Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Social determinants of ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection: UK Biobank SARS-CoV-2 Serology Study.

BACKGROUND: The social determinants of ethnic disparities in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic in the UK remain unclear. METHODS: In May 2020, a total of 20 195 adults were recruited from the general population into the UK Biobank SARS-CoV-2 Serology Study. Between mid-May and mid-November 2020, participants provided monthly blood samples. At the end of the study, participants completed a questionnaire on social factors during different periods of the pandemic. Logistic regression yielded ORs for the association between ethnicity and SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies (indicating prior infection) using blood samples collected in July 2020, immediately after the first wave. RESULTS: After exclusions, 14 571 participants (mean age 56; 58% women) returned a blood sample in July, of whom 997 (7%) had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seropositivity was strongly related to ethnicity: compared with those of White ethnicity, ORs (adjusted for age and sex) for Black, South Asian, Chinese, Mixed and Other ethnic groups were 2.66 (95% CI 1.94-3.60), 1.66 (1.15-2.34), 0.99 (0.42-1.99), 1.42 (1.03-1.91) and 1.79 (1.27-2.47), respectively. Additional adjustment for social factors reduced the overall likelihood ratio statistics for ethnicity by two-thirds (67%; mostly from occupational factors and UK region of residence); more precise measurement of social factors may have further reduced the association. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies social factors that are likely to account for much of the ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave in the UK, and highlights the particular relevance of occupation and residential region in the pathway between ethnicity and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Educational and social inequalities and cause-specific mortality in Mexico City: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Social inequalities in adult mortality have been reported across diverse populations, but there is no large-scale prospective evidence from Mexico. We aimed to quantify social, including educational, inequalities in mortality among adults in Mexico City. METHODS: The Mexico City Prospective Study recruited 150 000 adults aged 35 years and older from two districts of Mexico City between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed up until Jan 1, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression analysis yielded rate ratios (RRs) for death at ages 35-74 years associated with education and examined, in exploratory analyses, the mediating effects of lifestyle and related risk factors. FINDINGS: Among 143 478 participants aged 35-74 years, there was a strong inverse association of education with premature death. Compared with participants with tertiary education, after adjustment for age and sex, those with no education had about twice the mortality rate (RR 1·84; 95% CI 1·71-1·98), equivalent to approximately 6 years lower life expectancy, with an RR of 1·78 (1·67-1·90) among participants with incomplete primary, 1·62 (1·53-1·72) with complete primary, and 1·34 (1·25-1·42) with secondary education. Education was most strongly associated with death from renal disease and acute diabetic crises (RR 3·65; 95% CI 3·05-4·38 for no education vs tertiary education) and from infectious diseases (2·67; 2·00-3·56), but there was an apparent higher rate of death from all specific causes studied with lower education, with the exception of cancer for which there was little association. Lifestyle factors (ie, smoking, alcohol drinking, and leisure time physical activity) and related physiological correlates (ie, adiposity, diabetes, and blood pressure) accounted for about four-fifths of the association of education with premature mortality. INTERPRETATION: In this Mexican population there were marked educational inequalities in premature adult mortality, which appeared to largely be accounted for by lifestyle and related risk factors. Effective interventions to reduce these risk factors could reduce inequalities and have a major impact on premature mortality. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and the UK Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit.

UK biobank: Enhanced assessment of the epidemiology and long-term impact of coronavirus disease-2019.

UK Biobank is an intensively characterised prospective cohort of 500,000 adults aged 40-69 years when recruited between 2006 and 2010. The study was established to enable researchers worldwide to undertake health-related research in the public interest. The existence of such a large, detailed prospective cohort with a high degree of participant engagement enabled its rapid repurposing for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) research. In response to the pandemic, the frequency of updates on hospitalisations and deaths among participants was immediately increased, and new data linkages were established to national severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and primary care health records to facilitate research into the determinants of severe COVID-19. UK Biobank also instigated several sub-studies on COVID-19. In 2020, monthly blood samples were collected from approximately 20,000 individuals to investigate the distribution and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to assess the persistence of antibodies following infection with another blood sample collected after 12 months. UK Biobank also performed repeat imaging of approximately 2,000 participants (half of whom had evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and half did not) to investigate the impact of the virus on changes in measures of internal organ structure and function. In addition, approximately 200,000 UK Biobank participants took part in a self-test SARS-CoV-2 antibody sub-study (between February and November 2021) to collect objective data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. These studies are enabling unique research into the genetic, lifestyle and environmental determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19, as well as their long-term health effects. UK Biobank's contribution to the national and international response to the pandemic represents a case study for its broader value, now and in the future, to precision medicine research.

Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is estimated to account for more than 1 million annual deaths in China, and the epidemic continues to increase in men. Large nationwide prospective studies linked to different health records can help to periodically assess disease burden attributed to smoking. We aimed to examine associations of smoking with incidence of and mortality from an extensive range of diseases in China. METHODS: We analysed data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, which recruited 512 726 adults aged 30-79 years, of whom 210 201 were men and 302 525 were women. Participants who had no major disabilities were identified through local residential records in 100-150 administrative units, which were randomly selected by use of multistage cluster sampling, from each of the ten diverse study areas of China. They were invited and recruited between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Upon study entry, trained health workers administered a questionnaire assessing detailed smoking behaviours and other key characteristics (eg, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and medical history). Participants were followed up via electronic record linkages to death and disease registries and health insurance databases, from baseline to Jan 1, 2018. During a median 11-year follow-up (IQR 10-12), 285 542 (55·7%) participants were ever hospitalised, 48 869 (9·5%) died, and 5252 (1·0%) were lost to follow-up during the age-at-risk of 35-84 years. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HRs) associating smoking with disease incidence and mortality, adjusting for multiple testing. FINDINGS: At baseline, 74·3% of men and 3·2% of women (overall 32·4%) ever smoked regularly. During follow-up, 1 137 603 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10)-coded incident events occurred, involving 476 distinct conditions and 85 causes of death, each with at least 100 cases. Compared with never-regular smokers, ever-regular smokers had significantly higher risks for nine of 18 ICD-10 chapters examined at age-at-risk of 35-84 years. For individual conditions, smokers had significantly higher risks of 56 diseases (50 for men and 24 for women) and 22 causes of death (17 for men and nine for women). Among men, ever-regular smokers had an HR of 1·09 (95% CI 1·08-1·11) for any disease incidence when compared with never-regular smokers, and significantly more episodes and longer duration of hospitalisation, particularly those due to cancer and respiratory diseases. For overall mortality, the HRs were greater in men from urban areas than in men from rural areas (1·50 [1·42-1·58] vs 1·25 [1·20-1·30]). Among men from urban areas who began smoking at younger than 18 years, the HRs were 2·06 (1·89-2·24) for overall mortality and 1·32 (1·27-1·37) for any disease incidence. In this population, 19·6% of male (24·3% of men residing in urban settings and 16·2% of men residing in rural settings) and 2·8% of female deaths were attributed to ever-regular smoking. INTERPRETATION: Among Chinese adults, smoking was associated with higher risks of morbidity and mortality from a wide range of diseases. Among men, the future smoking-attributed disease burden will increase further, highlighting a pressing need for reducing consumption through widespread cessation and uptake prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on cancer care but there is little direct evidence to quantify any effect. This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England. METHODS: Data were extracted from four population-based datasets spanning NHS England (the National Cancer Cancer Waiting Time Monitoring, Monthly Diagnostic, Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care and the National Radiotherapy datasets) for all referrals, colonoscopies, surgical procedures, and courses of rectal radiotherapy from Jan 1, 2019, to Oct 31, 2020, related to colorectal cancer in England. Differences in patterns of care were investigated between 2019 and 2020. Percentage reductions in monthly numbers and proportions were calculated. FINDINGS: As compared to the monthly average in 2019, in April, 2020, there was a 63% (95% CI 53-71) reduction (from 36 274 to 13 440) in the monthly number of 2-week referrals for suspected cancer and a 92% (95% CI 89-95) reduction in the number of colonoscopies (from 46 441 to 3484). Numbers had just recovered by October, 2020. This resulted in a 22% (95% CI 8-34) relative reduction in the number of cases referred for treatment (from a monthly average of 2781 in 2019 to 2158 referrals in April, 2020). By October, 2020, the monthly rate had returned to 2019 levels but did not exceed it, suggesting that, from April to October, 2020, over 3500 fewer people had been diagnosed and treated for colorectal cancer in England than would have been expected. There was also a 31% (95% CI 19-42) relative reduction in the numbers receiving surgery in April, 2020, and a lower proportion of laparoscopic and a greater proportion of stoma-forming procedures, relative to the monthly average in 2019. By October, 2020, laparoscopic surgery and stoma rates were similar to 2019 levels. For rectal cancer, there was a 44% (95% CI 17-76) relative increase in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in April, 2020, relative to the monthly average in 2019, due to greater use of short-course regimens. Although in June, 2020, there was a drop in the use of short-course regimens, rates remained above 2019 levels until October, 2020. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sustained reduction in the number of people referred, diagnosed, and treated for colorectal cancer. By October, 2020, achievement of care pathway targets had returned to 2019 levels, albeit with smaller volumes of patients and with modifications to usual practice. As pressure grows in the NHS due to the second wave of COVID-19, urgent action is needed to address the growing burden of undetected and untreated colorectal cancer in England. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, NHS Digital, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Assessment of the Role of Carotid Atherosclerosis in the Association Between Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Ischemic Stroke Subtypes.

