A Canadian Simulation Model for Major Depressive Disorder: Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common, often recurrent condition and a significant driver of healthcare costs. People with MDD often receive pharmacological therapy as the first-line treatment, but the majority of people require more than one medication trial to find one that relieves symptoms without causing intolerable side effects. There is an acute need for more effective interventions to improve patients' remission and quality of life and reduce the condition's economic burden on the healthcare system. Pharmacogenomic (PGx) testing could deliver these objectives, using genomic information to guide prescribing decisions. With an already complex and multifaceted care pathway for MDD, future evaluations of new treatment options require a flexible analytic infrastructure encompassing the entire care pathway. Individual-level simulation models are ideally suited for this purpose. We sought to develop an economic simulation model to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of PGx testing for individuals with major depression. Additionally, the model serves as an analytic infrastructure, simulating the entire patient pathway for those with MDD. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Key stakeholders, including patient partners, clinical experts, researchers, and modelers, designed and developed a discrete-time microsimulation model of the clinical pathways of adults with MDD in British Columbia (BC), including all publicly-funded treatment options and multiple treatment steps. The Simulation Model of Major Depression (SiMMDep) was coded with a modular approach to enhance flexibility. The model was populated using multiple original data analyses conducted with BC administrative data, a systematic review, and an expert panel. The model accommodates newly diagnosed and prevalent adult patients with MDD in BC, with and without PGx-guided treatment. SiMMDep comprises over 1500 parameters in eight modules: entry cohort, demographics, disease progression, treatment, adverse events, hospitalization, costs and quality-adjusted life-years (payoff), and mortality. The model predicts health outcomes and estimates costs from a health system perspective. In addition, the model can incorporate interactive decision nodes to address different implementation strategies for PGx testing (or other interventions) along the clinical pathway. We conducted various forms of model validation (face, internal, and cross-validity) to ensure the correct functioning and expected results of SiMMDep. CONCLUSION: SiMMDep is Canada's first medication-specific, discrete-time microsimulation model for the treatment of MDD. With patient partner collaboration guiding its development, it incorporates realistic care journeys. SiMMDep synthesizes existing information and incorporates provincially-specific data to predict the benefits and costs associated with PGx testing. These predictions estimate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, resource utilization, and health gains of PGx testing compared with the current standard of care. However, the flexible analytic infrastructure can be adapted to support other policy questions and facilitate the rapid synthesis of new data for a broader search for efficiency improvements in the clinical field of depression.

