Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence-assisted Pathology for Prostate Cancer Diagnosis in Sweden: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Image-based artificial intelligence (AI) methods have shown high accuracy in prostate cancer (PCa) detection. Their impact on patient outcomes and cost effectiveness in comparison to human pathologists remains unknown. Our aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted pathology for PCa diagnosis in Sweden. METHODS: We modeled quadrennial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for men between the ages of 50 and 74 yr over a lifetime horizon using a health care perspective. Men with PSA ≥3 ng/ml were referred for standard biopsy (SBx), for which cores were either examined via AI followed by a pathologist for AI-labeled positive cores, or a pathologist alone. The AI performance characteristics were estimated using an internal STHLM3 validation data set. Outcome measures included the number of tests, PCa incidence and mortality, overdiagnosis, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the potential reduction in pathologist-evaluated biopsy cores if AI were used. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: In comparison to a pathologist alone, the AI-assisted workflow increased the number of PSA tests, SBx procedures, and PCa deaths by ≤0.03%, and slightly reduced PCa incidence and overdiagnosis. AI would reduce the proportion of biopsy cores evaluated by a pathologist by 80%. At a cost of €10 per case, the AI-assisted workflow would cost less and result in <0.001% lower QALYs in comparison to a pathologist alone. The results were sensitive to the AI cost. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: According to our model, AI-assisted pathology would significantly decrease the workload of pathologists, would not affect patient quality of life, and would yield cost savings in Sweden when compared to a human pathologist alone. PATIENT SUMMARY: We compared outcomes for prostate cancer patients and relevant costs for two methods of assessing prostate biopsies in Sweden: (1) artificial intelligence (AI) technology and review of positive biopsies by a human pathologist; and (2) a human pathologist alone for all biopsies. We found that addition of AI would reduce the pathology workload and save money, and would not affect patient outcomes when compared to a human pathologist alone. The results suggest that adding AI to prostate pathology in Sweden would save costs.

Comparing Survival Extrapolation within All-Cause and Relative Survival Frameworks by Standard Parametric Models and Flexible Parametric Spline Models Using the Swedish Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: In health technology assessment, restricted mean survival time and life expectancy are commonly evaluated. Parametric models are typically used for extrapolation. Spline models using a relative survival framework have been shown to estimate life expectancy of cancer patients more reliably; however, more research is needed to assess spline models using an all-cause survival framework and standard parametric models using a relative survival framework. AIM: To assess survival extrapolation using standard parametric models and spline models within relative survival and all-cause survival frameworks. METHODS: From the Swedish Cancer Registry, we identified patients diagnosed with 5 types of cancer (colon, breast, melanoma, prostate, and chronic myeloid leukemia) between 1981 and 1990 with follow-up until 2020. Patients were categorized into 15 cancer cohorts by cancer and age group (18-59, 60-69, and 70-99 y). We right-censored the follow-up at 2, 3, 5, and 10 y and fitted the parametric models within an all-cause and a relative survival framework to extrapolate to 10 y and lifetime in comparison with the observed Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. All cohorts were modeled with 6 standard parametric models (exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma) and 3 spline models (on hazard, odds, and normal scales). RESULTS: For predicting 10-y survival, spline models generally performed better than standard parametric models. However, using an all-cause or a relative survival framework did not show any distinct difference. For lifetime survival, extrapolating from a relative survival framework agreed better with the observed survival, particularly using spline models. CONCLUSIONS: For extrapolation to 10 y, we recommend spline models. For extrapolation to lifetime, we suggest extrapolating in a relative survival framework, especially using spline models. HIGHLIGHTS: For survival extrapolation to 10 y, spline models generally performed better than standard parametric models did. However, using an all-cause or a relative survival framework showed no distinct difference under the same parametric model.Survival extrapolation to lifetime within a relative survival framework agreed well with the observed data, especially using spline models.Extrapolating parametric models within an all-cause survival framework may overestimate survival proportions at lifetime; models for the relative survival approach may underestimate instead.

