How different are accuracies of clinicians' prediction of survival by assessment methods?

BACKGROUND: No standardized method has been established for evaluating the accuracy of a clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS). Till now, no study has compared the accuracy of CPS according to the evaluation methods using the same dataset. We aimed to examine the accuracy of CPS by different statistical approaches in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study. Newly admitted patients with advanced cancer were enrolled in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment. The patients were classified into groups of days (≤7 days) and weeks (≤30 days) based on CPS and actual survival (AS). We evaluated the accuracy of CPS by the distribution, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs), and an estimate ±33% of AS. RESULTS: A total of 2,571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. As for the "days" category, the distribution of AS is larger than that of CPS, however, the results are reversed in the "weeks" category. The AUROCs showed over 80% discrimination for both the "days" and "weeks" categories. Accurate CPS within ±33% of AS was approximately 30% in both "days" and "weeks" categories. CONCLUSIONS: We showed a discrepancy of approximately 30-80% in the accuracy of CPS among three different analysis methods: distribution, AUROC, and AS comparison. Considering the low accuracy of AS comparisons, clinicians should provide a wide range of survival time. CPS was able to effectively discriminate and may be useful for risk stratification.

Cost-effectiveness of Dental Workforce Expansion Through the National Health Service Corps and Its Association With Oral Health Outcomes Among US Children.

Importance: Despite considerable efforts to improve oral health for all, large disparities remain among US children. A dental professional shortage is thought to be among the determinants associated with oral health disparities, particularly for those residing in underserved communities. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expanding the dental workforce through the National Health Service Corps (NHSC) and associations with oral health outcomes among US children. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to estimate changes in total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) produced by increasing the NHSC funding for dental practitioners by 5% to 30% during a 10-year period. A microsimulation model of oral health outcomes using a decision analytic framework was constructed based on oral health and dental care utilization data of US children from 0 to 19 years old. Data from the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2011-2016) were linked to county-level dentist supply and oral health professional shortage areas (HPSAs) information. Changes in prevalence and cumulative incidence of dental caries were also estimated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of results to variation in model input parameters. Data analysis was conducted from August 1, 2021, to November 1, 2022. Exposures: Expanding dental workforce through the NHSC program. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in total QALYs, costs, and dental caries prevalence and cumulative incidence. Results: This simulation model informed by NHANES data of 10 780 participants (mean [SD] age, 9.6 [0.1] years; 5326 [48.8%] female; 3337 [weighted percentage, 57.9%] non-Hispanic White individuals) found that when funding for the NHSC program increased by 10%, dental caries prevalence and total number of decayed teeth were estimated to decrease by 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00) percentage points and by 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.79) million cases, respectively. When funding for the NHSC program increased between 5% and 30%, the estimated decreases in number of decayed teeth ranged from 0.35 (95% CI, 0.27-0.44) to 2.11 (95% CI, 2.03-2.20) million cases, total QALY gains ranged from 75.76 (95% CI, 59.44-92.08) to 450.50 (95% CI, 434.30-466.69) thousand QALYs, and total cost savings ranged from $105.53 (95% CI, $70.14-$140.83) to $508.23 (95% CI, $598.91-$669.22) million among children residing in dental HPSAs from a health care perspective. Benefits of the intervention accrued most substantially among Hispanic children and children in low-income households. Conclusions and Relevance: This cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytic model suggests that expanding the dental workforce through the NHSC program would be associated with cost savings and a reduced risk of dental caries among children living in HPSAs.

Increasing HPV vaccination coverage to prevent oropharyngeal cancer: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) has been rising, especially among middle-aged men. While Human Papillomavirus (HPV) has been irrevocably implicated in the pathogenesis of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), the current HPV vaccination uptake rate remains low in the US. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of increased HPV vaccination coverage on HPV-associated OPC incidence and costs. A decision analytic model was constructed for hypothetical cohorts of 9-year-old boys and girls. Two strategies were compared: 1) Maintaining the current vaccination uptake rates; 2) Increasing HPV vaccination uptake rates to the Healthy People 2030 target (80%) for both sexes. Increasing HPV vaccination coverage rates to 80% would be expected to prevent 5,339 OPC cases at a cost of $0.57 billion USD. Increased HPV vaccination coverage would result in 7,430 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains in the overall population, and it is estimated to be cost-effective for males with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $86,940 per QALY gained under certain conditions. Expanding HPV vaccination rates would likely provide a cost-effective way to reduce the OPC incidence, particularly among males.

