Is the assumption of waning of treatment effect applied consistently across NICE technology appraisals? A case-study focusing on disease-modifying therapies for treatment of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Whether the effects of therapies may wane over time is a matter of debate, especially when considering their long-term cost-effectiveness. Here, we examined how the assumption of the waning of treatment effect was applied across the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) appraisals for disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) used in multiple sclerosis. METHODS: We undertook a document analysis following a search of the NICE website. The inclusion criteria of the study were as follows: all publicly available documents related to completed appraisals for DMTs (period: January 2000 to July 2021). The exclusion criteria of the study were as follows: all documents that did not meet the inclusion criteria, especially pertaining to drugs used in other disease areas. We extracted information about the waning of treatment effect assumption as considered by companies, assessment groups, and appraisal committees, and we analyzed trends over time. RESULTS: We reviewed fifteen appraisals that reported guidance on sixteen DMTs. Irrespective of the drugs' mechanism of action or their pharmaceutical nature, there was substantial variation in the modalities when the assumption of waning was implemented. We noted the recent preference to use all-cause discontinuation as a proxy. This heterogeneity did not appear to affect acceptance of the DMTs (all but one were recommended for use across the National Health System (NHS)). CONCLUSIONS: Modeling the long-term effect of therapies is challenging, especially given the limited follow-up duration of related trials. This generates recurrent debates on the presence of waning of treatment efficacy and heterogeneity across appraisals. More refined recommendations obtained by consensus among stakeholders could help to achieve greater consistency in decision making.

Pre-hospital and emergency department treatment of convulsive status epilepticus in adults: an evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Convulsive status epilepticus is defined as ≥ 5 minutes of either continuous seizure activity or repetitive seizures without regaining consciousness. It is regarded as an emergency condition that requires prompt treatment to avoid hospitalisation and to reduce morbidity and mortality. Rapid pre-hospital first-line treatment of convulsive status epilepticus is currently benzodiazepines, administered either by trained caregivers in the community (e.g. buccal midazolam, rectal diazepam) or by trained health professionals via intramuscular or intravenous routes (e.g. midazolam, lorazepam). There is a lack of clarity about the optimal treatment for convulsive status epilepticus in the pre-hospital setting. OBJECTIVES: To assess the current evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for adults with convulsive status epilepticus in the pre-hospital setting. DATA SOURCES: We searched major electronic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo®, CINAHL, CENTRAL, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment Database, Research Papers in Economics, and the ISPOR Scientific Presentations Database, with no restrictions on publication date or language of publication. Final searches were carried out on 21 July 2020. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic review of randomised controlled trials assessing adults with convulsive status epilepticus who received treatment before or on arrival at the emergency department. Eligible treatments were any antiepileptic drugs offered as first-line treatments, regardless of their route of administration. Primary outcomes were seizure cessation, seizure recurrence and adverse events. Two reviewers independently screened all citations identified by the search strategy, retrieved full-text articles, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included trials. Results were described narratively. RESULTS: Four trials (1345 randomised participants, of whom 1234 were adults) assessed the intravenous or intramuscular use of benzodiazepines or other antiepileptic drugs for the pre-hospital treatment of convulsive status epilepticus in adults. Three trials at a low risk of bias showed that benzodiazepines were effective in stopping seizures. In particular, intramuscular midazolam was non-inferior to intravenous lorazepam. The addition of levetiracetam to clonazepam did not show clear advantages over clonazepam alone. One trial at a high risk of bias showed that phenobarbital plus optional phenytoin was more effective in terminating seizures than diazepam plus phenytoin. The median time to seizure cessation from drug administration varied from 1.6 minutes to 15 minutes. The proportion of people with recurrence of seizures ranged from 10.4% to 19.1% in two trials reporting this outcome. Across trials, the rates of respiratory depression among participants receiving active treatments were generally low (from 6.4% to 10.6%). The mortality rate ranged from 2% to 7.6% in active treatment groups and from 6.2% to 15.5% in control groups. Only one study based on retrospective observational data met the criteria for economic evaluation; therefore, it was not possible to draw any robust conclusions on cost-effectiveness. LIMITATIONS: The limited number of identified trials and their differences in terms of treatment comparisons and outcomes hindered any meaningful pooling of data. None of the included trials was conducted in the UK and none assessed the use of buccal midazolam or rectal diazepam. The review of economic evaluations was hampered by lack of suitable data. CONCLUSIONS: Both intravenous lorazepam and intravenous diazepam administered by paramedics are more effective than a placebo in the treatments of adults with convulsive status epilepticus, and intramuscular midazolam is non-inferior to intravenous lorazepam. Large well-designed clinical trials are needed to establish which benzodiazepines are more effective and preferable in the pre-hospital setting. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020201953. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 20. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Epilepsy is a common condition that results from abnormal electrical activity in the brain and causes seizures (stiffening and uncontrolled jerking ­ known as a 'fit'). The most severe form of epilepsy is called 'convulsive status epilepticus', which involves continuous seizure activity for 5 minutes or more, or repetitive seizures without recovery of consciousness. Convulsive status epilepticus can be very dangerous and requires prompt treatment to avoid hospitalisation and prevent complications. Although several drugs are available for the treatment of convulsive status epilepticus in the community or in the emergency department, it is unclear which one is most effective in stopping seizures. We brought together results from all available clinical studies that looked at the use of drugs to treat adults with convulsive status epilepticus either before arriving at hospital or on arrival at the emergency department. In the literature, we found four studies (1234 adults) assessing drugs delivered by paramedics through an injection into a vein or into muscle. In general, the drugs used by paramedics (benzodiazepines) were effective in stopping seizures, but we were unable to identify any particular drug or way of administering it as being more successful than others. Future research is needed to establish which drugs are most effective and preferable. It is also important to improve adherence to clinical guidelines with regard to the use of these drugs. For the pre-hospital treatment of convulsive status epilepticus, little evidence was available to decide which drug treatment is the best in terms of value for money. Future studies could assess the (1) impact of treatments on costs and outcomes over the whole course of a seizure episode (2) long-term impact of different treatments on patients' quality of life and (3) health and social care needs.

