Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data.

AIM: We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings. RESULTS: Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Maori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

The neglected potential of red and processed meat replacement with alternative protein sources: Simulation modelling and systematic review.

Background: What we eat is fundamental to human and planetary health, with the current global dietary transition towards increased red meat intakes and ultra-processed foods likely detrimental. Methods: We modelled five red and processed meat replacement scenarios to consider health, equity, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe), and cost outcomes using an established multistate life table model using data from New Zealand as a case study of a developed, westernised country. Current red and processed meat intakes were replaced with: minimally or ultra-processed plant based meat alternatives, cellular meat, or diets in line with EAT-Lancet or Heart Foundation recommendations on red meat intake. We then conducted a systematic review of literature from database inception to 14 November 2022 to identify implemented population-level meat replacement strategies which could inform evidence-based recommendations to achieve any benefits observed in modelling. PROSPERO CRD42020200023. Findings: When compared with current red and processed meat intakes, all red and processed meat replacement scenarios were nutritionally adequate and improved overall Quality Adjusted Life Years (159-297 per 1000 people over life course for the five scenarios modelled). Age standardised per capita health gain for Maori was 1.6-2.3 times that of non-Maori. Health system cost savings were $2530-$5096 per adult, and GHGe reduced 19-35%. Finally, grocery cost varied (↓7%-↑2%) per modelled scenario when compared with baseline costs. The greatest benefits for all outcomes were achieved by meat replacement with minimally-processed plant-based foods, such as legumes. The systematic review identified only two implemented population-level strategies to reduce meat intakes within the academic literature. Interpretation: All meat replacement scenarios considered indicated appreciable health gains and GHGe reductions. Replacement with minimally-processed plant-based foods appeared consistently superior than other scenarios. Evidence of real-world population strategies to achieve these benefits however is currently lacking. Funding: Healthier Lives National Science Challenge (Grant UOOX1902).

Using household economic survey data to assess food expenditure patterns and trends in a high-income country with notable health inequities.

This study aimed to identify dietary trends in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) and whether inequities in dietary patterns are changing. We extracted data from the Household Economic Survey (HES), which was designed to provide information on impacts of policy-making in NZ, and performed descriptive analyses on food expenditures. Overall, total household food expenditure per capita increased by 0.38% annually over this period. Low-income households spent around three quarters of what high-income households spent on food per capita. High-income households experienced a greater increase in expenditure on nuts and seeds and a greater reduction in expenditure on processed meat. There was increased expenditure over time on fruit and vegetables nuts and seeds, and healthy foods in Maori (Indigenous) households with little variations in non-Maori households. But there was little change in processed meat expenditure for Maori households and expenditure on less healthy foods also increased over time. Routinely collected HES data were useful and cost-effective for understanding trends in food expenditure patterns to inform public health interventions, in the absence of nutrition survey data. Potentially positive expenditure trends for Maori were identified, however, food expenditure inequities in processed meat and less healthy foods by ethnicity and income continue to be substantial.

Potential effect of real-world junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on population health, health system costs and greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand: a modelling study.

Poor diet is a major risk factor for excess weight gain and obesity-related diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis and several cancers. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of real-world food and beverage taxes on change in dietary risk factors, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), health system costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as if they had all been implemented in New Zealand (NZ). Ten taxes or tax packages were modelled. A proportional multistate life table model was used to predict resultant QALYs and costs over the remaining lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011, as well as GHG emissions. QALYs ranged from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 10.2 to 15.0; 3% discount rate) per 1000 population for the import tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in Palau to 143 (95% UI 118 to 171) per 1000 population for the excise duties on saturated fat, chocolate and sweets in Denmark, while health expenditure savings ranged from 2011 NZ$245 (95% UI 188 to 310; 2020 US$185) per capita to NZ$2770 (95% UI 2140 to 3480; US$2100) per capita, respectively. The modelled taxes resulted in decreases in GHG emissions from baseline diets, ranging from -0.2% for the tax on SSB in Barbados to -2.8% for Denmark's tax package. There is strong evidence for the implementation of food and beverage tax packages in NZ or similar high-income settings.

Can a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax on Food also Be Healthy and Equitable? A Systemised Review and Modelling Study from Aotearoa New Zealand.

Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The "GHG weighted tax on all foods" scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax-fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Maori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.