Assessment of Changes in Symptoms Is Feasible and Prognostic in the Last Weeks of Life: An International Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: Symptoms are not typically part of established various prognostic factors and scoring systems but are among the most frequently assessed issues in patient care. Objectives: To evaluate that, changes in symptoms can provide additional useful prognostic information. Design: A secondary analysis of an international cohort study in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Setting/Subjects: Subjects were adult patients with advanced cancer (n = 2074) who were admitted to 37 palliative care units (PCUs) in 3 countries from January 2017 to September 2018. Measurements: Symptoms (dyspnea, fatigue, dry mouth, and drowsiness) were assessed at admission and one-week later. Dyspnea was assessed by the presence of resting and exertional dyspnea, whereas other symptoms were assessed using the Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scales (IPOS) (range 0-4). For analysis, we grouped patients by symptom change, as either Improved, Stable, or Worsened (by having at least a one increment decrease, no change, or at least a one increment increase, respectively). Results: Worsened groups had the shortest survival (median survival 15-21 days) compared with those with Improved (median survival 23-31 days) and Stable symptoms (median survival 27-29 days) across all four symptoms (dyspnea, fatigue, dry mouth, and drowsiness). Survival differences were statistically significantly different across all three groups for all symptoms (all p < 0.001). Interestingly, Improved symptoms were associated with similar survival compared with Stable groups, with no statistical differences. Conclusions: Worsened symptoms at one week after admission were useful predictors of survival for patients with advanced cancer in PCUs during the final weeks of life. Longitudinal assessments are needed to reflect passage of time as well as impact of treatments.

Measuring the quality of dental care among privately insured children in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether quality of dental care varies by age and over time and whether community-level characteristics explain these patterns. DATA SOURCE: Deidentified medical and dental claims from a commercial insurer from January 2015 to December 2019. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. The primary outcome was a composite quality score, derived from seven dental quality measures (DQMs), with higher values corresponding to better quality. Hierarchical regression models identified person- and zip code-level factors associated with the quality. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Continuously enrolled US dental insurance beneficiaries younger than 21 years of age. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Quality was assessed for 4.88 million person-years covering 1.31 million persons. Overall quality slightly improved over time, mostly driven by substantial improvements among children aged 0-5 years by 0.153 points/year (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.151, 0.156). Quality was poorest and declined over time among adolescents with only 20.5% of DQMs met as compared to 42.6% among aged 0-5 years in 2019. Dental professional shortage, median household income, percentages of African Americans, unemployed, and less-educated populations at the zip code level were associated with the composite score. CONCLUSION: Quality of dental care among adolescents remains low, and place of residence influenced the quality. Increasing the supply of dentists and oral health promotion strategies targeting adolescents and low-performing localities should be explored.

Changes in dental care use patterns due to COVID-19 among insured patients in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Demand for dental services has been known to be linked closely to dental insurance and disposable income. Widespread economic uncertainty and health systems changes due to COVID-19 thus may have a significant impact on dental care use. METHODS: Using deidentified dental practice management data from 2019 and 2020, the authors observed variations in dental care use among insured patients since the COVID-19 outbreak (during the period of practice closure and after the reopening) by patient age, procedure type, insurance type, practice size, geographic area, and reopening status. The authors examined whether the rebound in procedure volumes at dental practices can be explained by county-level characteristics using hierarchical regression models. RESULTS: Although dental care use among privately insured patients fully rebounded by August 2020, use still remained lower than the prepandemic level by 7.54% among the publicly insured population. Demand for teledentistry increased 60-fold during practice closure. Geographic characteristics-such as median household income, percentages of rural or Black populations, and dental care professional shortage designations-were associated significantly with the number of procedures performed at dental practices. CONCLUSIONS: As a result of COVID-19, dental practices experienced substantial decreases in procedure volume, particularly among patients covered by public insurance or residing in underserved areas. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: During economic downturns, state health officials should be encouraged to adopt policies to expand access to oral health care for vulnerable populations via oral health promotion strategies and increasing the supply of dentists or midlevel dental care providers in underserved areas.

Impact of Restricting Sugar-Sweetened Beverages From the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program on Children's Health.

