Mortality and Severe Complications Among Newly Graduated Surgeons in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate severe complications and mortality over years of independent practice among general surgeons. BACKGROUND: Despite concerns that newly graduated general surgeons may be unprepared for independent practice, it is unclear whether patient outcomes differ between early and later career surgeons. METHODS: We used Medicare claims for patients discharged between July 1, 2007 and December 31, 2019 to evaluate 30-day severe complications and mortality for 26 operations defined as core procedures by the American Board of Surgery. Generalized additive mixed models were used to assess the association between surgeon years in practice and 30-day outcomes while adjusting for differences in patient, hospital, and surgeon characteristics. RESULTS: The cohort included 1,329,358 operations performed by 14,399 surgeons. In generalized mixed models, the relative risk (RR) of mortality was higher among surgeons in their first year of practice compared with surgeons in their 15th year of practice [5.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-7.3%) vs 4.7% (95% CI: 3.5%-6.3%), RR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.22)]. Similarly, the RR of severe complications was higher among surgeons in their first year of practice compared with surgeons in their 15th year of practice [7.5% (95% CI: 6.6%-8.5%) versus 6.9% (95% CI: 6.1%-7.9%), RR: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.14)]. When stratified by individual operation, 21 operations had a significantly higher RR of mortality and all 26 operations had a significantly higher RR of severe complications in the first compared with the 15th year of practice. CONCLUSIONS: Among general surgeons performing common operations, rates of mortality and severe complications were higher among newly graduated surgeons compared with later career surgeons.

Evaluating Educational Outcomes Using Patient Outcomes of New Surgeons Performing Partial Colectomy Compared to Cholecystectomy.

PURPOSE: Despite ongoing efforts to improve surgical education, surgical residents face gaps in their training. However, it is unknown if differences in the training of surgeons are reflected in the patient outcomes of those surgeons once they enter practice. This study aimed to compare the patient outcomes among new surgeons performing partial colectomy-a common procedure for which training is limited-and cholecystectomy-a common procedure for which training is robust. METHOD: The authors retrospectively analyzed all adult Medicare claims data for patients undergoing inpatient partial colectomy and inpatient cholecystectomy between 2007 and 2018. Generalized additive mixed models were used to investigate the associations between surgeon years in practice and risk-adjusted rates of 30-day serious complications and death for patients undergoing partial colectomy and cholecystectomy. RESULTS: A total of 14,449 surgeons at 4,011 hospitals performed 340,114 partial colectomy and 355,923 cholecystectomy inpatient operations during the study period. Patients undergoing a partial colectomy by a surgeon in their 1st vs 15th year of practice had higher rates of serious complications (5.22% [95% CI, 4.85%-5.60%] vs 4.37% [95% CI, 4.22%-4.52%]; P < .01) and death (3.05% [95% CI, 2.92%-3.17%] vs 2.83% [95% CI, 2.75%-2.91%]; P < .01). Patients undergoing a cholecystectomy by a surgeon in their 1st vs 15th year of practice had similar rates of 30-day serious complications (4.11% vs 3.89%; P = .11) and death (1.71% vs 1.70%; P = .93). CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing partial colectomy faced a higher risk of serious complications and death when the operation was performed by a new surgeon compared to an experienced surgeon. Conversely, patient outcomes following cholecystectomy were similar for new and experienced surgeons. More attention to partial colectomy during residency training may benefit patients.

Prescribed Opioid Dosages, Payer Type, and Self-Reported Outcomes After Surgical Procedures in Michigan, 2018-2020.