Ocrelizumab not recommended in France for patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis while recommended in England: a review comparing the assessment by HAS and NICE.

INTRODUCTION: Ocrelizumab is the first approved drug for primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Following appraisal by health technology assessment (HTA) bodies, this medicine has not been widely covered across European countries. We have compared the HTA process in England and France. AREA COVERED: We undertook an analysis of relevant documents that were published by the two HTA bodies. We analyzed patients' availability of Ocrelizumab at the different stages of the process. EXPERT OPINION: We identified differences in the assessment, one being the use of a different population of the pivotal trial, which has resulted in the consideration of distinct clinical effectiveness estimates. Ocrelizumab became available earlier in France as part of an early access program. However, rapid access was discontinued for newly eligible patients following an opinion concluding that Ocrelizumab yielded no additional benefit over placebo. This opinion was not compatible with the criteria allowing reimbursement in France.In England, there was no early access program and following an appraisal that included cost-effectiveness evaluation combined with pricing agreements, medicine was finally recommended. In conclusion, differences in the HTA process may result in appreciable differences in timing and outcome from marketing authorization to the adoption of newly licensed drugs.

Ocrelizumab for Treating Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

Ocrelizumab is indicated for relapsing remitting and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (RRMS and PPMS, respectively). In an appraisal undertaken by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the company Roche presented the evidence for ocrelizumab used in patients with PPMS, which came from one single randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing ocrelizumab versus placebo. Based on results from this trial, the licensed indication was restricted to patients with early PPMS in terms of disease duration and level of disability, and with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity. Overall, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) found that the RCT had a low risk of bias. In the post-hoc defined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) active subgroup, matching the label indication, the risk of confirmed disability progression sustained for 12 weeks (CDP-12) was significantly delayed in the ocrelizumab group compared to placebo. However, considering the same risk with progression sustained for 24 weeks (CDP-24), which was deemed the most clinically relevant, the benefit from ocrelizumab did not reach statistical significance. In the same MRI active subgroup, benefits from ocrelizumab on functional outcomes and on health-related quality of life were not clearly demonstrated. A de novo Markov model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care (BSC) for treating patients with PPMS. Health states were defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), ranging from 0 to 9. Disability progression was based on the MSBase natural history cohort that exhibited disease progression in the absence of disease-modifying therapy. Treatment with ocrelizumab delayed disability progression, with evidence of its clinical effectiveness obtained from the RCT. The economic analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, and the outcomes were reported in terms of life years gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), with the overall results reported in terms of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per QALY gained over a 50-year time horizon. Both costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% per annum. The company undertook deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). The ERG raised several concerns, which were discussed at the appraisal committee meetings, resulting in the committee's preferences being applied and a revised economic analysis from the company. Under an approved patient access scheme with appraisal committee preferences applied, analyses yielded an ICER of approximately £78,300 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that the treatment effect on CDP-12 had the greatest impact. Results for the PSA showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained, ocrelizumab versus BSC had a zero probability of being cost-effective. Following new analyses submitted by the company, with a revised confidential patient access scheme, NICE recommended ocrelizumab in the treatment of early PPMS in adults with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate for treating multiple sclerosis: systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: At the time of publication of the most recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [technology appraisal (TA) 32] in 2002 on beta-interferon (IFN-ß) and glatiramer acetate (GA) for multiple sclerosis, there was insufficient evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: To undertake (1) systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IFN-ß and GA in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) compared with best supportive care (BSC) and each other, investigating annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months and 6 months and (2) cost-effectiveness assessments of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for CIS and RRMS compared with BSC and each other. REVIEW METHODS: Searches were undertaken in January and February 2016 in databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and the Science Citation Index. We limited some database searches to specific start dates based on previous, relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts with recourse to a third when needed. The Cochrane tool and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Philips checklists were used for appraisal. Narrative