INTRODUCTION: Children enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are at higher risk of poor diet, including higher intake of sugar-sweetened beverages than non-Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participants. This study aims to identify the impact of restricting sugar-sweetened beverage purchases with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits on children's consumption and health. METHODS: Using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation and dietary data of children (aged 2-19 years) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2016), a microsimulation model was constructed to assess expected changes in daily sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, total calorie intake, BMI, incidence of dental caries, and obesity prevalence of 2019 U.S. children over a 10-year period, incorporating differences in food consumption and disease risks between the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the general U.S. POPULATIONS: Sensitivity analyses were conducted with various food substitution patterns and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation characteristics. Analysis was performed in 2019. RESULTS: Sugar-sweetened beverage restriction in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program was estimated to reduce daily sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 112.5 g/person (95% CI= -115.9, -109.2), which was estimated to decrease the number of decayed teeth by 0.53/person (95% CI= -0.55, -0.51), an 8.0% decline from the baseline. If sugar-sweetened beverages were substituted with fruit juice and milk, the restriction would be expected to reduce daily total calorie intake by 39.2 kcal/person (95% CI= -39.8, -38.7), resulting 2.6 kg/m2 (95% CI= -2.9, -2.4) decrease in BMI and a 6.2 percentage point (95% CI= -6.5, -5.8) decrease in obesity prevalence among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participants. Estimated changes in total calorie intake and obesity were subject to food substitution patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting sugar-sweetened beverage purchases in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program could promote a healthier diet and significantly lower the incidence of dental caries and potentially obesity prevalence in children.

Association of income inequality with orthodontic treatment use.

BACKGROUND: Income inequality has been associated with worse oral health outcomes and reduced dental care use. It is unknown whether income inequality may motivate people to seek orthodontic treatment. METHODS: This was a logistic mixed-effects model of deidentified claims from a private insurer in the United States with enrolled members having at least 1 orthodontic visit in the calendar year as the dependent variable. Total number of dental visits, age, and sex were individual-level covariates. Median household income, Gini coefficient, female population proportion, number of practicing dentists and orthodontists, population size, and population density were zip code-level covariates. RESULTS: A total of 1,860,709 people had at least 1 orthodontic claim. Adjusting for population demographics, the Gini index was significantly positively associated with orthodontic use for children but not for adults (odds ratio, 1.69 for children; P < .0001). Being female was the strongest predictor of orthodontic use for adults and was a significant predictor of use for children (odds ratio, 1.50 and 1.45, respectively; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The Gini index is associated with orthodontic use in children in a privately insured population. Individual characteristics are more predictive of orthodontic use among privately insured adults. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Demographic and economic traits of communities can affect oral health care use; effects on orthodontic use may be more dramatic than on other forms of oral health care.

Dental Practice Integration into Primary Care: A Microsimulation of Financial Implications for Practices.

Given the widespread lack of access to dental care for many vulnerable Americans, there is a growing realization that integrating dental and primary care may provide comprehensive care. We sought to model the financial impact of integrating dental care provision into a primary care practice. A microsimulation model was used to estimate changes in net revenue per practice by simulating patient visits to a primary dental practice within primary care practices, utilizing national survey and un-identified claims data from a nationwide health insurance plan. The impact of potential changes in utilization rates and payer distributions and hiring additional staff was also evaluated. When dental care services were provided in the primary care setting, annual net revenue changes per practice were -$92,053 (95% CI: -93,054, -91,052) in the first year and $104,626 (95% CI: 103,315, 105,316) in subsequent years. Net revenue per annum after the first year of integration remained positive as long as the overall utilization rates decreased by less than 25%. In settings with a high proportion of publicly insured patients, the net revenue change decreased but was still positive. Integrating primary dental and primary care providers would be financially viable, but this viability depends on demands of dental utilization and payer distributions.

Impact of Treating Oral Disease on Preventing Vascular Diseases: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Periodontal Treatment Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Some payers in the U.S. have started covering nonsurgical periodontal treatment for those with chronic conditions, such as diabetes. We sought to identify the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to estimate lifetime costs and health gains using a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, T2D, T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD of the U.S. POPULATION: Model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2009-2014) and randomized trials of periodontal treatment among patients with T2D. RESULTS: Expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis would be expected to avert tooth loss by 34.1% (95% CI -39.9, -26.5) and microvascular diseases by 20.5% (95% CI -31.2, -9.1), 17.7% (95% CI -32.7, -4.7), and 18.4% (95% CI -34.5, -3.5) for nephropathy, neuropathy, and retinopathy, respectively. Providing periodontal treatment to the target population would be cost saving from a health care perspective at a total net savings of $5,904 (95% CI -6,039, -5,769) with an estimated gain of 0.6 quality-adjusted life years per capita (95% CI 0.5, 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Providing nonsurgical periodontal treatment to patients with T2D and periodontitis would be expected to significantly reduce tooth loss and T2D-related microvascular diseases via improved glycemic control. Encouraging patients with T2D and poor oral health conditions to receive periodontal treatment would improve health outcomes and still be cost saving or cost-effective.

