Does Consumer Credit Precede or Follow Changes in Cognitive Impairment Among Older Adults? An Investigation in the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) Trial.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the relationships between pre- and post-morbid consumer credit history (credit scores, debts unpaid, or in collections) and classification of mild (or greater) cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: Generalized Estimating Equation models assessed pre-and post-morbid credit history and MCI risk among 1740 participants aged 65+ in the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) study, linked to TransUnion consumer credit data. RESULTS: Each 50-point increase in credit score was associated with up to 8% lower odds of MCI in the next 3 years. In contrast, new unpaid collections over doubled the odds of having MCI in the next 3 years. MCI was associated with subsequent credit score declines and a 47%-71% greater risk of having a new unpaid collection in the next 4 years. DISCUSSION: Credit declines may signal risk for future MCI. MCI may lead to financial challenges that warrant credit monitoring interventions for older adults.

Family spillovers and long-term care insurance.

We examine how long-term care insurance (LTCI) affects informal care use and expectations among the insured individuals and co-residence and labor market outcomes of their adult children. We address the endogeneity of LTCI coverage by instrumenting for LTCI with changes in state tax treatment of LTCI insurance policies. We do not find evidence of reductions in informal care use over a horizon of approximately eight years. However, we find that LTCI coverage reduces parents' perceptions of the willingness of their children to care for them in the future and that the behavior of adult children changes, with LTCI resulting in lower likelihoods of adult children co-residing and stronger labor market attachment. These findings provide empirical support for the presence of spillovers of LTCI on the economic behaviors of family members.

Can a Home-Based Collaborative Care Model Reduce Health Services Utilization for Older Medicaid Beneficiaries Living with Depression and Co-occurring Chronic Conditions? A Quasi-experimental Study.

Depression remains a major public health issue for older adults, increasing risk of costly health services utilization. While home-based collaborative care models (CCM) like PEARLS have been shown to effectively treat depression in low-income older adults living with multiple chronic conditions, their economic impact is unclear. We conducted a quasi-experimental study to estimate PEARLS effect on health service utilization among low-income older adults. Our secondary data analysis merged de-identified PEARLS program data (N = 1106), home and community-based services (HCBS) administrative data (N = 16,096), and Medicaid claims and encounters data (N = 164) from 2011 to 2016 in Washington State. We used nearest neighbor propensity matching to create a comparison group of social service recipients similar to PEARLS participants on key determinants of utilization guided by Andersen's Model. Primary outcomes were inpatient hospitalizations, emergency room (ER) visits, and nursing home days; secondary outcomes were long-term supports and services (LTSS), mortality, depression and health. We used an event study difference-in-difference (DID) approach to compare outcomes. Our final dataset included 164 older adults (74% female, 39% people of color, mean PHQ-9 12.2). One-year post-enrollment, PEARLS participants had statistically significant improvements in inpatient hospitalizations (69 fewer hospitalizations per 1000 member months, p = 0.02) and 37 fewer nursing home days (p < 0.01) than comparison group participants; there were no significant improvements in ER visits. PEARLS participants also experienced lower mortality. This study shows the potential value of home-based CCM for participants, organizations and policymakers. Future research is needed to examine potential cost savings.

Rural disparities in use of family and formal caregiving for older adults with disabilities.

BACKGROUND: As federal and state policies rebalance long-term care from institutional settings to home- and community-based settings, reliance on formal (paid) and family (unpaid) caregivers for support at home nationally has increased in recent years. Yet, it is unknown if use of formal and family care varies by rurality. METHODS: Using the Health and Retirement Study, we describe patterns in receipt of combinations of formal and family home care and self-reported expectation of nursing home use by rurality among community-dwelling adults aged 65+ with functional limitations from 2004 to 2016. RESULTS: Older adults residing in rural areas are more likely to receive any family care than those in urban areas. From 2004 to 2016, a higher proportion of older adults in rural areas receive care from family caregivers exclusively while a lower proportion receive care from formal caregivers exclusively. When examining older adults in urban areas, we find the opposite - a higher proportion of urban adults rely exclusively on formal care and a lower proportion rely exclusively on family care in 2016 compared to 2004. CONCLUSION: We find that national estimates of sources of caregiving and their changes over time mask significant heterogeneity in uptake by rurality. Understanding how older adults in rural areas are, or are not, receiving home-based care compared to their urban peers and how these patterns are changing over time is the first step to informing supports for family and formal caregivers.

