 1) current evidence does not warrant altering the previous WHO recommendation for promotion/support of breast feeding and 2) based on new clinical data which supports the biological plausibility of certain observed experimental observations, continued and enhanced effort should be directed towards identifying and controlling sources of environmental input for these contaminants.

Subchronic effects of 2,3,7,8-TCDD or PCBs on thyroid hormone metabolism: use in risk assessment.

Effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), 3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB 126), or 2,3,3',4,4',5-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB 156) on thyroid hormone metabolism were studied in 13-week feeding studies in female Sprague-Dawley rats. The diets were supplemented with the compounds tested at concentrations ranging from 0.2 to 20 micrograms/kg diet for TCDD, 7 to 180 micrograms/kg diet for PCB 126, or 1.2 to 12 mg/kg diet for PCB 156, respectively. Significant correlations were found for all three compounds between reductions in plasma total thyroxine (TT4) levels and inductions of the microsomal phase II enzyme UDP-glucuronosyltransferase by using T4 as a substrate (T4UGT). Furthermore, the coinduction of certain phase I and II isozymes, i.c., cytochrome P450 1A1 (CYP1A1) and UGT1A1, by these compounds, clearly suggests the involvement of an Ah receptor-mediated mechanism in the disturbance of thyroid hormone metabolism by these polyhalogenated aromatic compounds. These results provide a mechanistic base for the use of certain effects on thyroid hormone metabolism by polyhalogenated aromatic compounds in risk assessment. By using these effects, potencies of PCB 126 and PCB 156 relative to TCDD ranged from 0.008 to 0.1 for PCB 126, and from 0.00007 to 0.004 for PCB 156, respectively. These values correspond very well with relative potencies of PCB 126 and PCB 156 by using some other well-known Ah receptor-mediated toxic and biochemical parameters.

Impact of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls on human and environmental health, with special emphasis on application of the toxic equivalency factor concept.

A scientific evaluation was made of the mechanisms of action of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans and biphenyls. Distinction is made between the aryl-hydrocarbon (Ah) receptor-mediated and non-Ah receptor-mediated toxic responses. Special attention is paid to the applicability of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) concept.