Performance of the revised 2016 fibromyalgia diagnostic criteria in Korean patients with fibromyalgia.

AIM: Recently, the revised 2016 version of the 2010/2011 fibromyalgia (FM) criteria was released. No study has yet assessed whether the 2016 criteria perform better than the previous criteria. Therefore, we validated a Korean version of the revised FM criteria and explored whether they were better than the previous criteria in terms of diagnostic accuracy. METHODS: We enrolled 86 FM patients and 89 patients with various rheumatological disorders, including rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, osteoarthritis, and myofascial pain syndrome. All patients were invited to complete a questionnaire that included the revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D), and the Multidimensional Health Assessment Questionnaire (MD-HAQ). RESULTS: The test-retest reliability of the revised criteria was assessed in 30 patients after 2 weeks; the Spearman coefficient ranged from 0.616 to 0.910 and the Cronbach's alpha was 0.942 (95% CI: 0.930-0.964). The revised criteria correlated significantly with the revised FIQ score (P < .001), the EQ-5D score (P < .001), and the MD-HAQ score (P < .001). Using the revised criteria, FM was diagnosed in 94.2% of patients with a prior diagnosis of FM, and in 10.1% of those with other rheumatological disorders. The sensitivity and specificity of the revised criteria were 93.1% and 90.7%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the revised criteria was 0.966, higher than those of the 1990, 2010, and 2011 criteria. CONCLUSION: The revised criteria are reliable and valid when used to diagnose patients with FM, and are better than the previous criteria.

Dynamic treatment selection and modification for personalised blood pressure therapy using a Markov decision process model: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Personalised medicine seeks to select and modify treatments based on individual patient characteristics and preferences. We sought to develop an automated strategy to select and modify blood pressure treatments, incorporating the likelihood that patients with different characteristics would benefit from different types of medications and dosages and the potential severity and impact of different side effects among patients with different characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We developed a Markov decision process (MDP) model to incorporate meta-analytic data and estimate the optimal treatment for maximising discounted lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on individual patient characteristics, incorporating medication adjustment choices when a patient incurs side effects. We compared the MDP to current US blood pressure treatment guidelines (the Eighth Joint National Committee, JNC8) and a variant of current guidelines that incorporates results of a major recent trial of intensive treatment (Intensive JNC8). We used a microsimulation model of patient demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors and side effect probabilities, sampling from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003-2014), to compare the expected population outcomes from adopting the MDP versus guideline-based strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs and QALYs for the MDP-based treatment (MDPT), JNC8 and Intensive JNC8 strategies. RESULTS: Compared with the JNC8 guideline, the MDPT strategy would be cost-saving from a societal perspective with discounted savings of US$1187 per capita (95% CI 1178 to 1209) and an estimated discounted gain of 0.06 QALYs per capita (95% CI 0.04 to 0.08) among the US adult population. QALY gains would largely accrue from reductions in severe side effects associated with higher treatment doses later in life. The Intensive JNC8 strategy was dominated by the MDPT strategy. CONCLUSIONS: An MDP-based approach can aid decision-making by incorporating meta-analytic evidence to personalise blood pressure treatment and improve overall population health compared with current blood pressure treatment guidelines.

Cost-effectiveness of malaria preventive treatment for HIV-infected pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa: at least 1 million pregnancies among HIV-infected women are complicated by co-infection with malaria annually, leading to increased risk of premature delivery, severe anaemia, delivery of low birth weight infants, and maternal death. Current guidelines recommend either daily cotrimoxazole (CTX) or intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) for HIV-infected pregnant women to prevent malaria and its complications. The cost-effectiveness of CTX compared to IPTp-SP among HIV-infected pregnant women was assessed. METHODS: A microsimulation model of malaria and HIV among pregnant women in five malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa was constructed. Four strategies were compared: (1) 2-dose IPTp-SP at current IPTp-SP coverage of the country ("2-IPT Low"); (2) 3-dose IPTp-SP at current coverage ("3-IPT Low"); (3) 3-dose IPTp-SP at the same coverage as antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the country ("3-IPT High"); and (4) daily CTX at ART coverage. Outcomes measured include maternal malaria, anaemia, low birth weight (LBW), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Sensitivity analyses assessed the effect of adherence to CTX. RESULTS: Compared with the 2-IPT Low Strategy, women receiving CTX had 22.5% fewer LBW infants (95% CI 22.3-22.7), 13.5% fewer anaemia cases (95% CI 13.4-13.5), and 13.6% fewer maternal malaria cases (95% CI 13.6-13.7). In all simulated countries, CTX was the preferred strategy, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from cost-saving to $3.9 per DALY averted from a societal perspective. CTX was less effective than the 3-IPT High Strategy when more than 18% of women stopped taking CTX during the pregnancy. CONCLUSION: In malarious regions of sub-Saharan Africa, daily CTX for HIV-infected pregnant women regardless of CD4 cell count is cost-effective compared with 3-dose IPTp-SP as long as more than 82% of women adhere to daily dosing.

