Modelling the economic and clinical burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in East Asia: Data from Hong Kong.

AIM: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and prevalence is rising in Asia due to increasing rates of urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and poor nutrition. METHODS: We built a Markov model with 20-year horizon to estimate the burden of NASH in Hong Kong. Cohort size was determined by population size, prevalence of NAFLD, and incidence of NASH in 2017. Health states include hepatic steatosis, fibrosis stages 0-3, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, post-liver transplant, and liver-related, cardiovascular, and background mortality. Transition probabilities were estimated from published reports and we converted 2017 Gazette price from the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong to US dollars. We discounted costs by 3% annually. Health utilities were assumed to be the same as in the USA. RESULTS: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will cost $1.32 billion and 124 liver transplants over 20 years, with average cost per person-year of $257. Sensitivity analyses show our model is robust in predicting costs for the prevalent population but likely overestimates costs for the incident population. CONCLUSIONS: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will contribute to a significant clinical and economic burden in Hong Kong over the next two decades. Due to the limited number of donors and small number of liver transplants undertaken annually, patients with advanced liver disease due to NASH in Hong Kong are more likely to die from NASH than their counterparts in North America and Europe. Thus, rising prevalence of metabolic syndrome in elderly adults in Hong Kong make NASH an important consideration for clinicians and policy makers.

Cost-effectiveness of the highly effective direct-acting antivirals in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In Asia-Pacific where cost is a major concern, peginterferon plus ribavirin (PR) often remain as the standard of care in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treatment, while the direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are commonly recommended as retreatment. Newer DAAs can achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) of nearly 100% with pan-genotypic coverage, that is "Highly Effective DAAs." We aimed to investigate the most desirable cost range for the Highly Effective DAAs using Hong Kong as an example. METHODS: Markov modeling was performed using PR as the reference strategy. The cost-effectiveness of the Highly Effective DAAs was compared with sofosbuvir-PR (first-line and rescue) and boceprevir-PR therapies. A 50-year-old genotype 1b hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected treatment-naïve patient with METAVIR F3 was used as the base case scenario to reflect the commonest HCV genotype in Hong Kong. RESULTS: The use of PR would incur a lifetime cost of US$35,854 and effectiveness of 14.85 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sofosbuvir-PR as first-line treatment was dominated by other regimes. If Sofosbuvir-PR rescue therapy was used, the drug cost of Highly Effective DAAs should be set below US$43,553, with a cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of US$3035/QALY compared with PR. In regions where Boceprevir-PR was still used as first-line therapy, the desirable drug cost of Highly Effective DAAs would be below US$56,985 to achieve a CER of US$5427/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The most desirable costs of the Highly Effective DAAs would be below US$43,553 if Sofosbuvir-PR rescue therapy is used and below US$56,985 if Boceprevir-PR therapy is used.

Reimbursement policies in the Asia-Pacific for chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable variation in reimbursement policies in Asian countries and this is likely to have an impact on treatment practice for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Consequently a survey of leading hepatologists was performed to evaluate such policies and their impact on management of CHB in the Asia Pacific region. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to key hepatologists in Asia Pacific for information on CHB reimbursement policy-its nature, coverage, funding source, duration, review strategy and impact on Asia Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) CHB guidelines. The results were analysed and described. RESULTS: Leading hepatologists from 16 Asia Pacific countries responded. Almost all of the countries have reimbursement policies but eligibility varied from only a limited group (e.g. civil servants only) to universal access. In most instances reimbursement was from the central government (except China, Pakistan and Hong Kong). Reimbursement policies were usually created by Ministry of Health committees, who received input from medical professionals, although they may not be aware of the APASL guidelines. Policies were limited by available resources, funds and prioritization. Where there was a regular review this occurred between 1 and 5 years. The quantum of reimbursement varied from 50% in Singapore to 100% in the majority of other countries. The criteria for treatment reimbursement were based on doctor's opinion alone (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam) or specific clinical/laboratory criteria in the rest of the countries. In general, most countries offered unlimited duration for reimbursement except Taiwan, Indonesia and Pakistan. Monitoring tests for treatment response were reimbursed in all countries other than Vietnam. Viral resistance was diagnosed by viral or biochemical breakthrough, and viral resistance testing was uncommon. The main rescue therapy was adefovir. CONCLUSION: Reimbursement policies differed from country to country, the quantum and the proportion of patients who received reimbursement also varied significantly. Asia Pacific countries were able to follow APASL guidelines with variable success based on their reimbursement policies.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: assessment and modification with current antiviral therapy.

