Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction. METHOD: We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death. FINDINGS: The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care. INTERPRETATION: Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries. FUNDING: All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 4. Precoronavirus Disease 2019 Update January 2012-February 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To provide updated information on the burdens of sepsis during acute inpatient admissions for Medicare beneficiaries. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute-care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, January 2012-February 2020, with an explicit sepsis diagnostic code assigned during an inpatient admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The count of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) plus Medicare Advantage inpatient sepsis admissions rose from 981,027 (CY2012) to 1,700,433 (CY 2019). The proportion of total admissions with sepsis in the Medicare Advantage population rose from 21.43% to 35.39%, reflecting the increasing beneficiary proportion enrolled in Medicare Advantage. In CY2019, 6-month mortality rates in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries for sepsis continued to decline, but remained high: 59.9% for septic shock, 35.5% for severe sepsis, 30.8% for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, and 26.5% for unspecified sepsis. Total fee-for-service-only inpatient hospital costs rose from $17.79B (CY2012) to $22.98B (CY2019). We estimated that the aggregate cost of sepsis hospital care for the entire U.S. population was at least $57.47B in 2019. Inclusion of 14 months' (January 2019-February 2020) newer data exposed new trends: the cost per patient, number of admissions, and fraction of patients with sepsis labeled as present on admission inflected around November 2015, coincident with the change to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, and introduction of the Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) metric. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis among Medicare beneficiaries precoronavirus disease 2019 imposed immense burdens upon patients, their families, and the taxpayers.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1. The Burdens of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To provide contemporary estimates of the burdens (costs and mortality) associated with acute inpatient Medicare beneficiary admissions for sepsis. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Total inpatient hospital and skilled nursing facility admission counts, costs, and mortality over time. From calendar year (CY)2012-CY2018, the total number of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) beneficiaries with an inpatient hospital admission associated with an explicit sepsis code rose from 811,644 to 1,136,889. The total cost of inpatient hospital admission including an explicit sepsis code for those beneficiaries in those calendar years rose from $17,792,657,303 to $22,439,794,212. The total cost of skilled nursing facility care in the 90 days subsequent to an inpatient hospital discharge that included an explicit sepsis code for Medicare Part A/B rose from $3,931,616,160 to $5,623,862,486 over that same interval. Precise costs are not available for Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) patients. Using available federal data sources, we estimated the aggregate cost of inpatient admissions and skilled nursing facility admissions for Medicare Advantage patients to have risen from $6.0 to $13.4 billion over the CY2012-CY2018 interval. Combining data for fee-for-service beneficiaries and estimates for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, we estimate the total inpatient admission sepsis cost and any subsequent skilled nursing facility admission for all (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage) Medicare patients to have risen from $27.7 to $41.5 billion. Contemporary 6-month mortality rates for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with a sepsis inpatient admission remain high: for septic shock, approximately 60%; for severe sepsis, approximately 36%; for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, approximately 31%; and for unspecified sepsis, approximately 27%. CONCLUSION: Sepsis remains common, costly to treat, and presages significant mortality for Medicare beneficiaries.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 2. The Trajectories of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To distinguish characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries who will have an acute inpatient admission for sepsis from those who have an inpatient admission without sepsis, and to describe their further trajectories during and subsequent to those inpatient admissions. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient hospital admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prevalent diagnoses in the year prior to the inpatient admission; healthcare contacts in the week prior to the inpatient admission; discharges, transfers, readmissions, and deaths (trajectories) for 6 months following discharge from the inpatient admission. Beneficiaries with no sepsis inpatient hospital admission for a year prior to an index hospital admission for sepsis were nearly indistinguishable by accumulated diagnostic codes from beneficiaries who had an index hospital admission without sepsis. Although the timing of healthcare services in the week prior to inpatient hospital admission was similar among beneficiaries who would be admitted for sepsis versus those whose inpatient admission did not include a sepsis code, the setting differed: beneficiaries destined for a sepsis admission were more likely to have received skilled nursing or unskilled nursing (e.g., nursing aide for activities of daily living) care. In contrast, comparing beneficiaries who had been free of any inpatient admission for an entire year and then required an inpatient admission, acute inpatient stays that included a sepsis code led to more than three times as many deaths within 1 week of discharge, with more admissions to skilled nursing facilities and fewer discharges to home. Comparing all beneficiaries who were admitted to a skilled nursing facility after an inpatient hospital admission, those who had sepsis coded during the index admission were more likely to die in the skilled nursing facility; more likely to be readmitted to an acute inpatient hospital and subsequently die in that setting; or if they survive to discharge from the skilled nursing facility, they are more likely to go next to a custodial nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Although Medicare beneficiaries destined for an inpatient hospital admission with a sepsis code are nearly indistinguishable by other diagnostic codes from those whose admissions will not have a sepsis code, their healthcare trajectories following the admission are worse. This suggests that an inpatient stay that included a sepsis code not only identifies beneficiaries who were less resilient to infection but also signals increased risk for worsening health, for mortality, and for increased use of advanced healthcare services during and postdischarge along with an increased likelihood of an inpatient hospital readmission.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of sepsis, age, and comorbidities on death following an acute inpatient admission and to model and forecast inpatient and skilled nursing facility costs for Medicare beneficiaries during and subsequent to an acute inpatient sepsis admission. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project (CMS) and leveraging the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Part A/B (fee-for-service) Medicare beneficiaries with an acute inpatient admission in 2017 and who had no inpatient sepsis admission in the prior year. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression models to determine covariate risk contribution to death following an acute inpatient admission; conventional regression to predict Medicare beneficiary sepsis costs. Using the Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model to illuminate influence of illness on outcome of inpatient admissions, representative odds ratios (with 95% CIs) for death within 6 months of an admission (referenced to beneficiaries admitted but without the characteristic) are as follows: septic shock, 7.27 (7.19-7.35); metastatic cancer and acute leukemia (Hierarchical Condition Category 8), 6.76 (6.71-6.82); all sepsis, 2.63 (2.62-2.65); respiratory arrest (Hierarchical Condition Category 83), 2.55 (2.35-2.77); end-stage liver disease (Hierarchical Condition Category 27), 2.53 (2.49-2.56); and severe sepsis without shock, 2.48 (2.45-2.51). Models of the cost of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries forecast arise approximately 13% over 2 years owing the rising enrollments in Medicare offset by the cost of care per admission. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis inpatient admission is associated with marked increase in risk of death that is comparable to the risks associated with inpatient admissions for other common and serious chronic illnesses. The aggregate costs of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries will continue to increase.