Costs of major depression covered / not covered in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the world's leading causes of disability. Our purpose was to characterize the total costs of MDD and evaluate the degree to which the British Columbia provincial health system meets its objective to protect people from the financial impact of illness. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort study of adults newly diagnosed with MDD between 2015 and 2020 and followed their health system costs over two years. The expenditure proportion of MDD-related, patient paid costs relative to non-subsistence income was estimated, incidences of financial hardship were identified and the slope index of inequality (SII) between the highest and lowest income groups compared across regions. RESULTS: There were 250,855 individuals diagnosed with MDD in British Columbia over the observation period. Costs to the health system totalled >$1.5 billion (2020 CDN), averaging $138/week for the first 12 weeks following a new diagnosis and $65/week to week 52 and $55/week for weeks 53-104 unless MDD was refractory to treatment ($125/week between week 12-52 and $101/week over weeks 53-104). The proportion of MDD-attributable costs not covered by the health system was 2-15x greater than costs covered by the health system, exceeding $700/week for patients with severe MDD or MDD that was refractory to treatment. Population members in lower-income groups and urban homeowners had disadvantages in the distribution of financial protection received by the health system (SII reached - 8.47 and 15.25, respectively); however, financial hardship and inequities were mitigated province-wide if MDD went into remission (SII - 0.07 to 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: MDD-attributable costs to health systems and patients are highest in the first 12 weeks after a new diagnosis. During this time, lower income groups and homeowners in urban areas run the risk of financial hardship.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenomic-guided treatment for major depression.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacogenomic testing to identify variations in genes that influence metabolism of antidepressant medications can enhance efficacy and reduce adverse effects of pharmacotherapy for major depressive disorder. We sought to establish the cost-effectiveness of implementing pharmacogenomic testing to guide prescription of antidepressants. METHODS: We developed a discrete-time microsimulation model of care pathways for major depressive disorder in British Columbia, Canada, to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenomic testing from the public payer's perspective over 20 years. The model included unique patient characteristics (e.g., metabolizer phenotypes) and used estimates derived from systematic reviews, analyses of administrative data (2015-2020) and expert judgment. We estimated incremental costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for a representative cohort of patients with major depressive disorder in BC. RESULTS: Pharmacogenomic testing, if implemented in BC for adult patients with moderate-severe major depressive disorder, was predicted to save the health system $956 million ($4926 per patient) and bring health gains of 0.064 life-years and 0.381 QALYs per patient (12 436 life-years and 74 023 QALYs overall over 20 yr). These savings were mainly driven by slowing or avoiding the transition to refractory (treatment-resistant) depression. Pharmacogenomic-guided care was associated with 37% fewer patients with refractory depression over 20 years. Sensitivity analyses estimated that costs of pharmacogenomic testing would be offset within about 2 years of implementation. INTERPRETATION: Pharmacogenomic testing to guide antidepressant use was estimated to yield population health gains while substantially reducing health system costs. These findings suggest that pharmacogenomic testing offers health systems an opportunity for a major value-promoting investment.

Real-World Cost Effectiveness of a Policy of KRAS Testing to Inform Cetuximab or Panitumumab for Third-Line Therapy of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Cetuximab and panitumumab, two anti-EGFR therapies, are widely used for third-line therapy of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) with wild-type KRAS, but there remains uncertainty around their cost effectiveness. The objective of this analysis was to conduct a real-world cost-effectiveness analysis of the policy change introducing KRAS testing and third-line anti-EGFR therapy mCRC in British Columbia (BC), Canada. METHODS: We conducted secondary analysis of administrative data for a cohort of mCRC patients treated in BC in 2006-2015. Patients potentially eligible for KRAS testing and third-line therapy after the policy change (July 2009) were matched 2:1 to pre-policy patients using genetic matching on propensity score and baseline covariates. Costs and survival time were calculated over an 8-year time horizon, with bootstrapping to characterize uncertainty around endpoints. Cost effectiveness was expressed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and the probability of cost effectiveness at a range of thresholds. RESULTS: The cohort included 1757 mCRC patients (n = 456 pre-policy and n = 1304 post-policy; of those, n = 420 received cetuximab or panitumumab). There was a significant increase in survival and cost following the policy change. Adoption of KRAS testing and anti-EGFR therapy had an ICER of CA$73,759 per life-year gained (LYG) (95% CI 46,133-186,446). In scenario analysis, a reduction in cetuximab and panitumumab cost of at least 50% was required to make the policy change cost effective at a threshold of CA$50,000/LYG. CONCLUSION: A policy of third-line anti-EGFR therapy informed by KRAS testing may be considered cost effective at thresholds above CA$70,000/LYG. Reduction in drug costs, through price discounts or potential future biosimilars, would make anti-EGFR therapy considerably more cost effective. By using real-world data for a large cohort with long follow-up we can assess the value of a policy of KRAS testing and anti-EGFR therapy achieved in practice.

