Diabetes Mellitus, Race, and Effects of Omega-3 Fatty Acids on Incidence of Heart Failure Hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: The primary aim was to evaluate whether prevalent type 2 diabetes (T2D) modifies the effects of omega-3 supplementation on heart failure (HF) hospitalization. The secondary aim was to examine if race modifies the effects of omega-3 supplements on HF risk. BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether race and T2D modify the effects of omega-3 supplementation on the incidence of HF. METHODS: In this ancillary study of the parent VITAL (Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial)-a completed randomized trial testing the efficacy of vitamin D and omega-3 fatty acids on cardiovascular diseases and cancer, we assessed the role of T2D and race on the effects of omega-3 supplements on the incidence of HF hospitalization (adjudicated by a review of medical records and supplemented with a query of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data). RESULTS: When omega-3 supplements were compared with placebo, the HR for first HF hospitalization was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.50-0.95) in participants with prevalent T2D and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.88-1.34) in those without T2D (P for interaction = 0.019). Furthermore, prevalent T2D modified the effects of omega-3 fatty acids on the incidence of recurrent HF hospitalization (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.41-0.69 in participants with prevalent T2D vs HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.89-1.28 in those without T2D; P interaction <0.0001). In our secondary analysis, omega-3 supplementation reduced recurrent HF hospitalization only in Black participants (P interaction race × omega-3 = 0.0497). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show beneficial effects of omega-3 fatty acid supplements on incidence of HF hospitalization in participants with T2D but not in those without T2D, and such benefit appeared to be stronger in Black participants with T2D. (Intervention With Vitamin D and Omega-3 Supplements and Incident Heart Failure; NCT02271230; Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial [VITAL]; NCT01169259 [parent study]).

Geographic Region, Racial/Ethnic Disparities, and Late-Life Depression: Results From a Large US Cohort of Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine associations between geographic region and late-life depression (LLD) severity, item-level symptom burden, and treatment; to evaluate whether racial/ethnic disparities in LLD, previously observed in the overall sample, vary by region. METHODS: We included 25,502 VITAL (Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial) participants and administered the Patient Health Questionnaire-8 for depressive symptoms; participants also reported medication and/or counseling care for depression. Multivariable regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Despite overall lower LLD severity and item-level symptom burden in the Midwest versus Northeast, higher LLD severity and item-level burden were observed among minorities, especially Black and Hispanic adults, compared to non-Hispanic whites in this region. Racial/ethnic disparities in item-level symptoms (e.g., anhedonia, sadness, psychomotor changes) varied by region. There were no significant differences in depression care by region; furthermore, regional variation was not observed in racial disparities in care: e.g., among those with clinician/physician-diagnosed depression, Blacks versus non-Hispanic whites had greater than 50% lower odds of treatment in all regions. CONCLUSION: LLD varied by geographic region. Furthermore, magnitudes of racial/ethnic disparities in LLD severity and item-level symptom burden, but not depression care, differed by region.

Telomere length and its relationships with lifestyle and behavioural factors: variations by sex and race/ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to healthy lifestyles/behaviours promotes healthy ageing. However, little is known about whether age, sex and/or race/ethnicity moderate associations of lifestyle/behavioural factors with relative telomere length (RTL), a potential biomarker of ageing. METHODS: We included 749 midlife to older non-Hispanic White (n = 254), Black (n = 248) and Hispanic (n = 247) US participants [mean (standard deviation) age = 69.3 (7.2) years; women: 50.5%]. We extracted genomic DNA from peripheral leucocytes. RTL was assayed using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Multivariable regression was used to examine associations between lifestyle/behavioural exposures (i.e. physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking and depression) with RTL. RESULTS: Increasing chronological age was associated with shorter RTL (P < 0.01). Higher physical activity was associated with longer RTL (P-trend = 0.03); daily versus never/rare alcohol consumption and 30+ versus <5 smoking pack-year were associated with shorter RTLs (P-trend = 0.02). Associations varied significantly by sex and race/ethnicity. The association between physical activity and longer RTL appeared strongest among non-Hispanic Whites (P-interaction = 0.01). Compared to men, women had stronger associations between heavy smoking and shorter RTLs (P-interaction = 0.03). Light/moderate alcohol consumption (monthly/weekly) was associated with longer RTL among non-Hispanic Whites, while daily consumption was related to shorter RTLs among Blacks and Hispanics (P-interactions < 0.01). Associations of daily alcohol and heavy smoking with shorter RTLs were particularly apparent among Black women. CONCLUSION: We observed novel variations by sex and race/ethnicity in associations between lifestyle/behavioural factors and RTL. Further work is needed to replicate these findings and to address potential public health implications for modifying strategies by sex or across racial/ethnic groups to optimise lifestyles/behaviours for healthy ageing.

