Accelerating drug development at Bristol Myers Squibb through innovation.

This paper focuses on the use of novel technologies and innovative trial designs to accelerate evidence generation and increase pharmaceutical Research and Development (R&D) productivity, at Bristol Myers Squibb. We summarize learnings with case examples, on how we prepared and continuously evolved to address the increasing cost, complexities, and external pressures in drug development, to bring innovative medicines to patients much faster. These learnings were based on review of internal efforts toward accelerating R&D focusing on four key areas: adopting innovative trial designs, optimizing trial designs, leveraging external control data, and implementing novel methods using artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Long-term persistence of zoster vaccine efficacy.

BACKGROUND: The Shingles Prevention Study (SPS) demonstrated zoster vaccine efficacy through 4 years postvaccination. A Short-Term Persistence Substudy (STPS) demonstrated persistence of vaccine efficacy for at least 5 years. A Long-Term Persistence Substudy (LTPS) was undertaken to further assess vaccine efficacy in SPS vaccine recipients followed for up to 11 years postvaccination. Study outcomes were assessed for the entire LTPS period and for each year from 7 to 11 years postvaccination. METHODS: Surveillance, case determination, and follow-up were comparable to those in SPS and STPS. Because SPS placebo recipients were offered zoster vaccine before the LTPS began, there were no unvaccinated controls. Instead, SPS and STPS placebo results were used to model reference placebo groups. RESULTS: The LTPS enrolled 6867 SPS vaccine recipients. Compared to SPS, estimated vaccine efficacy in LTPS decreased from 61.1% to 37.3% for the herpes zoster (HZ) burden of illness (BOI), from 66.5% to 35.4% for incidence of postherpetic neuralgia, and from 51.3% to 21.1% for incidence of HZ, and declined for all 3 outcome measures from 7 through 11 years postvaccination. Vaccine efficacy for the HZ BOI was significantly greater than zero through year 10 postvaccination, whereas vaccine efficacy for incidence of HZ was significantly greater than zero only through year 8. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of vaccine efficacy decreased over time in the LTPS population compared with modeled control estimates. Statistically significant vaccine efficacy for HZ BOI persisted into year 10 postvaccination, whereas statistically significant vaccine efficacy for incidence of HZ persisted only through year 8.

Correlation coefficient inference on censored bioassay data.

In vaccine clinical trials, immunologic responses sometimes can not be accurately measured by bioassays. For example, a serial dilution assay usually reports the range of the response instead of the exact value. In some other assays, the measurement is not available if the response is lower than the assay's detection limit. In both cases, the measurements are censored. We are interested in computing the confidence interval for the correlation coefficient of two assay measurements that are subject to censoring. We propose using the maximum likelihood method to estimate the correlation coefficient, and constructing its confidence interval based on the second-order Taylor's expansion of the Fisher Z transformation. The method can be viewed as an extension of the Fisher Z transformation to the case of censored data. Extensive simulations show that the proposed method provides satisfactory coverage probabilities under finite sample sizes. The proposed method performs well compared with existing methods, but it is computationally much simpler. In addition, the proposed method works with many types of censored data in a similar way. Furthermore, we proposed an Monte Carlo exact test to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model.