Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Burkina Faso: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Africa has some of the highest cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates globally. Burkina Faso launched a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme for 9-year-old girls in 2022 with support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi). An economic evaluation of HPV vaccination is required to help sustain investment and inform decisions about optimal HPV vaccine choices. METHODS: We used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for 9-year-old girls over a ten-year period (2022-2031) in Burkina Faso. The primary outcome measure was the cost (2022 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from a limited societal perspective (including all vaccine costs borne by the government and Gavi, radiation therapy costs borne by the government, and all other direct medical costs borne by patients and their families). We evaluated four vaccines (CERVARIX®, CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, GARDASIL-9®), comparing each to no vaccination (and no change in existing cervical cancer screening and treatment strategies) and to each other. We combined local estimates of HPV type distribution, healthcare costs, vaccine coverage and costs with GLOBOCAN 2020 disease burden data and clinical trial efficacy data. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses. RESULTS: HPV vaccination could prevent 37-72% of cervical cancer cases and deaths. CECOLIN® had the most favourable cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.27 times the national gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). When cross-protection was included, CECOLIN® remained the most cost-effective (cost per DALY averted < 0.20 times the national GDP per capita), but CERVARIX® provided greater health benefits (66% vs. 48% reduction in cervical cancer cases and deaths) with similar cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.28 times the national GDP per capita, with CECOLIN® as the comparator). We estimated the annual cost of the vaccination programme at US$ 2.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 19.8 million for CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, CERVARIX® and GARDASIL-9®, respectively. A single dose strategy reduced costs and improved cost-effectiveness by more than half. CONCLUSION: HPV vaccination is cost-effective in Burkina Faso from a limited societal perspective. A single dose strategy and/or alternative Gavi-supported HPV vaccines could further improve cost-effectiveness.

Pivoting injury prevention efforts during a pandemic: results of an international survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 a pandemic changed the world. Public health directives to socially distance with stay-at-home orders altered injury risk factor exposure, resulting injury patterns and conducting injury prevention (IP). The objective of this study was to determine the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on injury and IP at North American trauma centers (TC). RESULTS: Sixty-two responses were received from pediatric (44%), adult (11%), and combined (31%) TC, from 22 American states, 5 Canadian provinces and Australia. The majority (91%) of programs targeted age groups from birth to 15 years old. Nearly one-third reported IP to be less of an institutional priority with funding redistributed in 15% of centers [median (IQR) - 25% (- 43, 1)], and resultant staffing changes at 38% of centers. A decrease in IP efforts was reported at 64% of TC. Overall, the majority of respondents reviewed injury data, with the top reported increased mechanisms mainly intentional: Firearm-related (75%), assaults (72%), and abuse (71%). Leading increased unintentional injuries were injuries occurring in the home such as falls (70%), followed by ATV (62%), and cycling (57%). Sites pivoted by presenting (74%) or participating (73%) in IP education virtually, social media posts (61%) and the addition of technology (29%). Top barriers were redeployment of partners (45%) and staff (31%), as well as lack of technology (40%) in the target population. Facilitators were technology at TC (74%), support of trauma program (63%), and having IP funding maintained (55%). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly two-thirds of TC decreased IP efforts during the pandemic due to staffing and funding reductions. The leading reported increased injuries were intentional, indicating that violence prevention is needed, along with support for mental health. While TC successfully pivoted by using technology, access issues in the target population was a barrier resulting in health inequities.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in Vietnam: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New prevention strategies for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are emerging, but it is unclear if they will be cost-effective in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of two strategies to prevent RSV disease in young children in Vietnam. METHODS: We used a static cohort model with a finely disaggregated age structure (weeks of age <5 years) to calculate the RSV disease burden in Vietnam, with and without a single dose of maternal vaccine (RSVpreF, Pfizer) or of monoclonal antibody (Nirsevimab, Sanofi, Astra Zeneca). Each strategy was compared to no pharmaceutical intervention, and to each other. We assumed both strategies would be administered year round over a ten-year period. The primary outcome measure was the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, from a societal perspective. We ran probabilistic and deterministic uncertainty analyses. RESULTS: With central input assumptions for RSVpreF vaccine ($25/dose, 69 % efficacy, 6 months protection) and Nirsevimab ($25/dose, 77 % efficacy, 5 months protection), both options had similar cost-effectiveness ($3442 versus $3367 per DALY averted) when compared separately to no pharmaceutical intervention. RSVpreF vaccine had a lower net cost than Nirsevimab (net discounted cost of $213 m versus $264 m) but prevented fewer RSV deaths (24 % versus 31 %). Our results were very sensitive to assumptions about the dose price, efficacy, and duration of protection. At $5/dose and a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5 times the national GDP per capita, both prevention strategies are cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: RSVpreF vaccine and Nirsevimab may be cost-effective in Vietnam if appropriately priced.

