Impact of Kenya's Frontline Epidemiology Training Program on Outbreak Detection and Surveillance Reporting: A Geographical Assessment, 2014-2017.

Rapid detection and response to infectious disease outbreaks requires a robust surveillance system with a sufficient number of trained public health workforce personnel. The Frontline Field Epidemiology Training Program (Frontline) is a focused 3-month program targeting local ministries of health to strengthen local disease surveillance and reporting capacities. Limited literature exists on the impact of Frontline graduates on disease surveillance completeness and timeliness reporting. Using routinely collected Ministry of Health data, we mapped the distribution of graduates between 2014 and 2017 across 47 Kenyan counties. Completeness was defined as the proportion of complete reports received from health facilities in a county compared with the total number of health facilities in that county. Timeliness was defined as the proportion of health facilities submitting surveillance reports on time to the county. Using a panel analysis and controlling for county-fixed effects, we evaluated the relationship between the number of Frontline graduates and priority disease reporting of measles. We found that Frontline training was correlated with improved completeness and timeliness of weekly reporting for priority diseases. The number of Frontline graduates increased by 700%, from 57 graduates in 2014 to 456 graduates in 2017. The annual average rates of reporting completeness increased from 0.8% in 2014 to 55.1% in 2017. The annual average timeliness reporting rates increased from 0.1% in 2014 to 40.5% in 2017. These findings demonstrate how global health security implementation progress in workforce development may influence surveillance and disease reporting.

Barriers and facilitators to reporting deaths following Ebola surveillance in Sierra Leone: implications for sustainable mortality surveillance based on an exploratory qualitative assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the barriers contributing to the more than threefold decline in the number of deaths (of all causes) reported to a national toll free telephone line (1-1-7) after the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak ended in Sierra Leone and explore opportunities for improving routine death reporting as part of a nationwide mortality surveillance system. DESIGN: An exploratory qualitative assessment comprising 32 in-depth interviews (16 in Kenema district and 16 in Western Area). All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using qualitative content analysis to identify themes. SETTING: Participants were selected from urban and rural communities in two districts that experienced varying levels of Ebola cases during the outbreak. All interviews were conducted in August 2017 in the post-Ebola-outbreak context in Sierra Leone when the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation was continuing to mandate reporting of all deaths. PARTICIPANTS: Family members of deceased persons whose deaths were not reported to the 1-1-7 system. RESULTS: Death reporting barriers were driven by the lack of awareness to report all deaths, lack of services linked to reporting, negative experiences from the Ebola outbreak including prohibition of traditional burial rituals, perception that inevitable deaths do not need to be reported and situations where prompt burials may be needed. Facilitators of future willingness to report deaths were largely influenced by the perceived communicability and severity of the disease, unexplained circumstances of the death that need investigation and the potential to leverage existing death notification practices through local leaders. CONCLUSIONS: Social mobilisation and risk communication efforts are needed to help the public understand the importance and benefits of sustained and ongoing death reporting after an Ebola outbreak. Localised practices for informal death notification through community leaders could be integrated into the formal reporting system to capture community-based deaths that may otherwise be missed.

Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment.

Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports-supported U.S. jobs, 2005-2016. Estimates were obtained using difference-in-differences models where sub-Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time-variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola-affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports-supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.

We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic-related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from $16 million to $27 million (1 country) to $10 million to $18 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source.

Relevance of Global Health Security to the US Export Economy.

To reduce the health security risk and impact of outbreaks around the world, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its partners are building capabilities to prevent, detect, and contain outbreaks in 49 global health security priority countries. We examine the extent of economic vulnerability to the US export economy posed by trade disruptions in these 49 countries. Using 2015 US Department of Commerce data, we assessed the value of US exports and the number of US jobs supported by those exports. US exports to the 49 countries exceeded $308 billion and supported more than 1.6 million jobs across all US states in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, oil and gas, services, and other sectors. These exports represented 13.7% of all US export revenue worldwide and 14.3% of all US jobs supported by all US exports. The economic linkages between the United States and these global health security priority countries illustrate the importance of ensuring that countries have the public health capacities needed to control outbreaks at their source before they become pandemics.

Vital signs: disparities in nonsmokers' exposure to secondhand smoke--United States, 1999-2012.

Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) from burning tobacco products causes sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), respiratory infections, ear infections, and asthma attacks in infants and children, and coronary heart disease, stroke, and lung cancer in adult nonsmokers. No risk-free level of SHS exposure exists. SHS exposure causes more than 41,000 deaths among nonsmoking adults and 400 deaths in infants each year, and approximately $5.6 billion annually in lost productivity. Although population exposure to SHS has declined over the past 2 decades, many nonsmokers remain exposed to SHS in workplaces, public places, homes, and vehicles.