The Cost-effectiveness of a Mass Media Campaign to Promote Smartphone Apps for Weight Loss: Updated Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that smartphone apps can be effective in the self-management of weight. Given the low cost, broad reach, and apparent effectiveness of weight loss apps, governments may seek to encourage their uptake as a tool to reduce excess weight in the population. Mass media campaigns are 1 mechanism for promoting app use. However, the cost and potential cost-effectiveness are important considerations. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to use modeling to assess the health impacts, health system costs, cost-effectiveness, and health equity of a mass media campaign to promote high-quality smartphone apps for weight loss in New Zealand. METHODS: We used an established proportional multistate life table model that simulates the 2011 New Zealand adult population over the lifetime, subgrouped by age, sex, and ethnicity (Maori [Indigenous] or non-Maori). The risk factor was BMI. The model compared business as usual to a one-off mass media campaign intervention, which included the pooled effect size from a recent meta-analysis of smartphone weight loss apps. The resulting impact on BMI and BMI-related diseases was captured through changes in health gain (quality-adjusted life years) and in health system costs. The difference in total health system costs was the net sum of intervention costs and downstream cost offsets because of altered disease rates. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to health gains and health system costs. Multiple scenarios and sensitivity analyses were conducted, including an equity adjustment. RESULTS: Across the remaining lifetime of the modeled 2011 New Zealand population, the mass media campaign to promote weight loss app use had an estimated overall health gain of 181 (95% uncertainty interval 113-270) quality-adjusted life years and health care costs of -NZ $606,000 (-US $408,000; 95% uncertainty interval -NZ $2,540,000 [-US $1,709,000] to NZ $907,000 [US $610,000]). The mean health care costs were negative, representing overall savings to the health system. Across the outcomes examined in this study, the modeled mass media campaign to promote weight loss apps among the general population would be expected to provide higher per capita health gain for Maori and hence reduce health inequities arising from high BMI, assuming that the intervention would be as effective for Maori as it is for non-Maori. CONCLUSIONS: A modeled mass media campaign to encourage the adoption of smartphone apps to promote weight loss among the New Zealand adult population is expected to yield an overall gain in health and to be cost-saving to the health system. Although other interventions in the nutrition and physical activity space are even more beneficial to health and produce larger cost savings (eg, fiscal policies and food reformulation), governments may choose to include strategies to promote health app use as complementary measures.

Prescribing Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity Promotion in Primary Care: Modeling Study of Health Gain and Cost Savings.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate physical activity is a substantial cause of health loss worldwide, and this loss is attributable to diseases such as coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and certain forms of cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the potential impact of the prescription of smartphone apps in primary care settings on physical activity levels, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and health system costs in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate the change in physical activity levels and predict the resultant health gains in QALYs and health system costs over the remaining life span of the NZ population alive in 2011 at a 3% discount rate. RESULTS: The modeled intervention resulted in an estimated 430 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval 320-550), with net cost savings of 2011 NZ $2.2 million (2011 US $1.5 million) over the remaining life span of the 2011 NZ population. On a per capita basis, QALY gains were generally larger in women than in men and larger in Maori than in non-Maori. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were highly sensitive to assumptions on intervention uptake and decay. For example, the scenario analysis with the largest benefits, which assumed a 5-year maintenance of additional physical activity levels, delivered 1750 QALYs and 2011 NZ $22.5 million (2011 US $15.1 million) in cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: The prescription of smartphone apps for promoting physical activity in primary care settings is likely to generate modest health gains and cost savings at the population level in this high-income country. Such gains may increase with ongoing improvements in app design and increased health worker promotion of the apps to patients.

Hitting the Target but Missing the Point? Modelling Health and Economic Impacts of Different Approaches to Meeting the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity Target.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization launched the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity (GAPPA) in 2018, which set a global target of a 15% relative reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity by 2030. This target, however, could be acheived in various ways. METHODS: We use an established multi-state life table model to estimate the health and economic gains that would accrue over the lifetime of the 2011 New Zealand population if the GAPPA target was met under two different approaches: (1) an equal shift approach where physical activity increases by the same absolute amount for everyone; (2) a proportional shift approach where physical activity increases proportionally to current activity levels. FINDINGS: An equal shift approach to meeting the GAPPA target would result in 197,000 health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) gained (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 152,000-246,000) and healthcare system cost savings of US$1.57b (95%UI $1.16b-$2.03b; 0% discount rate). A proportional shift to the GAPPA target would result in 158,000 HALYs (95%UI 127,000-194,000) and US$1.29billion (95%UI $0.99b-$1.64b) savings to the healthcare system. INTERPRETATION: Achieving the GAPPA target would result in large health gains and savings to the healthcare system. However, not all population approaches to increasing physical activity are equal-some population shifts bring greater health benefits. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the entire population physical activity distribution in addition to evaluating progress towards a target.