In the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), the ultimate goal is preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated liver disease, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently published studies show that in CHB patients treated with the currently recommended first-line nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) entecavir or tenofovir, annual HCC incidences range from 0.01% to 1.4% in non-cirrhotic patients, and from 0.9% to 5.4% in those with cirrhosis. In Asian studies including matched untreated controls, current NA therapy consistently resulted in a significantly lower HCC incidence in patients with cirrhosis, amounting to an overall HCC risk reduction of ∼30%; in non-cirrhotic patients, HCC risk reduction was overall ∼80%, but this was only observed in some studies. For patients of Caucasian origin, no appropriate comparative studies are available to date to evaluate the impact of NA treatment on HCC. Achievement of a virologic response under current NA therapy was associated with a lower HCC risk in Asian, but not Caucasian studies. Studies comparing entecavir or tenofovir with older NAs generally found no difference in HCC risk reduction between agents, except for one study which used no rescue therapy in patients developing lamivudine resistance. Overall, these data indicate that with the current, potent NAs, HCC risk can be reduced but not eliminated, probably due to risk factors that are not amenable to change by antiviral therapy, or events that may have taken place before treatment initiation. Validated pre- and on-therapy HCC risk calculators that inform the best practice for HCC surveillance and facilitate patient counseling would be of great practical value.

Cost effectiveness of response-guided therapy with peginterferon in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The high prevalence of chronic hepatitis B in Asian countries produces a substantial economic burden. Peginterferon has immunomodulatory effects and a finite course for treatment of hepatitis B, but also a high cost and side effects. The recent introduction of a 12-week stopping rule (stopping treatment after 12 weeks) has increased its appeal as a first-line treatment for hepatitis B. We aimed to determine the cost effectiveness of the 12-week stopping rule for peginterferon in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. METHODS: We used Markov modeling, with data from the Hong Kong population, to compare the cost effectiveness of peginterferon therapy with a 12-week stopping rule vs conventional therapy (48 weeks) and with other antiviral agents. RESULTS: For HBeAg-positive patients, stopping peginterferon therapy after 12 weeks had the lowest cost-effectiveness ratio (CER), of $9501/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), compared with no treatment, making it the most cost-effective option. Conventional (48-week) peginterferon treatment had a CER of $9664/QALY. For HBeAg-negative patients, entecavir had the lowest CER ($34,310/QALY). Entecavir was more cost effective than either peginterferon strategies (CERs of $37,423/QALY for 12 weeks of peginterferon and $38,474/QALY for 48 weeks of treatment). CONCLUSIONS: The 12-week stopping rule increases the cost effectiveness of peginterferon therapy, and is the most cost-effective treatment for HBeAg-positive patients. The need for long-term antiviral therapy for HBeAg-negative patients makes entecavir the most cost-effective strategy.

Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis with transient elastography (FibroScan®): applying the cut-offs of M probe to XL probe.

UNLABELLED: BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY: Limited studies have aimed to define the cut-offs of XL probe (XL cut-offs) for different stages of liver fibrosis, whereas those of M probe (M cut-offs) may not be applicable to XL probe. We aimed to derive appropriate XL cut-offs in overweight patients. Patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by both probes were recruited. XL cut-offs probe for corresponding M cut-offs were derived from an exploratory cohort, and subsequently validated in a subgroup patients also underwent liver biopsy. The diagnostic accuracy of XL cut-offs to diagnose advanced fibrosis was evaluated. RESULTS: Total 517 patients (63% male, mean age 58) who had reliable LSM by both probes were included in the exploratory cohort. There was a strong correlation between the LSM by M probe (LSM-M) and LSM by XL probe (LSM-XL) (r² = 0.89, p < 0.001). A decision tree using LSM-XL was learnt to predict the 3 categories of LSM-M (< 6.0kPa, 6.0-11.9kPa and ≥ 12.0kPa), and XL cut-offs at 4.8kPa and 10.7kPa were identified. These cut-offs were subsequently validated in a cohort of 147 patients who underwent liver biopsy. The overall accuracy was 89% among 62 patients whose LSM-XL < 4.8kPa or ≥ 10.7kPa. These cut-offs would have avoided under-staging of fibrosis among patients with body mass index (BMI) > 25-30 kg/m2 but not > 30 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: XL cut-offs at 4.8kPa and 10.7kPa were the best estimates of 6.0kPa and 12.0kPa of M probe for patients with BMI > 25-30 kg/m2. Patients with BMI > 30 kg/m² might use M probe cut-offs for XL probe.

Prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma: a concise review of contemporary issues.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer deaths in men. Due to differences in the prevalence of viral hepatitis, the incidence of HCC in low and middle income countries is much higher than that of high income countries. Strategies to limit the impact of HCC include primary prevention against new cases of viral hepatitis, secondary prevention of HCC in susceptible individuals, and early HCC detection. Universal hepatitis B vaccination has resulted in dramatic reduction in incident cases of chronic hepatitis B and HCC in children and adolescents, and the full effect is expected in the next 20 years. The key hurdle for universal vaccination is the cost and the accessibility in low and middle income countries. Randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses showed that successful treatment of chronic hepatitis B and C can reduce the risk of HCC and cirrhotic complications. HCC surveillance by regular ultrasound examination and alpha fetoprotein testing leads to early cancer detection and offers the opportunity for curative treatment. Since all these measures are costly and require manpower and infrastructure support, the implementation should rely on the liaison among healthcare providers and policymakers. The cost-effectiveness of various strategies should also be studied based on local situations.

Chronic hepatitis B in Asia-new insights from the past decade.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major health problem in the Asia-Pacific region. In the past decade, much progress has been made in the understanding and management of this disease. The introduction of universal vaccination has significantly reduced the incidence of perinatal infection in most Asia-Pacific countries. As the majority of the adult population have not been immunized at birth, we are still facing a large population of young HBV-infected patients in the coming two decades. The study of long-term longitudinal databases has provided deeper insight into the clinical significance of HBV DNA suppression, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B. With a better understanding on the natural history of HBV infection, one can now stratify the risk of chronic hepatitis B patients for adverse clinical outcomes and use this to individualize management. The introduction of non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis can potentially reduce the necessity of liver biopsy. There have also been great advances in the development of antiviral therapy in the past decade. However, the high cost of HBV antiviral drugs poses major challenges to health authorities in many Asia-Pacific countries. Properly performed cost-effective analysis and understanding on the best timing of stopping antiviral drugs will be important to facilitate the most appropriate allocation of resources.

Transient elastography.

In clinical practice, it is important to assess the severity of liver fibrosis in patients with various liver diseases to determine the prognosis, decide treatment, and monitor disease progression and response to treatment. Liver biopsy is limited by its invasiveness and patient acceptability. The development of transient elastography provides clinicians with a non-invasive, accurate, and reproducible tool to estimate liver fibrosis. The technique has been validated among many liver diseases and requires only simple training. Due to its non-invasive nature and ease of use, transient elastography can be used repeatedly on patients, and is optimal for large-scale epidemiological studies, in which stable patients with no indication for liver biopsy can also be included. However, falsely-high liver stiffness measurements might occur during acute hepatitis, extrahepatic cholestasis, congestive heart failure, and amyloidosis. Failed acquisition is also common in obese patients. The development of S and XL probes might cater for different population groups, but calibration in patients with liver biopsy is essential.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of roadmap models in chronic hepatitis B using tenofovir as the rescue therapy.

BACKGROUND: The roadmap approach is recommended to guide chronic hepatitis B treatment. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of various treatment strategies in the global market. METHODS: Lamivudine and telbivudine were tested in roadmap models with switch-to tenofovir if HBV was detectable at week 24 or add-on tenofovir if resistance developed at year 1. Tenofovir and entecavir were tested as continuous monotherapy. In the reference arm, lamivudine was used with add-on tenofovir if resistance developed at year 1. The primary measure of effectiveness was undetectable HBV DNA at year 2. Cost-effectiveness was measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in US dollars against the reference arm. RESULTS: In the US and Germany, costs of the reference arms were US $14,486 and US $9,998 for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive and US $11,398 and US $7,531 for HBeAg-negative patients, respectively. In HBeAg-positive patients, the lamivudine roadmap was most cost-effective (ICER US $15,260 in the US and US $29,113 in Germany) with comparable effectiveness (75.1%) to other strategies. In HBeAg-negative patients, tenofovir and entecavir monotherapies were most effective (91-96%) and cost-effective (ICER US $31,297-43,387 in the US and US $53,976-59,822 in Germany). In Asia, where telbivudine cost was lower, both telbivudine and lamivudine roadmaps were cost-effective in HBeAg-positive patients. Tenofovir would be most cost-effective in HBeAg-negative patients if its cost equaled that of telbivudine in Asia. CONCLUSIONS: In HBeAg-positive patients, lamivudine roadmap was most cost-effective; in Asia, telbivudine roadmap had comparable cost-effectiveness to lamivudine roadmap because of the relatively low price of telbivudine. In HBeAg-negative patients, entecavir and tenofovir monotherapies were more cost-effective than the roadmap models.

