RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Tracheobronchial tuberculosis (TBTB), a specific subtype of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), can lead to bronchial stenosis or bronchial occlusion if not identified early. However, there is currently no available means for predicting the risk of associated TBTB in PTB patients. The objective of this study was to establish a risk prediction nomogram model for estimating the associated TBTB risk in every PTB patient. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 2153 PTB patients. Optimised characteristics were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to build a predictive nomogram model. Discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the prediction model were assessed using C-statistics, receiver operator characteristic curves, calibration plots and decision analysis. The developed model was validated both internally and externally. RESULTS: Among all PTB patients who underwent bronchoscopies (n=2153), 40.36% (n=869) were diagnosed with TBTB. A nomogram model incorporating 11 predictors was developed and displayed good discrimination with a C-statistics of 0.782, a sensitivity of 0.661 and a specificity of 0.762 and good calibration with a calibration-in-the-large of 0.052 and a calibration slope of 0.957. Model's discrimination was favourable in both internal (C-statistics, 0.782) and external (C-statistics, 0.806) validation. External validation showed satisfactory accuracy (sensitivity, 0.690; specificity, 0.804) in independent cohort. Decision curve analysis showed that the model was clinically useful when intervention was decided on at the exacerbation possibility threshold of 2.3%-99.2%. A clinical impact curve demonstrated that our model predicted high-risk estimates and true positives. CONCLUSION: We developed a novel and convenient risk prediction nomogram model that enhances the risk assessment of associated TBTB in PTB patients. This nomogram can help identify high-risk PTB patients who may benefit from early bronchoscopy and aggressive treatment to prevent disease progression.
Assuntos
Obstrução das Vias Respiratórias , Tuberculose Pulmonar , Tuberculose , Humanos , Nomogramas , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although the widespread use of modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced the incidence of talaromycosis in people living with HIV, mortality remains as high as 20% in this population, even after appropriate antifungal treatment. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to develop a risk assessment system for HIV-infected patients with comorbid talaromycosis, in order to provide these patients with appropriate, effective and potentially life-saving interventions at an early stage of their illness. PATIENTS/METHODS: This was a multicentre, retrospective cohort study conducted in China. We built a predictive model based on data from 11 hospitals, and a validated model using the data of 1 hospital located in an endemic area. RESULTS: Forward stepwise multivariate statistical calculations indicated that age, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine transaminase ratio and albumin levels, and BUN levels were valid, independent predictors of the risk of death in HIV-infected patients with talaromycosis. Our developed and validated risk scoring system is effective for the identification of HIV-infected patients with talaromycosis at high risk of death at hospital admission (p < .001; AUC = 0.860). In our study, our risk prediction model provided functional and robust discrimination in the validation cohort (p < .001; AUC = 0.793). CONCLUSION: The prognostic scoring system for mortality assessment developed in the present study is an easy-to-use clinical tool designed to accurately assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients with talaromycosis.
Assuntos
Infecções Oportunistas Relacionadas com a AIDS/mortalidade , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Micoses/tratamento farmacológico , Micoses/mortalidade , Infecções Oportunistas Relacionadas com a AIDS/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Idoso , Antifúngicos , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Convalescent plasma (CP) transfusion has been indicated as a promising therapy in the treatment for other emerging viral infections. However, the quality control of CP and individual variation in patients in different studies make it rather difficult to evaluate the efficacy and risk of CP therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to explore the potential efficacy of CP therapy, and to assess the possible factors associated with its efficacy. We enrolled eight critical or severe COVID-19 patients from four centers. Each patient was transfused with 200-400 mL of CP from seven recovered donors. The primary indicators for clinical efficacy assessment were the changes of clinical symptoms, laboratory parameters, and radiological image after CP transfusion. CP donors had a wide range of antibody levels measured by serology tests which were to some degree correlated with the neutralizing antibody (NAb) level. No adverse events were observed during and after CP transfusion. Following CP transfusion, six out of eight patients showed improved oxygen support status; chest CT indicated varying degrees of absorption of pulmonary lesions in six patients within 8 days; the viral load was decreased to a negative level in five patients who had the previous viremia; other laboratory parameters also tended to improve, including increased lymphocyte counts, decreased C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and indicators for liver function. The clinical efficacy might be associated with CP transfusion time, transfused dose, and the NAb levels of CP. This study indicated that CP might be a potential therapy for severe patients with COVID-19.