Public spending on acute and long-term care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

INTRODUCTION: We estimate the spending attributable to Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) to the United States government for the first 5 years post-diagnosis. METHODS: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study matched to Medicare and Medicaid claims, we identify a retrospective cohort of adults with a claims-based ADRD diagnosis along with matched controls. RESULTS: The costs attributable to ADRD are $15,632 for traditional Medicare and $8833 for Medicaid per dementia case over the first 5 years after diagnosis. Seventy percent of Medicare costs occur in the first 2 years; Medicaid costs are concentrated among the longer-lived beneficiaries who are more likely to need long-term care and become Medicaid eligible. DISCUSSION: Because the distribution of the incremental costs varies over time and between insurance programs, when interventions occur and the effect on the disease course will have implications for how much and which program reaps the benefits.

Racial and ethnic disparities in access to and enrollment in high-quality Medicare Advantage plans.

OBJECTIVE: Racial and ethnic minority enrollees in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans tend to be in lower-quality plans, measured by a 5-star quality rating system. We examine whether differential access to high-rated plans was associated with this differential enrollment in high-rated plans by race and ethnicity among MA enrollees. DATA SOURCES: The Medicare Master Beneficiary Summary File and MA Landscape File for 2016. STUDY DESIGN: We first examined county-level MA plan offerings by race and ethnicity. We then examined the association of racial and ethnic differences in enrollment by star rating by controlling for the following different sets of covariates: (1) individual-level characteristics only, and (2) individual-level characteristics and county-level MA plan offerings. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Not applicable PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Racial and ethnic minority enrollees had, on average, more MA plans available in their counties of residence compared to White enrollees (16.1, 20.8, 20.2, vs. 15.1 for Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and White enrollees), but had fewer number of high-rated plans (4-star plans or higher) and/or more number of low-rated plans (3.5-star plans or lower). While racial and ethnic minority enrollees had lower enrollment in 4-4.5 star plans than White enrollees, this difference substantially decreased after accounting for county-level MA plan offerings (-9.1 to -0.5 percentage points for Black enrollees, -15.9 to -5.0 percentage points for Asian/Pacific Islander enrollees, and -12.7 to 0.6 percentage points for Hispanic enrollees). Results for Black enrollees were notable as the racial difference reversed when we limited the analysis to those who live in counties that offer a 5-star plan. After accounting for county-level MA plan offerings, Black enrollees had 3.2 percentage points higher enrollment in 5-star plans than White enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in enrollment in high-rated MA plans by race and ethnicity may be explained by limited access and not by individual characteristics or enrollment decisions.

Association of Medicare Advantage Star Ratings With Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Hospitalizations for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions.

BACKGROUND: Enrollment in high-quality Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, measured by a 5-star quality rating system, was lower among racial and ethnic minority enrollees than White enrollees partly due to fewer high-quality plans available in their counties of residence. This may contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in ambulatory care sensitive condition (ACSC) hospitalizations. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether there were racial and ethnic disparities in ACSC hospitalizations among MA enrollees overall and by star rating. METHODS: Using the Medicare enrollment and claims data for 2016, we identified White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander enrollees in MA plans. We estimated racial and ethnic disparities in ACSC hospitalizations (per 10,000 enrollees) overall and by star rating. RESULTS: We found that the adjusted rates of ACSC hospitalizations were significantly higher among Black enrollees than White enrollees overall [39.4 (95% confidence interval: 36.3-42.5)]. However, no significant disparities were found among Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander enrollees. The adjusted rates of ACSC hospitalizations were higher in lower-rated plans than higher-rated plans in all racial and ethnic groups. The significant disparities in ACSC hospitalizations by star rating were the most pronounced between White and Black enrollees. We found suggestive evidence that enrollment in lower-rated plans was associated with higher disparities in ACSC hospitalizations between White and Black enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial disparities in ACSC hospitalizations exist between White and Black enrollees in MA plans, especially for lower-rated plans. Policies aimed at reducing racial disparities in ACSC hospitalizations could include improving access to high-rated plans.

