An HIV-1 risk assessment tool for women aged 15-49 in African countries: A pooled analysis across 15 nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Women in Africa disproportionately acquire HIV-1. Understanding which women are most likely to acquire HIV-1 can guide focused prevention with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Our objective is to identify women at highest risk of HIV-1 and estimate PrEP efficiency at different sensitivity levels. METHODS: Nationally representative data were collected from 2015-2019 from 15 population-based household surveys. This analysis included women aged 15-49 who tested HIV-1 sero-negative or had recent HIV-1. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression models were fit with 28 variables to predict recent HIV-1. Models were trained on the full population and internally cross-validated. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and number needed to treat (NNT) with PrEP to avert one infection. RESULTS: Among 209,012 participants 248 had recent HIV-1 infection, representing 118 million women and 402,000 (95% CI: 309,000-495,000) new annual infections. Two variables were retained in the model: living in a subnational area with high HIV-1 viremia and having a sexual partner living outside the home. Full-population AUC was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.84); cross-validated AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.75-0.84). At a sensitivity of 33%, up to 130,000 cases could be averted if 7.9 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; NNT would be 61. At a sensitivity of 67%, up to 260,000 cases could be averted if 25.1 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; the NNT would be 96. CONCLUSIONS: This risk assessment tool was generalizable, predictive, and parsimonious with tradeoffs between reach and efficiency.

Optimizing community linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy Initiation: Lessons from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) and their adaptation in Nigeria ART Surge.

BACKGROUND: Ineffective linkage to care (LTC) is a known challenge for community HIV testing. To overcome this challenge, a robust linkage to care strategy was adopted by the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). The NAIIS linkage to care strategy was further adapted to improve Nigeria's programmatic efforts to achieve the 1st 90 as part of the Nigeria Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Surge initiative, which also included targeted community testing. In this paper we provide an overview of the NAIIS LTC strategy and describe the impact of this strategy on both the NAIIS and the Surge initiatives. METHODS: The NAIIS collaborated with community-based organizations (CBOs) and deployed mobile health (mHealth) technology with real-time dashboards to manage and optimize community LTC for people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed during the survey. In NAIIS, CBOs' role was to facilitate linkage of identified PLHIV in community to facility of their choice. For the ART Surge, we modified the NAIIS LTC strategy by empowering both CBOs and mobile community teams as responsible for not only active LTC but also for community testing, ART initiation, and retention in care. RESULTS: Of the 2,739 PLHIV 15 years and above identified in NAIIS, 1,975 (72.1%) were either unaware of their HIV-positive status (N = 1890) or were aware of their HIV-positive status but not receiving treatment (N = 85). Of these, 1,342 (67.9%) were linked to care, of which 952 (70.9%) were initiated on ART. Among 1,890 newly diagnosed PLHIV, 1,278 (67.6%) were linked to care, 33.7% self-linked and 66.3% were linked by CBOs. Among 85 known PLHIV not on treatment, 64 (75.3%) were linked; 32.8% self-linked and 67.2% were linked by a CBO. In the ART Surge, LTC and treatment initiation rates were 98% and 100%, respectively. Three-month retention for monthly treatment initiation cohorts improved from 76% to 90% over 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Active LTC strategies by local CBOs and mobile community teams improved LTC and ART initiation in the ART Surge initiative. The use of mHealth technology resulted in timely and accurate documentation of results in NAIIS. By deploying mHealth in addition to active LTC, CBOs and mobile community teams could effectively scale up ART with real-time documentation of client-level outcomes.

A mixed-methods assessment of disclosure of HIV status among expert mothers living with HIV in rural Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Peer support provided by experienced and/or trained "expert" women living with HIV has been adopted by prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs across sub-Saharan Africa. While there is ample data on HIV status disclosure among non-expert women, there is little data on disclosure among such expert women, who support other women living with HIV. OBJECTIVE: This study compared HIV disclosure rates between expert and non-expert mothers living with HIV, and contextualized quantitative findings with qualitative data from expert women. METHODS: We compared survey data on HIV disclosure to male partners and family/friends from 37 expert and 100 non-expert mothers living with HIV in rural North-Central Nigeria. Four focus group discussions with expert mothers provided further context on disclosure to male partners, extended family and peers. Chi square and Fisher's exact tests were applied to quantitative data. Qualitative data were manually analyzed using a Grounded Theory approach. RESULTS: Two-thirds of the 137 participants were 21-30 years old; 89.8% were married, and 52.3% had secondary-level education. Disclosure to male partners was higher among expert (100.0%) versus non-expert mothers (85.0%), p = 0.035. Disclosure to anyone (93.1% vs 80.8%, p = 0.156), and knowledge of male partners' HIV status were similar (75.7% versus 66.7%, p = 0.324) between expert and non-expert mothers, respectively. With respect to male partners, HIV serodiscordance rates were also similar (46.4% vs 55.6%, p = 0.433). Group discussions indicated that expert mothers did not consistently disclose to their mentored clients, with community-level stigma and discrimination stated as major reasons for this non-disclosure. CONCLUSIONS: Expert mothers experience similar disclosure barriers as their non-expert peers, especially regarding disclosure outside of intimate relationships. Thus, attention to expert mothers' coping skills and disclosure status, particularly to mentored clients is important to maximize the impact of peer support in PMTCT. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov registration number NCT01936753 (retrospective), September 3, 2013.