Rotavirus vaccine product switch in Ghana: An assessment of service delivery costs, switching costs, and cost-effectiveness.

Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccine (ROTARIX 1-dose presentation) into the routine national immunization program in 2012 and switched to a different product (ROTAVAC 5-dose presentation) in 2020. ROTAVAC has a lower price per dose (US$0.85 versus US$2.15 for ROTARIX) and smaller cold chain footprint but requires more doses per regimen (three versus two). This study estimates the supply chain and service delivery costs associated with each product, the costs involved in switching products, and compares the cost-effectiveness of both products over the next ten years. We estimated the supply chain and service delivery costs associated with ROTARIX and ROTAVAC (evaluating both the 5-dose and 10-dose presentations) using primary data collected from health facilities in six of the 14 regions in the country. We estimated the costs of switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC using information collected from key informant interviews and financial records provided by the government. All costs were reported in 2020 US$. We used the UNIVAC decision-support model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness (US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from government and societal perspectives) of ROTARIX and ROTAVAC (5-dose or 10-dose presentations) compared to no vaccination, and to each other, over a ten-year period (2020 to 2029). We ran probabilistic sensitivity analyses and other threshold analyses. The supply chain and service delivery economic cost per dose was $2.40 for ROTARIX, $1.81 for ROTAVAC 5-dose, and $1.76 for ROTAVAC 10-dose. The financial and economic cost of switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC 5-dose was $453,070 and $883,626, respectively. Compared to no vaccination, the cost per DALY averted was $360 for ROTARIX, $298 for ROTAVAC 5-dose, and $273 for ROTAVAC 10-dose. ROTAVAC 10-dose was the most cost-effective option and would be cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds exceeding 0.12 times the national GDP per capita ($2,206 in the year 2020). The switch from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC 5-dose in 2020 was cost-saving. Rotavirus vaccination is highly cost-effective in Ghana. A switch from ROTAVAC 5-dose to ROTAVAC 10-dose would be cost-saving and should be considered.

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Human Papillomavirus Vaccines for Preadolescent Girls in Mozambique: A Modelling Study.

Mozambique has one of the highest rates of cervical cancer in the world. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was introduced in 2021. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of the current HPV vaccine (GARDASIL® hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) and two other vaccines (CECOLIN® and CERVARIX®) that could be used in the future. A static cohort model was used to estimate the costs and benefits of vaccinating girls in Mozambique over the period 2022-2031. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted from a government perspective. We conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Without cross-protection, all three vaccines averted approximately 54% cervical cancer cases and deaths. With cross-protection, CERVARIX averted 70% of cases and deaths. Without Gavi support, the discounted vaccine program costs ranged from 60 million to 81 million USD. Vaccine program costs were approximately 37 million USD for all vaccines with Gavi support. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN was dominant, being cost-effective with or without Gavi support. With cross-protection and Gavi support, CERVARIX was dominant and cost-saving. With cross-protection and no Gavi support, CECOLIN had the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio. Conclusions: At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at 35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, HPV vaccination is cost-effective in Mozambique. The optimal vaccine choice depends on cross-protection assumptions.

Impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications of HPV vaccination in Kenya: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of cervical cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Kenya introduced a quadrivalent HPV vaccine (GARDASIL, hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) for ten-year-old girls in late 2019 with donor support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. As Kenya may soon graduate from Gavi support, it is important to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the current HPV vaccine, and potential alternatives. METHODS: We used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the annual budget impact and lifetime cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ten-year-old girls over the period 2020-2029. We included a catch-up campaign for girls aged 11-14 years in 2020. We estimated cervical cancer cases, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs (government and societal perspective) expected to occur with and without vaccination over the lifetimes of each cohort of vaccinated girls. For each of the four products available globally (CECOLIN©, CERVARIX©, GARDASIL-4©, and GARDASIL-9 ©), we estimated the cost (2021 US$) per DALY averted compared to no vaccine and to each other. Model inputs were obtained from published sources, as well as local stakeholders. RESULTS: We estimated 320,000 cases and 225,000 deaths attributed to cervical cancer over the lifetimes of the 14 evaluated birth cohorts. HPV vaccination could reduce this burden by 42-60 %. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN had the lowest net cost and most attractive cost-effectiveness. With cross-protection, CERVARIX was the most cost-effective. Under either scenario the most cost-effective vaccine had a 100 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 100 (5 % of Kenya's national gross domestic product per capita) compared to no vaccination. Should Kenya reach its target of 90 % coverage and graduate from Gavi support, the undiscounted annual vaccine program cost could exceed US$ 10 million per year. For all three vaccines currently supported by Gavi, a single-dose strategy would be cost-saving compared to no vaccination. CONCLUSION: HPV vaccination for girls is highly cost-effective in Kenya. Compared to GARDASIL-4, alternative products could provide similar or greater health benefits at lower net costs. Substantial government funding will be required to reach and sustain coverage targets as Kenya graduates from Gavi support. A single dose strategy is likely to have similar benefits for less cost.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus disease in young children: a decision-support model for use in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory disease in young children. A number of mathematical models have been used to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSV prevention strategies, but these have not been designed for ease of use by multidisciplinary teams working in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We describe the UNIVAC decision-support model (a proportionate outcomes static cohort model) and its approach to exploring the potential cost-effectiveness of two RSV prevention strategies: a single-dose maternal vaccine and a single-dose long-lasting monoclonal antibody (mAb) for infants. We identified model input parameters for 133 LMICs using evidence from the literature and selected national datasets. We calculated the potential cost-effectiveness of each RSV prevention strategy (compared to nothing and to each other) over the lifetimes of all children born in the year 2025 and compared our results to a separate model published by PATH. We ran sensitivity and scenario analyses to identify the inputs with the largest influence on the cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: Our illustrative results assuming base case input assumptions for maternal vaccination ($3.50 per dose, 69% efficacy, 6 months protection) and infant mAb ($3.50 per dose, 77% efficacy, 5 months protection) showed that both interventions were cost-saving compared to status quo in around one-third of 133 LMICs, and had a cost per DALY averted below 0.5 times the national GDP per capita in the remaining LMICs. UNIVAC generated similar results to a separate model published by PATH. Cost-effectiveness results were most sensitive to changes in the price, efficacy and duration of protection of each strategy, and the rate (and cost) of RSV hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Forthcoming RSV interventions (maternal vaccines and infant mAbs) are worth serious consideration in LMICs, but there is a good deal of uncertainty around several influential inputs, including intervention price, efficacy, and duration of protection. The UNIVAC decision-support model provides a framework for country teams to build consensus on data inputs, explore scenarios, and strengthen the local ownership and policy-relevance of results.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Niger: a modelling study evaluating alternative rotavirus vaccines.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative rotavirus vaccines in Niger, using UNIVAC, a proportionate outcomes model. SETTING: The study leverages global, regional and local data to inform cost-effectiveness modelling. Local data were collected as part of a clinical trial taking place in the Madarounfa district, Maradi region, Niger. PARTICIPANTS: The study models impact of infants vaccination on rotavirus gastroenteritis in children under 5 years of age. INTERVENTIONS: We compared the use of ROTARIX (GlaxoSmithKline, Belgium), ROTAVAC (Bharat Biotech, India) and ROTASIIL (Serum Institute, India) to no vaccination and to each other over a 10-year period starting in 2021. RESULTS: We estimated that ROTARIX, ROTAVAC and ROTASIIL would each prevent 13 million cases and 20 000 deaths of children under 5 years over a 10-year period in Niger. Compared with no vaccination, the cost to avert a disability-adjusted life-year was US$146 with ROTARIX, US$107 with ROTASIIL and US$76 with ROTAVAC from the government perspective. ROTAVAC dominated ROTARIX and ROTASIIL (eg, provided similar or higher benefits at a lower cost) and had 90% chance to be cost-effective at a US$100 willingness-to-pay threshold. CONCLUSIONS: This study can inform decision-making around rotavirus vaccination policy in Niger, demonstrating that ROTAVAC is likely the most cost-effective option. Alternative products (ROTASIIL and ROTARIX) may also be considered by decision-makers if they are priced more competitively, or if their cold chain requirements could bring additional economic benefits.