Importance: Collaborative quality improvement (CQI) models, often supported by private payers, create hospital networks to improve health care delivery. Recently, these systems have focused on opioid stewardship; however, it is unclear whether reduction in postoperative opioid prescribing occurs uniformly across health insurance payer types. Objective: To evaluate the association between insurance payer type, postoperative opioid prescription size, and patient-reported outcomes in a large statewide CQI model. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from 70 hospitals within the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative clinical registry for adult patients (age ≥18 years) undergoing general, colorectal, vascular, or gynecologic surgical procedures between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Exposure: Insurance type, classified as private, Medicare, or Medicaid. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was postoperative opioid prescription size in milligrams of oral morphine equivalents (OME). Secondary outcomes were patient-reported opioid consumption, refill rate, satisfaction, pain, quality of life, and regret about undergoing surgery. Results: A total of 40 149 patients (22 921 [57.1%] female; mean [SD] age, 53 [17] years) underwent surgery during the study period. Within this cohort, 23 097 patients (57.5%) had private insurance, 10 667 (26.6%) had Medicare, and 6385 (15.9%) had Medicaid. Unadjusted opioid prescription size decreased for all 3 groups during the study period from 115 to 61 OME for private insurance patients, from 96 to 53 OME for Medicare patients, and from 132 to 65 OME for Medicaid patients. A total of 22 665 patients received a postoperative opioid prescription and had follow-up data for opioid consumption and refill. The rate of opioid consumption was highest among Medicaid patients throughout the study period (16.82 OME [95% CI, 12.57-21.07 OME] greater than among patients with private insurance) but increased the least over time. The odds of refill significantly decreased over time for patients with Medicaid compared with patients with private insurance (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98). Adjusted refill rates for private insurance remained between 3.0% and 3.1% over the study period; adjusted refill rates among Medicare and Medicaid patients decreased from 4.7% to 3.1% and 6.5% to 3.4%, respectively, by the end of the study period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of surgical patients in Michigan from 2018 to 2020, postoperative opioid prescription size decreased across all payer types, and differences between groups narrowed over time. Although funded by private payers, the CQI model appeared to have benefitted patients with Medicare and Medicaid as well.

Characterizing geographic variation in postoperative venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after major surgery remains an important contributor to morbidity and mortality. Despite significant quality improvement efforts in prevention and prophylaxis strategies, the degree of hospital and regional variation in the United States remains unknown. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries undergoing 13 different major surgeries at U.S. hospitals between 2016 and 2018 were included in this retrospective cohort study. We calculated the rates of 90-day VTE. We adjusted for a variety of patient and hospital covariates and used a multilevel logistic regression model to calculate the rates of VTE and coefficients of variation across hospitals and hospital referral regions (HRRs). RESULTS: A total of 4,115,837 patients from 4116 hospitals were included, of whom 116,450 (2.8%) experienced VTE within 90 days. The 90-day VTE rates varied substantially by procedure, from 2.5% for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair to 8.4% for pancreatectomy. Across the hospitals, there was a 6.6-fold variation in index hospitalization VTE and a 5.3-fold variation in the rate of postdischarge VTE. Across the HRRs, there was a 2.6-fold variation in 90-day VTE, with a 12.1-fold variation in the coefficient of variation. A subset of HRRs was identified with both higher VTE rates and higher variance across hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial variation exists in the rate of postoperative VTE across U.S. hospitals. Characterizing HRRs with high overall rates of VTE and those with significant variation across the hospitals will allow for targeted quality improvement efforts.

Evidence-Based Opioid Prescribing Guidelines and New Persistent Opioid Use After Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the association of evidence-based opioid prescribing guidelines with new persistent opioid use after surgery. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Patients exposed to opioids after surgery are at risk of new persistent opioid use, which is associated with opioid use disorder and overdose. It is unknown whether evidence-based opioid prescribing guidelines mitigate this risk. METHODS: Using Medicare claims, we performed a difference-in-differences study of opioid-naive patients who underwent 1 of 6 common surgical procedures for which evidence-based postoperative opioid prescribing guidelines were released and disseminated through a statewide quality collaborative in Michigan in October 2017. The primary outcome was the incidence of new persistent opioid use, and the secondary outcome was total postoperative opioid prescription quantity in oral morphine equivalents (OME). RESULTS: We identified 24,908 patients who underwent surgery in Michigan and 118,665 patients who underwent surgery outside of Michigan. Following the release of prescribing guidelines in Michigan, the adjusted incidence of new persistent opioid use decreased from 3.29% (95% CI 3.15-3.43%) to 2.51% (95% CI 2.35-2.67%) in Michigan, which was an additional 0.53 (95% CI 0.36-0.69) percentage point decrease compared with patients outside of Michigan. Simultaneously, adjusted opioid prescription quantity decreased from 199.5 (95% CI 198.3-200.6) mg OME to 88.6 (95% CI 78.7-98.5) mg OME in Michigan, which was an additional 55.7 (95% CI 46.5-65.4) mg OME decrease compared with patients outside of Michigan. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based opioid prescribing guidelines were associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of new persistent opioid use and the quantity of opioids prescribed after surgery.