synthesis and, when possible, random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. Cost-effectiveness analysis used published literature, findings from the Department of Health's risk-sharing scheme (RSS) and expert opinion. A de novo economic model was built for CIS. The base case used updated RSS data, a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective, a 50-year time horizon, 2014/15 prices and a discount rate of 3.5%. Outcomes are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We undertook probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In total, 6420 publications were identified, of which 63 relating to 35 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. In total, 86% had a high risk of bias. There was very little difference between drugs in reducing moderate or severe relapse rates in RRMS. All were beneficial compared with BSC, giving a pooled rate ratio of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.76] for ARR and a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87) for time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months. NMA suggested that 20 mg of GA given subcutaneously had the highest probability of being the best at reducing ARR. Three separate cost-effectiveness searches identified > 2500 publications, with 26 included studies informing the narrative synthesis and model inputs. In the base case using a modified RSS the mean incremental cost was £31,900 for pooled DMTs compared with BSC and the mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.943, giving an ICER of £33,800 per QALY gained for people with RRMS. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis the ICER was £34,000 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, using the assessment group inputs gave an ICER of £12,800 per QALY gained for pooled DMTs compared with BSC. Pegylated IFN-ß-1 (125 µg) was the most cost-effective option of the individual DMTs compared with BSC (ICER £7000 per QALY gained); GA (20 mg) was the most cost-effective treatment for CIS (ICER £16,500 per QALY gained). LIMITATIONS: Although we built a de novo model for CIS that incorporated evidence from our systematic review of clinical effectiveness, our findings relied on a population diagnosed with CIS before implementation of the revised 2010 McDonald criteria. CONCLUSIONS: DMTs were clinically effective for RRMS and CIS but cost-effective only for CIS. Both RCT evidence and RSS data are at high risk of bias. Research priorities include comparative studies with longer follow-up and systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016043278. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Anticoagulants for acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Most ischaemic strokes are caused by a blood clot blocking an artery in the brain. Clot prevention with anticoagulants might improve outcomes if bleeding risks are low. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 1995, with recent updates in 2004 and 2008. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of early anticoagulation (within the first 14 days of onset) in people with acute presumed or confirmed ischaemic stroke. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (June 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), the Database of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA) (The Cochrane Library 2014 Issue 6), MEDLINE (2008 to June 2014) and EMBASE (2008 to June 2014). In addition, we searched ongoing trials registries and reference lists of relevant papers. For previous versions of this review, we searched the register of the Antithrombotic Trialists' (ATT) Collaboration, consulted MedStrategy (1995), and contacted relevant drug companies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised trials comparing early anticoagulant therapy (started within two weeks of stroke onset) with control in people with acute presumed or confirmed ischaemic stroke. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed trial quality, and extracted the data. MAIN RESULTS: We included 24 trials involving 23,748 participants. The quality of the trials varied considerably. The anticoagulants tested were standard unfractionated heparin, low-molecular-weight heparins, heparinoids, oral anticoagulants, and thrombin inhibitors. Over 90% of the evidence relates to the effects of anticoagulant therapy initiated within the first 48 hours of onset. Based on 11 trials (22,776 participants) there was no evidence that anticoagulant therapy started within the first 14 days of stroke onset reduced the odds of death from all causes (odds ratio (OR) 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98 to 1.12) at the end of follow-up. Similarly, based on eight trials (22,125 participants), there was no evidence that early anticoagulation reduced the odds of being dead or dependent at the end of follow-up (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.04). Although early anticoagulant therapy was associated with fewer recurrent ischaemic strokes (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.88), it was also associated with an increase in symptomatic intracranial haemorrhages (OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.95 to 3.33). Similarly, early anticoagulation reduced the frequency of symptomatic pulmonary emboli (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.44 to 0.81), but this benefit was offset by an increase in extracranial haemorrhages (OR 2.99; 95% CI 2.24 to 3.99). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Since the last version of the review, no new relevant studies have been published and so there is no additional information to change the conclusions. Early anticoagulant therapy is not associated with net short- or long-term benefit in people with acute ischaemic stroke. Treatment with anticoagulants reduced recurrent stroke, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, but increased bleeding risk. The data do not support the routine use of any of the currently available anticoagulants in acute ischaemic stroke.

