Reallocation of water resources according to social, economic, and environmental parameters.

Population growth, urbanization, and industrial development have significantly increased water demands in many countries, raising the concerns about water resources sustainability to meet the needs of humans and the environment. Furthermore, the economy-oriented allocation of water resources has caused many socio-environmental problems. The main goal of this study is to develop a system dynamics modeling framework that integrates economic, social, and environmental dimensions for the decision of water resources allocation. The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to rank modeling scenarios and identify the best strategy for water allocation. In the application to East Azerbaijan province of Iran, six industry groups (including chemical, food and beverage, non-metal, machinery and equipment, metal, and textile), thirteen water allocation scenarios, and five criteria (including profit index, employment index, return of surface water, groundwater sustainability index, and total allocated water) were considered. The TOPSIS results showed that in the best scenario most water was allocated to the non-metal industry with a relative distance of 0.63 to the ideal solution. On the other hand, the current water allocation scenario ranked seventh, indicating that significant improvements are required to take into account the social, economic, and environmental factors for optimal reallocation of water resources among different industry users.

Assessment of potential of intraregional conflicts by developing a transferability index for inter-basin water transfers, and their impacts on the water resources.

Rapid population growth, rising water demands, inefficient management, and various distributions of water are the major causes of increased pressure on water resources and the consequent increased water-based conflicts especially in arid and semi-arid regions in Iran being a case in point. Iran is the second largest country in the Middle East. The country-wide average annual precipitation is about 250 mm, which is about one third of the world's average. Therefore, Iran is one of the driest countries in the world. The water supply for human activities in Iran's provinces has become an increasingly complex task. One of the conventional methods to supply water to these regions is through inter-basin water transfers, from water-endowed regions to water-scarce regions. For such projects, it is necessary but also difficult and expensive to estimate the total water storage of every province with traditional methods. This study employs the GRACE satellite data for 2002-2016 are used and develops a method to assess the linkage between water scarcity and conflicts in Iran's provinces. In addition, a transferability index is formulated based on population and conveyable water parameters demonstrating the conditions of the provinces in inter-basin water transfer for reaching equitable compromises. This index leads to an evaluation of the possibility of conflicts arising from inter-basin water transfer projects in Iran. This work's results show that the Bushehr region has a significant amount of conveyable water and low population and hence is suitable to be one of the water-exporting provinces in the inter-basin water projects. The results of this work also demonstrate that the western provinces are likely to experience serious depletion of water resources, and conflicts may arise in the western and central basins due to the changes in water quantity exacerbated by the inter-basin transfer projects.

Sleep disturbances and risk of falls in an old Chinese population-Rugao Longevity and Ageing Study.

BACKGROUND: To explore the relationship between sleep disturbances and falls in an elderly Chinese population. METHODS: Data from 1726 individuals aged 70-87 years from the Rugao Longevity and Ageing Study were used. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) was used to assess sleep variables. Outcomes were falls ≥1 time per year and falls ≥2 times per year. RESULTS: A total of 22.7% of the participants experienced ≥1 fall, and 9.8% experienced ≥2 falls per year. Poor sleep quality was associated with ≥1 fall (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.05-1.12; OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.14-1.41) and ≥2 falls (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14; OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.10-1.48), with an increase per PSQI score and SD PSQI score, respectively. In addition, sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep efficiency, and sleep disturbance subcomponents were associated with an increased risk of ≥1 fall with ORs of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.21-1.72), 1.23 (95%CI,1.09-1.40), 1.12 (95%CI, 1.01-1.23) and 1.70 (95% CI,1.35-2.14), respectively, and were associated with an increased risk of ≥2 falls with ORs 1.54 (95%CI, 1.22-1.96), 1.21(95%CI, 1.02-1.44), 1.17 (95% CI 1.02-1.33), and 1.78 (95%CI, 1.31-2.44), respectively. Further, participants slept ≤5h per night had an increased risk of ≥1 fall (OR 2.34; 95%CI, 1.59-3.46) and ≥2 falls (OR 2.19; 95%CI, 1.30-3.69). CONCLUSIONS: Poor sleep quality and several subcomponent sleep symptoms were consistently associated with increased risk of falls ≥1 time and ≥2 times in Chinese elderly. The identification of sleep disturbances may help identify high-risk Chinese elders who may benefit from fall prevention education.

Agreement between the frailty index and phenotype and their associations with falls and overnight hospitalizations.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to examine the agreement between two commonly used frailty measurements (frailty index and phenotype) and their associations with falls and overnight hospitalizations in a community-based population. METHODS: Data was collected from 1663 elderly adults (aged 70-84 years) from the aging arm of the Rugao Longevity and Ageing study, a two-arm cohort conducted in Rugao, China. Items concerning the frailty index and phenotype, falls and overnight hospitalizations were collected. RESULTS: The Kappa agreement examining three levels of these two frailty measurements was 0.310 (95% CI: 0.277-0.343) according to the frailty index cut-off developed by Hoover et al. Both frailty measurements were significantly associated with falls and overnight hospitalizations. For instance, compared with the frailty index defined non-frail participants, their pre-frail and frail counterparts had significantly increased risks for falls, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.17-2.43) and 2.87 (95% CI: 1.93-4.28), respectively. When the two frailty measurements were simultaneously included in the models, significant associations were also observed. More importantly, a sub-analysis in participants who were categorized as robust by frailty phenotype revealed that frail participants (frailty index>0.21) still had increased risks for falls (OR=2.35, 95% CI: 1.24-4.46) and overnight hospitalizations (OR=2.56, 95% CI: 1.05-6.23) compared with their non-frail counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Common characteristics and complementarity existed in the frailty index and phenotype in the elderly Chinese population. Additional consideration of the frailty index when applying frailty phenotype should be undertaken. The findings provide preliminary but crucial clues for future studies on frailty.