An "All-Data-on-Hand" Deep Learning Model to Predict Hospitalization for Diabetic Ketoacidosis in Youth With Type 1 Diabetes: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Although prior research has identified multiple risk factors for diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), clinicians continue to lack clinic-ready models to predict dangerous and costly episodes of DKA. We asked whether we could apply deep learning, specifically the use of a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, to accurately predict the 180-day risk of DKA-related hospitalization for youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe the development of an LSTM model to predict the 180-day risk of DKA-related hospitalization for youth with T1D. METHODS: We used 17 consecutive calendar quarters of clinical data (January 10, 2016, to March 18, 2020) for 1745 youths aged 8 to 18 years with T1D from a pediatric diabetes clinic network in the Midwestern United States. The input data included demographics, discrete clinical observations (laboratory results, vital signs, anthropometric measures, diagnosis, and procedure codes), medications, visit counts by type of encounter, number of historic DKA episodes, number of days since last DKA admission, patient-reported outcomes (answers to clinic intake questions), and data features derived from diabetes- and nondiabetes-related clinical notes via natural language processing. We trained the model using input data from quarters 1 to 7 (n=1377), validated it using input from quarters 3 to 9 in a partial out-of-sample (OOS-P; n=1505) cohort, and further validated it in a full out-of-sample (OOS-F; n=354) cohort with input from quarters 10 to 15. RESULTS: DKA admissions occurred at a rate of 5% per 180-days in both out-of-sample cohorts. In the OOS-P and OOS-F cohorts, the median age was 13.7 (IQR 11.3-15.8) years and 13.1 (IQR 10.7-15.5) years; median glycated hemoglobin levels at enrollment were 8.6% (IQR 7.6%-9.8%) and 8.1% (IQR 6.9%-9.5%); recall was 33% (26/80) and 50% (9/18) for the top-ranked 5% of youth with T1D; and 14.15% (213/1505) and 12.7% (45/354) had prior DKA admissions (after the T1D diagnosis), respectively. For lists rank ordered by the probability of hospitalization, precision increased from 33% to 56% to 100% for positions 1 to 80, 1 to 25, and 1 to 10 in the OOS-P cohort and from 50% to 60% to 80% for positions 1 to 18, 1 to 10, and 1 to 5 in the OOS-F cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed LSTM model for predicting 180-day DKA-related hospitalization was valid in this sample. Future research should evaluate model validity in multiple populations and settings to account for health inequities that may be present in different segments of the population (eg, racially or socioeconomically diverse cohorts). Rank ordering youth by probability of DKA-related hospitalization will allow clinics to identify the most at-risk youth. The clinical implication of this is that clinics may then create and evaluate novel preventive interventions based on available resources.

Cost-effectiveness of Prostate Cancer Screening Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging or Standard Biopsy Based on the STHLM3-MRI Study.