Importance: A better understanding of the role of atherosclerosis in the development of ischemic stroke subtypes could help to improve strategies for prevention of stroke worldwide. Objective: To assess the role of carotid atherosclerosis in the association between major cardiovascular risk factors and ischemic stroke subtypes. Design, Setting, and Participants: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study was conducted in the general population of 5 urban and 5 rural areas in China, with a baseline survey obtained between June 2004 and July 2008. A random sample of 23 973 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease at enrollment who had carotid artery ultrasonographic measurements recorded at a resurvey from September 2013 to June 2014 were included. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2016, to April 10, 2019. Exposures: Major cardiovascular risk factors (ie, blood pressure [BP], blood lipid levels, smoking, and diabetes). Main Outcomes and Measures: Carotid ultrasonographic measures of plaque burden (derived from number and maximum size of carotid artery plaques at resurvey) and first ischemic stroke during follow-up (n = 952), with subtyping (data release, August 2018) as lacunar (n = 263), probable large artery (n = 193), probable cardioembolic (n = 66), or unconfirmed (n = 430). Associations between cardiovascular risk factors, carotid plaque burden, and ischemic stroke subtypes were adjusted for age, sex, and geographic area. Results: The 23 973 participants in the study had a mean (SD) age of 50.6 (10.0) years, and 14 833 (61.9%) were women. Systolic BP had a stronger association (odds ratio [OR] per SD, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.42-1.61) than plaque burden (OR per SD, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.26-1.44) with ischemic stroke, and the associations of systolic BP with each subtype of ischemic stroke were modestly attenuated by adjustment for plaque burden. After adjustment for BP, plaque burden had a stronger association with probable large artery stroke (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.63) than with lacunar stroke (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.10-1.43) but was not associated with probable cardioembolic stroke (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.83-1.36). Conclusions and Relevance: Although BP was an important risk factor for all ischemic stroke subtypes, carotid atherosclerosis was an important risk factor only for large artery and lacunar strokes, suggesting that drug treatments targeting atherosclerosis may reduce the risk of stroke subtypes to different extents.

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease.

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.

Assessment of Vascular Event Prevention and Cognitive Function Among Older Adults With Preexisting Vascular Disease or Diabetes: A Secondary Analysis of 3 Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Acquisition of reliable randomized clinical trial evidence of the effects of cardiovascular interventions on cognitive decline is a priority. Objectives: To estimate the association of cognitive aging with the avoidance of vascular events in cardiovascular intervention trials and understand whether reports of nonsignificant results exclude worthwhile benefit. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of 3 randomized clinical trials in participants with preexisting occlusive vascular disease or diabetes included survivors to final in-trial follow-up in the Heart Protection Study (HPS), Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and Homocysteine (SEARCH), and Treatment of HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trials of lipid modification for prevention of cardiovascular events. Data were collected from February 1994 through January 2013 and analyzed from January 2015 through December 2018. Exposures: Incident vascular events and diabetes and statin therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cognitive function was assessed at the end of a mean (SD) of 4.9 (1.5) years of follow-up using a 14-item verbal test. Associations of the incidence of vascular events and new-onset diabetes during the trials, with cognitive function at final in-trial follow-up were estimated and expressed as years of cognitive aging (using the association of the score with age >60 years). The benefit on cognitive aging mediated through the effects of lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on events was estimated by applying these findings to nonfatal event differences observed with statin therapy in the HPS trial. Results: Among 45 029 participants undergoing cognitive assessment, mean (SD) age was 67.9 (8.0) years; 80.7% were men. Incident stroke (n = 1197) was associated with 7.1 (95% CI, 5.7-8.5) years of cognitive aging; incident transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and new-onset diabetes were associated with 1 to 2 years of cognitive aging. In HPS, randomization to statin therapy for 5 years resulted in 2.0% of survivors avoiding a nonfatal stroke or transient ischemic attack and 2.4% avoiding a nonfatal cardiac event, which yielded an expected reduction in cognitive aging of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.19) years. With 15 926 participants undergoing cognitive assessment, HPS had 80% power to detect a 1-year (ie, 20% during the 5 years) difference in cognitive aging. Conclusions and Relevance: The expected cognitive benefits of the effects of preventive therapies on cardiovascular events during even the largest randomized clinical trials may have been too small to be detectable. Hence, nonsignificant findings may not provide good evidence of a lack of worthwhile benefit on cognitive function with prolonged use of such therapies. Trial Registration: isrctn.com and ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: ISRCTN48489393, ISRCTN74348595, and NCT00461630.

