Satisfaction with Telehealth Care in the United States: Cross-Sectional Survey.

Background: Telehealth use remains high following the COVID-19 pandemic, but patient satisfaction with telehealth care is unclear. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS 6). 2,058 English and Spanish-speaking U.S. adults (≥18 years) with a telehealth visit in the 12 months before March-November 2022 were included in this study. The primary outcomes were telehealth visit modality and satisfaction in the 12 months before HINTS 6. We evaluated sociodemographic predictors of telehealth visit modality and satisfaction via Poisson regression. Analyses were weighted according to HINTS standards. Results: We included 2,058 participants (48.4 ± 16.8 years; 57% women; 66% White), of which 70% had an audio-video and 30% an audio-only telehealth visit. Adults with an audio-video visit were more likely to have health insurance (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-2.04) and have an annual household income of ≥$75,000 (aPR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00-1.39) and less likely to be ≥65 years (aPR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70-0.89), adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. No further inequities were noted by telehealth modality. Seventy-five percent of participants felt that their telehealth visits were as good as in-person care. No significant differences in telehealth satisfaction were observed across sociodemographic characteristics, telehealth modality, or the participants' primary reason for their most recent telehealth visit in adjusted analysis. Conclusions: Among U.S. adults with a telehealth visit, the majority had an audio-video visit and were satisfied with their care. Telehealth should continue, being offered following COVID-19, as it is uniformly valued by patients.

Validation of a Zio XT Patch Accelerometer for the Objective Assessment of Physical Activity in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Combination devices to monitor heart rate/rhythms and physical activity are becoming increasingly popular in research and clinical settings. The Zio XT Patch (iRhythm Technologies, San Francisco, CA, USA) is US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved for monitoring heart rhythms, but the validity of its accelerometer for assessing physical activity is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To validate the accelerometer in the Zio XT Patch for measuring physical activity against the widely-used ActiGraph GT3X. METHODS: The Zio XT and ActiGraph wGT3X-BT (Actigraph, Pensacola, FL, USA) were worn simultaneously in two separately-funded ancillary studies to Visit 6 of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (2016-2017). Zio XT was worn on the chest and ActiGraph was worn on the hip. Raw accelerometer data were summarized using mean absolute deviation (MAD) for six different epoch lengths (1-min, 5-min, 10-min, 30-min, 1-h, and 2-h). Participants who had ≥3 days of at least 10 h of valid data between 7 a.m-11 p.m were included. Agreement of epoch-level MAD between the two devices was evaluated using correlation and mean squared error (MSE). RESULTS: Among 257 participants (average age: 78.5 ± 4.7 years; 59.1% female), there were strong correlations between MAD values from Zio XT and ActiGraph (average r: 1-min: 0.66, 5-min: 0.90, 10-min: 0.93, 30-min: 0.93, 1-h: 0.89, 2-h: 0.82), with relatively low error values (Average MSE × 106: 1-min: 349.37 g, 5-min: 86.25 g, 10-min: 56.80 g, 30-min: 45.46 g, 1-h: 52.56 g, 2-h: 54.58 g). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that Zio XT accelerometry is valid for measuring duration, frequency, and intensity of physical activity within time epochs of 5-min to 2-h.

Hearing loss and cognition: A protocol for ensuring speech understanding before neurocognitive assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Many neurocognitive evaluations involve auditory stimuli, yet there are no standard testing guidelines for individuals with hearing loss. The ensuring speech understanding (ESU) test was developed to confirm speech understanding and determine whether hearing accommodations are necessary for neurocognitive testing. METHODS: Hearing was assessed using audiometry. The probability of ESU test failure by hearing status was estimated in 2679 participants (mean age: 81.4 ± 4.6 years) using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Only 2.2% (N = 58) of participants failed the ESU test. The probability of failure increased with hearing loss severity; similar results were observed for those with and without mild cognitive impairment or dementia. DISCUSSION: The ESU test is appropriate for individuals who have variable degrees of hearing loss and cognitive function. This test can be used prior to neurocognitive testing to help reduce the risk of hearing loss and compromised auditory access to speech stimuli causing poorer performance on neurocognitive evaluation.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