Importance: The combination of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for prostate cancer detection has rarely been evaluated in a screening context. The STHLM3-MRI screening-by-invitation study (NCT03377881) has reported the benefits of using MRI with subsequent combined targeted and standard biopsies compared with using standard biopsies alone. Objective: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening using MRI with combined targeted and standard biopsies compared with standard biopsies alone among men aged 55 to 69 years in Sweden, based on evidence from the STHLM3-MRI study. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation study was conducted from a lifetime health care perspective using a microsimulation model to evaluate no screening and screening strategies among adult men in Sweden. Men aged 55 to 69 years in Sweden were simulated for no screening and screening strategies. Input parameters were obtained from the STHLM3-MRI study and recent reviews. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed in May 2022. Interventions: No screening, quadrennial PSA screening using standard biopsies alone, and MRI-based screening using combined targeted and standard biopsies. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of tests, incidence, deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Results: A total 603 men were randomized to the standard arm, 165 of these participants (27.4%) did not undergo standard biopsy; 929 men were randomized to the experimental arm, 111 (11.9%) of whom did undergo MRI or any biopsy. Compared with no screening, the screening strategies were associated with reduced lifetime prostate cancer-related deaths by 6% to 9%. Screening with MRI and the combined biopsies resulted in an ICER of US $53 736, which is classified as a moderate cost per QALY gained in Sweden. Relative to screening with standard biopsies alone, MRI-based screening reduced the number of both lifetime biopsies and overdiagnosis by approximately 50% and had a high probability of being cost-effective than the traditional PSA screening. Conclusions and Relevance: For prostate cancer screening, this economic evaluation study found that PSA testing followed by MRI with subsequent combined targeted and standard biopsies had a high probability to be more cost-effective compared with the traditional screening pathway using PSA and standard biopsy. MRI-based screening may be considered for early detection of prostate cancer in Sweden.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in the UK: A Decision Model Analysis Based on the CAP Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most guidelines in the UK, Europe and North America do not recommend organised population-wide screening for prostate cancer. Prostate-specific antigen-based screening can reduce prostate cancer-specific mortality, but there are concerns about overdiagnosis, overtreatment and economic value. The aim was therefore to assess the cost effectiveness of eight potential screening strategies in the UK. METHODS: We used a cost-utility analysis with an individual-based simulation model. The model was calibrated to data from the 10-year follow-up of the Cluster Randomised Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP). Treatment effects were modelled using data from the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. The participants were a hypothetical population of 10 million men in the UK followed from age 30 years to death. The strategies were: no screening; five age-based screening strategies; adaptive screening, where men with an initial prostate-specific antigen level of < 1.5 ng/mL are screened every 6 years and those above this level are screened every 4 years; and two polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies. We assumed the use of pre-biopsy multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for men with prostate-specific antigen ≥ 3 ng/mL and combined transrectal ultrasound-guided and targeted biopsies. The main outcome measures were projected lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years from a National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: All screening strategies increased costs compared with no screening, with the majority also increasing quality-adjusted life-years. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, a once-off screening at age 50 years was optimal, although this was sensitive to the utility estimates used. Although the polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were not on the cost-effectiveness frontier, there was evidence to suggest that they were less cost ineffective than the alternative age-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Of the prostate-specific antigen-based strategies compared, only a once-off screening at age 50 years was potentially cost effective at current UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. An additional follow-up of CAP to 15 years may reduce uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Predicting past and future SARS-CoV-2-related sick leave using discrete time Markov modelling.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of SARS-CoV-2-induced sick leave among healthcare workers (HCWs) is essential for being able to plan the healthcare response to the epidemic. METHODS: During first wave of the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic (April 23rd to June 24th, 2020), the HCWs in the greater Stockholm region in Sweden were invited to a study of past or present SARS-CoV-2 infection. We develop a discrete time Markov model using a cohort of 9449 healthcare workers (HCWs) who had complete data on SARS-CoV-2 RNA and antibodies as well as sick leave data for the calendar year 2020. The one-week and standardized longer term transition probabilities of sick leave and the ratios of the standardized probabilities for the baseline covariate distribution were compared with the referent period (an independent period when there were no SARS-CoV-2 infections) in relation to PCR results, serology results and gender. RESULTS: The one-week probabilities of transitioning from healthy to partial sick leave or full sick leave during the outbreak as compared to after the outbreak were highest for healthy HCWs testing positive for large amounts of virus (ratio: 3.69, (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.44-5.59) and 6.67 (95% CI: 1.58-28.13), respectively). The proportion of all sick leaves attributed to COVID-19 during outbreak was at most 55% (95% CI: 50%-59%). CONCLUSIONS: A robust Markov model enabled use of simple SARS-CoV-2 testing data for quantifying past and future COVID-related sick leave among HCWs, which can serve as a basis for planning of healthcare during outbreaks.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Stockholm3 Test and Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Prostate Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Stockholm3 is a risk model that combines the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, other plasma protein biomarkers, single nucleotide polymorphisms, and clinical variables. The STHLM3-MRI study (NCT03377881) found that the Stockholm3 test with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and combined targeted and systematic biopsies maintained the sensitivity for clinically significant cancers, and reduced the number of benign biopsies and clinically insignificant cancers. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of MRI-based screening for prostate cancer using either Stockholm3 as a reflex test or PSA alone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cost-utility analysis was performed from a lifetime societal perspective using a microsimulation model for men aged 55-69 yr in Sweden. Test characteristics were estimated from the STHLM3-MRI study. INTERVENTION: No screening and three quadrennial screening strategies, including either PSA ≥3 ng/ml or Stockholm3 with reflex test thresholds of PSA ≥1.5 or 2 ng/ml as criteria for referral to MRI, were performed, and those who were MRI positive had combined targeted and systematic biopsies. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Predictions included the number of tests, cancer incidence and mortality, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years. Uncertainties in key parameters were assessed using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Compared with no screening, the screening strategies were predicted to reduce prostate cancer deaths by 7-9% across a lifetime. The use of Stockholm3 with PSA ≥2 ng/ml resulted in a 60% reduction in MRI compared with screening using PSA. This Stockholm3 strategy was cost-effective with a probability of 70% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of €47 218 (500 000 Swedish Kronor). As a potential limitation, the economic perspective was specific to Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: Screening with the Stockholm3 test at a reflex threshold of PSA ≥2 ng/ml and MRI was predicted to be cost-effective in Sweden. PATIENT SUMMARY: The Stockholm3 test with image-based screening may reduce screening-related harms and costs, while maintaining the health benefits from early detection of prostate cancer.