Health system use and outcomes of urgently triaged callers to a nurse-managed telephone service for provincial health information after initiation of supplemental virtual physician assessment: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: British Columbia's 8-1-1 telephone service connects callers with nurses for health care advice. As of Nov. 16, 2020, callers advised by a registered nurse to obtain in-person medical care can be subsequently referred to virtual physicians. We sought to determine health system use and outcomes of 8-1-1 callers urgently triaged by a nurse and subsequently assessed by a virtual physician. METHODS: We identified callers referred to a virtual physician between Nov. 16, 2020, and Apr. 30, 2021. After assessment, virtual physicians assigned callers to 1 of 5 triage dispositions (i.e., go to emergency department [ED] now, see primary care provider within 24 hours, schedule an appointment with a health care provider, try home treatment, other). We linked relevant administrative databases to ascertain subsequent health care use and outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 5937 encounters with virtual physicians involving 5886 8-1-1 callers. Virtual physicians advised 1546 callers (26.0%) to go to the ED immediately, of whom 971 (62.8%) had 1 or more ED visits within 24 hours. Virtual physicians advised 556 (9.4%) callers to seek primary care within 24 hours, of whom 132 (23.7%) had primary care billings within 24 hours. Virtual physicians advised 1773 (29.9%) callers to schedule an appointment with a health care provider, of whom 812 (45.8%) had primary care billings within 7 days. Virtual physicians advised 1834 (30.9%) callers to try a home treatment, of whom 892 (48.6%) had no health system encounters over the next 7 days. Eight (0.1%) callers died within 7 days of assessment with a virtual physician, 5 of whom were advised to go to the ED immediately. Fifty-four (2.9%) callers with a "try home treatment" disposition were admitted to hospital within 7 days of a virtual physician assessment, and no callers who were advised home treatment died. INTERPRETATION: This Canadian study evaluated health service use and outcomes arising from the addition of virtual physicians to a provincial health information telephone service. Our findings suggest that supplementation of this service with an assessment from a virtual physician safely reduces the overall proportion of callers advised to seek urgent in-person visits.

A Systematic Review of Kidney Transplantation Decision Modelling Studies.

BACKGROUND: Genome-based precision medicine strategies promise to minimize premature graft loss after renal transplantation, through precision approaches to immune compatibility matching between kidney donors and recipients. The potential adoption of this technology calls for important changes to clinical management processes and allocation policy. Such potential policy change decisions may be supported by decision models from health economics, comparative effectiveness research and operations management. OBJECTIVE: We used a systematic approach to identify and extract information about models published in the kidney transplantation literature and provide an overview of the status of our collective model-based knowledge about the kidney transplant process. METHODS: Database searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and other sources, for reviews and primary studies. We reviewed all English-language papers that presented a model that could be a tool to support decision making in kidney transplantation. Data were extracted on the clinical context and modelling methods used. RESULTS: A total of 144 studies were included, most of which focused on a single component of the transplantation process, such as immunosuppressive therapy or donor-recipient matching and organ allocation policies. Pre- and post-transplant processes have rarely been modelled together. CONCLUSION: A whole-disease modelling approach is preferred to inform precision medicine policy, given its potential upstream implementation in the treatment pathway. This requires consideration of pre- and post-transplant natural history, risk factors for allograft dysfunction and failure, and other post-transplant outcomes. Our call is for greater collaboration across disciplines and whole-disease modelling approaches to more accurately simulate complex policy decisions about the integration of precision medicine tools in kidney transplantation.

Tools for the Economic Evaluation of Precision Medicine: A Scoping Review of Frameworks for Valuing Heterogeneity-Informed Decisions.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Precision medicine highlights the importance of exploring heterogeneity in the effectiveness and costs of interventions. Our objective was to identify and compare frameworks for valuing heterogeneity-informed decisions, and consider their strengths and weaknesses for application to precision medicine. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review to identify papers that proposed an analytical framework to place a value, in terms of costs and health benefits, on using heterogeneity to inform treatment selection. The search included English-language papers indexed in MEDLINE, Embase or EconLit, and a manual review of references and citations. We compared the frameworks qualitatively considering: the purpose and setting of the analysis; the types of precision medicine interventions where the framework could be applied; and the framework's ability to address the methodological challenges of evaluating precision medicine. RESULTS: Four analytical frameworks were identified: value of stratification, value of heterogeneity, expected value of individualised care and loss with respect to efficient diffusion. Each framework is suited to slightly different settings and research questions. All focus on maximising net benefit, and quantify the opportunity cost of ignoring heterogeneity by comparing individualised or stratified decisions to a means-based population-wide decision. Where the frameworks differ is in their approaches to uncertainty, and in the additional metrics they consider. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying and utilising heterogeneity is at the core of precision medicine, and the ability to quantify the value of heterogeneity-informed decisions is critical. Using an analytical framework to value heterogeneity will help provide evidence to inform investment in precision medicine interventions, appropriately capturing the value of targeted health interventions.