The Uniformed Services University's Surgical Critical Care Initiative (SC2i): Bringing Precision Medicine to the Critically Ill.

Precision medicine endeavors to leverage all available medical data in pursuit of individualized diagnostic and therapeutic plans to improve patient outcomes in a cost-effective manner. Its promise in the field of critical care remains incompletely realized. The Department of Defense has a vested interest in advancing precision medicine for those sent into harm's way and specifically seeks means of individualizing care in the context of complex and highly dynamic combat clinical decision environments. Building on legacy research efforts conducted during the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts, the Uniformed Service University (USU) launched the Surgical Critical Care Initiative (SC2i) in 2013 to develop clinical- and biomarker-driven Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS), with the goals of improving both patient-specific outcomes and resource utilization for conditions with a high risk of morbidity or mortality. Despite technical and regulatory challenges, this military-civilian partnership is beginning to deliver on the promise of personalized care, organizing and analyzing sizable, real-time medical data sets to support complex clinical decision-making across critical and surgical care disciplines. We present the SC2i experience as a generalizable template for the national integration of federal and non-federal research databanks to foster critical and surgical care precision medicine.

The Impact of Enhanced Critical Care Training and 24/7 (Tele-ICU) Support on Medicare Spending and Postdischarge Utilization Patterns.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of implementing a tele-ICU and a critical care residency training program for advanced practice providers on service utilization and total Medicare episode spending. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTINGS: Medicare claims data for fee-for-service beneficiaries at 12 large, inpatient hospitals in the Atlanta Hospital Referral Region. STUDY DESIGN: Difference-in-differences design where changes in spending and utilization for Medicare beneficiaries eligible for treatment in participating ICUs was compared to changes in a comparison group of clinically similar beneficiaries treated at similar hospitals' ICUs in the same hospital referral region. EXTRACTION METHODS: Using Medicare claims data from January 2010 through June 2015, we defined measures of Medicare episode spending during the ICU stay and subsequent 60 days after discharge, and utilization measures within 30 and 60 days after discharge. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Implementation of the advanced practice provider residency program and tele-ICU was associated with a significant reduction in average Medicare spending per episode, primarily driven by reduced readmissions within 60 days and substitution of home health care for institutional postacute care. CONCLUSIONS: Innovations in workforce training and technology specific to the ICU may be useful in addressing the shortage of intensivist physicians, yielding benefits to patients and payers.