Postoperative Opioid Prescribing and New Persistent Opioid Use: The Risk of Excessive Prescribing.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the association between postoperative opioid prescribing and new persistent opioid use. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Opioid-nave patients who develop new persistent opioid use after surgery are at increased risk of opioid-related morbidity and mortality. However, the extent to which postoperative opioid prescribing is associated with persistent postoperative opioid use is unclear. METHODS: Retrospective study of opioid-naïve adults undergoing surgery in Michigan from 1/1/2017 to 10/31/2019. Postoperative opioid prescriptions were identified using a statewide clinical registry and prescription fills were identified using Michigan's prescription drug monitoring program. The primary outcome was new persistent opioid use, defined as filling at least 1 opioid prescription between post-discharge days 4 to 90 and filling at least 1 opioid prescription between post-discharge days 91 to 180. RESULTS: A total of 37,654 patients underwent surgery with a mean age of 52.2 (16.7) years and 20,923 (55.6%) female patients. A total of 31,920 (84.8%) patients were prescribed opioids at discharge. Six hundred twenty-two (1.7%) patients developed new persistent opioid use after surgery. Being prescribed an opioid at discharge was not associated with new persistent opioid use [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-1.09)]. However, among patients prescribed an opioid, patients prescribed the second largest [12 (interquartile range (IQR) 3) pills] and largest [20 (IQR 7) pills] quartiles of prescription size had higher odds of new persistent opioid use compared to patients prescribed the smallest quartile [7 (IQR 1) pills] of prescription size [aOR 1.39 (95% CI 1.04-1.86) andaOR 1.97 (95% CI 1.442.70), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of opioid-naïve patients undergoing common surgical procedures, the risk of new persistent opioid use increased with the size of the prescription. This suggests that while opioid prescriptions in and of themselves may not place patients at risk of long-term opioid use, excessive prescribing does. Consequently, these findings support ongoing efforts to mitigate excessive opioid prescribing after surgery to reduce opioid-related harms.

Assessment of Determinants of Value in Carotid Endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND: Over 150,000 carotid endarterectomies (CEA) are performed annually worldwide, accounting for $900 million in the United States alone. How cost/spending and quality are related is not well understood but remain essential components in maximizing value. We sought to identify determinants of variability in hospital 90-day episode value for CEA. METHODS: Medicare and private-payer admissions for CEA from January 2, 2014 to August 28, 2020 were linked to retrospective clinical registry data for hospitals in Michigan performing vascular surgery. Hospital-specific, risk-adjusted, 30-day composite complications (defined as reoperation, new neurologic deficit, myocardial infarction, additional procedure including CEA or carotid artery stenting, readmission, or mortality) and 30-day risk-adjusted, price-standardized total episode payments were used to categorize hospitals into low or high value by defining the intersection between complications and spending. RESULTS: A total of 6,595 patients across 39 hospitals were identified across both datasets. Patients at low-value hospitals had a higher rate of 30-day composite complications (17.9% vs. 10.1%, P < 0.001) driven by a significantly higher rate of reoperation (3.0% vs. 1.4%, P = 0.016), readmission (10.7% vs. 6.2%, P = 0.012), new neurologic deficit (4.6% vs. 2.3%, P = 0.017), and mortality (1.6% vs. 0.6%, P < 0.049). Mean total episode payments were $19,635 at low-value hospitals compared to $15,709 at high-value hospitals driven by index hospitalization ($10,800 vs. $9,587, P = 0.002), professional ($3,421 vs. $2,827, P < 0.001), readmission ($3,011 vs. $1,826, P < 0.001), and post-acute care payments ($2,335 vs. $1,486, P < 0.001). Findings were similar when only including patients who did not suffer a complication. CONCLUSIONS: There is tremendous variation in both quality and payments across hospitals included for CEA. Importantly, costs were higher at low-value hospitals independent of postoperative complication. There appears to be little to no relationship between total episode spending and surgical quality, suggesting that improvements in value may be possible by decreasing total episode cost without affecting surgical outcomes.

