Implementing artificial intelligence in Canadian primary care: Barriers and strategies identified through a national deliberative dialogue.

BACKGROUND: With large volumes of longitudinal data in electronic medical records from diverse patients, primary care is primed for disruption by artificial intelligence (AI) technology. With AI applications in primary care still at an early stage in Canada and most countries, there is a unique opportunity to engage key stakeholders in exploring how AI would be used and what implementation would look like. OBJECTIVE: To identify the barriers that patients, providers, and health leaders perceive in relation to implementing AI in primary care and strategies to overcome them. DESIGN: 12 virtual deliberative dialogues. Dialogue data were thematically analyzed using a combination of rapid ethnographic assessment and interpretive description techniques. SETTING: Virtual sessions. PARTICIPANTS: Participants from eight provinces in Canada, including 22 primary care service users, 21 interprofessional providers, and 5 health system leaders. RESULTS: The barriers that emerged from the deliberative dialogue sessions were grouped into four themes: (1) system and data readiness, (2) the potential for bias and inequity, (3) the regulation of AI and big data, and (4) the importance of people as technology enablers. Strategies to overcome the barriers in each of these themes were highlighted, where participatory co-design and iterative implementation were voiced most strongly by participants. LIMITATIONS: Only five health system leaders were included in the study and no self-identifying Indigenous people. This is a limitation as both groups may have provided unique perspectives to the study objective. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide insight into the barriers and facilitators associated with implementing AI in primary care settings from different perspectives. This will be vital as decisions regarding the future of AI in this space is shaped.

An Anesthesia Block Room Is Financially Net Positive for a Hospital Performing Arthroplasty.

INTRODUCTION: Regional anesthesia is increasingly used in total joint arthroplasty (TJA). It has shown efficiency benefits as it allows parallel processing of patients in a dedicated block room (BR). However, granular quantification of these benefits to hospital operations is lacking. The goal of this study was to determine the financial effect of establishing a BR using comprehensive operational modeling. METHODS: A discrete-event simulation model of daily operating room (OR) patient flow for TJA procedures at a mid-sized hospital was developed. Two scenarios were tested: (1) without and (2) with a BR. Scenarios were compared according to staffing requirements, hours/day, and labor costs. The number of ORs and cases varied from 2 to 6 ORs performing 3 to 5 cases. These results were used as the inputs of a discounted cash flow (CF) model. Discounted CF model outputs were CF, net present value, internal rate of return, and return on investment. RESULTS: Mean time savings of incorporating a BR were 68 min/d (range: 30 to 80 min/d), reducing the OR closing time by 1 hour. Incremental labor costs/day from nurse overtime pay ranged from $2,025 to $10,125 with no BR and $1,595 to $9,045 with a BR, which resulted in an increase in profit/day from $360 to $1,605. The CF/annum was $54,363, the net present value was $213,082, the internal rate of return was 12%, and the return on investment was 43.61%. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates that under all scenarios, a BR is more profitable than no BR to a hospital performing TJA via a bundled care or private payer remuneration model. A BR was shown to be financially net positive even when considering the necessary financial investment to establish it. In addition, this study demonstrates the potential of combining discrete-event simulation with financial analyses to assess various operational models of care to improve hospital efficiency, such as dedicated trauma rooms and swing rooms. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Utilization and cost-effectiveness of school and community center AED deployment models in Canadian cities.

BACKGROUND: The optimal locations and cost-effectiveness of placing automated external defibrillators (AEDs) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCAs) in urban residential neighbourhoods are unclear. METHODS: We used prospectively collected data from 2016 to 2018 from the British Columbia OHCA Registry to examine the utilization and cost-effectiveness of hypothetical AED deployment in municipalities with a population of over 100 000. We geo-plotted OHCA events using seven hypothetical deployment models where AEDs were placed at the exteriors of public schools and community centers and fetched by bystanders. We calculated the "radius of effectiveness" around each AED within which it could be retrieved and applied to an individual prior to EMS arrival, comparing automobile and pedestrian-based retrieval modes. For each deployment model, we estimated the number of OHCAs within the "radius of effectiveness". RESULTS: We included 4017 OHCAs from ten urban municipalities. The estimated radius of effectiveness around each AED was 625 m for automobile and 240 m for pedestrian retrieval. With AEDs placed outside each school and community center, 2567 (64%) and 605 (15%) of OHCAs fell within the radii of effectiveness for automobile and pedestrian retrieval, respectively. For each AED, there was an average of 1.20-2.66 and 0.25-0.61 in-range OHCAs per year for automobile retrieval and pedestrian retrieval, respectively, depending on the deployment model. All of our proposed surpassed the cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.125 OHCA/AED/year provided > 5.3-11.6% in-range AEDs were brought-to-scene. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic deployment of AEDs at schools and community centers in urban neighbourhoods may result in increased application and be a cost-effective public health intervention.

