Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation.

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.

Expanding access to parasite-based malaria diagnosis through retail drug shops in Tanzania: evidence from a randomized trial and implications for treatment.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania has seen a reduction in the fraction of fevers caused by malaria, likely due in part to scale-up of control measures. While national guidelines require parasite-based diagnosis prior to treatment, it is estimated that more than half of suspected malaria treatment-seeking in Tanzania initiates in the private retail sector, where diagnosis by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy is illegal. This pilot study investigated whether the introduction of RDTs into Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) under realistic market conditions would improve case management practices. METHODS: Dispensers from ADDOs in two intervention districts in Tanzania were trained to stock and perform RDTs and monitored quarterly. Each district was assigned a different recommended retail price to evaluate the need for a subsidy. Malaria RDT and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) uptake and availability were measured pre-intervention and 1 year post-intervention through structured surveys of ADDO owners and exiting customers in both intervention districts and one contiguous control district. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare the three districts and identify predictive variables for testing. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A total of 310 dispensers from 262 ADDOs were trained to stock and perform RDTs. RDT availability in intervention ADDOs increased from 1% (n = 172) to 73% (n = 163) during the study; ACT medicines were available in 75% of 260 pre-intervention and 68% of 254 post-intervention ADDOs. Pre-treatment testing performed within the ADDO increased from 0 to 65% of suspected malaria patients who visited a shop (95% CI 60.8-69.6%) with no difference between intervention districts. Overall parasite-based diagnosis increased from 19 to 74% in intervention districts and from 3 to 18% in the control district. Prior knowledge of RDT availability (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.03) and RDT experience (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.01) were predictors for testing. Adherence data indicated that 75% of malaria positives received ACT, while 3% of negatives received ACT. CONCLUSIONS: Trained and supervised ADDO dispensers in rural Tanzania performed and sold RDTs under real market conditions to two-thirds of suspected malaria patients during this one-year pilot. These results support the hypothesis that introducing RDTs into regulated private retail sector settings can improve malaria testing and treatment practices without an RDT subsidy. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN14115509.

Bioeconomic analysis of child-targeted subsidies for artemisinin combination therapies: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

The Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria (AMFm) was conceived as a global market-based mechanism to increase access to effective malaria treatment and prolong effectiveness of artemisinin. Although results from a pilot implementation suggested that the subsidy was effective in increasing access to high-quality artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), the Global Fund has converted AMFm into a country-driven mechanism whereby individual countries could choose to fund the subsidy from within their country envelopes. Because the initial costs of the subsidy in the pilot countries was higher than expected, countries are also exploring alternatives to a universal subsidy, such as subsidizing only child doses. We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of a child-targeted policy using an age-structured bioeconomic model of malaria from the provider perspective. Because the vast majority of malaria deaths occur in children, targeting children could potentially improve the cost-effectiveness of the subsidy, though it would avert significantly fewer deaths. However, the benefits of a child-targeted subsidy (i.e. deaths averted) are eroded as leakage (i.e. older individuals taking young child-targeted doses) increases, with few of the benefits of a universal subsidy gained (i.e. reductions in overall prevalence). Although potentially more cost-effective, a child-targeted subsidy must contain measures to reduce the possibility of leakage.

An assessment of the supply, programmatic use, and regulatory issues of single low-dose primaquine as a Plasmodium falciparum gametocytocide for sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Global ambitions to eliminate malaria are intensifying, underscoring a critical need for transmission blocking tools. In 2012, the WHO recommended the use of 0.25 mg/kg of single low-dose (SLD) primaquine to stop Plasmodium falciparum transmission. To ensure the availability of SLD primaquine to countries in need of this tool, more information on the supply, programmatic, and regulatory barriers to the rollout of SLD primaquine is required. METHODS: Challenges to the rollout of SLD primaquine in sub-Saharan Africa were established through semi-structured qualitative interviews with three primaquine manufacturers, 43 key informants from Ethiopia, Senegal, Swaziland, Zambia, and Tanzania, and 16 malaria research experts. RESULTS: Sanofi and Remedica are the only two sources of SRA-approved primaquine suitable for procurement by international donors. Neither manufacturer produces primaquine tablet strengths suitable for the transmission blocking indication. In-country key informants revealed that the WHO weight-based recommendation to use SLD primaquine is challenging to implement in actual field settings. Malaria programmes expressed safety concerns of SLD primaquine use in individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, as well as potential interactions between primaquine and co-morbidities, and drug-drug interactions with HIV and/or tuberculosis treatments. Regulatory processes are a major barrier to the rollout of SLD primaquine, requiring multiple steps at both the country and global level. Despite these barriers, demand for SLD primaquine is growing, and malaria researchers are interested in primaquine deployment through mass screen and treat and/or mass drug administration campaigns. CONCLUSION: Demand for primaquine as a transmission blocking agent is growing rapidly yet multiple barriers to SLD primaquine use exist. Research is needed to define the therapeutic dose range, which will guide dosing regimens in the field, inform the development of new, lower strength primaquine tablets and/or formulation(s), and allay programmatic safety concerns in individuals with G6PD deficiency. Potential interactions between primaquine and co-morbidities and treatments should be explored. To minimize regulatory delays, countries need to prepare for product registration at an early stage, WHO prequalification for suitable primaquine tablet strengths and/or new formulations should be sought, and in the meanwhile only Stringent Regulatory Authority (SRA)-approved primaquine should be used.