Assessment of Patterns of Atherectomy Use.

Background Atherectomy has become the fastest growing catheter-based peripheral vascular intervention performed in the United States, and overuse has been linked to increased reimbursement, but the patterns of use have not been well characterized. Methods and Results We used Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Preferred Provider Organization and Medicare fee-for-service professional claims data from the Michigan Value Collaborative for patients undergoing office-based laboratory atherectomy in 2019 to calculate provider-specific rates of atherectomy use, reimbursement, number of vessels treated, and number of atherectomies per patient. We also calculated the rate that each provider converted a new patient visit to an endovascular procedure within 90 days. Correlations between parameters were assessed with simple linear regression. Providers completing ≥20 office-based laboratory atherectomies and ≥20 new patient evaluations during the study period were included. A total of 59 providers performing 4060 office-based laboratory atherectomies were included. Median professional reimbursement per procedure was $4671.56 (interquartile range [IQR], $2403.09-$7723.19) from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan and $14 854.49 (IQR, $9414.80-$18 816.33) from Medicare, whereas total professional reimbursement from both payers ranged from $2452 to $6 880 402 per year. Median 90-day conversion rate was 5.0% (IQR, 2.5%-10.0%), whereas the median provider-level average number of vessels treated per patient was 1.20 (IQR, 1.13-1.31) and the median provider-level average number of treatments per patient was 1.38 (IQR, 1.26-1.63). Total annual reimbursement for each provider was directly correlated with new patient-procedure conversion rate (R2=0.47; P<0.001), mean number of vessels treated per patient (R2=0.31; P<0.001), and mean number of treatments per patient (R2=0.33; P<0.001). Conclusions A minority of providers perform most procedures and are reimbursed substantially more per procedure compared with most providers. Procedural conversion rate, number of vessels, and number of treatments per patient represent potential policy levers to curb overuse.

Endovascular surgery is not protective against new persistent opioid use development compared to open vascular surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Endovascular techniques continue to be increasingly utilized to treat vascular disease, but the effect of these minimally invasive techniques on opioid use following surgery is not known. METHODS: Using Medicare data, we identified opioid-naive patients undergoing vascular procedures between 2009 and 2017. We selected patients ≥65 years old with continuous enrollment 12 months before and 6 months after surgery and had no additional operations. We defined new persistent opioid use (NPOU) as one or more opioid prescription fills both between 4-90 and 91-180 days postoperatively. Multivariable regression was performed for risk adjustment, and frequencies of NPOU were estimated between endovascular and open techniques to compare surgical approach. RESULTS: A total of 77,767 patients were identified, with 2.6% of all patients developing new persistent use. In addition to the identification of several risk factors for new persistent use, patients undergoing endovascular carotid or vertebral interventions were found to have higher adjusted frequencies of persistent use compared to those undergoing open interventions (3.0% vs. 1.8%, p < 0.001) as did those undergoing endovenous compared to open vein procedures (2.2%, vs. 1.6%, p = 0.019). We found no difference for peripheral vascular or aortic/iliac procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing vascular surgery are at high risk for new persistent use. Undergoing endovascular carotid or venous surgery was associated with an increased risk of NPOU, whereas no differences were found between endovascular and open approaches for peripheral arterial or aortic disease.

Targeting zero preventable trauma readmissions.