Insurance coverage and health care spending by state-level Medigap regulations.

OBJECTIVES: Medigap protects traditional Medicare (TM) beneficiaries against catastrophic expenses. Federal regulations around Medigap enrollment and pricing are limited to the first 6 months after turning 65 years old. Eight states institute regulations that apply to later enrollment; half use community rating (charging everyone the same premium) and half use both community rating and guaranteed issue (requiring insurers to accept any beneficiary irrespective of health conditions). We examined the impact of state-level Medigap regulations on insurance coverage and health care spending for Medicare beneficiaries. STUDY DESIGN: We used a retrospective cohort study design. Using the 2010-2016 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, we identified beneficiaries with TM only, TM + Medigap, or Medicare Advantage (MA) by state-level Medigap regulations. METHODS: Outcomes were insurance coverage and health care spending. We used an instrumental variable approach to address endogenous insurance choice. We conducted 2-stage least squares regression while controlling for individual-level characteristics and area-level demographic characteristics. Then we used the recycled prediction methods to predict enrollment and spending outcomes for the 3 state-level Medigap regulation scenarios. RESULTS: Although enrollment in TM only was consistent across regulation scenarios, the scenario with community rating and guaranteed issue had lower Medigap enrollment and higher MA enrollment than the no-regulation scenario. Despite negligible health differences, TM + Medigap beneficiaries had higher Medicare spending than TM-only beneficiaries, suggesting moral hazard. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a link between additional regulations and lower Medigap and higher MA enrollment. Policy makers should consider the potential effects on insurance coverage, premiums, financial protection, and moral hazard when designing Medigap regulations.

Out-of-pocket costs attributable to dementia: A longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) affect 5.7 million Americans, and are expensive despite the lack of a cure or even treatments effective in managing the disease. The literature thus far has tended to focus on the costs to Medicare, even though one of the main characteristics of ADRD (the loss of independence and ability to care for oneself) incurs costs not covered by Medicare. METHODS: In this paper, we use survey data for 2002-2016 from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate the out-of-pocket costs of ADRD for the patient and their family through the first 8 years after the onset of symptoms, as defined by a standardized 27-point scale of cognitive ability. A two-part model developed by Basu and Manning (2010) allows us to separate the costs attributable to ADRD into two components, one driven by differences in longevity and one driven by differences in utilization. RESULTS: We identified a cohort of 3619 incident dementia cases, 38.9% were male, and 66.9% were non-Hispanic White. Dementia onset was 77.7 years of age, on average. OOP costs attributable to dementia are $8751 over the first 8 years after the onset. These incremental costs are driven by nursing home expenditures, which are largely uninsured in the US. OOP spending is highest for whites and women. CONCLUSION: The financial burden of ADRD is significant, and largely attributable to the lack of wide-spread long-term care insurance.

