Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Geographic barriers to establishing a successful hospital referral system in rural Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: The provision of emergency and hospital care has become an integral part of the global vision for universal health coverage. To strengthen secondary care systems, we need to accurately understand the time necessary for populations to reach a hospital. The goal of this study was to develop methods that accurately estimate referral and prehospital time for rural districts in low and middle-income countries. We used these estimates to assess how local geography can limit the impact of a strengthened referral programme in a rural district of Madagascar. METHODS: We developed a database containing: travel speed by foot and motorised vehicles in Ifanadiana district; a full mapping of all roads, footpaths and households; and remotely sensed data on terrain, land cover and climatic characteristics. We used this information to calibrate estimates of referral and prehospital time based on the shortest route algorithms and statistical models of local travel speed. We predict the impact on referral numbers of strategies aimed at reducing referral time for underserved populations via generalised linear mixed models. RESULTS: About 10% of the population lived less than 2 hours from the hospital, and more than half lived over 4 hours away, with variable access depending on climatic conditions. Only the four health centres located near the paved road had referral times to the hospital within 1 hour. Referral time remained the main barrier limiting the number of referrals despite health system strengthening efforts. The addition of two new referral centres is estimated to triple the population living within 2 hours from a centre with better emergency care capacity and nearly double the number of expected referrals. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates how adapting geographic accessibility modelling methods to local scales can occur through improving the precision of travel time estimates and pairing them with data on health facility use.

Geographic barriers to achieving universal health coverage: evidence from rural Madagascar.

Poor geographic access can persist even when affordable and well-functioning health systems are in place, limiting efforts for universal health coverage (UHC). It is unclear how to balance support for health facilities and community health workers in UHC national strategies. The goal of this study was to evaluate how a health system strengthening (HSS) intervention aimed towards UHC affected the geographic access to primary care in a rural district of Madagascar. For this, we collected the fokontany of residence (lowest administrative unit) from nearly 300 000 outpatient consultations occurring in facilities of Ifanadiana district in 2014-2017 and in the subset of community sites supported by the HSS intervention. Distance from patients to facilities was accurately estimated following a full mapping of the district's footpaths and residential areas. We modelled per capita utilization for each fokontany through interrupted time-series analyses with control groups, accounting for non-linear relationships with distance and travel time among other factors, and we predicted facility utilization across the district under a scenario with and without HSS. Finally, we compared geographic trends in primary care when combining utilization at health facilities and community sites. We find that facility-based interventions similar to those in UHC strategies achieved high utilization rates of 1-3 consultations per person year only among populations living in close proximity to facilities. We predict that scaling only facility-based HSS programmes would result in large gaps in access, with over 75% of the population unable to reach one consultation per person year. Community health delivery, available only for children under 5 years, provided major improvements in service utilization regardless of their distance from facilities, contributing to 90% of primary care consultations in remote populations. Our results reveal the geographic limits of current UHC strategies and highlight the need to invest on professionalized community health programmes with larger scopes of service.

District-level health system strengthening for universal health coverage: evidence from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Madagascar, 2014-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Despite renewed commitment to universal health coverage and health system strengthening (HSS) to improve access to primary care, there is insufficient evidence to guide their design and implementation. To address this, we conducted an impact evaluation of an ongoing HSS initiative in rural Madagascar, combining data from a longitudinal cohort and primary health centres. METHODS: We carried out a district representative household survey at the start of the HSS intervention in 2014 in over 1500 households in Ifanadiana district, and conducted follow-up surveys at 2 and 4 years. At each time point, we estimated maternal, newborn and child health coverage; economic and geographical inequalities in coverage; and child mortality rates; both in the HSS intervention and control catchments. We used logistic regression models to evaluate changes associated with exposure to the HSS intervention. We also estimated changes in health centre per capita utilisation during 2013 to 2018. RESULTS: Child mortality rates decreased faster in the HSS than in the control catchment. We observed significant improvements in care seeking for children under 5 years of age (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.44) and individuals of all ages (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.58), but no significant differences in maternal care coverage. Economic inequalities in most coverage indicators were reduced, while geographical inequalities worsened in nearly half of the indicators. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate improvements in care seeking and economic inequalities linked to the early stages of a HSS intervention in rural Madagascar. Additional improvements in this context of persistent geographical inequalities will require a stronger focus on community health.