Comparing Modeling Approaches for Discrete Event Simulations With Competing Risks Based on Censored Individual Patient Data: A Simulation Study and Illustration in Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide detailed guidance on modeling approaches for implementing competing events in discrete event simulations based on censored individual patient data (IPD). METHODS: The event-specific distributions (ESDs) approach sampled times from event-specific time-to-event distributions and simulated the first event to occur. The unimodal distribution and regression approach sampled a time from a combined unimodal time-to-event distribution, representing all events, and used a (multinomial) logistic regression model to select the event to be simulated. A simulation study assessed performance in terms of relative absolute event incidence difference and relative entropy of time-to-event distributions for different types and levels of right censoring, numbers of events, distribution overlap, and sample sizes. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates were illustrated in a colorectal cancer case study. RESULTS: Increased levels of censoring negatively affected the modeling approaches' performance. A lower number of competing events and higher overlap of distributions improved performance. When IPD were censored at random times, ESD performed best. When censoring occurred owing to a maximum follow-up time for 2 events, ESD performed better for a low level of censoring (ie, 10%). For 3 or 4 competing events, ESD better represented the probabilities of events, whereas unimodal distribution and regression better represented the time to events. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates, both compared with no censoring and between approaches, increased with increasing censoring levels. CONCLUSIONS: Modelers should be aware of the different modeling approaches available and that selection between approaches may be informed by data characteristics. Performing and reporting extensive validation efforts remains essential to ensure IPD are appropriately represented.

Human exposome assessment platform.

The Human Exposome Assessment Platform (HEAP) is a research resource for the integrated and efficient management and analysis of human exposome data. The project will provide the complete workflow for obtaining exposome actionable knowledge from population-based cohorts. HEAP is a state-of-the-science service composed of computational resources from partner institutions, accessed through a software framework that provides the world's fastest Hadoop platform for data warehousing and applied artificial intelligence (AI). The software, will provide a decision support system for researchers and policymakers. All the data managed and processed by HEAP, together with the analysis pipelines, will be available for future research. In addition, the platform enables adding new data and analysis pipelines. HEAP's final product can be deployed in multiple instances to create a network of shareable and reusable knowledge on the impact of exposures on public health.