Assessment of Placebo Response in Objective and Subjective Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials.

Importance: Large placebo responses in randomized clinical trials may keep effective medication from reaching the market. Primary outcome measures of clinical trials have shifted from patient-reported to objective outcomes, partly because response to randomized placebo treatment is thought to be greater in subjective compared with objective outcomes. However, a direct comparison of placebo response in subjective and objective outcomes in the same patient population is missing. Objective: To assess whether subjective patient-reported (pain severity) and objective inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP] level and erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]) outcomes differ in placebo response. Design, Setting, and Participants: The placebo arms of 5 double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials were included in this cross-sectional study. These trials were conducted internationally for 24 weeks or longer between 2005 and 2009. All patients with rheumatoid arthritis randomized to placebo (N = 788) were included. Analysis of data from these trials was conducted from March 27 to December 31, 2019. Intervention: Placebo injection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The difference (with 95% CIs) from baseline at week 12 and week 24 on a 0- to 100-mm visual analog scale to evaluate the severity of pain, CRP level, and ESR. Results: Of the 788 patients included in the analysis, 644 were women (82%); mean (SD) age was 51 (13) years. There was a statistically significant decrease in patient-reported pain intensity (week 12: -14 mm; 95% CI, -12 to -16 mm and week 24: -20 mm; 95% CI, -16 to -22 mm). Similarly, significant decreases were noted in the CRP level (week 12: -0.51 mg/dL; 95% CI, -0.47 to -0.56 mg/dL and week 24: -1.16 mg/dL; 95% CI, -1.03 to -1.30 mg/dL) and ESR (week 12: -11 mm/h; 95% CI, -10 to 12 mm/h and week 24: -25 mm/h; 95% CI, -12 to -26 mm/h) (all P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that improvements in clinical outcomes among participants randomized to placebo were not limited to subjective outcomes. Even if these findings could largely demonstrate a regression to the mean, they should be considered for future trial design, as unexpected favorable placebo responses may result in a well-designed trial becoming underpowered to detect the treatment difference needed in clinical drug development.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Late-Life Depression Severity, Symptom Burden, and Care.

Importance: Knowledge gaps persist regarding racial and ethnic variation in late-life depression, including differences in specific depressive symptoms and disparities in care. Objective: To examine racial/ethnic differences in depression severity, symptom burden, and care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included 25 503 of 25 871 community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL), a randomized trial of cancer and cardiovascular disease prevention conducted from November 2011 to December 2017. Data analysis was conducted from June to September 2018. Exposure: Racial/ethnic group (ie, non-Hispanic white; black; Hispanic; Asian; and other, multiple, or unspecified race). Main Outcomes and Measures: Depressive symptoms, assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (PHQ-8); participant-reported diagnosis, medication, and/or counseling for depression. Differences across racial/ethnic groups were evaluated using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression to compare PHQ-8 scores and multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds of item-level symptom burden and odds of depression treatment among those with diagnosed depression. Results: There were 25 503 VITAL participants with adequate depression data (mean [SD] age, 67.1 [7.1] years) including 12 888 [50.5%] women, 17 828 [69.9%] non-Hispanic white participants, 5004 [19.6%] black participants, 1001 [3.9%] Hispanic participants, 377 [1.5%] Asian participants, and 1293 participants [5.1%] who were categorized in the other, multiple, or unspecified race group. After adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health confounders, black participants had a 10% higher severity level of PHQ-8 scores compared with non-Hispanic white participants (rate ratio [RR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17; P < .001); Hispanic participants had a 23% higher severity level of PHQ-8 scores compared with non-Hispanic white participants (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.38; P < .001); and participants in the other, multiple, or unspecified group had a 14% higher severity level of PHQ-8 scores compared with non-Hispanic white participants (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.25; P = .007). Compared with non-Hispanic white participants, participants belonging to minority groups had 1.5-fold to 2-fold significantly higher fully adjusted odds of anhedonia (among black participants: odds ratio [OR], 1.76; 95% CI, 1.47-2.11; among Hispanic participants: OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.43-2.69), sadness (among black participants: OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.07-1.60; among Hispanic participants: OR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.51-2.88), and psychomotor symptoms (among black participants: OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.31-2.39; among Hispanic participants: OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.28-3.50); multivariable-adjusted odds of sleep problems and guilt appeared higher among Hispanic vs non-Hispanic white participants (sleep: OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.52; guilt: 1.84; 95% CI, 1.31-2.59). Among those with clinically significant depressive symptoms (ie, PHQ-8 score ≥10) and/or those with diagnosed depression, black participants were 61% less likely to report any treatment (ie, medications and/or counseling) than non-Hispanic white participants after adjusting for confounders (adjusted OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.27-0.56). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, significant racial and ethnic differences in late-life depression severity, item-level symptom burden, and depression care were observed after adjustment for numerous confounders. These findings suggest a need for further examination of novel patient-level and clinician-level factors underlying these associations.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): Clinical and demographic characteristics associated with baseline and change with randomized vitamin D treatment.