Networks of Care in Rural Madagascar for Achieving Universal Health Coverage in Ifanadiana District.

Health care is most effective when a patient's basic primary care needs are met as close to home as possible, with advanced care accessible when needed. In Ifanadiana District, Madagascar, a collaboration between the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and PIVOT, a non-governmental organization (NGO), fosters Networks of Care (NOC) to support high-quality, patient-centered care. The district's health system has three levels of care: community, health center, district hospital; a regional hospital is available for tertiary care services. We explore the MoPH/PIVOT collaboration through a case study which focuses on noteworthy elements of the collaboration across the four NOC domains: (I) agreement and enabling environment, (II) operational standards, (III) quality, efficiency, and responsibility, (IV) learning and adaptation. Under Domain I, we describe formal agreements between the MoPH and PIVOT and the process for engaging communities in creating effective NOC. Domain II discusses patient referral across levels of the health system and improvements to facility readiness and service availability. Under Domain III the collaboration prioritizes communication and supervision to support clinical quality, and social support for patients. Domain IV focuses on evaluation, research, and the use of data to modify programs to better meet community needs. The case study, organized by the domains of the NOC framework, demonstrates that a collaboration between the MoPH and an NGO can create effective NOC in a remote district with limited accessibility and advance the country's agenda to achieve universal health coverage.

Early changes in intervention coverage and mortality rates following the implementation of an integrated health system intervention in Madagascar.

INTRODUCTION: The Sustainable Development Goals framed an unprecedented commitment to achieve global convergence in child and maternal mortality rates through 2030. To meet those targets, essential health services must be scaled via integration with strengthened health systems. This is especially urgent in Madagascar, the country with the lowest level of financing for health in the world. Here, we present an interim evaluation of the first 2 years of a district-level health system strengthening (HSS) initiative in rural Madagascar, using estimates of intervention coverage and mortality rates from a district-wide longitudinal cohort. METHODS: We carried out a district representative household survey at baseline of the HSS intervention in over 1500 households in Ifanadiana district. The first follow-up was after the first 2 years of the initiative. For each survey, we estimated maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) coverage, healthcare inequalities and child mortality rates both in the initial intervention catchment area and in the rest of the district. We evaluated changes between the two areas through difference-in-differences analyses. We estimated annual changes in health centre per capita utilisation from 2013 to 2016. RESULTS: The intervention was associated with 19.1% and 36.4% decreases in under-five and neonatal mortality, respectively, although these were not statistically significant. The composite coverage index (a summary measure of MNCH coverage) increased by 30.1%, with a notable 63% increase in deliveries in health facilities. Improvements in coverage were substantially larger in the HSS catchment area and led to an overall reduction in healthcare inequalities. Health centre utilisation rates in the catchment tripled for most types of care during the study period. CONCLUSION: At the earliest stages of an HSS intervention, the rapid improvements observed for Ifanadiana add to preliminary evidence supporting the untapped and poorly understood potential of integrated HSS interventions on population health.

In Madagascar, Use Of Health Care Services Increased When Fees Were Removed: Lessons For Universal Health Coverage.

Despite overwhelming burdens of disease, health care access in most developing countries is extremely low. As governments work toward achieving universal health coverage, evidence on appropriate interventions to expand access in rural populations is critical for informing policies. Using a combination of population and health system data, we evaluated the impact of two pilot fee exemption interventions in a rural area of Madagascar. We found that fewer than one-third of people in need of health care accessed treatment when point-of-service fees were in place. However, when fee exemptions were introduced for targeted medicines and services, the use of health care increased by 65 percent for all patients, 52 percent for children under age five, and over 25 percent for maternity consultations. These effects were sustained at an average direct cost of US$0.60 per patient. The pilot interventions can become a key element of universal health care in Madagascar with the support of external donors.