Cost-Effectiveness of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Prostate Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with combinations of targeted biopsy (TBx) and systematic biopsy (SBx) for early prostate cancer detection in Sweden. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a lifetime societal perspective using a microsimulation model. Five strategies included no screening and quadrennial screening for men aged 55 to 69 years using SBx alone, TBx on positive MRI (MRI + TBx), combined TBx/SBx on positive MRI (MRI + TBx/SBx), and SBx on negative MRI with TBx/SBx on positive MRI (MRI - SBx, MRI + TBx/SBx). Test characteristics were based on a recent Cochrane review. We predicted the number of biopsies, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: The screening strategies were classified in Sweden as high costs per QALY gained compared with no screening. Using MRI + TBx and MRI + TBx/SBx reduced the number of biopsy episodes across a lifetime by approximately 40% compared with SBx alone. Both strategies showed strong dominance over SBx alone and MRI - SBx, MRI + TBx. Compared with MRI + TBx, the MRI + TBx/SBx strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of more than €200 000 per QALY gained, which was classified in Sweden as a very high cost. These predictions were robust in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Limitations included generalizability of the model assumptions and uncertainty regarding the health-state values and study heterogeneity from the Cochrane review. CONCLUSIONS: MRI + TBx and MRI + TBx/SBx showed strong dominance over alternative screening strategies. MRI + TBx resulted in similar or marginally lower gains in QALYs and lower costs than MRI + TBx/SBx. MRI + TBx was considered the optimal choice among the screening strategies.

The cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening using the Stockholm3 test.

OBJECTIVES: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer found that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening reduced prostate cancer mortality, however the costs and harms from screening may outweigh any mortality reduction. Compared with screening using the PSA test alone, using the Stockholm3 Model (S3M) as a reflex test for PSA ≥ 1 ng/mL has the same sensitivity for Gleason score ≥ 7 cancers while the relative positive fractions for Gleason score 6 cancers and no cancer were 0.83 and 0.56, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of the S3M test has not previously been assessed. METHODS: We undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis from a lifetime societal perspective. Using a microsimulation model, we simulated for: (i) no prostate cancer screening; (ii) screening using the PSA test; and (iii) screening using the S3M test as a reflex test for PSA values ≥ 1, 1.5 and 2 ng/mL. Screening strategies included quadrennial re-testing for ages 55-69 years performed by a general practitioner. Discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. RESULTS: Comparing S3M with a reflex threshold of 2 ng/mL with screening using the PSA test, S3M had increased effectiveness, reduced lifetime biopsies by 30%, and increased societal costs by 0.4%. Relative to the PSA test, the S3M reflex thresholds of 1, 1.5 and 2 ng/mL had ICERs of 170,000, 60,000 and 6,000 EUR/QALY, respectively. The S3M test was more cost-effective at higher biopsy costs. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer screening using the S3M test for men with an initial PSA ≥ 2.0 ng/mL was cost-effective compared with screening using the PSA test alone.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary HPV testing for unvaccinated women in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Sweden revised their cervical cancer screening program in 2017 to include cytology-based screening for women aged 23-29 years and primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30-64 years; however, alternative strategies may be preferred. To inform cervical cancer prevention policies for unvaccinated women, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies, including the current Swedish guidelines. METHODS: We adapted a mathematical simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer to the Swedish context using primary epidemiologic data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies that varied by the age to start screening, the age to switch from cytology to HPV testing, HPV strategies not preceded by cytology, screening frequency, and management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women. RESULTS: We found that the current Swedish guidelines were more costly and less effective than alternative primary HPV-based strategies. All cost-efficient strategies involved primary HPV testing not preceded by cytology for younger women. Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of €85,619 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the optimal strategy involved 5-yearly primary HPV-based screening for women aged 23-50 years and 10-yearly HPV-based screening for women older than age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Primary screening based on HPV alone may be considered for unvaccinated women for those countries with similar HPV burdens.