Application of surveillance programs for hepatocellular carcinoma in the Asia-Pacific Region.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a potential target for cancer surveillance (or screening) as it occurs in well-defined, at-risk populations and curative therapy is possible only for small tumors. Surveillance has been recommended by regional liver societies and is practiced widely, but its benefits are not clearly established. Hepatic ultrasonography with or without alpha fetoprotein (AFP) performed every 6 months is the preferred program. Surveillance of HCC has been well shown to detect small tumors for curative treatment, which may be translated to improved patient survival. However, most studies are limited by lead-time bias, length bias for early diagnosis of small HCC, different tumor growth rates and poor compliance with surveillance. Cost-effectiveness of surveillance programs depends on the rate of small HCC detected 'accidentally' (routine imaging) in a comparator group, annual incidence of HCC with various etiologies, patient age and the availability of liver transplantation. The incremental cost-effectiveness for 6-monthly AFP and ultrasound has been estimated from approximately $US 26,000-74,000/quality adjusted life years (QALY). All cirrhotic patients are therefore recommended for HCC surveillance unless the disease is too advanced for any curative treatment. As chronic hepatitis B can develop into HCC without going through liver cirrhosis, high-risk non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients are also recommended for HCC surveillance. In conclusion, HCC surveillance could be effective at reducing disease-specific mortality with acceptable cost-effectiveness among selected patient groups, provided it is a well-organized program.

Assessment of fibrosis by transient elastography compared with liver biopsy and morphometry in chronic liver diseases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with transient elastography (Fibroscan) can accurately diagnose advanced liver fibrosis, but its performance in early liver fibrosis is less satisfactory. We aimed to study the diagnostic performance of LSM for histologic bridging fibrosis and cirrhosis in various chronic liver diseases and to investigate the effects of liver fibrosis distribution on LSM. METHODS: We prospectively studied consecutive patients with chronic liver diseases undergoing liver biopsy and transient elastography examinations. Morphometric analysis was performed to evaluate the distribution of liver fibrosis. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-three patients (50% chronic hepatitis B, 14% chronic hepatitis C, and 24% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) were studied. Morphometric analysis revealed a higher correlation between LSM and pericellular fibrosis (r = 0.43) than periportal (r = 0.21) or perivenular fibrosis (r = 0.25). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of LSM for bridging fibrosis was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.93) and for cirrhosis was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.94). Higher LSM was associated with higher serum ALT level. Patients with the same fibrosis staging but higher ALT levels tend to have higher LSM. The area under ROC curve of LSM for cirrhosis was lower among patients who had ALT above the upper limit of normal (0.86) as compared with that of patients with normal ALT levels (0.93, P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Transient elastography can diagnose severe fibrosis because of its good correlation with pericellular fibrosis. Transient elastography might overestimate liver fibrosis when ALT is elevated.

Quantitative assessment of fibrosis in liver biopsies from patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Accurate histological assessment of liver fibrosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Although semi-quantitative scoring systems describe well the pathological patterns of hepatic structure, they produce fibrosis evaluation that is not very precise. Image analysis or morphometry has the theoretical advantage of providing truly quantitative data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The present study aimed at validating a new image analysis system, Bioquant Nova Prime, in estimating collagen content in liver biopsy samples from patients with CHB. The biopsies were stained with picrosirius red and the areas of collagen were measured. The results were correlated with laboratory parameters and Ishak modified histological scores. Discriminative reliability of morphometry was determined using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: There was excellent interobserver agreement (r=0.84-0.94, P<0.01) in the morphometric analysis. Significant correlations between the quantitative morphometric data and the semi-quantitative score (Spearman's r=0.68-0.78, P<0.001) were also demonstrated. Excellent discriminative power of morphometry in differentiating mild from advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis from absence of cirrhosis was shown by the ROC analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results validated the use of Bioquant Nova Prime in estimating collagen content in liver biopsies. We showed that morphometry is a sensitive method of liver fibrosis quantification in CHB and complements semi-quantitative histological scoring system. This tool, with its reliable intraassay variability, could be of special value in assessing histological response to treatment after anti-viral or anti-fibrotic therapy.