Effects of Medicare advantage on patterns of end-of-life care among Medicare decedents.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment on patterns of end-of-life care. DATA SOURCES: We used data from the Master Beneficiary Summary File, the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review, hospice claims, the Minimum Data Set, the Outcome and Assessment Information Set, the Area Health Resources File, and Geographic Variation Public Use File for 2012-2014. STUDY DESIGN: To address selective enrollment into MA, we exploited a discontinuity in payment rates by county population (urban floor payments) as an instrument. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We identified Medicare beneficiaries continuously enrolled in MA or TM during their last year of life between 2012 and 2014 using Medicare administrative data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We did not find evidence that MA enrollment led to a change in hospital admissions in the last 30 days of life, but MA enrollment decreased hospital as the site of death by 11.0 (95% CI: -13.9 to -8.1) percentage points. Once hospitalized, however, MA enrollment increased use of intensive care by 6.7 (95% CI: 0.3 to 13.1) percentage points and non-invasive mechanical ventilation by 9.2 (95% CI: 5.5 to 12.9) percentage points. MA enrollment increased hospice use by 6.2 (95% CI: 2.3 to 10.1) percentage points at time of death and 7.7 (95% CI: 3.8 to 11.6) percentage points in the last 30 days of life. Particularly, MA enrollment increased hospice admissions among those who were admitted to the hospital within 30 days prior to hospice admission by 18.8 (95% CI: 13.8 to 23.8) percentage points. However, MA enrollment decreased hospice admissions among those who were admitted to home health within 30 days prior to hospice admission by 18.6 (95% CI: -21.9 to -15.2) percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: MA plans may improve end-of-life care by reducing hospital death while also improving access to hospice, especially among recently hospitalized persons.

Sweetened beverage taxes: Economic benefits and costs according to household income.

Taxing sweetened beverages has emerged as an important and effective policy for addressing their overconsumption. However, taxes may place a greater economic burden on people with lower incomes. We assess the degree to which sweetened beverage taxes in three large US cities placed an inequitable burden on populations with lower incomes by assessing spending on beverage taxes by income after taxes have been implemented, as well as any net transfer of funds towards lower income populations once allocation of tax revenue is considered. We find that while lower income populations pay a higher percentage of their income in beverage taxes, there is no difference in absolute spending on beverage taxes per capita, and that there is a sizable net transfer of funds towards programs targeting lower income populations. Thus, when considering both population-level taxes paid and sufficiently targeted allocations of tax revenues, a sweetened beverage tax may have characteristics of an equitable public policy.

Younger Individuals Increase Their Use of Nursing Homes Following ACA Medicaid Expansion.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the effect of Medicaid eligibility expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on the utilization of nursing home services by younger individuals and those covered by Medicaid. DESIGN: Compared the age of nursing home residents, proportion of individuals covered by Medicaid, annual nursing home admissions in those younger than 65, and nursing home length of stay in states that expanded Medicaid eligibility through the ACA to states that did not. We used data from LTCFocus (nursing home level), the Minimum Data Set (individual level), and Medicaid expansion status from the Kaiser Family Foundation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study included 15,005,888 nursing home admissions, 2,446,950 of which were residents younger than 65, across 14,132 nursing homes between 2009 and 2016. METHODS: A time-varying difference-in-difference model including state and year fixed effects with effect modification by pre-2014 nursing home occupancy. RESULTS: Facilities in expansion states with a pre-ACA occupancy rate of more than 70% increased the fraction of residents younger than 65 by 2.74% to 6.32%, compared with similar facilities in nonexpansion states. Medicaid admissions varied, with an increase in year 2 after expansion compared with nonexpansion states. Among residents entering from an acute care hospital, the proportion younger than 65 increased in facilities with pre-2014 occupancy rates of more than 70%, compared with similar facilities in nonexpansion states, an increase of up to 6.51%. Median nursing home length of stay for individuals younger than 65 decreased relative to nonexpansion states across all occupancy categories, ranging from 1.68 to 6.06 days after Medicaid expansion. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Medicaid expansion increased access to nursing home post-acute care for individuals younger than 65. It remains unclear if the benefit of post-acute care is the same among this group, or if the needs of younger individuals can be adequately met in this setting.

Racial Disparities in Avoidable Hospitalizations in Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage.