BACKGROUND: Nearly 1-in-10 trauma patients in the United States are readmitted within 30 days of discharge, with a median hospital cost of more than $8,000 per readmission. There are national efforts to reduce readmissions in trauma care, but we do not yet understand which are potentially preventable. Our study aims to quantify the potentially preventable readmissions (PPRs) in trauma care to serve as the anchor point for ongoing efforts to curb hospital readmissions and ultimately, bring preventable readmissions to zero. METHODS: We identified inpatient hospitalizations after trauma and readmissions within 90 days in the 2017 National Readmissions Database (NRD). Potentially preventable readmissions were defined as the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality-defined Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions, in addition to superficial surgical site infection, acute kidney injury/acute renal failure, and aspiration pneumonitis. Mean costs for these admissions were calculated using the NRD. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to characterize the relationship between patient characteristics and PPR. RESULTS: A total of 1,320,083 patients were admitted for trauma care in the 2017 NRD, and 137,854 (10.4%) were readmitted within 90 days of discharge. Of these readmissions, 22.7% were potentially preventable. The mean cost was $10,001/PPR, resulting in $313,802,278 in cost to the US health care system. Of readmitted trauma patients younger than 65 years, Medicaid or Medicare patients had 2.7-fold increased odds of PPRs compared with privately insured patients. Patients of any age with congestive heart failure had 2.9 times increased odds of PPR, those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or complicated diabetes mellitus had 1.8 times increased odds, and those with chronic kidney disease had 1.7 times increased odds. Furthermore, as the days from discharge increased, the proportion of readmissions due to PPRs increased. CONCLUSION: One-in-five trauma readmissions are potentially preventable, which account for more than $300 million annually in health care costs. Improved access to postdischarge ambulatory care may be key to minimizing PPRs, especially for those with certain comorbidities. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic and value-based evaluations, level II.

Assessment of Potentially Preventable Hospital Readmissions After Major Surgery and Association With Public vs Private Health Insurance and Comorbidities.

Importance: Rehospitalization after major surgery is common and represents a significant cost to the health care system. Little is known regarding the causes of these readmissions and the degree to which they may be preventable. Objective: To evaluate the degree to which readmissions after major surgery are potentially preventable. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used a weighted sample of 1 937 354 patients from the 2017 National Readmissions Database to evaluate all adult inpatient hospitalizations for 1 of 7 common major surgical procedures. Statistical analysis was performed from January 14 to November 30, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The study calculated 90-day readmission rates as well as rates of readmissions that were considered potentially preventable. Potentially preventable readmissions (PPRs) were defined as those with a primary diagnosis code for superficial surgical site infection, acute kidney injury, aspiration pneumonitis, or any of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality-defined ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with PPRs. Results: A total weighted sample of 1 937 354 patients (1 048 046 women [54.1%]; mean age, 66.1 years [95% CI, 66.0-66.3 years]) underwent surgical procedures; 164 755 (8.5%) experienced a readmission within 90 days. Potentially preventable readmissions accounted for 29 321 (17.8%) of all 90-day readmissions, for an estimated total cost to the US health care system of approximately $296 million. The most common reasons for PPRs were congestive heart failure exacerbation (34.6%), pneumonia (12.0%), and acute kidney injury (22.5%). In a multivariable model of adults aged 18 to 64 years, patients with public health insurance (Medicare or Medicaid) had more than twice the odds of PPR compared with those with private insurance (adjusted odds ratio, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.94-2.25). Among patients aged 65 years or older, patients with private insured had 18% lower odds of PPR compared with patients with Medicare as the primary payer (adjusted odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.90). Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that nearly 1 in 5 readmissions after surgery are potentially preventable and account for nearly $300 million in costs. In addition to better inpatient care, improved access to ambulatory care may represent an opportunity to reduce costly readmissions among surgical patients.

Exploring the rapid expansion of office-based laboratories and peripheral vascular interventions across the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the relationship between office-based laboratory (OBL) use and Medicare payments for peripheral vascular interventions (PVI). METHODS: Using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Provider Utilization and Payment Data Public Use Files from 2014 to 2017, we identified providers who performed percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, stent placement, and atherectomy. Procedures were aggregated at the provider and hospital referral region (HRR) level. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017, 2641 providers performed 308,247 procedures. The mean payment for OBL stent placement in 2017 was $4383.39, and mean payment for OBL atherectomy was $13,079.63. The change in the mean payment amount varied significantly, from a decrease of $16.97 in HRR 146 to an increase of $43.77 per beneficiary over the study period in HRR 11. The change in the rate of PVI also varied substantially, and moderately correlated with change in payment across HRRs (R2 = 0.40; P < .001). The majority of HRRs experienced an increase in rate of PVI within OBLs, which strongly correlated with changes in payments (R2 = 0.85; P < .001). Furthermore, 85% of the variance in change in payment was explained by increases in OBL atherectomy (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A rapid shift into the office setting for PVIs occurred within some HRRs, which was highly geographically variable and was strongly correlated with payments. Policymakers should revisit the current payment structure for OBL use and, in particular atherectomy, to better align the policy with its intended goals.