Age-, gender-, and socioeconomic status-specific incidence of Parkinson's disease and parkinsonism in northeast Scotland: the PINE study.

There have been few high quality incidence studies of Parkinson's disease (PD). We measured age-, gender- and socioeconomic-specific incidence rates for parkinsonism and PD in north-east Scotland, and compared our results with those of previous high quality studies. Incident patients were identified prospectively over three years by several overlapping methods from primary care practices (total population 311,357). Parkinsonism was diagnosed if patients had two or more cardinal motor signs. Drug-induced parkinsonism was excluded. Patients had yearly follow-up to improve diagnostic accuracy. Incidence rates using clinical diagnosis at latest follow-up were calculated for all parkinsonism and for PD by age, gender and socioeconomic status. Meta-analysis with similar studies was performed. Of 377 patients identified at baseline with possible or probable parkinsonism, 363 were confirmed as incident patients after median follow-up of 26 months (mean age 74.8 years, SD 9.8; 61% men). The crude annual incidence of parkinsonism was 28.7 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.7-31.8) and PD 17.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 15.5-20.4). PD was more common in men (age-adjusted male to female ratio 1.87:1, 95% CI 1.55-2.23) but there was no difference by socioeconomic status. Meta-analysis of 12 studies showed an incidence of PD (adjusted to the 1990 Scottish population) of 14.6 per 100,000 (95% CI 12.2-17.3) with considerable heterogeneity (I(2) 95%), partially explained by population size and recruitment duration. The incidence of PD was similar to other high quality studies. The incidence of PD was not affected by socioeconomic status.

The use of decision-analytic models in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and critical appraisal.