Proteomic cardiovascular risk assessment in chronic kidney disease.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is widely prevalent and independently increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools derived in the general population perform poorly in CKD. Through large-scale proteomics discovery, this study aimed to create more accurate cardiovascular risk models. METHODS AND RESULTS: Elastic net regression was used to derive a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular risk in 2182 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort. The model was then validated in 485 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. All participants had CKD and no history of cardiovascular disease at study baseline when ∼5000 proteins were measured. The proteomic risk model, which consisted of 32 proteins, was superior to both the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equation and a modified Pooled Cohort Equation that included estimated glomerular filtrate rate. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort internal validation set demonstrated annualized receiver operating characteristic area under the curve values from 1 to 10 years ranging between 0.84 and 0.89 for the protein and 0.70 and 0.73 for the clinical models. Similar findings were observed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities validation cohort. For nearly half of the individual proteins independently associated with cardiovascular risk, Mendelian randomization suggested a causal link to cardiovascular events or risk factors. Pathway analyses revealed enrichment of proteins involved in immunologic function, vascular and neuronal development, and hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSION: In two sizeable populations with CKD, a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular disease surpassed clinical risk models recommended in clinical practice, even after including estimated glomerular filtration rate. New biological insights may prioritize the development of therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction in the CKD population.

The association between socioeconomic status and use of potentially inappropriate medications in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use is an important public health problem, particularly among older adults who may need multiple pharmacologic therapies for various chronic conditions. As socioeconomic status (SES) affects the quality of healthcare that individuals receive, SES may be associated with the use of PIM in older adults. This study aimed to determine whether low SES is associated with increased use of PIM. METHODS: We studied 4927 participants (aged 66-90 years) who were on at least one medication at visit five (2011-2013) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We created a cumulative SES score categorized as high (7-9), middle (3-6), and low (0-2) based on education, income, and area deprivation index. We use multivariable logistic regression to examine the associations between SES and use of two or more PIM for older adults, defined by the 2019 Beers Criteria. RESULTS: A total of 31.0% and 6.9% of the participants used one or more PIM and two or more PIM, respectively. After adjusting for demographic characteristics and insurance type, low cumulative SES score was associated with significantly greater use of two or more PIM (odds ratio [OR] = 1.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.86]), as was middle cumulative SES score (OR = 1.40 [95% CI 1.06-1.83]), compared to high cumulative SES score. The results remained significant after further adjusting for comorbidities and medication burden for low cumulative SES score (OR = 1.66 [95%CI 1.02-2.71]). CONCLUSIONS: We found that lower SES was associated with greater use of PIM among older adults independent of their medication burden and comorbidities, suggesting socioeconomic disparities in quality of medication management. Focused efforts targeting older adults with low SES to reduce PIM use may be needed to prevent adverse drug events.

Methods for stroke severity assessment by chart review in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