The economic burden of prostate cancer - a Swedish prevalence-based register study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence and prevalence of prostate cancer in Sweden have increased markedly due to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Moreover, new diagnostic tests and treatment technologies are expected to further increase the overall costs. Our aims were (i) to estimate the societal costs for existing testing, diagnosis, management and treatment of prostate cancer, and (ii) to provide reference values for future cost-effectiveness analyses of prostate cancer screening and treatment. METHODS: Taking a societal perspective, this study aimed to investigate the annual cost of prostate cancer in Sweden using a prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach. Resource utilisation and related costs within Stockholm Region during 2016 were quantified using data from the Stockholm PSA and Biopsy Register and other health and population registers. Costs included: (i) direct medical costs for health care utilisation at primary care, hospitals, palliative care and prescribed drugs; (ii) informal care; and (iii) indirect costs due to morbidity and premature mortality. The resource utilisation was valued using unit costs for direct medical costs and the human capital method for informal care and indirect costs. Costs for the Stockholm region were extrapolated to Sweden based on cancer prevalence and the average costs by age and resource type. RESULTS: The societal costs due to prostate cancer in Stockholm in 2016 were estimated to be €64 million Euro (€Mn), of which the direct medical costs, informal care and productivity losses represented 62, 28 and 10% of the total costs, respectively. The total annual costs extrapolated to Sweden were calculated to be €281 Mn. The average direct medical cost, average costs for informal care and productivity losses per prevalent case were €1510, €828 and €271, respectively. These estimates were sensitive to assumptions related to the proportion of primary care visits associated with PSA testing and the valuation method for informal care. CONCLUSION: The societal costs due to prostate cancer were substantial and constitute a considerable burden to Swedish society. Data from this study are relevant for future cost-effectiveness evaluations of prostate cancer screening and treatment.

Diabetes Healthcare Professionals Use Multiple Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data Indicators to Assess Glucose Management.

BACKGROUND: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) offers multiple data features that can be leveraged to assess glucose management. However, how diabetes healthcare professionals (HCPs) actually assess CGM data and the extent to which they agree in assessing glycemic management are not well understood. METHODS: We asked HCPs to assess ten de-identified CGM datasets (each spanning seven days) and rank order each day by relative glycemic management (from "best" to "worst"). We also asked HCPs to endorse features of CGM data that were important in making such assessments. RESULTS: In the study, 57 HCPs (29 endocrinologists; 28 diabetes educators) participated. Hypoglycemia and glycemic variance were endorsed by nearly all HCPs to be important (91% and 88%, respectively). Time in range and daily lows and highs were endorsed more frequently by educators (all Ps < .05). On average, HCPs endorsed 3.7 of eight data features. Overall, HCPs demonstrated agreement in ranking days by relative glycemic control (Kendall's W = .52, P < .001). Rankings were similar between endocrinologists and educators (R2 = .90, Cohen's kappa = .95, mean absolute error = .4 [all Ps < .05]; Mann-Whitney U = 41, P = .53). CONCLUSIONS: Consensus in the endorsement of certain data features and agreement in assessing glycemic management were observed. While some practice-specific differences in feature endorsement were found, no differences between educators and endocrinologists were observed in assessing glycemic management. Overall, HCPs tended to consider CGM data holistically, in alignment with published recommendations, and made converging assessments regardless of practice.

Impact of model misspecification in shared frailty survival models.

Survival models incorporating random effects to account for unmeasured heterogeneity are being increasingly used in biostatistical and applied research. Specifically, unmeasured covariates whose lack of inclusion in the model would lead to biased, inefficient results are commonly modeled by including a subject-specific (or cluster-specific) frailty term that follows a given distribution (eg, gamma or lognormal). Despite that, in the context of parametric frailty models, little is known about the impact of misspecifying the baseline hazard or the frailty distribution or both. Therefore, our aim is to quantify the impact of such misspecification in a wide variety of clinically plausible scenarios via Monte Carlo simulation, using open-source software readily available to applied researchers. We generate clustered survival data assuming various baseline hazard functions, including mixture distributions with turning points, and assess the impact of sample size, variance of the frailty, baseline hazard function, and frailty distribution. Models compared include standard parametric distributions and more flexible spline-based approaches; we also included semiparametric Cox models. The resulting bias can be clinically relevant. In conclusion, we highlight the importance of fitting models that are flexible enough and the importance of assessing model fit. We illustrate our conclusions with two applications using data on diabetic retinopathy and bladder cancer. Our results show the importance of assessing model fit with respect to the baseline hazard function and the distribution of the frailty: misspecifying the former leads to biased relative and absolute risk estimates, whereas misspecifying the latter affects absolute risk estimates and measures of heterogeneity.