The World Health Organization launched the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity in 2018, which set a global target to reduce physical inactivity. We explored different ways in which this target could be met and found that some approaches to meeting the target would bring larger health gains and savings to the healthcare system than others.

The effect of food taxes and subsidies on population health and health costs: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: One possible policy response to the burden of diet-related disease is food taxes and subsidies, but the net health gains of these approaches are uncertain because of substitution effects between foods. We estimated the health and cost impacts of various food taxes and subsidies in one high-income country, New Zealand. METHODS: In this modelling study, we compared the effects in New Zealand of a 20% fruit and vegetable subsidy, of saturated fat, sugar and salt taxes (each set at a level that increased the total food price by the same magnitude of decrease from the fruit and vegetable subsidy), and of an 8% so-called junk food tax (on non-essential, energy-dense food). We modelled the effect of price changes on food purchases, the consequent changes in fruit and vegetable and sugar-sweetened beverage purchasing, nutrient risk factors, and body-mass index, and how these changes affect health status and health expenditure. The pre-intervention intake for 340 food groups was taken from the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey and the post-intervention intake was estimated using price and expenditure elasticities. The resultant changes in dietary risk factors were then propagated through a proportional multistate lifetable (with 17 diet-related diseases) to estimate the changes in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and health system expenditure over the 2011 New Zealand population's remaining lifespan. FINDINGS: Health gains (expressed in HALYs per 1000 people) ranged from 127 (95% uncertainty interval 96-167; undiscounted) for the 8% junk food tax and 212 (102-297) for the fruit and vegetable subsidy, up to 361 (275-474) for the saturated fat tax, 375 (272-508) for the salt tax, and 581 (429-792) for the sugar tax. Health expenditure savings across the remaining lifespan per capita (at a 3% discount rate) ranged from US$492 (334-694) for the junk food tax to $2164 (1472-3122) for the sugar tax. INTERPRETATION: The large magnitude of the health gains and cost savings of these modelled taxes and subsidies suggests that their use warrants serious policy consideration. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Fuelling walking and cycling: human powered locomotion is associated with non-negligible greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing motorized transport and increasing active transport (i.e. transport by walking, cycling and other active modes) may reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve health. But, active modes of transport are not zero emitters. We aimed to quantify GHG emissions from food production required to fuel extra physical activity for walking and cycling. We estimate the emissions (in kgCO2e) per kilometre travelled for walking and cycling from energy intake required to compensate for increased energy expenditure, and data on food-related GHG emissions. We assume that persons who shift from passive modes of transport (e.g. driving) have increased energy expenditure that may be compensated with increased food consumption. The GHG emissions associated with food intake required to fuel a kilometre of walking range between 0.05 kgCO2e/km in the least economically developed countries to 0.26 kgCO2e/km in the most economically developed countries. Emissions for cycling are approximately half those of walking. Emissions from food required for walking and cycling are not negligible in economically developed countries which have high dietary-related emissions. There is high uncertainty about the actual emissions associated with walking and cycling, and high variability based on country economic development. Our study highlights the need to consider emissions from other sectors when estimating net-emissions impacts from transport interventions.

Health Gain, Cost Impacts, and Cost-Effectiveness of a Mass Media Campaign to Promote Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity: Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity smartphone apps are a promising strategy to increase population physical activity, but it is unclear whether government mass media campaigns to promote these apps would be a cost-effective use of public funds. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the health impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a one-off national mass media campaign to promote the use of physical activity apps. METHODS: We used an established multistate life table model to estimate the lifetime health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) that would accrue if New Zealand adults were exposed to a one-off national mass media campaign to promote physical activity app use, with a 1-year impact on physical activity, compared to business-as-usual. A health-system perspective was used to assess cost-effectiveness. and a 3% discount rate was applied to future health gains and health system costs. RESULTS: The modeled intervention resulted in 28 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8-72) gained at a cost of NZ $81,000/QALY (2018 US $59,500; 95% UI 17,000-345,000), over the remaining life course of the 2011 New Zealand population. The intervention had a low probability (20%) of being cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of NZ $45,000 (US $32,900) per QALY. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were highly sensitive to assumptions around the maintenance of physical activity behaviors beyond the duration of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: A mass media campaign to promote smartphone apps for physical activity is unlikely to generate much health gain or be cost-effective at the population level. Other investments to promote physical activity, particularly those that result in sustained behavior change, are likely to have greater health impacts.