Price subsidies increase the use of private sector ACTs: evidence from a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Although artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) are the recommended first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in most endemic countries, they have been prohibitively expensive in the retail sector where many suspected malaria cases purchase treatment. ACT subsidies seek to stimulate consumer demand for the drugs over cheaper but often ineffective alternatives by reducing their prices. Recent evidence from eight regions implementing such subsidies suggests that they are generally successful in improving availability of the drugs and decreasing their retail prices, but it remains unclear whether these outcomes translate to improved use by patients with suspected malaria. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify reports of experimental or programmatic ACT subsidies to assess the impact of subsidies on consumer use. Relationships between price, use and potential confounding factors were examined using logistic and repeated measures binomial regression models, and approximate magnitudes of associations were assessed with linear regression. In total, 40 studies, 14 peer-reviewed and 26 non-peer-reviewed, were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. The reviewed studies found a substantial increase in private sector ACT use following the introduction of a subsidy. Overall, each $1 decrease in price was linked to a 24 percentage point increase in the fraction of suspected malaria cases purchasing ACTs (R(2) = 0.302). No significant differences were evident in this relationship when comparing the poorest and richest groups, rural vs urban populations or children vs adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that ACT price reductions can increase their use for suspected malaria, even within poorer, more remote populations that may be most at risk of malaria mortality. Whether a subsidy is appropriate will depend upon local context, including treatment-seeking behaviours and malaria prevalence. This review provides an initial foundation for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions regarding ACT price reductions to increase use of potentially life-saving drugs.

Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes.

BACKGROUND: Considerable declines in malaria have accompanied increased funding for control since the year 2000, but historical failures to maintain gains against the disease underscore the fragility of these successes. Although malaria transmission can be suppressed by effective control measures, in the absence of active intervention malaria will return to an intrinsic equilibrium determined by factors related to ecology, efficiency of mosquito vectors, and socioeconomic characteristics. Understanding where and why resurgence has occurred historically can help current and future malaria control programmes avoid the mistakes of the past. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify historical malaria resurgence events. All suggested causes of these events were categorized according to whether they were related to weakened malaria control programmes, increased potential for malaria transmission, or technical obstacles like resistance. RESULTS: The review identified 75 resurgence events in 61 countries, occurring from the 1930s through the 2000s. Almost all resurgence events (68/75 = 91%) were attributed at least in part to the weakening of malaria control programmes for a variety of reasons, of which resource constraints were the most common (39/68 = 57%). Over half of the events (44/75 = 59%) were attributed in part to increases in the intrinsic potential for malaria transmission, while only 24/75 (32%) were attributed to vector or drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Given that most malaria resurgences have been linked to weakening of control programmes, there is an urgent need to develop practical solutions to the financial and operational threats to effectively sustaining today's successful malaria control programmes.

Preventing the reintroduction of malaria in Mauritius: a programmatic and financial assessment.

Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling.On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year.The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking on elimination should quantify and plan for potentially similar POR operations and costs.

A framework for assessing the feasibility of malaria elimination.

The recent scale-up of malaria interventions, the ensuing reductions in the malaria burden, and reinvigorated discussions about global eradication have led many countries to consider malaria elimination as an alternative to maintaining control measures indefinitely. Evidence-based guidance to help countries weigh their options is thus urgently needed. A quantitative feasibility assessment that balances the epidemiological situation in a region, the strength of the public health system, the resource constraints, and the status of malaria control in neighboring areas can serve as the basis for robust, long-term strategic planning. Such a malaria elimination feasibility assessment was recently prepared for the Minister of Health in Zanzibar. Based on the Zanzibar experience, a framework is proposed along three axes that assess the technical requirements to achieve and maintain elimination, the operational capacity of the malaria programme and the public health system to meet those requirements, and the feasibility of funding the necessary programmes over time. Key quantitative and qualitative metrics related to each component of the assessment are described here along with the process of collecting data and interpreting the results. Although further field testing, validation, and methodological improvements will be required to ensure applicability in different epidemiological settings, the result is a flexible, rational methodology for weighing different strategic options that can be applied in a variety of contexts to establish data-driven strategic plans.