Stroke severity is the most important predictor of post-stroke outcome. Most longitudinal cohort studies do not include direct and validated measures of stroke severity, yet these indicators may provide valuable information about post-stroke outcomes, as well as risk factor associations. In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, stroke severity data were retrospectively collected, and this paper outlines the procedures used and shares them as a model for assessment of stroke severity in other large epidemiologic studies. Trained physician abstractors, who were blinded to other clinical events, reviewed hospital charts of all definite/probable stroke events occurring in ARIC. In this analysis we included 1,198 ischemic stroke events occurring from ARIC baseline (1987-1989) through December 31, 2009. Stroke severity was categorized according to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score and classified into 5 levels: NIHSS ≤ 5 (minor), NIHSS 6-10 (mild), NIHSS 11-15 (moderate), NIHSS 16-20 (severe), and NIHSS > 20 (very severe). We assessed interrater reliability in a subgroup of 180 stroke events, reviewed independently by the lead abstraction physician and one of the four secondary physician abstractors. Interrater correlation coefficients for continuous NIHSS score as well as percentage of absolute agreement and Cohen Kappa Statistic for NIHSS categories were presented. Determination of stroke severity by the NIHSS, based on data abstracted from hospital charts, was possible for 97% of all ischemic stroke events. Median (25%-75%) NIHSS score was 5 (2-8). The distribution of NIHSS category was NIHSS ≤ 5 = 58.3%, NIHSS 6-10 = 24.5%, NIHSS 11-15 = 8.9%, NIHSS 16-20 = 4.7%, NIHSS > 20 = 3.6%. Overall agreement in the classification of severity by NIHSS category was present in 145/180 events (80.56%). Cohen's simple Kappa statistic (95% CI) was 0.64 (0.55-0.74) and weighted Kappa was 0.79 (0.72-0.86). Mean (SD) NIHSS score was 5.84 (5.88), with a median score of 4 and range 0-31 for the lead reviewer (rater 1) and mean (SD) 6.16 (6.10), median 4.5 and range 0-36 in the second independent assessment (rater 2). There was a very high correlation between the scores reported in both assessments (Pearson r = 0.90). Based on our findings, we conclude that hospital chart-based retrospective assessment of stroke severity using the NIHSS is feasible and reliable.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design.

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comprising 14 established United States (US) prospective cohort studies. For decades, C4R cohorts have collected extensive data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R will link this pre-COVID phenotyping to information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute and post-acute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and broadly reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the US. C4R is ascertaining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations, and high-quality events surveillance. Extensive pre-pandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are being harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This unique resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including post-acute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term trajectories of health and aging.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Kidney Disease, Race, and GFR Estimation.

Assessment of GFR is central to clinical practice, research, and public health. Current Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines recommend measurement of serum creatinine to estimate GFR as the initial step in GFR evaluation. Serum creatinine is influenced by creatinine metabolism as well as GFR; hence, all equations to estimate GFR from serum creatinine include surrogates for muscle mass, such as age, sex, race, height, or weight. The guideline-recommended equation in adults (the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation) includes a term for race (specified as black versus nonblack), which improves the accuracy of GFR estimation by accounting for differences in non-GFR determinants of serum creatinine by race in the study populations used to develop the equation. In that study, blacks had a 16% higher average measured GFR compared with nonblacks with the same age, sex, and serum creatinine. The reasons for this difference are only partly understood, and the use of race in GFR estimation has limitations. Some have proposed eliminating the race coefficient, but this would induce a systematic underestimation of measured GFR in blacks, with potential unintended consequences at the individual and population levels. We propose a more cautious approach that maintains and improves accuracy of GFR estimates and avoids disadvantaging any racial group. We suggest full disclosure of use of race in GFR estimation, accommodation of those who decline to identify their race, and shared decision making between health care providers and patients. We also suggest mindful use of cystatin C as a confirmatory test as well as clearance measurements. It would be preferable to avoid specification of race in GFR estimation if there was a superior, evidence-based substitute. The goal of future research should be to develop more accurate methods for GFR estimation that do not require use of race or other demographic characteristics.

Performance of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Assays to Reflect Comorbidity Burden and Improve Mortality Risk Stratification in Older Adults With Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Incorporation of comorbidity burden to inform diabetes management in older adults remains challenging. High-sensitivity cardiac troponins are objective, quantifiable biomarkers that may improve risk monitoring in older adults. We assessed the associations of elevations in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and T (hs-cTnT) with comorbidities and improvements in mortality risk stratification. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used logistic regression to examine associations of comorbidities with elevations in either troponin (≥85th percentile) among 1,835 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study with diabetes (ages 67-89 years, 43% male, 31% black) at visit 5 (2011-2013). We used Cox models to compare associations of high cardiac troponins with mortality across comorbidity levels. RESULTS: Elevations in either troponin (≥9.4 ng/L for hs-cTnI, ≥25 ng/L for hs-cTnT) were associated with prevalent coronary heart disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, pulmonary disease, hypoglycemia, hypertension, dementia, and frailty. Over a median follow-up of 6.2 years (418 deaths), both high hs-cTnI and high hs-cTnT further stratified mortality risk beyond comorbidity levels; those with a high hs-cTnI or hs-cTnT and high comorbidity were at highest mortality risk. Even among those with low comorbidity, a high hs-cTnI (hazard ratio 3.0 [95% CI 1.7, 5.4]) or hs-cTnT (hazard ratio 3.3 [95% CI 1.8, 6.2]) was associated with elevated mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Many comorbidities were reflected by both hs-cTnI and hs-cTnT; elevations in either of the troponins were associated with higher mortality risk beyond comorbidity burden. High-sensitivity cardiac troponins may identify older adults at high mortality risk and be useful in guiding clinical care of older adults with diabetes.