BACKGROUND: The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL) is a completed randomized, placebo-controlled trial of vitamin D3 (2000 IU/day) and marine omega-3 (1 g/day) supplements in the primary prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. Here we examine baseline and change in 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and related biomarkers with randomized treatment and by clinical factors. METHODS: Baseline 25(OH)D was measured in 15,804 participants (mean age 68 years.; 50.8% women; 15.7% African Americans) and in 1660 1-year follow-up samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and chemiluminescence. Calcium and parathyroid hormone (iPTH) were measured by chemiluminescence and spectrophotometry respectively. RESULTS: Mean baseline total 25(OH)D (ng/mL ±â€¯SD) was 30.8 ±â€¯10.0 ng/mL, and correlated inversely with iPTH (r = -0.28), p < .001. After adjusting for clinical factors, 25(OH)D (ng/mL ±â€¯SE) was lower in men vs women (29.7 ±â€¯0.30 vs 31.4 ±â€¯0.30, p < .0001) and in African Americans vs whites (27.9 ±â€¯0.29 vs 32.5 ±â€¯0.22, p < .0001). It was also lower with increasing BMI, smoking, and latitude, and varied by season. Mean 1-year 25(OH)D increased by 11.9 ng/mL in the active group and decreased by 0.7 ng/mL in placebo. The largest increases were noted among individuals with low baseline and African Americans. Results were similar for chemiluminescent immunoassay. Mean calcium was unchanged, and iPTH decreased with treatment. CONCLUSION: In VITAL, baseline 25(OH)D varied by clinical subgroups, was lower in men and African Americans. Concentrations increased with vitamin D supplementation, with the greatest increases in those with lower baseline 25(OH)D. The seasonal trends in 25(OH)D, iPTH, and calcium may be relevant when interpreting 25(OH)D levels for clinical treatment decisions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: VITAL ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01169259.

Statistical methods for building better biomarkers of chronic kidney disease.

The last two decades have witnessed an explosion in research focused on the development and assessment of novel biomarkers for improved prognosis of diseases. As a result, best practice standards guiding biomarker research have undergone extensive development. Currently, there is great interest in the promise of biomarkers to enhance research efforts and clinical practice in the setting of chronic kidney disease, acute kidney injury, and glomerular disease. However, some have questioned whether biomarkers currently add value to the clinical practice of nephrology. The current state of the art pertaining to statistical analyses regarding the use of such measures is critical. In December 2014, the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases convened a meeting, "Toward Building Better Biomarker Statistical Methodology," with the goals of summarizing the current best practice recommendations and articulating new directions for methodological research. This report summarizes its conclusions and describes areas that need attention. Suggestions are made regarding metrics that should be commonly reported. We outline the methodological issues related to traditional metrics and considerations in prognostic modeling, including discrimination and case mix, calibration, validation, and cost-benefit analysis. We highlight the approach to improved risk communication and the value of graphical displays. Finally, we address some "new frontiers" in prognostic biomarker research, including the competing risk framework, the use of longitudinal biomarkers, and analyses in distributed research networks.

Assessment of dietary sodium intake using a food frequency questionnaire and 24-hour urinary sodium excretion: a systematic literature review.

Food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) are often used to assess dietary sodium intake, although 24-hour urinary excretion is the most accurate measure of intake. The authors conducted a systematic review to investigate whether FFQs are a reliable and valid way of measuring usual dietary sodium intake. Results from 18 studies are described in this review, including 16 validation studies. The methods of study design and analysis varied widely with respect to FFQ instrument, number of 24-hour urine collections collected per participant, methods used to assess completeness of urine collections, and statistical analysis. Overall, there was poor agreement between estimates from FFQ and 24-hour urine. The authors suggest a framework for validation and reporting based on a consensus statement (2004), and recommend that all FFQs used to estimate dietary sodium intake undergo validation against multiple 24-hour urine collections.

