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1.
Ann Intern Med ; 175(10): 1392-1400, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36191315

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP1) receptor agonists as second-line therapy for patients with type 2 diabetes. Expanding their use as first-line therapy has been proposed but the clinical benefits may not outweigh their costs. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of a strategy of first-line SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP1 receptor agonists. DESIGN: Individual-level Monte Carlo-based Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Randomized trials, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention databases, RED BOOK, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. TARGET POPULATION: Drug-naive U.S. patients with type 2 diabetes. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: First-line SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP1 receptor agonists. OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy, lifetime costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: First-line SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 receptor agonists had lower lifetime rates of congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke compared with metformin. First-line SGLT2 inhibitors cost $43 000 more and added 1.8 quality-adjusted months versus first-line metformin ($478 000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). First-line injectable GLP1 receptor agonists cost more and reduced QALYs compared with metformin. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: By removing injection disutility, first-line GLP1 receptor agonists were no longer dominated (ICER, $327 000 per QALY). Oral GLP1 receptor agonists were not cost-effective (ICER, $823 000 per QALY). To be cost-effective at under $150 000 per QALY, costs for SGLT2 inhibitors would need to be under $5 per day and under $6 per day for oral GLP1 receptor agonists. LIMITATION: U.S. population and costs not generalizable internationally. CONCLUSION: As first-line agents, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 receptor agonists would improve type 2 diabetes outcomes, but their costs would need to fall by at least 70% to be cost-effective. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American Diabetes Association.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Metformina , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose , Análise Custo-Benefício , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/tratamento farmacológico , Peptídeo 1 Semelhante ao Glucagon/uso terapêutico , Receptor do Peptídeo Semelhante ao Glucagon 1 , Glucose/uso terapêutico , Humanos , Hipoglicemiantes , Metformina/uso terapêutico , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Sódio/uso terapêutico , Transportador 2 de Glucose-Sódio/uso terapêutico , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose/uso terapêutico
2.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 10(18): e020330, 2021 09 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34476979

RESUMO

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening is endorsed by certain guidelines for individuals aged ≥65 years. Yet many AF screening strategies exist, including the use of wrist-worn wearable devices, and their comparative effectiveness is not well-understood. Methods and Results We developed a decision-analytic model simulating 50 million individuals with an age, sex, and comorbidity profile matching the United States population aged ≥65 years (ie, with a guideline-based AF screening indication). We modeled no screening, in addition to 45 distinct AF screening strategies (comprising different modalities and screening intervals), each initiated at a clinical encounter. The primary effectiveness measure was quality-adjusted life-years, with incident stroke and major bleeding as secondary measures. We defined continuous or nearly continuous modalities as those capable of monitoring beyond a single time-point (eg, patch monitor), and discrete modalities as those capable of only instantaneous AF detection (eg, 12-lead ECG). In total, 10 AF screening strategies were effective compared with no screening (300-1500 quality-adjusted life-years gained/100 000 individuals screened). Nine (90%) effective strategies involved use of a continuous or nearly continuous modality such as patch monitor or wrist-worn wearable device, whereas 1 (10%) relied on discrete modalities alone. Effective strategies reduced stroke incidence (number needed to screen to prevent a stroke: 3087-4445) but increased major bleeding (number needed to screen to cause a major bleed: 1815-4049) and intracranial hemorrhage (number needed to screen to cause intracranial hemorrhage: 7693-16 950). The test specificity was a highly influential model parameter on screening effectiveness. Conclusions When modeled from a clinician-directed perspective, the comparative effectiveness of population-based AF screening varies substantially upon the specific strategy used. Future screening interventions and guidelines should consider the relative effectiveness of specific AF screening strategies.