Protocol and quality assurance for carotid imaging in 100,000 participants of UK Biobank: development and assessment.

Background Ultrasound imaging is able to quantify carotid arterial wall structure for the assessment of cerebral and cardiovascular disease risks. We describe a protocol and quality assurance process to enable carotid imaging at large scale that has been developed for the UK Biobank Imaging Enhancement Study of 100,000 individuals. Design An imaging protocol was developed to allow measurement of carotid intima-media thickness from the far wall of both common carotid arteries. Six quality assurance criteria were defined and a web-based interface (Intelligent Ultrasound) was developed to facilitate rapid assessment of images against each criterion. Results and conclusions Excellent inter and intra-observer agreements were obtained for image quality evaluations on a test dataset from 100 individuals. The image quality criteria then were applied in the UK Biobank Imaging Enhancement Study. Data from 2560 participants were evaluated. Feedback of results to the imaging team led to improvement in quality assurance, with quality assurance failures falling from 16.2% in the first two-month period examined to 6.4% in the last. Eighty per cent had all carotid intima-media thickness images graded as of acceptable quality, with at least one image acceptable for 98% of participants. Carotid intima-media thickness measures showed expected associations with increasing age and gender. Carotid imaging can be performed consistently, with semi-automated quality assurance of all scans, in a limited timeframe within a large scale multimodality imaging assessment. Routine feedback of quality control metrics to operators can improve the quality of the data collection.

Risks and Population Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Associated with Diabetes in China: A Prospective Study of 0.5 Million Adults.

BACKGROUND: In China, diabetes prevalence is rising rapidly, but little is known about the associated risks and population burden of cardiovascular diseases. We assess associations of diabetes with major cardiovascular diseases and the relevance of diabetes duration and other modifiable risk factors to these associations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A nationwide prospective study recruited 512,891 men and women aged 30-79 y between 25 June 2004 and 15 July 2008 from ten diverse localities across China. During ~7 y of follow-up, 7,353 cardiovascular deaths and 25,451 non-fatal major cardiovascular events were recorded among 488,760 participants without prior cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing disease risks in individuals with diabetes to those without. Overall, 5.4% (n = 26,335) of participants had self-reported (2.7%) or screen-detected (2.7%) diabetes. Individuals with self-reported diabetes had an adjusted HR of 2.07 (95% CI 1.90-2.26) for cardiovascular mortality. There were significant excess risks of major coronary event (2.44, 95% CI 2.18-2.73), ischaemic stroke (1.68, 95% CI 1.60-1.77), and intracerebral haemorrhage (1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.44). Screen-detected diabetes was also associated with significant, though more modest, excess cardiovascular risks, with corresponding HRs of 1.66 (95% CI 1.51-1.83), 1.62 (95% CI 1.40-1.86), 1.48 (95% CI 1.40-1.57), and 1.17 (95% CI 1.01-1.36), respectively. Misclassification of screen-detected diabetes may have caused these risk estimates to be underestimated, whilst lack of data on lipids may have resulted in residual confounding of diabetes-associated cardiovascular disease risks. Among individuals with diabetes, cardiovascular risk increased progressively with duration of diabetes and number of other presenting modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. Assuming a causal association, diabetes now accounts for ~0.5 million (489,676, 95% CI 335,777-681,202) cardiovascular deaths annually in China. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, diabetes is associated with significantly increased risks of major cardiovascular diseases. The increasing prevalence and younger age of onset of diabetes foreshadow greater diabetes-attributable disease burden in China.

