Daily mean temperature and HFMD: risk assessment and attributable fraction identification in Ningbo China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Many studies have reported the association between environmental temperature and HFMD. However, the results are highly heterogeneous in different regions. In addition, there are few studies on the attributable risk of HFMD due to temperature. OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to assess the association between temperature and HFMD incidence and to evaluate the attributable burden of HFMD due to temperature in Ningbo China. METHODS: The research used daily incidence of HFMD from 2014 to 2017 and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to investigate the effects of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on HFMD incidence from lag 0 to 30 days, after controlling potential confounders. The lag effects and cumulative relative risk (CRR) were analyzed. Attributable fraction (AF) of HFMD incidence due to temperature was calculated. Stratified analysis by gender and age were also conducted. RESULTS: The significant associations between Tmean and HFMD incidence were observed in Ningbo for lag 0-30. Two peaks were observed at both low (5-11 °C) and high (16-29 °C) temperature scales. For low temperature scale, the highest CRR was 2.22 (95% CI: 1.61-3.07) at 7 °C on lag 0-30. For high temperature scale, the highest CRR was 3.54 (95% CI: 2.58-4.88) at 24 °C on lag 0-30. The AF due to low and high temperature was 5.23% (95% CI: 3.10-7.14%) and 39.55% (95% CI: 30.91-45.51%), respectively. There was no significant difference between gender- and age-specific AFs, even though the school-age and female children had slightly higher AF values. CONCLUSIONS: The result indicates that both high and low temperatures were associated with daily incidence of HFMD, and more burdens were caused by heat in Ningbo.

Regional-level risk factors for severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease: an ecological study from mainland China.

BACKGROUND: Severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a life-threatening contagious disease among young children and infants. Although enterovirus A71 has been well acknowledged to be the dominant cause of severe HFMD, there still remain other unidentified risk factors for severe HFMD. Previous studies mainly focused on identifying the individual-level risk factors from a clinical perspective, while rare studies aimed to clarify the association between regional-level risk factors and severe HFMD, which may be more important from a public health perspective. METHODS: We retrieved the clinical HFMD counts between 2008 and 2014 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which were used to calculated the case-severity rate in 143 prefectural-level cities in mainland China. For each of those 143 cities, we further obtained city-specific characteristics from the China City Statistical Yearbook (social and economic variables) and the national meteorological monitoring system (meteorological variables). A Poisson regression model was then used to estimate the associations between city-specific characteristics (reduced by the principal component analysis to avoid multicollinearity) and the case-severity rate of HFMD. The above analysis was further stratified by age and gender to examine potential modifying effects and vulnerable sub-populations. RESULTS: We found that the case-severity rate of HFMD varied dramatically between cities, ranging from 0 to 8.09%. Cities with high case-severity rates were mainly clustered in Central China. By relating the case-severity rate to city-specific characteristics, we found that both the principal component characterized by a high level of social and economic development (RR = 0.823, 95%CI 0.739, 0.916) and another that characterized by warm and humid climate (RR = 0.771, 95%CI 0.619, 0.960) were negatively associated with the case-severity rate of HFMD. These estimations were consistent across age and gender sub-populations. CONCLUSION: Except for the type of infected pathogen, the case-severity rate of HFMD was closely related to city development and meteorological factor. These findings suggest that social and environmental factors may also play an important role in the progress of severe HFMD.

Active, population-based surveillance for rotavirus gastroenteritis in Chinese children: Beijing Municipality and Gansu Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of population-based incidence for rotavirus inpatient and outpatient visits, as well as their associated medical costs, can provide valuable information to assess the potential benefits of rotavirus vaccination. METHODS: We conducted active surveillance for rotavirus gastroenteritis at 6 medical institutions for children younger than 5 years from July 2012 to June 2013 in Beijing Municipality and Gansu Province. We collected stool samples of diarrhea patients for testing rotavirus, and epidemiological, clinical and cost data. RESULTS: The proportion of rotavirus-positive for inpatient and outpatient visits from Beijing was 28.7% (138/481) and 19.4% (133/687); a statistically lower proportion than observed in Gansu among inpatient visits (45.2%, 245/542, P < 0.001) and among outpatient visits (28.8%, 66/229, P = 0.003), respectively. The G9P[8] genotype was most prevalent in Beijing (60.6%) and in Gansu (77.6%). The median Vesikari scale value was 16 for rotavirus inpatients and 15 for nonrotavirus inpatients. Population-based estimated rates of rotavirus-related hospitalizations were 14.4 (95% CI, 13-16) per 10,000 children, and the rate of rotavirus gastroenteritis in the outpatient setting was 149 (95% CI, 145-153) per 10,000 children younger than 5 years. The estimated total number of rotavirus-related inpatient visits were 3790 (95% CI, 2488-3827) cases and 29,101 (95% CI: 27,748-29,279) outpatient visits. The total cost of rotavirus infection was $1.4 million (95% CI, $0.9-1.4 million) for hospitalizations and $4.2 million (95% CI, $4.0-4.2 million) for outpatient visits per year in Beijing and Gansu. CONCLUSION: Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in children younger than 5 years worldwide,accounting for an estimated 25 million clinic visits, 2 million hospitalizations and 453,000 deaths each year. In China, the world's most populous nation, surveillance at sentinel hospitals showed that approximately 48% of AGE hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years were attributed to rotavirus from 2003 to 2007, and 13,387 rotavirus deaths were estimated in China in 2002 alone.The Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccine, consisting of serotype G10P[12], was licensed in 2000 but is not included in the National Expanded Program of Immunization vaccine recommendations for Chinese children. License applications for new rotavirus vaccines (Rotarix, produced by GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, and RotaTeq, produced by Merck and Company) have been submitted for administering these vaccines to Chinese infants [corrected].