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity.

BACKGROUND: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. METHODS: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. RESULTS: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.

Food taxes and subsidies to protect health: relevance to Aotearoa New Zealand.

The hazardous and obesogenic food environment are major contributors to health loss in Aotearoa New Zealand. Here we consider the potential use of food taxes and subsidies to protect health in this country. We find that each one of the 14 recent systematic reviews on the tax and/or subsidy topic since 2015 in the scientific literature report that such interventions have favourable impacts from a health perspective. The New Zealand evidence we considered (n=12 studies since January 2010) is less definitive, but the pattern of results is consistent with the international evidence. Given this overall picture, the New Zealand Government should seriously consider such tax/subsidy interventions, potentially starting with a UK-style sugary drinks industry levy.

Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of brief weight-loss counselling by dietitian-trained practice nurses, in a high-income-country case study. DESIGN: A literature search of the impact of dietary counselling on BMI was performed to source the 'best' effect size for use in modelling. This was combined with multiple other input parameters (e.g. epidemiological and cost parameters for obesity-related diseases, likely uptake of counselling) in an established multistate life-table model with fourteen parallel BMI-related disease life tables using a 3 % discount rate. SETTING: New Zealand (NZ). PARTICIPANTS: We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained and health-system costs over the remainder of the lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n 4·4 million). RESULTS: Counselling was estimated to result in an increase of 250 QALY (95 % uncertainty interval -70, 560 QALY) over the population's lifetime. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 2011 $NZ 138 200 per QALY gained (2018 $US 102 700). Per capita QALY gains were higher for Maori (Indigenous population) than for non-Maori, but were still not cost-effective. If willingness-to-pay was set to the level of gross domestic product per capita per QALY gained (i.e. 2011 $NZ 45 000 or 2018 $US 33 400), the probability that the intervention would be cost-effective was 2 %. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides modelling-level evidence that brief dietary counselling for weight loss in primary care generates relatively small health gains at the population level and is unlikely to be cost-effective.