Assessment of a quality improvement intervention to decrease opioid prescribing in a regional health system.

BACKGROUND: Opioids are prescribed in excess after surgery. We leveraged our continuous quality improvement infrastructure to implement opioid prescribing guidelines and subsequently evaluate changes in postoperative opioid prescribing, consumption and patient satisfaction/pain in a statewide regional health system. METHODS: We collected data regarding postoperative prescription size, opioid consumption and patient-reported outcomes from February 2017 to May 2019, from a 70-hospital surgical collaborative. Three iterations of prescribing guidelines were released. An interrupted time series analysis before and after each guideline release was performed. Linear regression was used to identify trends in consumption and patient-reported outcomes over time. RESULTS: We included 36 022 patients from 69 hospitals who underwent one of nine procedures in the guidelines, of which 15 174 (37.3%) had complete patient-reported outcomes data following surgery. Before the intervention, prescription size was decreasing over time (slope: -0.7 tablets of 5 mg oxycodone/month, 95% CI -1.0 to -0.5 tablets, p<0.001). After the first guideline release, prescription size declined by -1.4 tablets/month (95% CI -1.8 to -1.0 tablets, p<0.001). The difference between these slopes was significant (p=0.006). The second guideline release resulted in a relative increase in slope (-0.3 tablets/month, 95% CI -0.1 to -0.6, p<0.001). The third guideline release resulted in no change (p=0.563 for the intervention). Overall, mean (SD) prescription size decreased from 25 (17) tablets of 5 mg oxycodone to 12 (8) tablets. Opioid consumption also decreased from 11 (16) to 5 (7) tablets (p<0.001), while satisfaction and postoperative pain remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: The use of procedure-specific prescribing guidelines reduced statewide postoperative opioid prescribing by 50% while providing satisfactory pain care. These results demonstrate meaningful impact on opioid prescribing using evidence-based best practices and serve as an example of successful utilisation of a regional health collaborative for quality improvement.

Predicting Progression in Barrett's Esophagus: Development and Validation of the Barrett's Esophagus Assessment of Risk Score (BEAR Score).

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a scoring tool capable of accurately predicting which patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) will progress to dysplasia and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma. BACKGROUND: Endoscopic therapies have emerged capable of eradicating BE with high efficacy and low complication rates, but which patients should receive treatment is still debated. Current knowledge of risk factors is insufficient to allow for the accurate prediction of which patients will progress to dysplasia or adenocarcinoma. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data from a cohort of BE patients over a 13-year period. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to predict progression. A simplified risk of progression (ROP) score was developed from weighted beta coefficients. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap analysis, and model discrimination was assessed using k-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The cohort included 2591 BE patients of which 133 progressed to dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. Multivariable analysis with bootstrap internal validation resulted in 5 variables associated with an increased ROP (age ≥70 years, male sex, lack of proton-pump inhibitor use, segment greater than 3 cm, and history of esophageal candidiasis). Using this model, we developed a simple ROP score between 0 and 8. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed a cutoff of 3 or higher to have a sensitivity and specificity of 70% and 79%, respectively. Patients with a score of 3 or higher had an odds ratio of 9.04 (95% confidence interval 6.06-13.46). The c-statistic obtained from 10-fold cross-validation was 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.79), indicating good overall discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show the development and internal validation of the Barrett's Esophagus Assessment of Risk Score as capable of quantifying the likelihood of progression to dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. The Barrett's Esophagus Assessment of Risk Score can be used clinically to guide treatment decisions in nondysplastic BE patients.