Risk of ESKD in Older Live Kidney Donors with Hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension in older kidney donor candidates is viewed as safe. However, hypertension guidelines have evolved and long-term outcomes have not been explored. We sought to quantify the 15-year risk of ESKD and mortality in older donors (≥50 years old) with versus those without hypertension. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: A United States cohort of 24,533 older donors from 1999 to 2016, including 2265 with predonation hypertension, were linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data and the Social Security Death Master File to ascertain ESKD development and mortality. The exposure of interest was predonation hypertension. From 2004 to 2016, hypertension was defined as documented predonation use of antihypertensive therapy, regardless of systolic BP or diastolic BP; from 1999 to 2003, when there was no documentation of antihypertensive therapy, hypertension was defined as predonation systolic BP ≥140 or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg. RESULTS: Older donors were 82% white, 6% black, 7% Hispanic, and 3% Asian. The median follow-up was 7.1 years (interquartile range, 3.4-11.1; maximum, 18). There were 24 ESKD and 252 death events during the study period. The 15-year risk of ESKD was 0.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.4 to 1.6) for donors with hypertension (mean systolic BP, 138 mm Hg) versus 0.2% (95% CI, 0.1 to 0.4) for donors without hypertension (mean systolic BP, 123 mm Hg; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.28 to 7.22; P=0.01). When predonation antihypertensive therapy was available, the risk of ESKD was 6.21-fold higher (95% CI, 1.20 to 32.17; P=0.03) for donors using antihypertensive therapy (mean systolic BP, 132 mm Hg) versus those not using antihypertensive therapy (mean systolic BP, 124 mm Hg). There was no significant association between donor hypertension and 15-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.66; P=0.34). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with older donors without hypertension, older donors with hypertension had higher risk of ESKD, but not mortality, for 15 years postdonation. However, the absolute risk of ESKD was small.

Cost-effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccination Among Patients With CKD in the United States.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Pneumococcal vaccine is recommended for adults 65 years and older and those younger than 65 years with clinical indications (eg, diabetes, lung/heart disease, kidney failure, and nephrotic syndrome). Its cost-effectiveness in less severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) is uncharacterized. STUDY DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING & POPULATION: US adults aged 50 to 64 and 65 to 79 years stratified by CKD risk status: no CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate≥60mL/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio<30mg/g), CKD with moderate risk, CKD with high risk, and kidney failure (estimated glomerular filtration rate<15mL/min/1.73m2) or nephrotic-range albuminuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio≥2,000mg/g). Data sources were the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2004, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. INTERVENTION(S): Vaccination compared to no vaccination. OUTCOMES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios based on US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMEFRAME: Markov model, US health sector perspective, and lifetime horizon. RESULTS: The prevalence of pneumococcal vaccination in NHANES 1999 to 2004 was 56.6% (aged 65-79 years), 28.5% (aged 50-64 years with an indication), and 9.7% (aged 50-64 years without an indication), with similar prevalences across CKD risk status. Pneumococcal vaccination was overall cost-effective (

Statistical methods for building better biomarkers of chronic kidney disease.