Assuntos
Fibrilação Atrial , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Idoso , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Hemorragias Intracranianas , Programas de Rastreamento , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/prevenção & controle , Resultado do Tratamento
3.
JAMA Netw Open ; 2(2): e190047, 2019 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30794300

RESUMO

Importance: Obesity is the most common risk factor for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the progressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Weight loss can be an effective treatment for obesity and may slow the progression of advanced liver disease. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery in patients with NASH and compensated cirrhosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation study used a Markov-based state-transition model to simulate the benefits and risks of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (SG), laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (GB), and intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) compared with usual care in patients with NASH and compensated cirrhosis and varying baseline weight (overweight, mild obesity, moderate obesity, and severe obesity). Patients faced varied risks of perioperative mortality and complications depending on the type of surgery they underwent. Data were collected on March 22, 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (in 2017 $US), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. Results: Demographic characteristics of the patient population were based on a previously published prospective study (n = 161). Patients in the model were 41.0% female, and the base case age was 54 years. Compared with usual care, SG was associated with an increase in QALYs of 0.263 to 1.180 (bounds of ranges represent overweight to severe obesity); GB, 0.263 to 1.207; and ILI, 0.004 to 0.216. Sleeve gastrectomy was also associated with an increase in life-years of 0.693 to 1.930; GB, 0.694 to 1.947; and ILI, 0.012 to 0.114. With usual care, expected life-years in overweight, mild obesity, moderate obesity, and severe obesity were 12.939, 11.949, 10.976, and 10.095, respectively. With usual care, QALY in overweight was 6.418; mild obesity, 5.790; moderate obesity, 5.186; and severe obesity, 4.577. Sleeve gastrectomy was the most cost-effective option for patients across all weight classes assessed: ICER for SG in patients with overweight was $66 119 per QALY; mild obesity, $18 716 per QALY; moderate obesity, $10 274 per QALY; and severe obesity, $6563 per QALY. A threshold analysis on the procedure cost of GB found that for GB to be cost-effective, the cost of the surgery must be decreased from its baseline value of $28 734 by $4889 for mild obesity, by $3189 for moderate obesity, and by $2289 for severe obesity. In overweight patients, GB involved fewer QALYs than SG, and thus decreasing the cost of surgery would not result in cost-effectiveness. Conclusions and Relevance: Bariatric surgery could be highly cost-effective in patients with NASH compensated cirrhosis and obesity or overweight. The findings from this analysis suggest that it can inform clinical trials evaluating the effect of bariatric procedures in patients with NASH cirrhosis, including those with a lower body mass index.


Assuntos
Cirurgia Bariátrica , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica , Cirurgia Bariátrica/economia , Cirurgia Bariátrica/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/economia , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/epidemiologia , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/cirurgia , Estudos Prospectivos , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Resultado do Tratamento
4.
Oncologist ; 24(7): 945-954, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30559125

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX (nFOLFIRINOX) for patients with borderline resectable or locally advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (BR/LA PDAC) are unknown. Our objective was to determine whether nFOLFIRINOX is more effective or cost-effective for patients with BR/LA PDAC compared with upfront resection surgery and adjuvant gemcitabine plus capecitabine (GEM/CAPE) or gemcitabine monotherapy (GEM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a decision-analysis to assess the value of nFOLFIRINOX versus GEM/CAPE or GEM using a mathematical simulation model. Model transition probabilities were estimated using published and institutional clinical data. Model outcomes included overall and disease-free survival, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost in U.S. dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored the uncertainty of model assumptions. RESULTS: Model results found median overall survival (34.5/28.0/22.0 months) and disease-free survival (15.0/14.0/13.0 months) were better for nFOLFIRINOX compared with GEM/CAPE and GEM. nFOLFIRINOX was the optimal strategy on an efficiency frontier, resulting in an additional 0.35 life-years, or 0.30 QALYs, at a cost of $46,200/QALY gained compared with GEM/CAPE. Sensitivity analysis found that cancer recurrence and complete resection rates most affected model results, but were otherwise robust. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses found that nFOLFIRINOX was cost-effective 92.4% of the time at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. CONCLUSION: Our modeling analysis suggests that nFOLFIRINOX is preferable to upfront surgery for patients with BR/LA PDAC from both an effectiveness and cost-effectiveness standpoint. Additional clinical data that further define the long-term effectiveness of nFOLFIRINOX are needed to confirm our results. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Increasingly, neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX has been used for borderline resectable and locally advanced pancreatic cancer with the goal of rendering them resectable and decreasing risk of recurrence. Despite many efforts to show the benefits of neoadjuvant over adjuvant therapies, clinical evidence to guide this decision is largely lacking. Decision-analytic modeling can provide a methodologic platform that integrates the best available data to quantitatively explore clinical decisions by simulating a hypothetical clinical trial. This modeling analysis suggests that neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX is preferable to upfront surgery and adjuvant therapies by various outcome metrics including quality-adjusted life years, overall survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.