Assessment of biomarkers of inflammation and premature atherosclerosis in adolescents with type-1 diabetes mellitus.

Background Type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) causes endothelial dysfunction and early atherosclerosis, which can result in premature coronary artery disease. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of glycemic control, vascular oxidative stress and inflammation on vascular health in adolescents with T1DM. Methods This was a cross-sectional study in adolescents with age- and sex-matched T1DM who were ≥12 years and were at least 2 years post-diagnosis. Recruitment was balanced to include individuals with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≤8.5% (n=27) or with HbA1c ≥9.5% (n=25). Biomarkers of inflammation were measured in the blood including C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), E-selectin, fibrinogen and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α). Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT) were assessed. Results Plasma E-selectin level was significantly different between the two groups with higher levels in the group with HbA1c ≥9.5% (65.0±27.7 ng/mL vs. 48.8±21.5 ng/mL, p=0.02). Though cIMT and PAT were not significantly different between the groups, Pearson correlation showed a significant direct relationship between rising HbA1c and mean right cIMT (p=0.02; r=0.37), PAT (p=0.03, r=0.31) and fibrinogen (p=0.03, r=0.03). Conclusions Elevated E-selectin level is an early marker of oxidative stress in T1DM patients with an elevated HbA1c level. Suboptimal glycemic control as evidenced by a rising HbA1c causes early atherosclerosis.

The International Society of Urological Pathology Education web-a web-based system for training and testing of pathologists.

Pathology training resources remain scarce in many parts of the world. With rapid economic development comes the need to educate new pathologists to meet the medical care demands. Our aim was to set up a cost-effective system for training and testing the diagnostic skills of pathologists. Pathologists in nine countries in Asia and South America were invited by the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) to participate in a prostate pathology education course combining image-based tests with lectures and on-line tutorials. The tests and tutorials are available free of charge at the ISUP education website www.edu.isupweb.org . A total of 603 pathologists registered on the website. Of these, 224 completed pre- and post-lecture assessments (tests 1 and 2). Replies were classified as correct/acceptable, when a lesion was accurately classified into clinically relevant categories (benign, cancer, high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, intraductal carcinoma of the prostate). The rate of correct/acceptable replies increased from 60.7 to 72.3% in Tests 1 and 2, respectively. In Test 1, pathologists from upper middle, lower middle, and low resource countries gave a correct/acceptable diagnosis in 65.8%, 61.0%, and 47.4%, respectively. Their results improved in Test 2 to 76.4%, 72.5%, and 62.8%, respectively. The greatest improvement in diagnostic ability was achieved in pathologists from the low resource group of countries. The use of web-based testing and training, combined with lectures, is an efficient method for improving diagnostic skills of pathologists in low to middle resource countries.

Differential uptake of herpes zoster vaccination associated with socioeconomic status: A population-based study in Stockholm County, Sweden.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) was associated with socioeconomic status in Stockholm, when the vaccine was reimbursed in Sweden. METHODS: This was an observational retrospective case-control study, using population-based health care registers. During the study period, September 2013 to November 2014, the HZV was reimbursed as part of the National Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in Sweden and recommended for individuals over 50 years. A case was any person, living in Stockholm County, who received HZV during the study period. For each case, 10 (unvaccinated) controls living in Stockholm County were selected and matched by age and sex. In total, 9099 cases and 89 736 controls were included. Socioeconomic variables investigated included education, income, immigration status, and marital status. We also investigated whether HZV was associated with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and/or previous herpes zoster diagnosis. RESULTS: Mean age at vaccination was 69.8 years, and 65.8% of vaccinees were women. There was a positive association between vaccination and higher education (OR = 3.4 (95% CI 3.0-3.8) for men and OR = 2.8 (95% CI 2.6-3.0) for women, respectively) in comparison to primary education. Higher income and being married were positively associated with vaccination, particularly for men, whereas being an immigrant was negatively associated. There was a negative association between a higher CCI score and HZV, indicating that healthier individuals were more likely to have been vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the vaccine being part of the National Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme, receipt of the HZV was significantly associated with socioeconomic factors.