The last two decades have witnessed an explosion in research focused on the development and assessment of novel biomarkers for improved prognosis of diseases. As a result, best practice standards guiding biomarker research have undergone extensive development. Currently, there is great interest in the promise of biomarkers to enhance research efforts and clinical practice in the setting of chronic kidney disease, acute kidney injury, and glomerular disease. However, some have questioned whether biomarkers currently add value to the clinical practice of nephrology. The current state of the art pertaining to statistical analyses regarding the use of such measures is critical. In December 2014, the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases convened a meeting, "Toward Building Better Biomarker Statistical Methodology," with the goals of summarizing the current best practice recommendations and articulating new directions for methodological research. This report summarizes its conclusions and describes areas that need attention. Suggestions are made regarding metrics that should be commonly reported. We outline the methodological issues related to traditional metrics and considerations in prognostic modeling, including discrimination and case mix, calibration, validation, and cost-benefit analysis. We highlight the approach to improved risk communication and the value of graphical displays. Finally, we address some "new frontiers" in prognostic biomarker research, including the competing risk framework, the use of longitudinal biomarkers, and analyses in distributed research networks.

Socioeconomic status and risk of kidney dysfunction: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence of an association between socioeconomic status (SES) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, the association of SES with the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the rate of change in kidney function is unclear. METHODS: A cohort of 14 086 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (1987-89) were studied. The association of annual household income, educational attainment and neighborhood deprivation with incident ESRD, incident CKD and change in eGFR using four measurements over ∼23 years was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 432 participants developed ESRD and 3510 developed CKD over a median follow-up time of ∼23 years. After adjustment for demographics and baseline eGFR, the hazard ratio (HR) for incident ESRD compared with the high-income group was 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.99 in the medium-income group and 2.30 (95% CI 1.75-3.02) in the low-income group (P-trend < 0.001), and for CKD was 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.20) in the medium-income group and 1.30 (95% CI 1.17-1.44) in the low-income group (P-trend < 0.001). After full adjustments, the HR for ESRD was 1.33 (95% CI 1.03-1.70) in the medium-income group and 1.50 (95% CI 1.14-1.98) in the low-income group (P-trend = 0.003) and for CKD was 1.01 (95% CI 0.92-1.10) in the medium-income group and 1.04 (95% CI 0.93-1.16) in the low-income group (P-trend = 0.50). The eGFR decline was 5% and 15% steeper in the medium- and low-income groups, respectively, after full adjustment (P-trend < 0.001). Results were similar, with lower educational attainment and higher neighborhood deprivation being associated with adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: SES (annual household income, educational attainment or neighborhood deprivation) was associated not only with ESRD risk but also with eGFR decline, although the association with CKD appeared weaker.

Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

Patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Accurate estimates of risk and timing of these clinical outcomes could guide patient counseling and therapy. Therefore, we developed models using data of 264,296 individuals in 30 countries participating in the international Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium with estimated GFR (eGFR)s under 30 ml/min/1.73m2. Median participant eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio were 24 ml/min/1.73m2 and 168 mg/g, respectively. Using competing-risk regression, random-effect meta-analysis, and Markov processes with Monte Carlo simulations, we developed two- and four-year models of the probability and timing of kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT), a non-fatal CVD event, and death according to age, sex, race, eGFR, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, and history of CVD. Hypothetically applied to a 60-year-old white male with a history of CVD, a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, an eGFR of 25 ml/min/1.73m2 and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 1000 mg/g, the four-year model predicted a 17% chance of survival after KRT, a 17% chance of survival after a CVD event, a 4% chance of survival after both, and a 28% chance of death (9% as a first event, and 19% after another CVD event or KRT). Risk predictions for KRT showed good overall agreement with the published kidney failure risk equation, and both models were well calibrated with observed risk. Thus, commonly-measured clinical characteristics can predict the timing and occurrence of clinical outcomes in patients with severely decreased GFR.