An economic valuation technique identified different inpatient care experience as priorities for older Canadians than a traditional approach.

OBJECTIVES: To (1) estimate the relative value of older adults' healthcare experiences based on the Canadian Patient Experience Survey for Inpatient Care (CPES-IC) using an economic valuation technique, and (2) compare the results with those of a conventional key-driver analysis of healthcare experiences based on bivariate correlations. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: An online survey of 1,074 Canadians aged 60 and older who had been hospitalized within five years. Participants completed the CPES-IC and a best-worst scaling (BWS) valuation task. BWS data were analyzed using a conditional logit model. These results were compared to a conventional key-driver analysis that estimates importance through Spearman's correlations between experiences and a global rating of overall experience. RESULTS: The valuation approach found that the three experiences most valued by patients were: that staff seemed informed and up-to-date about their hospital care, doctors explained things in a way that they could understand, and that they got all the information they needed about their care and treatment. Three of the top five most valued experiences from the valuation approach were among the top five in the key driver analysis. However, there were noteworthy differences in rank order. CONCLUSION: The results of the valuation exercise can inform local and/or system level quality improvement efforts by identifying priorities from an economic evaluation point of view, which are different than those based on a conventional key-driver analysis. Given the degree of uncertainty in estimates both the rank order and confidence intervals should be used to guide decision-making.

Describing practices of priority setting and resource allocation in publicly funded health care systems of high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare spending has grown over the last decades in all developed countries. Making hard choices for investments in a rational, evidence-informed, systematic, transparent and legitimate manner constitutes an important objective. Yet, most scientific work in this area has focused on developing/improving prescriptive approaches for decision making and presenting case studies. The present work aimed to describe existing practices of priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) within the context of publicly funded health care systems of high-income countries and inform areas for further improvement and research. METHODS: An online qualitative survey, developed from a theoretical framework, was administered with decision-makers and academics from 18 countries. 450 individuals were invited and 58 participated (13% of response rate). RESULTS: We found evidence that resource allocation is still largely carried out based on historical patterns and through ad hoc decisions, despite the widely held understanding that decisions should be based on multiple explicit criteria. Health technology assessment (HTA) was the tool most commonly indicated by respondents as a formal priority setting strategy. Several approaches were reported to have been used, with special emphasis on Program Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA), but limited evidence exists on their evaluation and routine use. Disinvestment frameworks are still very rare. There is increasing convergence on the use of multiple types of evidence to judge the value of investment options. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to establish formal and explicit processes and rationales for decision-making in priority setting and resource allocation have been still rare outside the HTA realm. Our work indicates the need of development/improvement of decision-making frameworks in PSRA that: 1) have well-defined steps; 2) are based on multiple criteria; 3) are capable of assessing the opportunity costs involved; 4) focus on achieving higher value and not just on adoption; 5) engage involved stakeholders and the general public; 6) make good use and appraisal of all evidence available; and 6) emphasize transparency, legitimacy, and fairness.

A framework for action to improve patient and public involvement in health technology assessment.

BACKGROUND: Patient and public involvement (PPI) in the Brazilian Health Technology Assessment (HTA) process occurs in response to a legislative mandate for "social participation." This resulted in some limited patient participation activities, and, therefore, a more systematic approach was needed. The study describes the development of a suggested framework for action to improve PPI in HTA. METHODS: This work used formal methodology to develop a PPI framework based on three-phase mixed-methods research with desktop review of Brazilian PPI activities in HTA; workshop, survey, and interviews with Brazilian stakeholders; and a rapid review of international practices to enact effective patient involvement. Patient partners reviewed the draft framework. RESULTS: According to patient group representatives, their involvement in the Brazilian HTA process is important but could be improved. Different stakeholders perceived barriers, identified values, and made suggestions for improvement, such as expansion of communication, capacity building, and transparency, to support more meaningful patient involvement. The international practices identified opportunities for earlier, more active, and collaborative PPI during all HTA stages, based on values and principles that are relevant for Brazilian patients and the public. These findings were synthesized to design a framework that defines and systematizes actions to support PPI in Brazil, highlighting the importance of evaluating these strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Since the publication of this framework, some of its suggestions are being implemented in the Brazilian HTA process to improve PPI. We encourage other HTA organizations to consider a systematic and planned approach with regular evaluation when pursuing or strengthening involvement practices.

Empirical Validity of a Generic, Preference-Based Capability Wellbeing Instrument (ICECAP-A) in the Context of Spinal Cord Injury.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the validity of generic instruments across different clinical contexts is an important area of methodological research in economic evaluation and outcomes measurement. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to examine the empirical validity of a generic, preference-based capability wellbeing instrument (ICECAP-A) in the context of spinal cord injury. METHODS: This study consisted of a secondary analysis of data collected using an online cross-sectional survey. The survey included questions regarding demographics, injury classifications and characteristics, secondary health conditions, quality of life and wellbeing, and functioning in activities of daily living. Analysis comprised the descriptive assessment of Spearman's rank correlations between item-/dimension-level data for the ICECAP-A and four preference-based health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments, and discriminant and convergent validity approaches to examine 21 evidence-informed or theoretically derived constructs. Constructs were defined using participant and injury characteristics and responses to a range of health, wellbeing and functioning outcomes. RESULTS: Three hundred sixty-four individuals completed the survey. Mean index score for the ICECAP-A was 0.761; 12 (3%) individuals reported full capability (upper anchor; score = 1), and there were no reports of zero capabilities (lower anchor; score = 0). The strongest correlations were dominated by items and dimensions on the comparator (HRQoL) instruments that are non-health aspects of quality of life, such as happiness and control over one's life (including self-care). Of 21 hypothesised constructs, 19 were confirmed in statistical tests, the exceptions being the exploratory hypotheses regarding education and age at injury. CONCLUSION: The ICECAP-A is an empirically valid outcome measure for assessing capability wellbeing in people with spinal cord injury living in a community setting. The extent to which the ICECAP-A provides complementary information to preference-based HRQoL instruments is dependent on the comparator.

Cost Effectiveness of Case Detection Strategies for the Early Detection of COPD.

OBJECTIVES: The value of early detection and treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently unknown. We assessed the cost effectiveness of primary care-based case detection strategies for COPD. METHODS: A previously validated discrete event simulation model of the general population of COPD patients in Canada was used to assess the cost effectiveness of 16 case detection strategies. In these strategies, eligible patients (based on age, smoking history, or symptoms) received the COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire (CDQ) or screening spirometry, at 3- or 5-year intervals, during routine visits to a primary care physician. Newly diagnosed patients received treatment for smoking cessation and guideline-based inhaler pharmacotherapy. Analyses were conducted over a 20-year time horizon from the healthcare payer perspective. Costs are in 2019 Canadian dollars ($). Key treatment parameters were varied in one-way sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared to no case detection, all 16 case detection scenarios had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below $50,000/QALY gained. In the most efficient scenario, all patients aged ≥ 40 years received the CDQ at 3-year intervals. This scenario was associated with an incremental cost of $287 and incremental effectiveness of 0.015 QALYs per eligible patient over the 20-year time horizon, resulting in an ICER of $19,632/QALY compared to no case detection. Results were most sensitive to the impact of treatment on the symptoms of newly diagnosed patients. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care-based case detection programs for COPD are likely to be cost effective if there is adherence to best-practice recommendations for treatment, which can alleviate symptoms in newly diagnosed patients.