The effect of food price changes on consumer purchases: a randomised experiment.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence on health-related food taxes and subsidies relies on observational data and effects on single nutrients or foods instead of total diet. The aim of this study was to measure the effect of randomly assigned food price variations on consumer purchasing, where sets of prices emulated commonly discussed food tax and subsidy policies, including a subsidy on fruit and vegetables, a sweetened beverage tax, and taxes on foods according to sugar, sodium, and saturated fat content. METHODS: In this study, adult participants (≥18 years) in New Zealand completed up to five weekly shops in a virtual supermarket. Each shopping occasion was randomly allocated to control (no change in prices) or one or more pricing options simulating the following: a fruit and vegetable subsidy (20%), a sweetened beverage tax (20% or 40%), a saturated fat tax (NZ$2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g saturated fat), a salt tax ($0·02 per 100 mg or $0·04 per 100 mg sodium), or sugar tax ($0·40 per 100 g or $0·80 per 100 g sugar). The primary outcome was the healthiness of the total shopping basket for each weekly shop (% of total unit food items defined as healthy). Low and high price change options were combined in analyses (eg, results for a saturated fat tax are an average of $2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g). FINDINGS: Between Feb 1, and Dec 1, 2016, we randomly assigned 1132 shoppers, of whom 1038 (91·7%) completed at least one shop and 743 (71·6%) completed all five shops. Overall, data from 4258 shops were included in the analysis, including 645 control shops, 2545 shops where one policy was activated, and 1068 shops with two (or more) policies activated. In the control condition, 67·90% (SD 13·01) of food purchases were classified as healthy. Three of the five policies increased this proportion by a small, but significant amount (saturated fat tax mean absolute difference 1·77%, 95% CI 1·03 to 2·52, p<0·0001; sugar tax 1·09%, 0·26 to 1·91, p=0·0099; and salt tax 1·31%, 0·50 to 2·13, p=0·0016). The sweetened beverage tax and fruit and vegetable subsidy resulted in non-significant increases of 0·18% (95% CI -0·49 to 0·85, p=0·60) and 0·41% (-0·26 to 1·07, p=0·23), respectively. Both the saturated fat tax and salt tax resulted in the following important substitution effects: an increase in fruit and vegetable purchases as a percentage by weight of all food purchases (saturated fat tax 4·0%, 0·9 to 7·1; salt tax 4·3%, 0·9 to 7·7); but also an increase in sugar as a percentage of total energy (saturated fat tax 5·0%, 2·1 to 7·9; salt tax 3·2%, 0·0 to 6·5). Interaction terms for combined policies were mostly non-significant, consistent with additive effects of policy combinations. INTERPRETATION: Price changes representing saturated fat, sugar, and salt taxes increased total healthy food purchases. As we observed important substitution effects, a combination of different tax and subsidy policies might be the most effective way to improve diets and decrease diet-related chronic diseases. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity contributes substantively to disease burden, especially in highly car dependent countries such as New Zealand (NZ). We aimed to quantify the future health gain, health-sector cost-savings, and change in greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by switching short vehicle trips to walking and cycling in New Zealand. METHODS: We used unit-level survey data to estimate changes in physical activity, distance travelled by mode, and air pollution for: (a) switching car trips under 1km to walking and (b) switching car trips under 5km to a mix of walking and cycling. We modelled uptake levels of 25%, 50%, and 100%, and assumed changes in transport behaviour were permanent. We then used multi-state life table modelling to quantify health impacts as quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and changes in health system costs over the rest of the life course of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n = 4.4 million), with 3% discounting. FINDINGS: The modelled scenarios resulted in health gains between 1.61 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.35 to 1.89) and 25.43 (UI 20.20 to 30.58) QALYs/1000 people, with total QALYs up to 112,020 (UI 88,969 to 134,725) over the remaining lifespan. Healthcare cost savings ranged between NZ$127million (UI $101m to 157m) and NZ$2.1billion (UI $1.6b to 2.6b). Greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 194kgCO2e/year, though changes in emissions were not significant under the walking scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial health gains and healthcare cost savings could be achieved by switching short car trips to walking and cycling. Implementing infrastructural improvements and interventions to encourage walking and cycling is likely to be a cost-effective way to improve population health, and may also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Food 4 Health - He Oranga Kai: Assessing the efficacy, acceptability and economic implications of Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001 and ß-glucan to improve glycated haemoglobin, metabolic health, and general well-being in adults with pre-diabetes: study protocol for a 2 × 2 factorial design, parallel group, placebo-controlled randomized controlled trial, with embedded qualitative study and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The rates of pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus are increasing worldwide, producing significant burdens for individuals, families, and healthcare systems. In New Zealand, type 2 diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes disproportionally affect Maori, Pacific, and South Asian peoples. This research evaluates the efficacy, acceptability, and economic impact of a probiotic capsule and a prebiotic cereal intervention in adults with pre-diabetes on metabolic and mental health and well-being outcomes. METHODS: Eligible adults (n = 152) aged 18-80 years with pre-diabetes (glycated haemoglobin 41-49 mmol/mol) will be enrolled in a 2 × 2 factorial design, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial. Computer-generated block randomization will be performed independently. Interventions are capsulated Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001 (6 × 109 colony-forming units/day) (A) and cereal containing 4 g ß-glucan (B), placebo capsules (O1), and calorie-matched control cereal (O2). Eligible participants will receive 6 months intervention in the following groups: AB, AO1, BO2, and O1O2. The primary outcome is glycated haemoglobin after 6 months. Follow-up at 9 months will assess the durability of response. Secondary outcomes are glycated haemoglobin after 3 and 9 months, fasting glucose, insulin resistance, blood pressure, body weight, body mass index, and blood lipid levels. General well-being and quality of life will be measured by the Short-Form Health Survey 36 and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale 21 at 6 and 9 months. Outcome assessors will be blind to capsule allocation. An accompanying qualitative study will include 24 face-to-face semistructured interviews with an ethnically balanced sample from the ß-glucan arms at 2 months, participant focus groups at 6 months, and three health professional focus groups. These will explore how interventions are adopted, their acceptability, and elicit factors that may support the uptake of interventions. A simulation model of the pre-diabetic New Zealand population will be used to estimate the likely impact in quality-adjusted life years and health system costs of the interventions if rolled out in New Zealand. DISCUSSION: This study will examine the efficacy of interventions in a population with pre-diabetes. Qualitative components provide rich description of views on the interventions. When combined with the economic analysis, the study will provide insights into how to translate the interventions into practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12617000990325. Prospectively registered on 10 July 2017.