SES, Heart Failure, and N-terminal Pro-b-type Natriuretic Peptide: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

INTRODUCTION: Compared with coronary heart disease and stroke, the association between SES and the risk of heart failure is less well understood. METHODS: In 12,646 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort free of heart failure history at baseline (1987-1989), the association of income, educational attainment, and area deprivation index with subsequent heart failure-related hospitalization or death was examined while accounting for cardiovascular disease risk factors and healthcare access. Because SES may affect threshold of identifying heart failure and admitting for heart failure management, secondarily the association between SES and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, a marker reflecting cardiac overload, was investigated. Analysis was conducted in 2016. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 24.3 years, a total of 2,249 participants developed heart failure. In a demographically adjusted model, the lowest-SES group had 2.2- to 2.5-fold higher risk of heart failure compared with the highest SES group for income, education, and area deprivation. With further adjustment for time-varying cardiovascular disease risk factors and healthcare access, these associations were attenuated but remained statistically significant (e.g., hazard ratio=1.92, 95% CI=1.69, 2.19 for the lowest versus highest income), with no racial interaction (p>0.05 for all SES measures). Similarly, compared with high SES, low SES was associated with both higher baseline level of NT-proBNP in a multivariable adjusted model (15% higher, p<0.001) and increase over time (~1% greater per year, p=0.023). CONCLUSIONS: SES was associated with clinical heart failure as well as NT-proBNP levels inversely and independently of traditional cardiovascular disease factors and healthcare access.

Socioeconomic Status and Incidence of Hospitalization With Lower-Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Compared to coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke, the relationship between low socioeconomic status (SES) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) is less well established. We examined the association between SES and incidence of hospitalization with PAD and explored whether this association can be explained by traditional cardiovascular risk factors and healthcare access. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 517 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (1987-1989) with no prior PAD were examined. Individual-level SES was assessed from household income (low <$12 000/year, medium $12 000 to $24 999/year, and high ≥$25 000/year [double to approximate to values in 2016]) and educational attainment (high school), and area-level SES from area deprivation index (quintiles). During a median follow-up of 23.6 (Interquartile range 19.6-24.5) years, 433 participants had a hospitalization with PAD. In Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the demographically adjusted hazard ratio was 2.42 (1.81-3.23) for low household income, 2.08 (1.60-2.69) for low educational attainment, and 2.18 (1.35-3.53) for most deprived neighborhoods, compared to their high-SES counterparts. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and heath care access, the associations were attenuated but remained significant, particularly for income and education. Results were consistent when stratified by race (P-values for interaction >0.2 for all SES parameters). CONCLUSIONS: Low individual- and area-level SES are strong predictors of hospitalization with PAD, in part due to increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and poor access to care in these groups. Additional risk factors may also need to be identified and acted on to eliminate SES disparities in PAD hospitalization.

Community burden and prognostic impact of reduced kidney function among patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Community Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Kidney dysfunction is prevalent and impacts prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, most previous reports were from a single hospital, limiting their generalizability. Also, contemporary data using new equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are needed. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from the ARIC Community Surveillance for ADHF conducted for residents aged ≥55 years in four US communities between 2005-2011. All ADHF cases (n = 5, 391) were adjudicated and weighted to represent those communities (24,932 weighted cases). The association of kidney function (creatinine-based eGFR by the CKD-EPI equation and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) during hospitalization with 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression. Based on worst and last serum creatinine, there were 82.5% and 70.6% with reduced eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73m2) and 37.4% and 26.6% with severely reduced eGFR (<30 ml/min/1.73m2), respectively. Lower eGFR (regardless of last or worst eGFR), particularly eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73m2, was significantly associated with higher 1-year mortality independently of potential confounders (odds ratio 1.60 [95% CI 1.26-2.04] for last eGFR 15-29 ml/min/1.73m2 and 2.30 [1.76-3.00] for <15 compared to eGFR ≥60). The association was largely consistent across demographic subgroups. Of interest, when both eGFR and BUN were modeled together, only BUN remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Severely reduced eGFR (<30 ml/min/1.73m2) was observed in ~30% of ADHF cases and was an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in community. For prediction, BUN appeared to be superior to eGFR. These findings suggest the need of close attention to kidney dysfunction among ADHF patients.