Costs and financial feasibility of malaria elimination.

The marginal costs and benefits of converting malaria programmes from a control to an elimination goal are central to strategic decisions, but empirical evidence is scarce. We present a conceptual framework to assess the economics of elimination and analyse a central component of that framework-potential short-term to medium-term financial savings. After a review that showed a dearth of existing evidence, the net present value of elimination in five sites was calculated and compared with effective control. The probability that elimination would be cost-saving over 50 years ranged from 0% to 42%, with only one site achieving cost-savings in the base case. These findings show that financial savings should not be a primary rationale for elimination, but that elimination might still be a worthy investment if total benefits are sufficient to outweigh marginal costs. Robust research into these elimination benefits is urgently needed.

A pharmacy too far? Equity and spatial distribution of outcomes in the delivery of subsidized artemisinin-based combination therapies through private drug shops.

BACKGROUND: Millions of individuals with malaria-like fevers purchase drugs from private retailers, but artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), the only effective treatment in regions with high levels of resistance to older drugs, are rarely obtained through these outlets due to their relatively high cost. To encourage scale up of ACTs, the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria is being launched to subsidize their price. The Government of Tanzania and the Clinton Foundation piloted this subsidized distribution model in two Tanzanian districts to examine concerns about whether the intervention will successfully reach poor, rural communities. METHODS: Stocking of ACTs and other antimalarial drugs in all retail shops was observed at baseline and in four subsequent surveys over 15 months. Exit interviews were conducted with antimalarial drug customers during each survey period. All shops and facilities were georeferenced, and variables related to population density and proximity to distribution hubs, roads, and other facilities were calculated. To understand the equity of impact, shops stocking ACTs and consumers buying them were compared to those that did not, according to geographic and socioeconomic variables. Patterning in ACT stocking and sales was evaluated against that of other common antimalarials to identify factors that may have impacted access. Qualitative data were used to assess motivations underlying stocking, distribution, and buying disparities. RESULTS: Results indicated that although total ACT purchases rose from negligible levels to nearly half of total antimalarial sales over the course of the pilot, considerable geographic variation in stocking and sales persisted and was related to a variety of socio-spatial factors; ACTs were stocked more often in shops located closer to district towns (p<0.01) and major roads (p<0.01) and frequented by individuals of higher socioeconomic status (p<0.01). However, other antimalarial drugs displayed similar patterning, indicating the existence of underlying disparities in access to antimalarial drugs in general in these districts. CONCLUSIONS: As this subsidy model is scaled up across multiple countries, these results confirm the potential for increased ACT usage but suggest that additional efforts to increase access in remote areas will be needed for the scale-up to have equitable impact. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN39125414.

Piloting the global subsidy: the impact of subsidized artemisinin-based combination therapies distributed through private drug shops in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: WHO estimates that only 3% of fever patients use recommended artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), partly reflecting their high prices in the retail sector from where many patients seek treatment. To overcome this challenge, a global ACT subsidy has been proposed. We tested this proposal through a pilot program in rural Tanzania. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three districts were assigned to serve either as a control or to receive the subsidy plus a package of supporting interventions. From October 2007, ACTs were sold at a 90% subsidy through the normal private supply chain to intervention district drug shops. Data were collected at baseline and during intervention using interviews with drug shop customers, retail audits, mystery shoppers, and audits of public and NGO facilities. The proportion of consumers in the intervention districts purchasing ACTs rose from 1% at baseline to 44.2% one year later (p<0.001), and was significantly higher among consumers purchasing for children under 5 than for adults (p = 0.005). No change in ACT usage was observed in the control district. Consumers paid a mean price of $0.58 for ACTs, which did not differ significantly from the price paid for sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, the most common alternative. Drug shops in population centers were significantly more likely to stock ACTs than those in more remote areas (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A subsidy introduced at the top of the private sector supply chain can significantly increase usage of ACTs and reduce their retail price to the level of common monotherapies. Additional interventions may be needed to ensure access to ACTs in remote areas and for poorer individuals who appear to seek treatment at drug shops less frequently. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN39125414.

Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies.

BACKGROUND: An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. METHODS: Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. RESULTS: Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. CONCLUSION: This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.