Cost Effectiveness of Subsidizing Fruit and Vegetable Purchases Through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

INTRODUCTION: A diet high in fruits and vegetables (FV) is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. One strategy to incentivize FV consumption among low-income households is to make them more affordable through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This study aims to identify the cost effectiveness of subsidizing FV purchases among the one in seven Americans who participate in SNAP. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a societal perspective to estimate lifetime costs and health gains associated with subsidizing FV purchases. A stochastic microsimulation model of obesity, type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke in the 2015 U.S. population was used. Model parameters were based on nationally representative SNAP participation and dietary consumption data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003-2012), and data from a randomized trial of FV subsidies among SNAP users. RESULTS: Despite cycling of participants in and out of SNAP, expanding an FV subsidy nationwide through SNAP would be expected to reduce incidence of type 2 diabetes by 1.7% (95% CI=1.2, 2.2), myocardial infarction by 1.4% (95% CI=0.9, 1.9), stroke by 1.2% (95% CI=0.8, 1.6), and obesity by 0.2% (95% CI=0.1, 0.3), and be cost saving from a societal perspective. The saved costs would be largely attributable to long-term reductions in type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests nationwide SNAP FV subsidies would reduce chronic disease morbidity, mortality, and costs over long time horizons that are unlikely to be observed in short-term community-based trials.

High-resolution microendoscopy for esophageal cancer screening in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIM: To study the cost-effectiveness of high-resolution microendoscopy (HRME) in an esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening program in China. METHODS: A decision analytic Markov model of ESCC was developed. Separate model analyses were conducted for cohorts consisting of an average-risk population or a high-risk population in China. Hypothetical 50-year-old individuals were followed until age 80 or death. We compared three different strategies for both cohorts: (1) no screening; (2) standard endoscopic screening with Lugol's iodine staining; and (3) endoscopic screening with Lugol's iodine staining and an HRME. Model parameters were estimated from the literature as well as from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide cancer database. Health states in the model included non-neoplasia, mild dysplasia, moderate dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia, intramucosal carcinoma, operable cancer, inoperable cancer, and death. Separate ESCC incidence transition rates were generated for the average-risk and high-risk populations. Costs in Chinese currency were converted to international dollars (I$) and were adjusted to 2012 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. RESULTS: The main outcome measurements for this study were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). For the average-risk population, the HRME screening strategy produced 0.043 more QALYs than the no screening strategy at an additional cost of I$646, resulting in an ICER of I$11808 per QALY gained. Standard endoscopic screening was weakly dominated. Among the high-risk population, when the HRME screening strategy was compared with the standard screening strategy, the ICER was I$8173 per QALY. For both the high-risk and average-risk screening populations, the HRME screening strategy appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy, producing ICERs below the willingness-to-pay threshold, I$23500 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that, for the average-risk population, higher specificity of Lugol's iodine (> 40%) and lower specificity of HRME (< 70%) could make Lugol's iodine screening cost-effective. For the high-risk population, the results of the model were not substantially affected by varying the follow-up rate after Lugol's iodine screening, Lugol's iodine test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity), or HRME specificity. CONCLUSION: The incorporation of HRME into an ESCC screening program could be cost-effective in China. Larger studies of HRME performance are needed to confirm these findings.

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds. METHODS: We used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy. RESULTS: Programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility. CONCLUSIONS: Current and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population.

Racial differences between African Americans and Asian Americans in the effect of 6-n-propylthiouracil taste intensity and food liking on body mass index.