IMPORTANCE: Compared with traditional Medicare (TM), Medicare Advantage (MA) has the potential to reduce racial disparities in hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC). As racial disparities may be partly attributable to unequal treatment based on where people live, this suggests the need of examining geographic variations in racial disparities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine differences in ACSC hospitalizations between White and Black beneficiaries in TM and MA and examine geographic variations in racial differences in ACSC hospitalizations in TM and MA. METHODS: We analyzed the 2015-2016 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review files. We used propensity score matching to account for differences in characteristics between TM and MA beneficiaries. Then, we conducted linear regression and estimated adjusted outcomes for TM and MA beneficiaries by race. Also, we estimated racial differences in adjusted outcomes by insurance and hospital referral region (HRR). RESULTS: While White beneficiaries in TM and MA had similar rates of ACSC hospitalizations (163.7 vs. 162.2/10,000 beneficiaries), Black beneficiaries in MA had higher rates of ACSC hospitalizations than Black beneficiaries in TM (221.2 vs. 209.3/10,000 beneficiaries). However, the racial differences were greater in MA than TM (59.0 vs. 45.6/10,000 beneficiaries). Racial differences in ACSC hospitalizations in MA were prevalent across almost all HRRs. 95.5% of HRRs had higher rates of ACSC hospitalizations among Black beneficiaries than White beneficiaries in MA relative to just 54.2% of HRRs in TM. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence of racial disparities in access to high-quality primary care, especially in MA.

Chronic Care, Dementia Care Management, and Financial Considerations.

The needs of persons living with Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementia (AD/ADRD) are challenged by tremendous complexity impacting both care delivery and financing. Most persons living with dementia (PLWD) also suffer from other chronic medical or mental health conditions, which further burden quality of life and function. In addition to difficult treatment choices, optimal dementia care models likely involve people and services that are not typical pieces of the health care delivery system but are all critical partners-care partners, social workers, and community services, to name a few. More than 200 models of dementia care have demonstrated some efficacy. However, these successful interventions that might address much of the care needed by PLWD are uninsured in the United States, where insurance coverage has focused on acute care needs. This poses great difficulties for both care provision and care financing. In this article, we review these 3 key challenges: dementia care for those with chronic comorbid disease; care models that require people who are not typical providers in traditional care delivery systems; and the mandate to provide high-quality care that is currently not funded by usual health care insurance. We propose promising next steps that could substantially improve the lives of PLWD and the lives of their care partners, and highlight some of the many research questions that remain.

State-Level Evaluation of Washington's State Innovation Models (SIM) Initiative.

The Washington State Innovation Models (SIM) $65 million Test Award from the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Innovation Center is a statewide intervention expected to improve population health, quality of care, and cost growth through four initiatives: 1) regional accountable communities of health linking health and social services to address local needs; 2) a practice transformation support hub; 3) four value-based payment reform pilot projects mainly in state employee and Medicaid populations; and 4) data and analytic infrastructure development to support system transformation with common measures. We develop a conceptual model based on diffusion theory and apply the RE-AIM evaluation framework (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) to structure our evaluation. We find that in three years (2016-2018), SIM built the infrastructure for system transformation and increased Washington's readiness for health system change in the next decade. However, the initiatives have not spread statewide, which may take over 10 years.

Statewide Evaluation of Washington's State Innovation Model Initiative: A Mixed-Methods Approach.

The Washington State Innovation Model (SIM) $65 million Test Award from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation is a statewide intervention expected to improve population health, quality of care, and cost growth through 4 initiatives in 2016-2018: (1) regional accountable communities of health linking health and social services to address local needs; (2) a practice transformation support hub; (3) four value-based payment reform pilot projects mainly in state employee and Medicaid populations; and (4) data and analytic infrastructure development to support system transformation with common measures. A mixed-methods study design and data from the 2013-2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Surveys are used to estimate whether SIM resulted in changes in access to care, health behaviors, and health status in Washington's adult population. Semi-structured qualitative interviews also were conducted to assess stakeholder perceptions of SIM performance. SIM may have reduced binge drinking, but no effects were detected for heavy drinking, physical activity, smoking, having a regular doctor checkup, unmet health care needs, and fair or poor health status. Complex interventions, such as SIM, may have unintended consequences. SIM was associated unexpectedly with increased unhealthy days, but whether the association was related to the Initiative or other factors is unclear. Over 3 years, stakeholders generally agreed that SIM was implemented successfully and increased Washington's readiness for system transformation but had not yet produced expected outcomes, partly because SIM had not spread statewide. Stakeholders perceived that scaling up SIM statewide takes time to achieve and remains challenging.