The aims of this review were to review decision-analytic models used to evaluate interventions in idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD), and to consider the future directions for development of methods to model the progression of PD over time. A systematic search of the healthcare literature up to June 2010 identified model-based economic evaluations in PD. The modelling methods used in the identified studies were appraised using good practice guidelines for decision-analytic modelling. The review identified 18 model-based evaluations of interventions in PD. All models evaluated treatments targeted towards the motor symptoms of PD or the motor complications of PD treatment. There were no models identified that evaluated interventions targeted towards the non-motor symptoms of PD, such as neuropsychiatric problems or autonomic dysfunction. Consequently, models characterized disease progression in PD using clinical measures of motor functioning. Most studies (n = 13) evaluated medications, three evaluated diagnostic technologies and two examined surgical procedures. Overall, the models reported structural components and data inputs appropriately and clearly, although limited evidence was provided to support choices made on the structures used in the models or the data synthesis reported. Models did not adequately consider structural uncertainty or internal/external consistency. Modelling methods used to date do not capture the full impact of PD. The emphasis in the current literature is on the motor symptoms of PD, characterizing the clinical nature of disease progression, largely neglecting the important impacts of non-motor symptoms. Modelling methods reported for the motor symptoms of PD may not be suitable for future interventions targeted towards modifying disease progression in PD across the entire spectrum of PD. More comprehensive models of disease progression, including both motor and non-motor symptoms will be needed where it is important to capture the effects of interventions more broadly.

Shape analysis of 123I-N-omega-fluoropropyl-2-beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-(4-iodophenyl) nortropane single-photon emission computed tomography images in the assessment of patients with parkinsonian syndromes.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to show the viability and performance of a shape-based pattern recognition technique applied to I-N-omega-fluoropropyl-2-beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-(4-iodophenyl) nortropane single-photon emission computed tomography (FP-CIT SPECT) in patients with parkinsonism. METHODS: A fully automated pattern recognition tool, based on the shape of FP-CIT SPECT images, was written using Java. Its performance was evaluated and compared with QuantiSPECT, a region-of-interest-based quantitation tool, and observer performance using receiver operating characteristic analysis and kappa statistics. The techniques were compared using a sample of patients and controls recruited from a prospective community-based study of first presentation of parkinsonian symptoms with longitudinal follow up (median 3 years). RESULTS: The shape-based technique as well as the conventional semiquantitative approach was performed by experienced observers. The technique had a high level of automation, thereby avoiding observer/operator variability. CONCLUSION: A pattern recognition approach is a viable alternative to traditional methods of analysis in FP-CIT SPECT and has additional advantages.

Developing a sensitive search strategy in MEDLINE to retrieve studies on assessment of the diagnostic performance of imaging techniques.

PURPOSE: To prospectively develop a search strategy in MEDLINE for identifying studies on the diagnostic performance of any imaging modality, with maximized and minimized retrieval of relevant and irrelevant studies, respectively. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Predefined inclusion criteria were used to conduct a hand search of two sets of radiologic journal articles for studies on assessment of the diagnostic performance of imaging techniques. These two sets of articles formed independent derivation and validation record sets for developing and evaluating the search strategy. The sensitivity and positive predictive values (PPVs) of search terms from the derivation reference-standard set of records were used to select terms and develop two components of the search strategy. The first component was used to identify any study (from the imaging literature) in which diagnostic test performance was assessed. The second component was used to identify studies of any imaging modality. The two components were combined in the final search strategy. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of the search strategy in the derivation and validation record sets were calculated. RESULTS: The final search strategy had a sensitivity of 92.8%, a specificity of 58.5%, and a PPV of 25.1% for retrieval of the derivation set of records. Validation with an independent set of records gave a sensitivity of 91.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 87.1%, 95.1%), a specificity of 52.2% (95% CI: 49.2%, 55.2%), and a PPV of 25.1% (95% CI: 22.0%, 28.5%). Removal of irrelevant publication types further improved specificity and PPV in the validation set: to 77.6% (95% CI: 75.0%, 80.0%) and 40.9% (95% CI: 36.2%, 45.7%), respectively. The volume of imaging literature retrieved from MEDLINE by using the described search strategy has tripled since 1975. CONCLUSION: A sensitive search strategy to identify studies of the diagnostic performance of any imaging test was developed and validated. The retrieval estimates of this strategy in MEDLINE are adequate to develop a register of studies.