Taste intensity to 6-n-propylthiouracil (PROP) has been demonstrated to affect food acceptance and food intake. Because most PROP status research has been performed among predominantly white subjects, research is needed to test the effects of PROP taste intensity on food acceptance and body weight among racial minorities. This study was conducted to examine racial differences in the effect of PROP taste intensity and food liking on body mass index between African Americans and Asian Americans. A cross-sectional design with a sample of 50 African Americans (25 women, 25 men) and 50 Asian Americans (23 women, 27 men) in the New York City area aged 18 to 55 years was used in this study. Weight and height were measured and PROP intensity was assessed using PROP filter paper disks. Subjects rated the intensity of 171.15 g/L (0.5 mol/L) sucrose, 29.22 g/L (0.5 mol/L) sodium chloride, 4.8 g/L (0.025 mol/L) citric acid, and 0.127 g/L (3.2×10⁻4 mol/L) quinine solutions and completed a questionnaire to report their food liking/disliking for 19 food items. Characteristics were compared using analysis of variance or χ² test. A multiple linear regression model was fit with the covariates PROP mean, race, sex, age, fat-foods liking, and sweet-foods liking to predict body mass index score. The proportion of total nontasters was 22%. There were no significant differences in the PROP status distribution between African Americans and Asian Americans and in food likings between tasters and nontasters. Significant differences in fat foods, sugar, and black coffee liking were observed among the subracial groups (ie, African Caribbean, African black, East Asian, and South Asian). Race, sex, and age significantly contributed to predict body mass index score.

Benefits and harms of computed tomography lung cancer screening strategies: a comparative modeling study for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

BACKGROUND: The optimum screening policy for lung cancer is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To identify efficient computed tomography (CT) screening scenarios in which relatively more lung cancer deaths are averted for fewer CT screening examinations. DESIGN: Comparative modeling study using 5 independent models. DATA SOURCES: The National Lung Screening Trial; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening trial; the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program; and the U.S. Smoking History Generator. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. cohort born in 1950. TIME HORIZON: Cohort followed from ages 45 to 90 years. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: 576 scenarios with varying eligibility criteria (age, pack-years of smoking, years since quitting) and screening intervals. OUTCOME MEASURES: Benefits included lung cancer deaths averted or life-years gained. Harms included CT examinations, false-positive results (including those obtained from biopsy/surgery), overdiagnosed cases, and radiation-related deaths. RESULTS OF BEST-CASE SCENARIO: The most advantageous strategy was annual screening from ages 55 through 80 years for ever-smokers with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years and ex-smokers with less than 15 years since quitting. It would lead to 50% (model ranges, 45% to 54%) of cases of cancer being detected at an early stage (stage I/II), 575 screening examinations per lung cancer death averted, a 14% (range, 8.2% to 23.5%) reduction in lung cancer mortality, 497 lung cancer deaths averted, and 5250 life-years gained per the 100,000-member cohort. Harms would include 67,550 false-positive test results, 910 biopsies or surgeries for benign lesions, and 190 overdiagnosed cases of cancer (3.7% of all cases of lung cancer [model ranges, 1.4% to 8.3%]). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The number of cancer deaths averted for the scenario varied across models between 177 and 862; the number of overdiagnosed cases of cancer varied between 72 and 426. LIMITATIONS: Scenarios assumed 100% screening adherence. Data derived from trials with short duration were extrapolated to lifetime follow-up. CONCLUSION: Annual CT screening for lung cancer has a favorable benefit-harm ratio for individuals aged 55 through 80 years with 30 or more pack-years' exposure to smoking. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Statins and aspirin for chemoprevention in Barrett's esophagus: results of a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Data suggest that aspirin, statins, or a combination of the two drugs may lower the progression of Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, aspirin is associated with potential complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke, and statins are associated with myopathy. We developed a simulation disease model to study the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of aspirin and statin chemoprevention against esophageal adenocarcinoma. A decision analytic Markov model was constructed to compare four strategies for Barrett's esophagus management; all regimens included standard endoscopic surveillance regimens: (i) endoscopic surveillance alone, (ii) aspirin therapy, (iii) statin therapy, and (iv) combination therapy of aspirin and statin. Endpoints evaluated were life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of model input uncertainty on results. Assuming an annual progression rate of 0.33% per year from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma, aspirin therapy was more effective and cost less than (dominated) endoscopic surveillance alone. When combination therapy was compared with aspirin therapy, the ICER was $158,000/QALY, which was above our willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Statin therapy was dominated by combination therapy. When higher annual cancer progression rates were assumed in the model (0.5% per year), combination therapy was cost-effective compared with aspirin therapy, producing an ICER of $96,000/QALY. In conclusion, aspirin chemoprevention was both more effective and cost less than endoscopic surveillance alone. Combination therapy using both aspirin and statin is expensive but could be cost-effective in patients at higher risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma.