Health impact assessment of PM2.5 from a planned coal-fired power plant in Taiwan.

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of a planned coal-fired power plant (CFPPT) in Shenao on air quality and health at subnational levels in Taiwan. METHODS: We applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient (GTx) model to estimate annual average PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) increments in 19 Taiwanese cities and counties caused by CFPPT operation. A population health risk assessment was performed by incorporating evidence of the health effects of PM2.5 provided by prospective studies and estimating long-term PM2.5 exposure. Additionally, we considered ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstruct pulmonary disease as the primary outcomes. The population-attributable fraction was used to estimate the county-level mortality burden attributable to CFPPT-generated PM2.5 in 2025. RESULTS: The estimated annual PM2.5 increments ranged from 0.004 µg/m3 (Taitung County) to 0.28 µg/m3 (Hsinchu County) due to the Shenao CFPPT. The total and premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 from Shenao CFPPT operation in Taiwan during 2025-2040 would be 576 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 537-619) and 145 (95% CI: 136-155), respectively. Notably, we estimated 198 (95% CI: 169-234) deaths and 58 (95% CI: 51-66) premature deaths, respectively, in New Taipei City, which accounted for over a quarter of the total deaths. Overall, the mortality rate attributable to the Shenao CFPPT in Taiwan was 6 per 10,000. CONCLUSION: A scientific approach should be adopted for assessing the impacts of CFPPT operation on population health, which can serve as a valuable policymaking reference for the government.

Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with <10(-6)-fold increase in uterus weight and immune response outcomes, respectively. Moreover, our results indicated that there was 50 % risk probability that the response outcomes of CVD, diabetes, and behavior change with or without skin absorption would increase 10(-4)-10(-2)-fold. We conclude that our approach provides a powerful tool for tracking and managing human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.

Fluctuation analysis-based risk assessment for respiratory virus activity and air pollution associated asthma incidence.

Asthma is a growing epidemic worldwide. Exacerbations of asthma have been associated with bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections and air pollution. We correlated the asthma admission rates with fluctuations in respiratory virus activity and traffic-related air pollution, namely particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3). A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed based on a detrended fluctuation analysis to predict future respiratory virus and air pollutant associated asthma incidence. Results indicated a strong association between asthma admission rate and influenza (r=0.80, p<0.05) and SO2 level (r=0.73, p<0.05) in Taiwan in the period 2001-2008. No significant correlation was found for asthma admission and PM10, O3, NO2, and CO. The proposed fluctuation analysis provides a simple correlation exponent describing the complex interactions of respiratory viruses and air pollutants with asthma. This study revealed that there was a 95% probability of having exceeded 2987 asthma admissions per 100,000 population. It was unlikely (30% probability) that the asthma admission rate exceeded 3492 per 100,000 population. The probability of asthma admission risk can be limited to below 50% by keeping the correlation exponent of influenza to below 0.9. We concluded that fluctuation analysis based risk assessment provides a novel predictor of asthma incidence.

Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program.

Low-cost farmed shrimp shells could remove arsenic from solutions kinetically.

The purpose of this study was to explore the ability of shrimp shell to remove arsenic (As) from aqueous solutions by experimental and modeling analyses. The shells of two species of farmed shrimp, black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) and white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei), were chosen to be the sorbents. The results indicate that sorption capacities of black tiger shrimp and white shrimp shells were estimated to be 8.1 x 10(-3) to 5.0 x 10(-1) and 7.8 x 10(-3) to 2.4 x 10(-1)mgg(-1), respectively. Results show that the sorption capacities of the shell of black tiger shrimp did not significantly differ from those of white shrimp by through analysis of variance ANOVA (F=1.50, n=18, P>0.05). This study found that Langmuir and Fruendlich isotherm models described the adsorption processes well (r(2)>0.90). The Langmuir-based maximum adsorption capacity was estimated to be 0.125-0.126 mg g(-1), whereas the Fruendlich-based adsorption capacities ranged from 0.105 to 0.124 mg g(-1). Model analysis based on pseudo-second-order kinetics reveals that sorption capacity of shrimp shell increases with the initial As concentration and retention time in water. Based on isotherm and kinetic analyses, the sorption capacity of shell of black tiger shrimp is slight higher but insignificant than that of shell of white shrimp for As removal from solution. A combination of experiments and modeling suggests that shrimp shell, as a waste material, could be utilized potentially for the removal of As from an aqueous medium. Although the As-removal capacity of shrimp shell was lower than those of natural and chemical sorbents, using shrimp shells as sorbents is less expensive and could increase the additional benefit of shrimp products.

Model-based assessment for human inhalation exposure risk to airborne nano/fine titanium dioxide particles.

This paper proposed a model-based approach to assess inhalation risk levels to manufacturing workers in titanium dioxide (TiO2) production factories. The risk level-based analytical schemes were present for investigations of job-related airborne nano/fine TiO2 dust exposures. A Hill model was used to reconstruct dose-response function based on data from rats exposed by chronic inhalation to poorly soluble fine and nanosized particles. A physiologically based lung model was used to predict surface area-based TiO2 burdens in alveolar surface and interstitial granuloma, respectively. The exposure effect was characterized by polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMN) elevation effect on lung surface and lung tumor proportion on interstitium. Combining laboratory, field, and modeling results, two major findings were proposed to the current epidemiological studies: (i) the estimated median effective surface area-based TiO2 lung burden (EC50) for PMN elevation effect is 0.11 m2 g(-1) lung (95% CI: 0.04-0.2) and EC50 for lung tumor proportion is 1.15 m2 g(-1) lung (95% CI: 0.65-1.89) and (ii) the estimates of risk curves are the pivotal results for public policy. The results demonstrate that packers in US factories have approximately 85.77 fold (95% CI: 63.84-94.33) of standard PMN counts of 10(6), whereas 86.97 fold (95% CI: 66.72-94.54) for surface treatment workers in EU factories at risk of 0.5. The lung had approximately 45% (95% CI: 15%-54%) tumor proportion for packers in US factories, whereas 48.19% (95% CI: 20-53.79%) for surface treatment workers in EU factories at risk of 0.5. The findings point out that dry/wet treatment and ore handlers in US and maintenance mechanics in EU factories were unlikely to pose substantial lung cancer risks.