Objective sputum colour assessment and clinical outcomes in bronchiectasis: data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

BACKGROUND: A validated 4-point sputum colour chart can be used to objectively evaluate the levels of airway inflammation in bronchiectasis patients. In the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC), we tested whether sputum colour would be associated with disease severity and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We used a prospective, observational registry of adults with bronchiectasis conducted in 31 countries. Patients who did not produce spontaneous sputum were excluded from the analysis. The Murray sputum colour chart was used at baseline and at follow-up visits. Key outcomes were frequency of exacerbations, hospitalisations for severe exacerbations and mortality during up to 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: 13 484 patients were included in the analysis. More purulent sputum was associated with lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), worse quality of life, greater bacterial infection and a higher bronchiectasis severity index. Sputum colour was strongly associated with the risk of future exacerbations during follow-up. Compared to patients with mucoid sputum (reference group), patients with mucopurulent sputum experienced significantly more exacerbations (incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.38; p<0.0001), while the rates were even higher for patients with purulent (IRR 1.55, 95% CI 1.44-1.67; p<0.0001) and severely purulent sputum (IRR 1.91, 95% CI 1.52-2.39; p<0.0001). Hospitalisations for severe exacerbations were also associated with increasing sputum colour with rate ratios, compared to patients with mucoid sputum, of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.56; p<0.0001), 1.98 (95% CI 1.77-2.21; p<0.0001) and 3.05 (95% CI 2.25-4.14; p<0.0001) for mucopurulent, purulent and severely purulent sputum, respectively. Mortality was significantly increased with increasing sputum purulence, hazard ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24; p=0.027), for each increment in sputum purulence. CONCLUSION: Sputum colour is a simple marker of disease severity and future risk of exacerbations, severe exacerbations and mortality in patients with bronchiectasis.

Effect of COVID-19 on Bronchiectasis Exacerbation Rates: A Retrospective U.S. Insurance Claims Study.

Rationale: Bronchiectasis is a chronic, progressive disease of bronchial dilation, inflammation, and scarring leading to impaired mucociliary clearance and increased susceptibility to infection. Identified causes include previous severe respiratory infections. A small, single-center UK study demonstrated a reduction in bronchiectasis exacerbations during the first year of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. No studies have been conducted in a U.S. (commercially insured) cohort to date. Objectives: To explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of exacerbations in a large cohort of commercially insured U.S. patients with bronchiectasis by testing the hypothesis that U.S. patients with bronchiectasis had fewer exacerbations during the pandemic. Methods: This retrospective observational cohort study used health insurance claims data from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart database, which included U.S. patients and their covered dependents. Eligible patients were ⩾18 years of age with bronchiectasis; patients with other respiratory conditions were excluded. The main study cohort excluded patients with frequent asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnoses. The primary objective was to compare the bronchiectasis exacerbation rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: The median number of exacerbations per patient per year decreased significantly from the year before the COVID-19 pandemic to the first year of the pandemic (1 vs. 0; P < 0.01). More patients had zero exacerbations during the first year of the pandemic than the year prior (57% vs. 24%; McNemar's chi-square = 122.56; P < 0.01). Conclusions: In a U.S. population-based study of patients with International Classification of Diseases codes for bronchiectasis, the rate of exacerbations during Year 1 of the COVID-19 pandemic was reduced compared with the 2-year time period preceding the pandemic.

Dual bronchodilators in Bronchiectasis study (DIBS): protocol for a pragmatic, multicentre, placebo-controlled, three-arm, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial studying bronchodilators in preventing exacerbations of bronchiectasis.