Serial Daily Organ Failure Assessment Beyond ICU Day 5 Does Not Independently Add Precision to ICU Risk-of-Death Prediction.

OBJECTIVES: To identify circumstances in which repeated measures of organ failure would improve mortality prediction in ICU patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, with external validation in a deidentified ICU database. SETTING: Eleven ICUs in three university hospitals within an academic healthcare system in 2014. PATIENTS: Adults (18 yr old or older) who satisfied the following criteria: 1) two of four systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus an ordered blood culture, all within 24 hours of hospital admission; and 2) ICU admission for at least 2 calendar days, within 72 hours of emergency department presentation. INTERVENTION: NoneMEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Data were collected until death, ICU discharge, or the seventh ICU day, whichever came first. The highest Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score from the ICU admission day (ICU day 1) was included in a multivariable model controlling for other covariates. The worst Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores from the first 7 days after ICU admission were incrementally added and retained if they obtained statistical significance (p < 0.05). The cohort was divided into seven subcohorts to facilitate statistical comparison using the integrated discriminatory index. Of the 1,290 derivation cohort patients, 83 patients (6.4%) died in the ICU, compared with 949 of the 8,441 patients (11.2%) in the validation cohort. Incremental addition of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment data up to ICU day 5 improved the integrated discriminatory index in the validation cohort. Adding ICU day 6 or 7 Sequential Organ Failure Assessment data did not further improve model performance. CONCLUSIONS: Serial organ failure data improve prediction of ICU mortality, but a point exists after which further data no longer improve ICU mortality prediction of early sepsis.

Filtering authentic sepsis arising in the ICU using administrative codes coupled to a SIRS screening protocol.

PURPOSE: Using administrative codes and minimal physiologic and laboratory data, we sought a high-specificity identification strategy for patients whose sepsis initially appeared during their ICU stay. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied all patients discharged from an academic hospital between September 1, 2013 and October 31, 2014. Administrative codes and minimal physiologic and laboratory criteria were used to identify patients at high risk of developing the onset of sepsis in the ICU. Two clinicians then independently reviewed the patient record to verify that the screened-in patients appeared to become septic during their ICU admission. RESULTS: Clinical chart review verified sepsis in 437/466 ICU stays (93.8%). Of these 437 encounters, only 151 (34.6%) were admitted to the ICU with neither SIRS nor evidence of infection and therefore appeared to become septic during their ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS: Selected administrative codes coupled to SIRS criteria and applied to patients admitted to ICU can yield up to 94% authentic sepsis patients. However, only 1/3 of patients thus identified appeared to become septic during their ICU stay. Studies that depend on high-intensity monitoring for description of the time course of sepsis require clinician review and verification that sepsis initially appeared during the monitoring period.

Precision diagnosis: a view of the clinical decision support systems (CDSS) landscape through the lens of critical care.

Improving diagnosis and treatment depends on clinical monitoring and computing. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) have been in existence for over 50 years. While the literature points to positive impacts on quality and patient safety, outcomes, and the avoidance of medical errors, technical and regulatory challenges continue to retard their rate of integration into clinical care processes and thus delay the refinement of diagnoses towards personalized care. We conducted a systematic review of pertinent articles in the MEDLINE, US Department of Health and Human Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, and US Food and Drug Administration databases, using a Boolean approach to combine terms germane to the discussion (clinical decision support, tools, systems, critical care, trauma, outcome, cost savings, NSQIP, APACHE, SOFA, ICU, and diagnostics). References were selected on the basis of both temporal and thematic relevance, and subsequently aggregated around four distinct themes: the uses of CDSS in the critical and surgical care settings, clinical insertion challenges, utilization leading to cost-savings, and regulatory concerns. Precision diagnosis is the accurate and timely explanation of each patient's health problem and further requires communication of that explanation to patients and surrogate decision-makers. Both accuracy and timeliness are essential to critical care, yet computed decision support systems (CDSS) are scarce. The limitation arises from the technical complexity associated with integrating and filtering large data sets from diverse sources. Provider mistrust and resistance coupled with the absence of clear guidance from regulatory bodies further retard acceptance of CDSS. While challenges to develop and deploy CDSS are substantial, the clinical, quality, and economic impacts warrant the effort, especially in disciplines requiring complex decision-making, such as critical and surgical care. Improving diagnosis in health care requires accumulation, validation and transformation of data into actionable information. The aggregate of those processes-CDSS-is currently primitive. Despite technical and regulatory challenges, the apparent clinical and economic utilities of CDSS must lead to greater engagement. These tools play the key role in realizing the vision of a more 'personalized medicine', one characterized by individualized precision diagnosis rather than population-based risk-stratification.

