Prospective 5-Year Analysis of the United States Radiation Oncology Job Market Using the ASTRO Career Center Website.

PURPOSE: We provide 5-year results of prospectively collected radiation oncology (RO) job opportunities and a longitudinal assessment of RO graduate numbers within the United States. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Full-time domestic RO job opportunities were collected and categorized using the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Career Center from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2021. A chi-square test was used to compare regional job availability by city size and position type. The corresponding number of graduating United States (US) RO residents (2017-2021) was collected. US census and Medicare database resources were used as comparators for population and workforce estimates. Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to examine changes in data over time and a 2-tailed t test was used to assess for statistical significance. RESULTS: Over the 5-year study period, 819 unique job offers were posted, compared with 935 RO graduates (0.88 total jobs-to-graduates ratio). Most jobs were nonacademic (57.6%), located in populated areas >1 million (57.1%; median: 1.57M), with the largest proportion of jobs seen in the South region (32.4%). One-third of academic jobs were located at satellites. Regional differences were seen between academic versus nonacademic job availability (P < .01), with the highest proportion of academic jobs seen in the Northeast (60.3%) and the lowest in the Midwest (34.5%). Differences between regions were also observed for jobs in areas >1 million versus ≤1 million (P < .01), with the most jobs in areas >1 million seen in the West (64.6%) and the least in the South (51.3%). Regional job availability over time did not differ by position type (academic vs nonacademic) or population area size (P = .11 and P = .27, respectively). Annual graduate numbers increased with time (P = .02), with the highest percentage of graduates trained in the South (30.8%). Regional distribution of jobs versus graduates significantly differed (P < .01) with the lowest jobs-to-graduates ratio observed in the Northeast (0.67) and highest ratio in the West (1.07). Regional RO workforce estimates based on the 4336 radiation oncologists who were Medicare providers in 2020 were compared with total jobs and graduates by region with no difference observed between the distributions of the workforce and jobs (P = .39), but comparisons between the workforce and graduates were proportionally different (P < .01). The number of total jobs (vs graduates) per 10 million population in the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West were 30.2 (45.1), 21.0 (22.7), 30.6 (33.4), and 22.6 (21.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This multiyear quantitative assessment of the RO job market and graduates identified fewer job opportunities than graduates overall in most regions, most notably in the Northeast. Regional differences were seen between available job type (academic vs nonacademic) and population size (>1 million vs ≤1 million). The findings are worrisome for trainee oversupply and geographic maldistribution. The number and distribution of RO trainees and residency programs across the US should be evaluated to minimize job market imbalance for future graduates, promote workforce stability, and continue to meet the future societal needs of patients with cancer.

US Primary Care vs Specialty Care Trainee Positions and Physician Incomes: Trends From 2001 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Much of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and subsequent US health care policies were designed to address deficiencies in health care access and enhance primary care services. How residency positions and physician incomes have changed in the post-ACA era is not well characterized. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the growth of US trainee positions and physician income, in the pre- vs post-ACA environment by specialty and among primary care vs specialty care. METHODS: Total resident complement by specialty and year was extracted from the National Graduate Medical Education (GME) Census and stratified into primary care vs specialty care. Median incomes were extracted from Medical Group Management Association surveys. Piecewise linear regression with interaction terms (pre-ACA, 2001-2010, vs post-ACA, 2011-2019) assessed growth rate by specialty and growth rate differences between primary care and specialty care. Sensitivity analyses were performed by focusing on family medicine and excluding additional GME positions contributed by the introduction of the 2015 single GME accreditation system. RESULTS: Resident complements increased for primary care (+0.16%/year pre-ACA to +2.06%/year post-ACA, P < .001) and specialty care (+1.49%/year to +2.07%/year, P = .005). Specialty care growth outpaced primary care pre-ACA (P < .001) but not post-ACA (P = .10). Family medicine had the largest increase in the pre- vs post-ACA era (-0.77%/year vs +2.09%/year, P < .001). Excluding positions contributed by the single GME accreditation system transition did not result in any statistically significant changes to the findings. Income growth increased for primary care (+0.84%/year to +1.37%/year, P = .044), but decreased for specialty care (+1.44%/year to +0.49%/year, P = .011). Specialty care income growth outpaced primary care pre-ACA (P < .001), but not post-ACA (P = .22). CONCLUSIONS: We found significant growth differences in resident complement and income among primary care versus specialty care in the pre-/post-ACA eras.

United States Radiation Oncology Fellowship Growth From 2010 to 2020.

PURPOSE: To provide a comprehensive analysis of radiation oncology (RO) fellowship growth from 2010 to 2020. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A collated database of RO fellowship programs and matriculants was created using (1) RO residency program (n = 92) and graduate (n = 2082) web searches, (2) prospective American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Career Center postings database, (3) Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology Fellowship Directory, (4) RO fellowship survey data, (5) ASTRO Membership Directory, and (6) direct e-mail contact with fellowship program directors. Linear regression was used to assess the statistical significance of RO fellowship program, position, and matriculant growth over time. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2020, the number of RO fellowship programs and annual positions significantly increased from 20 to 37 (1.60 increase per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.89; P < .001) and 20 to 39 (1.81 increase per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-2.10; P < .001), respectively. The most commonly offered fellowship disciplines were proton therapy (n = 10), brachytherapy (n = 7), stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy (n = 6), general RO (n = 5), and customizable to trainees' interests (n = 3). Only 10 (27%) fellowships had a formal curriculum. All fellowships were unaccredited. Four (10.8%) programs were offered at institutions without an Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited RO residency training program, all established within the past 2 years. In addition, 54.8% (171 of 312) of available fellowship positions were filled between 2010 to 2020. Of these, 94 (55.0%) were graduates of US RO residency programs. The mean number of total fellows and US-residency trained fellows per year was 15 (range, 5-23) and 8 (range, 2-20), respectively. There was no significant increase in the number of annual matriculated fellows over time (P = .077). Among US-residency trained fellows, 27 (28.7%), 37 (39.4%), and 29 (30.9%) were from small (≤6), medium (7-12), and large (>12) residency programs, respectively. Twenty-eight (29.8%), 13 (13.8%), 25 (26.6%), and 27 (28.7%) trained in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There has been significant growth in unaccredited RO fellowship programs and annual positions during the past decade, although the number of matriculants has remained stable. We report for the first time the recent establishment of fellowships at institutions without an Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited RO residency program. The impact of fellowship programs on the training of RO residents should be studied.