INTRODUCTION: Bronchiectasis is a long-term lung condition, with dilated bronchi, chronic inflammation, chronic infection and acute exacerbations. Recurrent exacerbations are associated with poorer clinical outcomes such as increased severity of lung disease, further exacerbations, hospitalisations, reduced quality of life and increased risk of death. Despite an increasing prevalence of bronchiectasis, there is a critical lack of high-quality studies into the disease and no treatments specifically approved for its treatment. This trial aims to establish whether inhaled dual bronchodilators (long acting beta agonist (LABA) and long acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)) taken as either a stand-alone therapy or in combination with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) reduce the number of exacerbations of bronchiectasis requiring treatment with antibiotics during a 12 month treatment period. METHODS: This is a multicentre, pragmatic, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, incorporating an internal pilot and embedded economic evaluation. 600 adult patients (≥18 years) with CT confirmed bronchiectasis will be recruited and randomised to either inhaled dual therapy (LABA+LAMA), triple therapy (LABA+LAMA+ICS) or matched placebo, in a 2:2:1 ratio (respectively). The primary outcome is the number of protocol defined exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics during the 12 month treatment period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Favourable ethical opinion was received from the North East-Newcastle and North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/NE/0020). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications, at national and international conferences, in the NIHR Health Technology Assessments journal and to participants and the public (using lay language). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15988757.

The Economic Burden of Bronchiectasis: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis, a previously neglected condition, now has renewed research interest. There are a few systematic reviews that have reported on the economic and societal burden of bronchiectasis in adults, but none have reported on children. We undertook this systematic review to estimate the economic burden of bronchiectasis in children and adults. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the health care resource utilization and economic burden of bronchiectasis in adults and children? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a systematic review identifying publications from Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane (trials, reviews, and editorials), and EconLit about the economic burden and health care utilization in adults and children with bronchiectasis between January 1, 2001, and October 10, 2022. We used a narrative synthesis approach and estimated aggregate costs for several countries. RESULTS: We identified 53 publications reporting on the economic burden and/or health care utilization of people with bronchiectasis. Total annual health care costs per adult patient ranged from 2021 $3,579 to $82,545 USD and were predominantly driven by hospitalization costs. Annual indirect costs including lost income because of illness (reported in only five studies) ranged from $1,311 to $2,898 USD. Total health care costs in children with bronchiectasis were $23,687 USD annually in the one study that estimated them. Additionally, one publication found that children with bronchiectasis missed 12 school days per year. We estimated aggregate annual health care costs for nine countries, ranging from $101.6 million per year in Singapore to $14.68 billion per year in the United States. We also estimated the aggregate cost of bronchiectasis in Australian children to be $17.77 million per year. INTERPRETATION: This review highlights the substantial economic burden of bronchiectasis for patients and health systems. To our knowledge, it is the first systematic review to include the costs for children with bronchiectasis and their families. Future research to examine the economic impact of bronchiectasis in children and economically disadvantaged communities, and to further understand the indirect burden of bronchiectasis on individuals and the community, is needed.

Benefit-risk assessment of brensocatib for treatment of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

Brensocatib is a novel anti-inflammatory therapy in development for bronchiectasis treatment. Phase 2 WILLOW trial data demonstrate a low number needed to treat and negative number needed to harm, suggesting a favourable benefit-risk profile. https://bit.ly/3SbisW3.

Clinical and financial burden of hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia in patients with selected underlying comorbidities in England.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalised pneumonia may have long-term clinical and financial impact in adult patients with underlying comorbidities. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database to determine the clinical and financial burden over 3 years of hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) to England's National Health Service (NHS). Subjects were adults with six underlying comorbidities (chronic heart disease (CHD); chronic kidney disease (CKD); chronic liver disease (CLD); chronic respiratory disease (CRD); diabetes mellitus (DM) and post bone marrow transplant (post-BMT)) with an inpatient admission in 2012/2013. Patients with CAP in 2013/2014 were followed for 3 years and compared with similarly aged, propensity score-matched adults with the same comorbidity without CAP. FINDINGS: The RR of hospital admissions increased after CAP, ranging from 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.12) for CKD to 1.38 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.40) for CRD. This increase was maintained for at least 2 years. Mean difference in hospital healthcare costs (£) was higher for CAP patients in 2013/2014; ranging from £1115 for DM to £8444 for BMT, and remained higher for 4/6 groups for 2 more years, ranging from £1907 (95% CI £1573 to £2240) for DM to £11 167 (95% CI £10 847 to £11 486) for CRD.) The OR for mortality was significantly higher for at least 3 years after CAP, ranging from 4.76 (95% CI 4.12 to 5.51, p<0.0001) for CLD to 7.50 (95%CI 4.71 to 11.92, p<0.0001) for BMT. INTERPRETATION: For patients with selected underlying comorbidities, healthcare utilisation, costs and mortality increase for at least 3 years after being hospitalised CAP.

Validation of the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) as an Outcome Measure in Bronchiectasis.

BACKGROUND: Objective assessment of symptoms in bronchiectasis is important for research and in clinical practice. The COPD Assessment Test (CAT) is a short, simple assessment tool widely used in COPD. The items included in the CAT are not specific to COPD and also reflect the dominant symptoms of bronchiectasis. We therefore performed a study to validate the CAT as an outcome measure in bronchiectasis. METHODS: The CAT was administered to two cohorts of bronchiectasis patients along with other quality of life questionnaires. Patients underwent comprehensive clinical assessment. One cohort had repeated questionnaires collected before-and-after treatment of acute exacerbations. We analyzed convergent validity, repeatability, and responsiveness of the score and calculated the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) using a combination of distribution and anchor-based methods. RESULTS: In both cohorts there were positive correlations between the CAT and the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (r = 0.90, P < .0001 and r = 0.87, P < .0001). There was an inverse relationship between CAT and Quality of Life - Bronchiectasis Respiratory Symptoms Scale (r = -0.75, P < .0001) and Leicester Cough Questionnaire score (r = -0.77, P < .0001). Patients with more severe disease, based on the bronchiectasis severity index, had significantly higher CAT scores. CAT also correlated with FEV1 % predicted and 6-min walk distance (6MWD). CAT increased significantly at exacerbation and fell at recovery. The intraclass correlation coefficient for two measurements four-weeks apart while clinically stable was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.73-0.95, P < .0001). An MCID of 4 was most consistent. CONCLUSIONS: CAT is a valid, responsive symptom assessment tool in bronchiectasis. The MCID is estimated as 4 points.

Assessment of Phenotype Microarray plates for rapid and high-throughput analysis of collateral sensitivity networks.

The crisis of antimicrobial resistance is driving research into the phenomenon of collateral sensitivity. Sometimes, when a bacterium evolves resistance to one antimicrobial, it becomes sensitive to others. In this study, we have investigated the utility of Phenotype Microarray (PM) plates for identifying collateral sensitivities with unprecedented throughput. We assessed the relative resistance/sensitivity phenotypes of nine strains of Staphylococcus aureus (two laboratory strains and seven clinical isolates) towards the 72 antimicrobials contained in three PM plates. In general, the PM plates reported on resistance and sensitivity with a high degree of reproducibility. However, a rigorous comparison of PM growth phenotypes with minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) measurements revealed a trade-off between throughput and accuracy. Small differences in PM growth phenotype did not necessarily correlate with changes in MIC. Thus, we conclude that PM plates are useful for the rapid and high-throughput assessment of large changes in collateral sensitivity phenotypes during the evolution of antimicrobial resistance, but more subtle examples of cross-resistance or collateral sensitivity cannot be identified reliably using this approach.