Mass media promotion of a smartphone smoking cessation app: modelled health and cost-saving impacts.

BACKGROUND: Smartphones are increasingly available and some high quality apps are available for smoking cessation. However, the cost-effectiveness of promoting such apps has never been studied. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, inequality impacts and cost-utility from a five-year promotion campaign of a smoking cessation smartphone app compared to business-as-usual (no app use for quitting). METHODS: A well-established Markov macro-simulation model utilising a multi-state life-table was adapted to the intervention (lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate). The setting was the New Zealand (NZ) population (N = 4.4 million). The intervention effect size was from a multi-country randomised trial: relative risk for quitting at 6 months = 2.23 (95%CI: 1.08 to 4.77), albeit subsequently adjusted to consider long-term relapse. Intervention costs were based on NZ mass media promotion data and the NZ cost of attracting a smoker to smoking cessation services (NZ$64 per person). RESULTS: The five-year intervention was estimated to generate 6760 QALYs (95%UI: 5420 to 8420) over the remaining lifetime of the population. For Maori (Indigenous population) there was 2.8 times the per capita age-standardised QALY gain relative to non-Maori. The intervention was also estimated to be cost-saving to the health system (saving NZ$115 million [m], 95%UI: 72.5m to 171m; US$81.8m). The cost-saving aspect of the intervention was maintained in scenario and sensitivity analyses where the discount rate was doubled to 6%, the effect size halved, and the intervention run for just 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides modelling-level evidence that mass-media promotion of a smartphone app for smoking cessation could generate health gain, reduce ethnic inequalities in health and save health system costs. Nevertheless, there are other tobacco control measures which generate considerably larger health gains and cost-savings such as raising tobacco taxes.

Potential Country-level Health and Cost Impacts of Legalizing Domestic Sale of Vaporized Nicotine Products.

BACKGROUND: The net impact on population health and health system costs of vaporized nicotine products is uncertain. We modeled, with uncertainty, the health and cost impacts of liberalizing the vaporized nicotine market for a high-income country, New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used a multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases to simulate lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs at a 0% discount rate. We incorporated transitions from never, former, and current smoker states to, and from, regularly using vaporized nicotine and literature estimates for relative risk of disease incidence for vaping compared with smoking. RESULTS: Compared with continuation of baseline trends in smoking uptake and cessation rates and negligible vaporized nicotine use, we projected liberalizing the market for these products to gain 236,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 27,000 to 457,000) and save NZ$3.4 billion (2011 NZ$) (95% UI = NZ$370 million to NZ$7.1 billion) or US$2.5 billion (2017 NZ$). However, estimates of net health gains for 0- to 14-year olds and 65+ year olds had 95% UIs including the null. Uncertainty around QALYs gained was mainly driven by uncertainty around the impact of vaporized nicotine products on population-wide cessation rates and the relative health risk of vaping compared with smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling suggested that a fairly permissive regulatory environment around vaporized nicotine products achieves net health gain and cost savings, albeit with wide uncertainty. Our results suggest that optimal strategies will also be influenced by targeted smoking cessation advice, regulations around chemical constituents of these products, and marketing and age limits to prevent youth uptake of vaping.

Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake is associated with tooth decay, obesity and diabetes. We aimed to model the health and cost impact of reducing the serving size of all single serve SSB to a maximum of 250 ml in New Zealand. A 250 ml serving size cap was modeled for all instances of single serves (<600 ml) of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks, fruit drinks, carbonated energy drinks, and sports drinks in the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey intake data (2008/09). A multi-state life-table model used the change in energy intake and therefore BMI to predict the resulting health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs over the remaining life course of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 (N = 4.4 million, 3% discounting). The 'base case' model (no compensation for reduced energy intake) resulted in an average reduction in SSB and energy intake of 23 ml and 44 kJ (11 kcal) per day or 0.22 kg of weight modeled over two years. The total health gain and cost-savings were 82,100 QALYs (95% UI: 65100 to 101,000) and NZ$1.65 billion [b] (95% UI: 1.19 b to 2.24 b, (US$1.10 b)) over the lifespan of the cohort. QALY gains increased to 116,000 when the SSB definition was widened to include fruit juices and sweetened milks. A cap on single serve SSB could be an effective part of a suite of obesity prevention and sugar reduction interventions in high income countries.