Effects of Vascular and Nonvascular Adverse Events and of Extended-Release Niacin With Laropiprant on Health and Healthcare Costs.

BACKGROUND: Extended-release niacin with laropiprant did not significantly reduce the risk of major vascular events and increased the risk of serious adverse events in Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE), but its net effects on health and healthcare costs are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: 25 673 participants aged 50 to 80 years with previous cardiovascular disease were randomized to 2 g of extended-release niacin with 40 mg of laropiprant daily versus matching placebo, in addition to effective statin-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering treatment. The net effects of niacin-laropiprant on quality-adjusted life years and hospital care costs (2012 UK £; converted into US $ using purchasing power parity index) during 4 years in HPS2-THRIVE were evaluated using estimates of the impact of serious adverse events on health-related quality of life and hospital care costs. During the study, participants assigned niacin-laropiprant experienced marginally but not statistically significantly lower survival (0.012 fewer years [standard error (SE) 0.007]), fewer quality-adjusted life years (0.023 [SE 0.007] fewer using UK EQ-5D scores; 0.020 [SE 0.006] fewer using US EQ-5D scores) and accrued greater hospital costs (UK £101 [SE £37]; US $145 [SE $53]). Stroke, heart failure, musculoskeletal events, gastrointestinal events, and infections were associated with significant decreases in health-related quality of life in both the year of the event and in subsequent years. All serious vascular and nonvascular events were associated with substantial increases in hospital care costs. CONCLUSIONS: In HPS2-THRIVE, the addition of extended-release niacin-laropiprant to statin-based therapy reduced quality of life-adjusted survival and increased hospital costs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00461630.

Cost-effectiveness of Simvastatin plus Ezetimibe for Cardiovascular Prevention in CKD: Results of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP).

BACKGROUND: Simvastatin, 20mg, plus ezetimibe, 10mg, daily (simvastatin plus ezetimibe) reduced major atherosclerotic events in patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), but its cost-effectiveness is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in SHARP, a randomized controlled trial. SETTING & POPULATION: 9,270 patients with CKD randomly assigned to simvastatin plus ezetimibe versus placebo; participants in categories by 5-year cardiovascular risk (low, <10%; medium, 10%-<20%; or high, ≥20%) and CKD stage (3, 4, 5 not on dialysis, or on dialysis therapy). MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMELINE: Assessment during SHARP follow-up from the UK perspective; long-term projections. INTERVENTION: Simvastatin plus ezetimibe (2015 UK £1.19 per day) during 4.9 years' median follow-up in SHARP; scenario analyses with high-intensity statin regimens (2015 UK £0.05-£1.06 per day). OUTCOMES: Additional health care costs per major atherosclerotic event avoided and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In SHARP, the proportional reductions per 1mmol/L of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol reduction with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in all major atherosclerotic events of 20% (95% CI, 6%-32%) and in the costs of vascular hospital episodes of 17% (95% CI, 4%-28%) were similar across participant categories by cardiovascular risk and CKD stage. The 5-year reduction in major atherosclerotic events per 1,000 participants ranged from 10 in low-risk to 58 in high-risk patients and from 28 in CKD stage 3 to 36 in patients on dialysis therapy. The net cost per major atherosclerotic event avoided with simvastatin plus ezetimibe compared to no LDL-lowering regimen ranged from £157,060 in patients at low risk to £15,230 in those at high risk (£30,500-£39,600 per QALY); and from £47,280 in CKD stage 3 to £28,180 in patients on dialysis therapy (£13,000-£43,300 per QALY). In scenario analyses, generic high-intensity statin regimens were estimated to yield similar benefits at substantially lower cost. LIMITATIONS: High-intensity statin-alone regimens were not studied in SHARP. CONCLUSIONS: Simvastatin plus ezetimibe prevented atherosclerotic events in SHARP, but other less costly statin regimens are likely to be more cost-effective for reducing cardiovascular risk in CKD.

Alcohol consumption in 0.5 million people from 10 diverse regions of China: prevalence, patterns and socio-demographic and health-related correlates.