Risk Stratification for Early Detection of Diabetes and Hypertension in Resource-Limited Settings: Machine Learning Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impending scale up of noncommunicable disease screening programs in low- and middle-income countries coupled with limited health resources require that such programs be as accurate as possible at identifying patients at high risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop machine learning-based risk stratification algorithms for diabetes and hypertension that are tailored for the at-risk population served by community-based screening programs in low-resource settings. METHODS: We trained and tested our models by using data from 2278 patients collected by community health workers through door-to-door and camp-based screenings in the urban slums of Hyderabad, India between July 14, 2015 and April 21, 2018. We determined the best models for predicting short-term (2-month) risk of diabetes and hypertension (a model for diabetes and a model for hypertension) and compared these models to previously developed risk scores from the United States and the United Kingdom by using prediction accuracy as characterized by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the number of false negatives. RESULTS: We found that models based on random forest had the highest prediction accuracy for both diseases and were able to outperform the US and UK risk scores in terms of AUC by 35.5% for diabetes (improvement of 0.239 from 0.671 to 0.910) and 13.5% for hypertension (improvement of 0.094 from 0.698 to 0.792). For a fixed screening specificity of 0.9, the random forest model was able to reduce the expected number of false negatives by 620 patients per 1000 screenings for diabetes and 220 patients per 1000 screenings for hypertension. This improvement reduces the cost of incorrect risk stratification by US $1.99 (or 35%) per screening for diabetes and US $1.60 (or 21%) per screening for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: In the next decade, health systems in many countries are planning to spend significant resources on noncommunicable disease screening programs and our study demonstrates that machine learning models can be leveraged by these programs to effectively utilize limited resources by improving risk stratification.

Effect of Optimized Versus Guidelines-Based Automated External Defibrillator Placement on Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Coverage: An In Silico Trial.

Background Mathematical optimization of automated external defibrillator (AED) placement may improve AED accessibility and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) outcomes compared with American Heart Association (AHA) and European Resuscitation Council (ERC) placement guidelines. We conducted an in silico trial (simulated prospective cohort study) comparing mathematically optimized placements with placements derived from current AHA and ERC guidelines, which recommend placement in locations where OHCAs are usually witnessed. Methods and Results We identified all public OHCAs of presumed cardiac cause from 2008 to 2016 in Copenhagen, Denmark. For the control, we computationally simulated placing 24/7-accessible AEDs at every unique, public, witnessed OHCA location at monthly intervals over the study period. The intervention consisted of an equal number of simulated AEDs placements, deployed monthly, at mathematically optimized locations, using a model that analyzed historical OHCAs before that month. For each approach, we calculated the number of OHCAs in the study period that occurred within a 100-m route distance based on Copenhagen's road network of an available AED after it was placed ("OHCA coverage"). Estimated impact on bystander defibrillation and 30-day survival was calculated by multivariate logistic regression. The control scenario involved 393 AEDs at historical, public, witnessed OHCA locations, covering 15.8% of the 653 public OHCAs from 2008 to 2016. The optimized locations provided significantly higher coverage (24.2%; P<0.001). Estimated bystander defibrillation and 30-day survival rates increased from 15.6% to 18.2% (P<0.05) and from 32.6% to 34.0% (P<0.05), respectively. As a baseline, the 1573 real AEDs in Copenhagen covered 14.4% of the OHCAs. Conclusions Mathematical optimization can significantly improve OHCA coverage and estimated clinical outcomes compared with a guidelines-based approach to AED placement.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.

BACKGROUND: Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found. CONCLUSION: Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

Estimating oxygen needs for childhood pneumonia in developing country health systems: a new model for expecting the unexpected.

BACKGROUND: Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or 'demand' for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons. FINDINGS: Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality. CONCLUSION: A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems.

A stochastic model for tumor geometry evolution during radiation therapy in cervical cancer.

PURPOSE: To develop mathematical models to predict the evolution of tumor geometry in cervical cancer undergoing radiation therapy. METHODS: The authors develop two mathematical models to estimate tumor geometry change: a Markov model and an isomorphic shrinkage model. The Markov model describes tumor evolution by investigating the change in state (either tumor or nontumor) of voxels on the tumor surface. It assumes that the evolution follows a Markov process. Transition probabilities are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation and depend on the states of neighboring voxels. The isomorphic shrinkage model describes tumor shrinkage or growth in terms of layers of voxels on the tumor surface, instead of modeling individual voxels. The two proposed models were applied to data from 29 cervical cancer patients treated at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre and then compared to a constant volume approach. Model performance was measured using sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: The Markov model outperformed both the isomorphic shrinkage and constant volume models in terms of the trade-off between sensitivity (target coverage) and specificity (normal tissue sparing). Generally, the Markov model achieved a few percentage points in improvement in either sensitivity or specificity compared to the other models. The isomorphic shrinkage model was comparable to the Markov approach under certain parameter settings. Convex tumor shapes were easier to predict. CONCLUSIONS: By modeling tumor geometry change at the voxel level using a probabilistic model, improvements in target coverage and normal tissue sparing are possible. Our Markov model is flexible and has tunable parameters to adjust model performance to meet a range of criteria. Such a model may support the development of an adaptive paradigm for radiation therapy of cervical cancer.