Percutaneous Revascularization for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Whether revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) can improve event-free survival and left ventricular function in patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction, as compared with optimal medical therapy (i.e., individually adjusted pharmacologic and device therapy for heart failure) alone, is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less, extensive coronary artery disease amenable to PCI, and demonstrable myocardial viability to a strategy of either PCI plus optimal medical therapy (PCI group) or optimal medical therapy alone (optimal-medical-therapy group). The primary composite outcome was death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure. Major secondary outcomes were left ventricular ejection fraction at 6 and 12 months and quality-of-life scores. RESULTS: A total of 700 patients underwent randomization - 347 were assigned to the PCI group and 353 to the optimal-medical-therapy group. Over a median of 41 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 129 patients (37.2%) in the PCI group and in 134 patients (38.0%) in the optimal-medical-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 1.27; P = 0.96). The left ventricular ejection fraction was similar in the two groups at 6 months (mean difference, -1.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.7 to 0.5) and at 12 months (mean difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.7 to 3.4). Quality-of-life scores at 6 and 12 months appeared to favor the PCI group, but the difference had diminished at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction who received optimal medical therapy, revascularization by PCI did not result in a lower incidence of death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Program; REVIVED-BCIS2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01920048.).

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus is one of the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children, with the largest mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries. To prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis, Mozambique introduced ROTARIX® vaccine in 2015, however, its cost-effectiveness has never been established in the country. In 2018, additional vaccines became available globally. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the recently introduced ROTARIX in Mozambique and compares the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® to inform future use. METHODS: We used a decision-support model to calculate the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with ROTARIX compared to no vaccination over a five-year period (2016-2020) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL to no vaccination and to each other over a ten-year period (2021-2030). The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective. We assessed uncertainty through sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2020, we estimate the vaccine program with ROTARIX cost US$12.3 million, prevented 4,628 deaths, and averted US$3.1 million in healthcare costs. The cost per DALY averted was US$70. From 2021 to 2030, we estimate all three vaccines could prevent 9,000 deaths and avert US$7.8 million in healthcare costs. With Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) support, ROTARIX would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$31 million) and 98 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x GDP per capita. Without Gavi support, ROTASIIL would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$75.8 million) and 30 % probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold. CONCLUSION: ROTARIX vaccination had a substantial public health impact in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020. ROTARIX is currently estimated to be the most cost-effective product, but the choice of vaccine should be re-evaluated as more evidence emerges on the price, incremental delivery cost, wastage, and impact associated with each of the different rotavirus vaccines.

Dynamic risk stratification using Markov chain modelling in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. CONCLUSIONS: A model derived from the first 8 months of follow-up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccines in 137 LMICs: a modelling study.

While current live, oral rotavirus vaccines (LORVs) are reducing severe diarrhea everywhere, their effectiveness is lower in high burden settings. Alternative approaches are in advanced stages of clinical development, including injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccine (iNGRV) candidates, which have the potential to better protect children, be combined with existing routine immunizations and be more affordable than current LORVs. In an effort to better understand the real public health value of iNGRVs and to help inform decisions by international agencies, funders, and vaccine manufacturers, we conducted an impact and cost-effectiveness analysis examining 20 rotavirus vaccine use cases. We evaluated several currently licensed LORVs, one neonatal oral NGRV (oNGRV), one iNGRV, and one iNGRV-DTP (iNGRV comprising part of a DTP-containing combination) over a ten-year timeframe in 137 low- and middle-income countries. The most promising use case identified was a high efficacy iNGRV-DTP, predicted to have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$1.4 billion), the highest vaccine benefit (750,000 rotavirus deaths averted, 13 million rotavirus hospital admissions averted, US$ 2.7 billion health-care cost averted), and most favorable cost-effectiveness (cost-saving). iNGRV-DTP vaccine remained the most affordable, safe, and cost-effective option even when it was assumed to have equivalent efficacy to the current LORVs. This study shows that while the development of iNGRVs with superior efficacy to currently licensed LORVs would be ideal, iNGRVs with similar efficacy to LORVs would offer substantial public health value. It also highlights the economic value of accelerating the development of DTP-based combination vaccines that include iNGRV to provide rotavirus protection.

Correction to: the Fall in Income Inequality during COVID-19 in Four European Countries.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s10888-021-09499-2.].