A research agenda to improve patients' experience of knee replacement surgery: a patient-oriented modified Delphi study of patients of South Asian origin in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: Up to 1 in 5 patients who undergo total knee arthroplasty (TKA) express dissatisfaction with their surgery. Our goal was to understand the experiences of patients of South Asian origin who undergo TKA and to identify a research agenda for this patient population. METHODS: We undertook a modified Delphi study in British Columbia to generate and prioritize potential research topics. An initial list of topics was generated using 3 focus groups with patients of South Asian origin who underwent TKA and their caregivers. Focus group sessions were audiotaped and transcribed, and the data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The resulting Delphi question-naire was administered over 2 rounds to patients, caregivers and health professionals. The second-round questionnaire included only topics that were strongly supported in the first round. A patient-oriented approach was adopted, with 3 patient partners as full research team members, who contributed to scoping, design, data collection, analysis and interpretation. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients who had undergone TKA and 6 caregivers attended the focus groups. Our analyses resulted in 6 broad themes and 25 research topics, all of which were presented in the first round of the Delphi survey. The survey was completed by 27 patients and 5 caregivers (54% combined response rate) and by 25 clinicians (76% response rate). Top priorities both for patients and caregivers and for clinicians were promoting exercise following surgery and self-management after hospital discharge. One of the highest ranked topics for patients and caregivers was improving knee implants; this was supported by only 60% of clinicians. INTERPRETATION: The patients and caregivers in our study prioritized research on promotion of exercise and self-management following surgery and improvement in knee implants. Future patient-oriented research efforts in Canada should emphasize these topics for this patient population.

The Introduction of New Non-Drug Health Technologies into Canadian Healthcare Institutions: Opportunities and Challenges.

INTRODUCTION: A recent pan-Canadian survey of 48 health organizations concluded that structures, processes, factors and information used to support funding decisions on new non-drug health technologies (NDTs) vary within and across jurisdictions in Canada. METHODS: A self-administered survey was used to determine demographic and financial characteristics of organizations, followed by in-depth interviews with senior leadership of consenting organizations to understand the processes for making funding decisions on NDTs. RESULTS: Seventy-three and 48 organizations completed self-administered surveys and telephone interviews, respectively (with 45 participating in both ways). Fifty-five different processes were identified, the majority of which addressed capital equipment. Most involved multidisciplinary committees (with medical and non-medical representation), but the types of information used to inform deliberations varied. Across all processes, decision-making criteria included local considerations such as alignment with organizational priorities. CONCLUSIONS: NDT decision-making processes vary in complexity, depending on characteristics of the healthcare organization and context.

Transparency in Decision Modelling: What, Why, Who and How?

Transparency in decision modelling is an evolving concept. Recently, discussion has moved from reporting standards to open-source implementation of decision analytic models. However, in the debate about the supposed advantages and disadvantages of greater transparency, there is a lack of definition. The purpose of this article is not to present a case for or against transparency, but rather to provide a more nuanced understanding of what transparency means in the context of decision modelling and how it could be addressed. To this end, we review and summarise the discourse to date, drawing on our collective experience. We outline a taxonomy of the different manifestations of transparency, including reporting standards, reference models, collaboration, model registration, peer review and open-source modelling. Further, we map out the role and incentives for the various stakeholders, including industry, research organisations, publishers and decision makers. We outline the anticipated advantages and disadvantages of greater transparency with respect to each manifestation, as well as the perceived barriers and facilitators to greater transparency. These are considered with respect to the different stakeholders and with reference to issues including intellectual property, legality, standards, quality assurance, code integrity, health technology assessment processes, incentives, funding, software, access and deployment options, data protection and stakeholder engagement. For each manifestation of transparency, we discuss the 'what', 'why', 'who' and 'how'. Specifically, their meaning, why the community might (or might not) wish to embrace them, whose engagement as stakeholders is required and how relevant objectives might be realised. We identify current initiatives aimed to improve transparency to exemplify efforts in current practice and for the future.