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Lifestyle-based prediction model for the prevention of CVD: the Healthy Heart Score.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice focuses on the primary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) through the modification and pharmacological treatment of elevated risk factors. Prediction models based on established risk factors are available for use in the primary prevention setting. However, the prevention of risk factor development through healthy lifestyle behaviors, or primordial prevention, is of paramount importance to achieve optimal population-wide CV health and minimize long-term CVD risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a lifestyle-based CVD prediction model among 61 025 women in the Nurses' Health Study and 34 478 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, who were free of chronic disease in 1986 and followed for ≤24 years. Lifestyle factors were assessed by questionnaires in 1986. In the derivation step, we used the Bayes Information Criterion to create parsimonious 20-year risk prediction models among a random two thirds of participants in each cohort separately. The scores were validated in the remaining one third of participants in each cohort. Over 24 years, there were 3775 cases of CVD in women and 3506 cases in men. The Healthy Heart Score included age, smoking, body mass index, exercise, alcohol, and a composite diet score. In the validation cohort, the risk score demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C-index, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71, 0.74 [women]; 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76, 0.79 [men]), fit, and calibration, particularly among individuals without baseline hypertension or hypercholesterolemia. CONCLUSIONS: The Healthy Heart Score accurately identifies individuals at elevated risk for CVD and may serve as an important clinical and public health screening tool for the primordial prevention of CVD.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of blood pressure screening in adolescents in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3 approaches to managing elevated blood pressure (BP) in adolescents in the United States: no intervention, "screen-and-treat," and population-wide strategies to lower the entire BP distribution. STUDY DESIGN: We used a simulation model to combine several data sources to project the lifetime costs and cardiovascular outcomes for a cohort of 15-year-old U.S. adolescents under different BP approaches and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained BP distributions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 and used childhood-to-adult longitudinal correlation analyses to simulate the tracking of BP. We then used the coronary heart disease policy model to estimate lifetime coronary heart disease events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). RESULTS: Among screen-and-treat strategies, finding and treating the adolescents at highest risk (eg, left ventricular hypertrophy) was most cost-effective ($18000/QALY [boys] and $47000/QALY [girls]). However, all screen-and-treat strategies were dominated by population-wide strategies such as salt reduction (cost-saving [boys] and $650/QALY [girls]) and increasing physical education ($11000/QALY [boys] and $35000/QALY [girls]). CONCLUSIONS: Routine adolescents BP screening is moderately effective, but population-based BP interventions with broader reach could potentially be less costly and more effective for early cardiovascular disease prevention and should be implemented in parallel.

Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction.

The c statistic, or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, achieved popularity in diagnostic testing, in which the test characteristics of sensitivity and specificity are relevant to discriminating diseased versus nondiseased patients. The c statistic, however, may not be optimal in assessing models that predict future risk or stratify individuals into risk categories. In this setting, calibration is as important to the accurate assessment of risk. For example, a biomarker with an odds ratio of 3 may have little effect on the c statistic, yet an increased level could shift estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk for an individual patient from 8% to 24%, which would lead to different treatment recommendations under current Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Accepted risk factors such as lipids, hypertension, and smoking have only marginal impact on the c statistic individually yet lead to more accurate reclassification of large proportions of patients into higher-risk or lower-risk categories. Perfectly calibrated models for complex disease can, in fact, only achieve values for the c statistic well below the theoretical maximum of 1. Use of the c statistic for model selection could thus naively eliminate established risk factors from cardiovascular risk prediction scores. As novel risk factors are discovered, sole reliance on the c statistic to evaluate their utility as risk predictors thus seems ill-advised.

Development and validation of improved algorithms for the assessment of global cardiovascular risk in women: the Reynolds Risk Score.

CONTEXT: Despite improved understanding of atherothrombosis, cardiovascular prediction algorithms for women have largely relied on traditional risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate cardiovascular risk algorithms for women based on a large panel of traditional and novel risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-five factors were assessed among 24 558 initially healthy US women 45 years or older who were followed up for a median of 10.2 years (through March 2004) for incident cardiovascular events (an adjudicated composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death). We used data among a random two thirds (derivation cohort, n = 16 400) to develop new risk algorithms that were then tested to compare observed and predicted outcomes in the remaining one third of women (validation cohort, n = 8158). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Minimization of the Bayes Information Criterion was used in the derivation cohort to develop the best-fitting parsimonious prediction models. In the validation cohort, we compared predicted vs actual 10-year cardiovascular event rates when the new algorithms were compared with models based on covariates included in the Adult Treatment Panel III risk score. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, a best-fitting model (model A) and a clinically simplified model (model B, the Reynolds Risk Score) had lower Bayes Information Criterion scores than models based on covariates used in Adult Treatment Panel III. In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination, and calibration were improved when either model A or B was used. For example, among participants without diabetes with estimated 10-year risks according to the Adult Treatment Panel III of 5% to less than 10% (n = 603) or 10% to less than 20% (n = 156), model A reclassified 379 (50%) into higher- or lower-risk categories that in each instance more accurately matched actual event rates. Similar effects were achieved for clinically simplified model B limited to age, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A(1c) if diabetic, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and parental history of myocardial infarction before age 60 years. Neither new algorithm provided substantive information about women at very low risk based on the published Adult Treatment Panel III score. CONCLUSION: We developed, validated, and demonstrated highly improved accuracy of 2 clinical algorithms for global cardiovascular risk prediction that reclassified 40% to 50% of women at intermediate risk into higher- or lower-risk categories.