Direct and indirect costs of acute diarrhea in children under five years of age in Indonesia: Health facilities and community survey.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea remains a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Reliable data on the economic burden of diarrhea is required to support the selection of appropriate health intervention programs. This study aimed to estimate the costs of acute diarrhea in children under five years of age in Indonesia, a large middle-income country with a substantial diarrheal burden. METHODS: Direct medical cost data were extracted retrospectively for 1050 children under five years of age with acute diarrhea receiving inpatient care across 45 health facilities in seven Indonesian provinces during 2017-2020. Direct medical costs for children treated in outpatient settings were estimated by collecting unit costs associated with standard diarrhea case management in children. A structured interview of 240 caregivers of inpatients was also conducted retrospectively to estimate direct non-medical costs as well as indirect costs from caregiver income loss. RESULTS: The weighted average direct medical cost for treatment of acute diarrhea as an inpatient and outpatient across health facility types was US$99.8 (SD±$56.8)(35% room costs, 29% professional fees, 26% medication costs, 10% diagnostic costs) and US$7.6 (SD±$4.3) (34% diagnostic costs, 28% medication costs, 27% professional fees, 10% registration fees), respectively. The average direct non-medical household cost for an acute diarrheal admission was US$4.90 and the indirect cost was US$9.90. CONCLUSION: There is a significant economic burden associated with acute diarrhea in children in Indonesia. This study, based on a wide variety of health care settings and geographical regions, provides data to inform the economic evaluation of rotavirus vaccines and other diarrheal prevention programs. FUNDING: This work was supported by a research grant from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI) and PATH; and the Indonesian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (ITAGI).

Income-related health inequality in urban China (1991-2015): The role of homeownership and housing conditions.

Unprecedented economic growth has been experienced over the several decades worldwide, but such rapid economic growth wasn't accompanied by equally-substantial improvement in health, especially health inequalities between the rich and poor. This study examines the role of housing in income-related health inequalities (income-health gradient) in urban China. We here analyze 1991-2015 China Health and Nutrition Survey data to ask how housing affects income-related health inequalities in urban China. We find pro-poor inequalities in self-reported bad health but pro-rich inequalities in objective bad health (general overweight/obesity, central obesity and high blood pressure). Housing conditions serve to reduce the health gradient, especially for objective health. On the contrary, homeownership exacerbates the health gradient. Improving housing conditions thus appears to be an effective way of reducing the income-health gradient in urban China.

Biomarker-based assessment of collagen cross-linking identifies patients at risk of heart failure more likely to benefit from spironolactone effects on left atrial remodelling. Insights from the HOMAGE clinical trial.

AIMS: The HOMAGE randomized trial found that spironolactone reduced left atrial volume index (LAVI), E:A ratio, and a marker of collagen type I synthesis (procollagen type I C-terminal propeptide) in patients at risk of heart failure (HF). Previous trials showed that patients with HF, preserved ejection fraction and low serum collagen type I C-terminal telopeptide to matrix metalloproteinase-1 ratio (CITP:MMP-1), associated with high collagen cross-linking, had less improvement in diastolic function with spironolactone. We evaluated the interaction between serum CITP:MMP-1 and spironolactone on cardiac function in the HOMAGE trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients at risk of HF were randomized to spironolactone (n = 260) or not (n = 255). Blood sampling and echocardiography were done at baseline, one and nine months. CITP:MMP-1 was used as an indirect measure of collagen cross-linking. Higher baseline CITP:MMP-1 (i.e. lower collagen cross-linking) was associated with greater reductions in LAVI with spironolactone at both one (p = 0.003) and nine (p = 0.01) months, but no interaction was observed for E:A ratio. Spironolactone reduced LAVI after one and nine months only for those patients in the third tertile of CITP:MMP-1 (estimated lowest collagen cross-linking) [mean differencesspiro/control : -1.77 (95% confidence interval, CI -2.94 to -0.59) and -2.52 (95% CI -4.46 to -0.58) mL/m2 ; interaction pacross-tertiles  = 0.005; interaction pthird tertile  = 0.008] with a similar trend for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide which was consistently reduced by spironolactone only in the lowest collagen cross-linking tertile [mean differencesspiro/control : -0.47 (95% CI -0.66 to -0.28) and -0.31 (95% CI -0.59 to -0.04) ng/L; interaction pacross-tertiles  = 0.09; interaction pthird tertile < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that, for patients at risk of HF, the effects of spironolactone on left atrial remodelling may be more prominent in patients with less collagen cross-linking (indirectly assessed by serum CITP:MMP-1).