Health Technology Assessment as Part of a Broader Process for Priority Setting and Resource Allocation.

Over the last two decades, economic evaluation of health technologies has developed enormously, affirming its importance within the pursuit of efficiency in the management of health care systems. One concern that has been raised with health technology assessment (HTA) has been its operationalization within the realm of decision making. Here, we suggest a mechanism by which HTA can be understood as an input into a broader framework for priority setting and resource allocation. When HTA is seen in this light, topics that at times have had some lack of clarity, such as public engagement and disinvestment, simply become steps in the overall decision-making process.

Development and Validation of the Evaluation Platform in COPD (EPIC): A Population-Based Outcomes Model of COPD for Canada.

BACKGROUND: We report the development, validation, and implementation of an open-source population-based outcomes model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for Canada. METHODS: Evaluation Platform in COPD (EPIC) is a discrete-event simulation model of Canadians 40 years of age or older. Three core features of EPIC are its open-population design (incorporating projections of future population growth, aging, and smoking trends), its incorporation of heterogeneity in lung function decline and burden of exacerbations, and its modeling of the natural history of COPD from inception. Multiple original data analyses, as well as values reported in the literature, were used to populate the model. Extensive face validity and internal and external validity evaluations were performed. RESULTS: The model was internally validated on demographic projections, mortality rates, lung function trajectories, COPD exacerbations, costs and health state utility values, and stability of COPD prevalence over time within strata of risk factors. In external validation, it moderately overestimated the rate of overall exacerbations in 2 independent trials but generated consistent estimates of rate of severe exacerbations and mortality. LIMITATIONS: In its current version, EPIC does not consider uncertainty in the evidence. Several components such as additional (e.g., environmental and occupational) risk factors, treatment, symptoms, and comorbidity will have to be added in future iterations. Predictive validity of EPIC needs to be examined prospectively against future empirical studies. CONCLUSIONS: EPIC is the first multipurpose, open-source, outcome- and policy-focused model of COPD for Canada. Platforms of this type have the capacity to be iteratively updated to incorporate the latest evidence and to project the outcomes of many different scenarios within a consistent framework.

A comparison of maternal and newborn health services costs in Sindh Pakistan.

Pakistani women suffer the highest rate of maternal mortality in South Asia. A lack of comprehensive knowledge about maternal and newborn health (MNH) services costs impedes policy decisions to maximize the benefit from existing, as well as emerging, MNH interventions in Pakistan. We compared MNH service costs at different levels of care. A cross-sectional survey was conducted during January to March 2016 as part of a large economic evaluation in Sindh, Pakistan. Health providers and facilities were selected from a sampling frame, inclusive of public and private sectors. This study utilized a broad perspective (i.e. costs to the health system and patients/families). The unit costs of MNH services were determined through a simultaneous allocation method in the public facilities; and patient billing department in the private facilities. Descriptive analysis was performed, and an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was applied to compare overall mean costs both within and between health facilities. A total of 31 eligible health providers and facilities (n = 25 in private; n = 7 in public) were included in the final analysis. An ambulatory visit (AV) for routine antenatal care (ANC) costs $3.6 and $0.9 at secondary- and tertiary-level public facilities, respectively. In the private sector, the costs of an AV for ANC were slightly less ($2.8) at secondary-level and much higher ($6) at tertiary-level facilities compared to the public sector. Diagnostic test costs were much higher in private facilities. The average costs of inpatient admissions were $30.5 at general ward (GW), and $151 at the intensive care unit (ICU) in public facilities. In-patient admissions costs were lower such as $9.3 at GW and $36.5 at ICU in private facilities. Understanding cost is critical to guide decisions of resource allocation within the public sector; and risk mitigation for excessive OOP costs through third party payer for services in the private sector.