A 2 × 2 factorial, randomised, open-label trial to determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of hypertonic saline (HTS 6%) and carbocisteine for airway clearance versus usual care over 52 weeks in adults with bronchiectasis: a protocol for the CLEAR clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for the management of bronchiectasis (BE) highlight the lack of evidence to recommend mucoactive agents, such as hypertonic saline (HTS) and carbocisteine, to aid sputum removal as part of standard care. We hypothesise that mucoactive agents (HTS or carbocisteine, or a combination) are effective in reducing exacerbations over a 52-week period, compared to usual care. METHODS: This is a 52-week, 2 × 2 factorial, randomized, open-label trial to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of HTS 6% and carbocisteine for airway clearance versus usual care - the Clinical and cost-effectiveness of hypertonic saline (HTS 6%) and carbocisteine for airway clearance versus usual care (CLEAR) trial. Patients will be randomised to (1) standard care and twice-daily nebulised HTS (6%), (2) standard care and carbocisteine (750 mg three times per day until visit 3, reducing to 750 mg twice per day), (3) standard care and combination of twice-daily nebulised HTS and carbocisteine, or (4) standard care. The primary outcome is the mean number of exacerbations over 52 weeks. Key inclusion criteria are as follows: adults with a diagnosis of BE on computed tomography, BE as the primary respiratory diagnosis, and two or more pulmonary exacerbations in the last year requiring antibiotics and production of daily sputum. DISCUSSION: This trial's pragmatic research design avoids the significant costs associated with double-blind trials whilst optimising rigour in other areas of trial delivery. The CLEAR trial will provide evidence as to whether HTS, carbocisteine or both are effective and cost effective for patients with BE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number: 2017-000664-14 (first entered in the database on 20 October 2017). ISRCTN.com, ISRCTN89040295. Registered on 6 July/2018. Funder: National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment Programme (15/100/01). SPONSOR: Belfast Health and Social Care Trust. Ethics Reference Number: 17/NE/0339. Protocol version: v3.0 Final_14052018.

The economic burden of bronchiectasis - known and unknown: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence and recognition of bronchiectasis in clinical practice necessitates a better understanding of the economic disease burden to improve the management and achieve better clinical and economic outcomes. This study aimed to assess the economic burden of bronchiectasis based on a review of published literature. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, EconLit and Cochrane databases to identify publications (1 January 2001 to 31 December 2016) on the economic burden of bronchiectasis in adults. RESULTS: A total of 26 publications were identified that reported resource use and costs associated with management of bronchiectasis. Two US studies reported annual incremental costs of bronchiectasis versus matched controls of US$5681 and US$2319 per patient. Twenty-four studies reported on hospitalization rates or duration of hospitalization for patients with bronchiectasis. Mean annual hospitalization rates per patient, reported in six studies, ranged from 0.3-1.3, while mean annual age-adjusted hospitalization rates, reported in four studies, ranged from 1.8-25.7 per 100,000 population. The average duration of hospitalization, reported in 12 studies, ranged from 2 to 17 days. Eight publications reported management costs of bronchiectasis. Total annual management costs of €3515 and €4672 per patient were reported in two Spanish studies. Two US studies reported total costs of approximately US$26,000 in patients without exacerbations, increasing to US$36,00-37,000 in patients with exacerbations. Similarly, a Spanish study reported higher total annual costs for patients with > 2 exacerbations per year (€7520) compared with those without exacerbations (€3892). P. aeruginosa infection increased management costs by US$31,551 to US$56,499, as reported in two US studies, with hospitalization being the main cost driver. CONCLUSIONS: The current literature suggests that the economic burden of bronchiectasis in society is significant. Hospitalization costs are the major driver behind these costs, especially in patients with frequent exacerbations. However, the true economic burden of bronchiectasis is likely to be underestimated because most studies were retrospective, used ICD-9-CM coding to identify patients, and often ignored outpatient burden and cost. We present a conceptual framework to facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of the true burden of bronchiectasis for individuals, healthcare systems and society.

Economic burden of bronchiectasis in Germany.