Impact of a Sequential Intervention on Albumin Utilization in Critical Care.

OBJECTIVES: Literature generally finds no advantages in mortality risk for albumin over cheaper alternatives in many settings. Few studies have combined financial and nonfinancial strategies to reduce albumin overuse. We evaluated the effect of a sequential multifaceted intervention on decreasing albumin use in ICU and explore the effects of different strategies. DESIGN: Prospective prepost cohort study. SETTING: Eight ICUs at two hospitals in an academic healthcare system. PATIENTS: Adult patients admitted to study ICUs from September 2011 to August 2014 (n = 22,004). INTERVENTIONS: Over 2 years, providers in study ICUs participated in an intervention to reduce albumin use involving monthly feedback and explicit financial incentives in the first year and internal guidelines and order process changes in the second year. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes measured were albumin orders per ICU admission, direct albumin costs, and mortality. Mean (SD) utilization decreased 37% from 2.7 orders (6.8) per admission during the baseline to 1.7 orders (4.6) during the intervention (p < 0.001). Regression analysis revealed that the intervention was independently associated with 0.9 fewer orders per admission, a 42% relative decrease. This adjusted effect consisted of an 18% reduction in the probability of using any albumin (p < 0.001) and a 29% reduction in the number of orders per admission among patients receiving any (p < 0.001). Secondary analysis revealed that probability reductions were concurrent with internal guidelines and order process modification while reductions in quantity occurred largely during the financial incentives and feedback period. Estimated cost savings totaled $2.5M during the 2-year intervention. There was no significant difference in ICU or hospital mortality between baseline and intervention. CONCLUSIONS: A sequential intervention achieved significant reductions in ICU albumin use and cost savings without changes in patient outcomes, supporting the combination of financial and nonfinancial strategies to align providers with evidence-based practices.

Feasibility and economic impact of dedicated hospice inpatient units for terminally ill ICU patients.

OBJECTIVES: End-of-life care is frequently provided in the ICU because patients receiving life-sustaining treatments are often unsuitable for transfer to home or community hospices. In-hospital dedicated hospice inpatient units are a novel option. This study was designed to 1) demonstrate the feasibility of ICU to dedicated hospice inpatient unit transfer in critically ill terminal patients; 2) describe the clinical characteristics of those transferred and compare them to similar patients who were not transferred; and 3) assess the operational and economic impact of dedicated hospice inpatient units. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review. SETTING: ICUs and dedicated hospice inpatient units at two southeast urban university hospitals. INTERVENTIONS: Charts of ICU and dedicated hospice inpatient unit deaths over a 6-month period were reviewed. PATIENTS: Dedicated hospice inpatient unit transfers were identified from hospice administrator records. Missed opportunities were patients admitted to the hospital for more than 48 hours who either adopted a comfort care course or had a planned termination of life-sustaining therapy. Patients were excluded if they were declared brain dead, were organ donors, required high-frequency ventilation, or if there was insufficient information in the medical record to make a determination. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified 167 transfers and 99 missed opportunities; 37% of appropriate patients were not transferred. Transfers were older (66.9 vs 60.4 yr; p < 0.05), less likely to use mechanical ventilation (71.9% vs 90.9%) and vasopressors (70.9% vs 95.0%; p < 0.05), and less likely to receive a palliative care consult (70.4% vs 43.4%; p < 0.05) than missed opportunities. Transfers saved 585 ICU bed days. CONCLUSIONS: Dedicated hospice inpatient units are a feasible way to provide care for terminal ICU patients, but barriers including lack of knowledge of the units and provider or family comfort with leaving the ICU remain. Dedicated hospice inpatient units are potentially significant sources of bed days and cost savings for hospitals and the healthcare system overall.