The projected cost-effectiveness and budget impact of HPV vaccine introduction in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is responsible for around one-quarter of all cancer deaths among Ghanaian women. Between 2013 and 2015, Ghana conducted a pilot of HPV vaccination among 10-14-year-old girls in four regions; however, the country has yet to introduce the vaccine nationally. This study projected the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of adding HPV vaccination into Ghana's national immunization program. METHODS: We used a proportional outcomes model (UNIVAC, version 1.4) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introduction with bivalent (Cervarix™) and quadrivalent (Gardasil®) vaccines from government and societal perspectives. Vaccine introduction was modeled to start in 2022 and continue over ten birth cohorts using a combined delivery strategy of school (80%) and community outreach (20%). We modeled vaccination in a single age cohort of 9-year-old girls vs. a multi-age cohort of 9-year-old girls (routine) and 10-14-year-old girls (one-time campaign) compared to no vaccination. Health outcomes included cervical cancer cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We applied a discount rate of 3% to costs and outcomes. All monetary units are reported in USD 2018. RESULTS: National HPV vaccination in Ghana was projected to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination in all scenarios evaluated. The most cost-effective and dominant strategy was vaccination among 9-year-old girls, plus a one-time campaign among 10-14-year-old with the bivalent vaccine ($158/DALY averted from the government perspective; 95% credible range: $19-$280/DALY averted). Projected average annual costs of the vaccine program ranged from $11.2 to $15.4 M, depending on strategy. This represents 11-15% of the estimated total immunization costs for 2022 ($100,857,875 based on Ghana's comprehensive Multi-Year Plan for Immunization, 2020-2024). DISCUSSION: Our model suggests that introducing HPV vaccination would be cost-effective in Ghana under any strategy when willingness-to-pay is at least 40% GDP per capita ($881). Inclusion of a one-time catch-up campaign is shown to create greater value for money than routine immunization alone but would incur greater program costs.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Philippines: A modeling study.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities. METHODS: We calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021-2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Introducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021-2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830-$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233-1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita. CONCLUSION: Both Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.

The fall in income inequality during COVID-19 in four European countries.

We here use panel data from the COME-HERE survey to track income inequality during COVID-19 in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Relative inequality in equivalent household disposable income among individuals changed in a hump-shaped way between January 2020 and January 2021, with an initial rise from January to May 2020 being more than reversed by September 2020. Absolute inequality also fell over this period. Due to the pandemic some households lost more than others, and government compensation schemes were targeted towards the poorest, implying that on average income differences decreased. Generalized Lorenz domination reveals that these distributive changes reduced welfare in Italy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09499-2.

Expanding COVID-19 Vaccine Availability: Role for Combined Orthogonal Serology Testing (COST).

BACKGROUND: The persisting Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and limited vaccine supply has led to a shift in global health priorities to expand vaccine coverage. Relying on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) molecular testing alone cannot reveal the infection proportion, which could play a critical role in vaccination prioritization. We evaluated the utility of a combination orthogonal serological testing (COST) algorithm alongside RT-PCR to quantify prevalence with the aim of identifying candidate patient clusters to receive single and/or delayed vaccination. METHODS: We utilized 108,505 patients with suspected COVID-19 in a retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR vs. IgG-nucleocapsid (IgGNC) antibody testing coverage in routine practice for the estimation of prevalence. Prospectively, an independent cohort of 21,388 subjects was simultaneously tested by SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and IgGNC to determine the prevalence. We used 614 prospective study subjects to assess the utility of COST (IgGNC, IgM-spike (IgMSP), and IgG-spike (IgGSP)) in establishing the infection proportion to identify a single-dose vaccination cohort. RESULTS: Retrospectively, we observed a 6.3% (6871/108,505) positivity for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, and only 2.3% (2533/108,505) of cases had paired IgGNC serology performed. Prospectively, IgGNC serology identified twice the number of COVID-positive cases in relation to RT-PCR alone. COST further increased the number of detected positive cases: IgGNC+ or IgMSP+ (18.0%); IgGNC+ or IgGSP+ (23.5%); IgMSP+ or IgGSP+ (23.8%); and IgGNC+ or IgMSP+ or IgGSP+ (141/584 = 24.1%). CONCLUSION: COST may be an effective tool for the evaluation of infection proportion and thus could define a cohort for a single dose and/or delayed vaccination.