Estimates of healthcare costs for incident bronchiectasis patients are currently not available for any European country.Out of a sample of 4 859 013 persons covered by German statutory health insurance companies, 231 new bronchiectasis patients were identified in 2012. They were matched with 685 control patients by age, sex and Charlson Comorbidity Index, and followed for 3 years.The total direct expenditure during that period per insured bronchiectasis patient was EUR18 634.57 (95% CI EUR15 891.02-23 871.12), nearly one-third higher (ratio of mean 1.31, 95% CI 1.02-1.68) than for a matched control (p<0.001). Hospitalisation costs contributed to 35% of the total and were >50% higher in the bronchiectasis group (ratio of mean 1.56, 95% CI 1.20-3.01; p<0.001); on average, bronchiectasis patients spent 4.9 (95% CI 2.27-7.43) more days in hospital (p<0.001). Antibiotics expenditures per bronchiectasis outpatient (EUR413.81) were nearly 5 times higher than those for a matched control (ratio of mean 4.85, 95% CI 2.72-8.64). Each bronchiectasis patient had on average 40.5 (95% CI 17.1-43.5) sick-leave days and induced work-loss costs of EUR4230.49 (95% CI EUR2849.58-5611.20). The mortality rate for bronchiectasis and matched non-bronchiectasis patients after 3 years of follow-up was 26.4% and 10.5%, respectively (p<0.001). Mortality in the bronchiectasis group was higher among those who also had chronic obstructive lung disease than in patients with bronchiectasis alone (35.9% and 14.6%, respectively; p<0.001).Although bronchiectasis is considered underdiagnosed, the mortality and associated financial burden in Germany are substantial.

Burden of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in adults across Europe: A literature review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) among adults in Europe is poorly defined. METHODS: Structured searches of PubMed were conducted to identify the incidence of pneumococcal CAP among adults across Europe. RESULTS: The overall incidence rates for CAP was 68-7000 per 100,000 and the incidence in hospitalised CAP cases of all causes was 16-3581 per 100,000. In general the incidence of CAP increased consistently with age. Available data indicated higher burdens of pneumococcal CAP caused in groups with more comorbidities. Most cases of pneumococcal CAP (30%-78%) were caused by serotypes covered by PCV13 vaccine; the incidence of PCV13-related pneumonia decreased after the introduction of childhood vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high burden adult pneumococcal CAP in Europe despite use of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, particularly in elderly patients with comorbidities. CAP surveillance presented wide variations across Europe. Pneumococcal CAP has to be monitored very carefully due to the possible effect of current vaccination strategies.

A systematic review of the burden of vaccine preventable pneumococcal disease in UK adults.

BACKGROUND: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal pneumonia are common and carry a significant morbidity and mortality. Current strategies to prevent pneumococcal disease are under review in the United Kingdom (UK). We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the burden of vaccine type adult pneumococcal disease specifically in the UK. METHODS: A systematic review conducted and reported according to MOOSE guidelines. Relevant studies from 1990 to 2015 were included. The primary outcome was the incidence of vaccine type pneumococcal disease, focussing on the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV), the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and the 7-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV7). RESULTS: Data from surveillance in England and Wales from 2013/14 shows an incidence of 6.85 per 100,000 population across all adult age groups for IPD, and an incidence of 20.58 per 100,000 population in those aged >65 years. The corresponding incidences for PCV13 serotype IPD were 1.4 per 100,000 and 3.72 per 100,000. The most recent available data for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) including non-invasive disease showed an incidence of 20.6 per 100,000 for adult pneumococcal CAP and 8.6 per 100,000 population for PCV13 serotype CAP. Both IPD and CAP data sources in the UK suggest an ongoing herd protection effect from childhood PCV13 vaccination causing a reduction in the proportion of cases caused by PCV13 serotypes in adults. Despite this, applying the incidence rates to UK population estimates suggests more than 4000 patients annually will be hospitalised with PCV13 serotype CAP and more than 900 will be affected by IPD, although with a trend for these numbers to decrease over time. There was limited recent data on serotype distribution in high risk groups such as those with chronic respiratory or cardiac disease and no data available for vaccine type (VT) CAP managed in the community where there is likely to be a considerable unmeasured burden. CONCLUSION: The most recent available data suggests that VT pneumococcal disease continues to have a high burden in UK adults despite the impact of childhood PCV13 vaccination. IPD estimates represent only a fraction of the total burden of pneumococcal disease. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42015025043.