Assuntos
Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Ductal Pancreático/tratamento farmacológico , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Terapia Neoadjuvante/mortalidade , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Carcinoma Ductal Pancreático/patologia , Carcinoma Ductal Pancreático/cirurgia , Feminino , Fluoruracila/uso terapêutico , Seguimentos , Humanos , Irinotecano/uso terapêutico , Leucovorina/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/cirurgia , Oxaliplatina/uso terapêutico , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/patologia , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/cirurgia , Prognóstico , Taxa de Sobrevida
5.
Acad Emerg Med ; 24(10): 1235-1243, 2017 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28650086

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Decision making around the use of thrombolysis for patients with intermediate-risk (submassive) pulmonary embolism (PE) remains challenging. Studies indicate favorable clinical outcomes with systemic thrombolytics (intravenous tissue plasminogen activator [IV tPA]), but the risk of major bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke is a deterrent. Catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) may be a preferable strategy, as it has been shown to have a lower risk of bleeding than systemic thrombolysis. However, a three-arm randomized control study comparing IV tPA, CDT, and anticoagulation alone, with long-term follow up, would be costly and is unlikely to be performed. The aim of this study was to use decision modeling to quantitatively estimate the differences between the three strategies. METHODS: We created an individual-level state-transition model to simulate long-term outcomes of a hypothetical patient cohort treated with IV tPA, CDT, or anticoagulation alone. Our model incorporated clinical randomized controlled trial and longitudinal study data to inform patient characteristics and outcomes specific to each study arm. The base case was a 65-year-old patient. Additionally, we utilized preliminary data published by the Pulmonary Embolism Response Team at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Variance in model inputs was addressed with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Our primary endpoint was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Secondary endpoints included total cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Catheter-directed thrombolysis (mean, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.388 [7.381-7.396] QALYs) resulted in the most long-term utility for eligible patients compared to anticoagulation alone (7.352 [7.345-7.360] QALYs) or IV tPA (7.343 [7.336-7.351] QALYs). Patients receiving CDT had an elevated risk of hemorrhagic stroke in comparison to anticoagulation alone; however, patients treated with anticoagulation alone were more likely to experience recurrent PE associated adverse outcomes. Results were stable with sensitivity analyses varying age and sex. Our probabilistic sensitivity analysis assessing joint variance predicts CDT to be the most effective strategy, when measured by mean QALYs, in 98.4% of runs, while systemic thrombolysis was favored over anticoagulation alone 34.4% of the time. The ICER of CDT compared to anticoagulation was $317,042 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: In our model, for those eligible, CDT results in the largest number of QALYs for patients with intermediate-risk PE, although it is relatively expensive and the absolute difference in QALYs between anticoagulation alone and CDT is small. Future studies that provide data on longitudinal quality-of-life outcomes of patients treated for PE and characteristics of CDT would be beneficial to augment model inputs, inform assumptions, and validate results.


Assuntos
Fibrinolíticos/administração & dosagem , Hemorragias Intracranianas/induzido quimicamente , Embolia Pulmonar/tratamento farmacológico , Terapia Trombolítica/métodos , Ativador de Plasminogênio Tecidual/administração & dosagem , Idoso , Feminino , Fibrinolíticos/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Risco , Terapia Trombolítica/economia , Terapia Trombolítica/instrumentação , Fatores de Tempo , Ativador de Plasminogênio Tecidual/efeitos adversos , Resultado do Tratamento
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