BACKGROUND: Drinking alcohol has a long tradition in Chinese culture. However, data on the prevalence and patterns of alcohol consumption in China, and its main correlates, are limited. METHODS: During 2004-08 the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,891 men and women aged 30-79 years from 10 urban and rural areas of China. Detailed information on alcohol consumption was collected using a standardized questionnaire, and related to socio-demographic, physical and behavioural characteristics in men and women separately. RESULTS: Overall, 76% of men and 36% of women reported drinking some alcohol during the past 12 months, with 33% of men and 2% of women drinking at least weekly; the prevalence of weekly drinking in men varied from 7% to 51% across the 10 study areas. Mean consumption was 286 g/week and was higher in those with less education. Most weekly drinkers habitually drank spirits, although this varied by area, and beer consumption was highest among younger drinkers; 37% of male weekly drinkers (12% of all men) reported weekly heavy drinking episodes, with the prevalence highest in younger men. Drinking alcohol was positively correlated with regular smoking, blood pressure and heart rate. Among male weekly drinkers, each 20 g/day alcohol consumed was associated with 2 mmHg higher systolic blood pressure. Potential indicators of problem drinking were reported by 24% of male weekly drinkers. CONCLUSION: The prevalence and patterns of drinking in China differ greatly by age, sex and geographical region. Alcohol consumption is associated with a number of unfavourable health behaviours and characteristics.

The MRC spine stabilization trial: surgical methods, outcomes, costs, and complications of surgical stabilization.

STUDY DESIGN: A review of the surgical costs and results in a group of patients randomly allocated to surgery as part of a large prospective randomized trial of patients with chronic back pain. OBJECTIVE: To report the observational data from the surgical arm of a randomized trial comparing surgery with intensive rehabilitation for chronic low back pain. Clinical and economic data are reported. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Surgery for chronic low back pain is a well established but unproven intervention. The most cost-effective technique for spinal stabilization is still not established. METHODS: One hundred six patients with chronic low back pain were randomized to the surgical group of a randomized trial comparing spinal fusion of the lumbar with a 3 week intensive rehabilitation program. The primary outcomes were the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and the Shuttle Walking Test measured at baseline and 2 years postrandomization. Patients were stratified by preoperative diagnosis, smoking habit, and litigation. Complications were assessed and costs analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 176 surgical patients, 56 underwent postero-lateral fusion, 57 underwent interbody fusion, and 24 underwent flexible stabilization of the spine. The mean ODI for all patients in the surgical arm of the trial improved from a baseline of 46.5 (SD 14.6) to 34.2 (SD 21) at 2 years. Health care costs were higher ( 3109 pounds difference) for more complex procedures, and nearly 6 times as many early complications occurred with the more complex procedures. Smoking and unemployment were associated with worse results whereas litigation did not adversely affect the outcome. CONCLUSION: These observational changes in the ODI after surgery are similar to those reported from other studies of spinal fusion. More complex surgery is more expensive with more complications than postero-lateral fusion.

Sensible approaches for reducing clinical trial costs.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, annual funding for biomedical research has more than doubled while new molecular entity approvals have declined by one third. OBJECTIVE: To assess the value of practices commonly employed in the conduct of large-scale clinical trials, and to identify areas where costs could be reduced without compromising scientific validity. METHODS: In the qualitative phase of the study, an expert panel recommended potential modifications of mega-trial designs and operations in order to maximize their value (cost versus scientific benefit tradeoff). In the quantitative phase, a mega-trial economic model was used to assess the financial implications of these recommendations. Our initial chronic disease trial design included 20,000 patients randomized at 1000 sites. Each site was assigned 24 monitoring visits and a $10,000 per patient site payment. The case report form (CRF) was 60 pages long, and trial duration was assumed to be 48 months. RESULTS: The total costs of the initial trial design were $421 million ($US 2007). Following the expert panel's recommendations, we varied study duration, CRF length, number of sites, electronic data capture (EDC), and site management components to determine their individual and combined effects upon total trial costs. The use of EDC and modified site management practices were associated with significant reductions in total trial costs. When reductions in all five trial components were combined in a streamlined pharmaceutical industry design, a 59% reduction in total trial costs resulted. When we assumed an even more streamlined trial design than has typically been considered for regulatory submissions in the past, there was a 90% reduction in total trial costs. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that it is possible to reduce substantially the cost of large-scale clinical trials without compromising the scientific validity of their results. If implemented, our recommendations could free billions of dollars annually for additional clinical studies. Research in the setting of clinical trials should be conducted to refine these findings.