Evaluation of health in pregnancy grants in Scotland: a protocol for a natural experiment.

INTRODUCTION: A substantial proportion of low birth weight is attributable to the mother's cultural and socioeconomic circumstances. Early childhood programmes have been widely developed to improve child outcomes. In the UK, the Health in Pregnancy (HiP) grant, a universal conditional cash transfer of £190, was introduced for women reaching the 25th week of pregnancy with a due date on/or after 6 April 2009 and subsequently withdrawn for women reaching the 25th week of pregnancy on/or after 1 January 2011. The current study focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the HiP grant. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The population under study will be all singleton births in Scotland over the periods of January 2004 to March 2009 (preintervention), April 2009 to April 2011 (intervention) and May 2011 to December 2013 (postintervention). Data will be extracted from the Scottish maternity and neonatal database. The analysis period 2004-2013 should yield over 585,000 births. The primary outcome will be birth weight among singleton births. Other secondary outcomes will include gestation at booking, booking before 25 weeks; measures of size and stage; gestational age at delivery; weight-for-dates, term at birth; birth outcomes and maternal smoking. The main statistical method we will use is interrupted time series. Outcomes will be measured on individual births nested within mothers, with mothers themselves clustered within data zones. Multilevel regression models will be used to determine whether the outcomes changed during the period in which the HiP grants was in effect. Subgroup analyses will be conducted for those groups most likely to benefit from the payments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval for data collection, storage and release for research purpose has been given (6 May 2014, PAC38A/13) by the Privacy Advisory Committee. The results of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in journals, national and international conferences.

Informing the 'early years' agenda in Scotland: understanding infant feeding patterns using linked datasets.

BACKGROUND: Providing infants with the 'best possible start in life' is a priority for the Scottish Government. This is reflected in policy and health promotion strategies to increase breast feeding, which gives the best source of nutrients for healthy infant growth and development. However, the rate of breast feeding in Scotland remains one of the lowest in Europe. Information is needed to provide a better understanding of infant feeding and its impact on child health. This paper describes the development of a unique population-wide resource created to explore infant feeding and child health in Scotland. METHODS: Descriptive and multivariate analyses of linked routine/administrative maternal and infant health records for 731,595 infants born in Scotland between 1997 and 2009. RESULTS: A linked dataset was created containing a wide range of background, parental, maternal, birth and health service characteristics for a representative sample of infants born in Scotland over the study period. There was high coverage and completeness of infant feeding and other demographic, maternal and infant records. The results confirmed the importance of an enabling environment--cultural, family, health service and other maternal and infant health-related factors--in increasing the likelihood to breast feed. CONCLUSIONS: Using the linked dataset, it was possible to investigate the determinants of breast feeding for a representative sample of Scottish infants born between 1997 and 2009. The linked dataset is an important resource that has potential uses in research, policy design and targeting intervention programmes.

Severity assessment scores to guide empirical use of antibiotics in community acquired pneumonia.

Severity assessment scores were first developed to predict the 30 day mortality in community acquired pneumonia; however, several guidelines have extended their use to guide empirical antibiotic prescription decisions. This approach has theoretical advantages because a decrease in broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment in low-risk patients might reduce antibiotic-related side-effects, and to give broad-spectrum therapy to patients at higher risk of death is intuitive. However, evidence in support of this approach is not clear. In particular, the British Thoracic Society guidelines suggest withholding a macrolide from patients with low CURB 65 scores, despite evidence that these patients have a higher frequency of atypical pathogens than do those with a higher severity of pneumonia. Severity scores do not perform well in some groups and might overestimate disease severity in elderly people, leading to inappropriate broad-spectrum treatment to those at high risk of complications such as Clostridium difficile infection. In this Review, we discuss the evidence for antibiotic prescribing guided by severity score and suggest that more evidence of effect and implementation is needed before this approach can be universally adopted.