The turn team: a novel strategy for reducing pressure ulcers in the surgical intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Pressure ulcers cause significant morbidity and mortality in the surgical intensive care unit (SICU). The purpose of this study was to determine if a dedicated team tasked with turning and repositioning all hemodynamically stable SICU patients could decrease the formation of pressure ulcers. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 507 patients in a 20-bed SICU in a university hospital were assessed for pressure ulcers using a point prevalence strategy, between December 2008 and September 2010, before and after implementation of a team tasked with turning and repositioning all hemodynamically stable patients every 2 hours around the clock. RESULTS: At baseline, when frequent turning was encouraged but not required, a total of 42 pressure ulcers were identified in 278 patients. After implementation of the turn team, a total of 12 pressure ulcers were identified in 229 patients (p < 0.0001). The preintervention group included 34 stage I and II ulcers and 8 higher stage ulcers. After implementation of the turn team, there were 7 stage I and II ulcers and 5 higher stage ulcers. The average Braden score was 16.5 in the preintervention group and 13.4 in the postintervention group (p = 0.04), suggesting that pressure ulcers were occurring in higher risk patients after implementation of the turn team. CONCLUSIONS: A team dedicated to turning SICU patients every 2 hours dramatically decreased the incidence of pressure ulcers. The majority of stage I and stage II ulcers appear to be preventable with an aggressive intervention aimed at pressure ulcer prevention.

Patient-care time allocation by nurse practitioners and physician assistants in the intensive care unit.

INTRODUCTION: Use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants ("affiliates") is increasing significantly in the intensive care unit (ICU). Despite this, few data exist on how affiliates allocate their time in the ICU. The purpose of this study was to understand the allocation of affiliate time into patient-care and non-patient-care activity, further dividing the time devoted to patient care into billable service and equally important but nonbillable care. METHODS: We conducted a quasi experimental study in seven ICUs in an academic hospital and a hybrid academic/community hospital. After a period of self-reporting, a one-time monetary incentive of $2,500 was offered to 39 affiliates in each ICU in which every affiliate documented greater than 75% of their time devoted to patient care over a 6-month period in an effort to understand how affiliates allocated their time throughout a shift. Documentation included billable time (critical care, evaluation and management, procedures) and a new category ("zero charge time"), which facilitated record keeping of other patient-care activities. RESULTS: At baseline, no ICUs had documentation of 75% patient-care time by all of its affiliates. In the 6 months in which reporting was tied to a group incentive, six of seven ICUs had every affiliate document greater than 75% of their time. Individual time documentation increased from 53% to 84%. Zero-charge time accounted for an average of 21% of each shift. The most common reason was rounding, which accounted for nearly half of all zero-charge time. Sign out, chart review, and teaching were the next most common zero-charge activities. Documentation of time spent on billable activities also increased from 53% of an affiliate's shift to 63%. Time documentation was similar regardless of during which shift an affiliate worked. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately two thirds of an affiliate's shift is spent providing billable services to patients. Greater than 20% of each shift is spent providing equally important but not reimbursable patient care. Understanding how affiliates spend their time and what proportion of time is spent in billable activities can be used to plan the financial impact of staffing ICUs with affiliates.

Recovery at the edge of error: debunking the myth of the infallible expert.

The notion that human error should not be tolerated is prevalent in both the public and personal perception of the performance of clinicians. However, researchers in other safety-critical domains have long since abandoned the quest for zero defects as an impractical goal, choosing to focus instead on the development of strategies to enhance the ability to recover from error. This paper presents a cognitive framework for the study of error recovery, and the results of our empirical research into error detection and recovery in the critical care domain, using both laboratory-based and naturalistic approaches. Both attending physicians and residents were prone to commit, detect and recover from errors, but the nature of these errors was different. Experts corrected the errors as soon as they detected them and were better able to detect errors requiring integration of multiple elements in the case. Residents were more cautious in making decisions showing a slower error recovery pattern, and the detected errors were more procedural in nature with specific patient outcomes. Error detection and correction are shown to be dependent on expertise, and on the nature of the everyday tasks of the clinicians concerned. Understanding the limits and failures of human decision-making is important if we are to build robust decision-support systems to manage the boundaries of risk of error in decision-making. Detection and correction of potential error is an integral part of cognitive work in the complex, critical care workplace.