The immediate eff ect of the Same-Sex Marriage Prohibition Act on stigma, discrimination, and engagement on HIV prevention and treatment services in men who have sex with men in Nigeria: analysis of prospective data from the TRUST cohort.

BACKGROUND: In January, 2014, the Same-Sex Marriage Prohibition Act was signed into law in Nigeria, further criminalising same-sex sexual relationships. We aimed to assess the immediate effect of this prohibition act on stigma, discrimination, and engagement in HIV prevention and treatment services in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nigeria. METHODS: The TRUST cohort study uses respondent-driven sampling to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of engagement of MSM in HIV prevention and treatment services at a clinical site located with a community-based organisation trusted by the MSM community. TRUST is a prospective implementation research cohort of MSM (≥16 years) in Abuja, Nigeria. We compared HIV clinical outcomes and stigma, including fear and avoidance of health care, across baseline and quarterly visits before and after implementation of the the Same-Sex Marriage Prohibition Act. Outcomes assessed were measures of stigma and discrimination, loss to follow-up, antiretroviral therapy status, and viral load. We compared outcomes before and after the legislation with χ2 statistics, and estimated incident stigma-related events and loss to follow-up with Poisson regression. FINDINGS: Between March 19, 2013, and Aug 7, 2014, 707 MSM participated in baseline study procedures, contributing to 756 before legislation (prelaw) and 420 after legislation (postlaw) visits. Reported history of fear of seeking health care was significantly higher in postlaw visits than in prelaw visits (n=161 [38%] vs n=187 [25%]; p<0・0001), as was avoidance of health care (n=118 [28%] vs n=151 [20%]; p=0・001). In incidence analyses, of 192 MSM with follow-up data and no history of an event at baseline, reported fear of seeking health care was higher in the postlaw than the prelaw period (n=144; incidence rate ratio 2・57, 95% CI 1・29­5・10; p=0・007); loss to follow-up and incident healthcare avoidance were similar across periods. Of the 161 (89%) of 181 HIV-infected MSM with HIV viral loads available, those who had disclosed sexual behaviour with a health-care provider were more often virally suppressed at baseline than those with no previous disclosure (18 [29%] of 62 vs 13 [13%] of 99 men; p=0・013). INTERPRETATION: These analyses represent individual-level, quantitative, real-time prospective data for the health-related effects resulting from the enactment of legislation further criminalising same-sex practices. The negative effects of HIV treatment and care in MSM reinforce the unintended consequences of such legislation on global goals of HIV eradication. Strategies to reach MSM less likely to engage in HIV testing and care in highly stigmatised environments are needed to reduce time to HIV diagnosis and treatment. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Reference values of CD4 T lymphocytes in human immunodeficiency virus-negative adult Nigerians.

A cross-sectional study that involved secondary analysis of data collected from 681 pregnant women and 183 miners (94 men and 89 women; ratio of men to women, 1:0.95) in Jos, Nigeria, was carried out to determine the reference ranges for CD4(+)-cell counts in healthy HIV-negative adult Nigerians. The main results of interest were CD4(+)-cell counts and odds ratios (ORs) of low CD4(+)-cell counts, defined as below 350 cells per microl. CD4(+)-cell counts were similar in men and nonpregnant women, with a mean (standard deviation) of 828 (203) cells per microl, but pregnant women had a lower value of 771 (250) cells per microl. None of the factors assessed was related to the odds of having a low CD4(+)-cell count among men and nonpregnant women, but age, age of marriage, and alcohol usage were significant predictors in pregnant women. Compared to pregnant women less than 20 years old, older women had significantly lower odds of a low CD4(+)-cell count (ORs were 0.06 for women aged 20 to 29 years and 0.22 for those aged 30 to 39 years). When compared with those pregnant women who were married before 20 years of age, those who married at 20 to 29 years and 30 to 39 years had odds ratios of 6.41 and 9.40, respectively. Previous alcohol use was also associated with low CD4(+)-cell counts (OR, 5.15). The 95% confidence interval for CD4(+)-cell counts in healthy adult Nigerians is 547 to 1,327 cells per microl, and this is the first time this has been determined.