Survival, Function, and Cognition After Hospitalization in Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals.

Importance: More than 70 000 Medicare beneficiaries receive care in long-term acute care hospitals (LTCHs) annually for prolonged acute illness. However, little is known about long-term functional and cognitive outcomes of middle-aged and older adults after hospitalization in an LTCH. Objective: To describe survival, functional, and cognitive status after LTCH hospitalization and to identify factors associated with an adverse outcome. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included middle-aged and older adults enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with linked fee-for-service Medicare claims. Included participants were aged 50 years or older with an LTCH admission between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2016, with HRS interviews available before admission. Data were analyzed between November 1, 2021, and June 30, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Function and cognition were ascertained from HRS interviews conducted every 2 years. The primary outcome was death or severe impairment in the 2.5 years after LTCH hospitalization, defined as dependencies in 2 or more activities of daily living (ADLs) or dementia. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate associations with a priori selected risk factors including pre-LTCH survival prognosis (Lee index score), pre-LTCH impairment status, and illness severity characterized by receipt of mechanical ventilation and prolonged intensive care unit stay of 3 days or longer. Results: This study included 396 participants, with a median age of 75 (IQR, 68-82) years. Of the participants, 201 (51%) were women, 125 (28%) had severe impairment, and 318 (80%) died or survived with severe impairment (functional, cognitive, or both) within 2.5 years of LTCH hospitalization. After accounting for acute illness characteristics, prehospitalization survival prognosis as determined by the Lee index score and severe baseline impairment (functional, cognitive, or both) were associated with an increased likelihood of death or severe impairment in the 2.5 years after LTCH hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 3.2 [95% CI, 1.7 to 6.0] for a 5-point increase in Lee index score; and AOR, 4.5 [95% CI, 1.3 to 15.4] for severe vs no impairment). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, 4 of 5 middle-aged and older adults died or survived with severe impairment within 2.5 years of LTCH hospitalization. Better preadmission survival prognosis and functional and cognitive status were associated with lower risk of an adverse outcome, and these findings should inform decision-making for older adults with prolonged acute illness.

Long-term outcomes after rehabilitation in Medicare Advantage and fee-for-service beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Financial incentives in capitated Medicare Advantage (MA) plans may lead to inadequate rehabilitation. We therefore investigated if MA enrollees had worse long-term physical performance and functional outcomes after rehabilitation. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries in the nationally representative National Health and Aging Trends Study. We compared MA and fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries reporting rehabilitation between 2014 and 2017 by change in (1) Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and (2) NHATS-derived Functional Independence Measure (FIM) from the previous year, using t-tests incorporating inverse-probability weighting and complex survey design. Secondary outcomes were self-reported: (1) improved function during rehabilitation, (2) worse function since rehabilitation ended, (3) meeting rehabilitation goals, and (4) meeting insurance limits. RESULTS: Among 738 MA and 1488 FFS participants, weighted mean age was 76 years (SD 7.0), 59% were female, and 9% had probable dementia. MA beneficiaries were more likely to be Black (9% vs. 6%) or Hispanic/other race (15% vs. 10%), be on Medicaid (14% vs. 10%), have lower income (median $35,000 vs. $48,000), and receive <1 month of rehabilitation (30% vs. 23%). MA beneficiaries had a similar decline in SPPB (-0.46 [SD 1.8] vs. -0.21 [SD 2.7], p-value 0.069) and adapted FIM (-1.05 [SD 3.7] vs. -1.13 [SD 5.45], p-value 0.764) compared to FFS. MA beneficiaries were less likely to report improved function during rehabilitation (61% [95% CI 56-67] vs. 70% [95% CI 67-74], p-value 0.006). Other outcomes and analyses restricted to inpatient rehabilitation participants were non-significant. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: MA enrollment was associated with lower likelihood of self-reported functional improvement during rehabilitation but no clinically or statistically significant differences in annual changes of physical performance or function. As MA expands, future studies must monitor implications on rehabilitation coverage and older adults' independence.

The Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment Among Medicare Beneficiaries Who Use Outpatient Physical Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment (including cognitive impairment no dementia [CIND] and dementia) among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who used outpatient physical therapy and to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment by measures that are relevant to rehabilitation practice. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis included 730 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the 2016 wave of the Health and Retirement Study with claims for outpatient physical therapy. Cognitive status, our primary variable of interest, was categorized as normal, CIND, or dementia using a validated approach, and population prevalence of cognitive impairment (CIND and dementia) was estimated by sociodemographic variables and Charlson comorbidity index score. Age-, gender- (man/woman), race-/ethnicity-adjusted population prevalence of CIND and dementia were also calculated for walking difficulty severity, presence of significant pain, self-reported fall history, moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) ≤1×/week, and sleep disturbance frequency using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Among Medicare beneficiaries with outpatient physical therapist claims, the prevalence of any cognitive impairment was 20.3% (CIND:15.2%, dementia:5.1%). Cognitive impairment was more prevalent among those who were older, Black, had lower education attainment, or higher Charlson comorbidity index scores. The adjusted population prevalence of cognitive impairment among those who reported difficulty walking across the room was 29.8%, difficulty walking 1 block was 25.9%, difficulty walking several blocks was 20.8%, and no difficulty walking was 16.3%. Additionally, prevalence of cognitive impairment among those with MVPA ≤1×/week was 27.1% and MVPA >1×/week was 14.1%. Cognitive impairment prevalence did not vary by significant pain, self-reported fall history, or sleep disturbance. CONCLUSION: One in 5 older adults who use outpatient physical therapist services have cognitive impairment. Furthermore, cognitive impairment is more common in older physical therapist patients who report worse physical function and less physical activity. IMPACT: Physical therapists should consider cognitive screening for vulnerable older adults to inform tailoring of clinical practice toward a patient's ability to remember and process rehabilitation recommendations.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment in home health physical therapy.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cognitive impairment in home health physical therapy (HHPT) is unknown. We sought to identify the prevalence of cognitive impairment, including cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia, among older adults who used HHPT, and if cognitive impairment prevalence was higher among those with HHPT-relevant characteristics. METHODS: For our cross-sectional analysis, we identified 963 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with HHPT claims (>85 years old: 28.8%, women: 63.7%, non-Hispanic White: 82.1%) in the 2014 and 2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and used a validated algorithm to categorize cognitive status as normal, CIND, or dementia. We estimated the population prevalence and calculated age, gender, race/ethnicity adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of CIND and dementia for characteristics relevant to HHPT service delivery including depression, walking difficulty, fall history, incontinence, moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) ≤1x/week, and community-initiated HHPT using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The population prevalence of cognitive impairment was 46.4% (CIND: 27.3%, dementia: 19.1%). The prevalence of cognitive impairment was greater among those with depression (46.7% vs. 39.5%), difficulty walking across the room (58.9% vs. 41.8%), fall history (49.1% vs. 42.9%), MVPA ≤1x/week (50.0% vs. 38.0%), and community-initiated HHPT (55.2% vs. 40.2%). Compared to normal cognitive status, the odds of cognitive impairment were greater for those with MVPA≤1x/week (CIND: aOR = 1.57 [95% CI: 1.05-2.33], dementia: aOR = 2.55 [95% CI: 1.54-4.22]), depression (dementia: aOR = 1.99 [95% CI: 1.19-3.30]), difficulty walking across the room (dementia: aOR = 2.54 [95% CI: 1.40-4.60]), fall history (dementia: aOR = 1.85 [95% CI: 1.20-2.83]), and community-initiated HHPT (dementia: aOR = 1.72 (95% CI: 1.13-2.61]). CONCLUSION: There is a high prevalence of CIND and dementia in HHPT, and no characteristics had a low prevalence of cognitive impairment. Physical therapists should be ready to identify cognitive impairment and adapt home health service delivery for this vulnerable population of older adults.

The Natural History of Disability and Caregiving Before and After Long-Term Care Entry.

Importance: Many older persons move into long-term care facilities (LTCFs) due to disability and insufficient home caregiving options. However, the extent of disability and caregiving provided around the time of entry is unknown. Objective: To quantitatively describe disability and caregiving before and after LTCF entry, comparing nursing home (NH), assisted living (AL), and independent living (IL) entrants. Design, Setting, and Participants: A longitudinal cohort study using prospectively collected annual data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study from 2011 to 2020 including participants in the continental US. Overall, 932 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries entering LTCF from 2011 to 2019 were included. Entry into LTCF was set as t = 0, and participant interviews from 4 years before and 2 years after were used. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of severe disability (severe difficulty or dependence in ≥3 activities of daily living), prevalence of caregivers, and median weekly caregiving hours per entrant, using weighted mixed-effects regression against time as linear spline. Results: At entry, mean (SD) age was 84 (8.4) years, 609 (64%, all percentages survey weighted) were women, 143 (6%) were Black, 29 (3%) were Hispanic, 30 (4%) were other (other race and ethnicity included American Indian, Asian, Native Hawaiian, and other), and 497 (49%) had dementia. 349 (34%) entered NH, 426 (45%) entered AL, and 157 (21%) entered IL. Overall, NH and AL entry were preceded by months of severe disability and escalating caregiving. Before entry, 49% (95% CI, 29%-68%) of NH entrants and 10% (95% CI, 3%-24%) of AL entrants had severe disability. Most (>97%) had at least a caregiver, but only one-third (NH, 33%; 95% CI, 20%-50%; AL, 33%; 95% CI, 24%-44%) had a paid caregiver. Median care was 27 hours weekly (95% CI, 18-40) in NH entrants and 18 (95% CI, 14-24) in AL entrants. On NH and AL entry, severe disability rose to 89% (95% CI, 82%-94%) and 28% (95% CI, 16%-44%) on NH and AL entry and was 66% (95% CI, 55%-75%) 2 years after entry in AL residents. Few IL entrants (<2%) had severe disability and their median care remained less than 7 hours weekly before and after entry. Conclusions: This study found that persons often enter NHs and ALs after months of severe disability and substantial help at home, usually from unpaid caregivers. Assisted living residents move when less disabled, but approach levels of disability similar to NH entrants within 2 years. Data may help clinicians understand when home supports approach a breaking point.

Health care utilization and costs in the years preceding dementia identification.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that health care utilization increases after incident dementia, particularly after dementia diagnosis and toward the end of life; however, less is known about utilization in the years before dementia identification. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we obtained data on n = 5547 beneficiaries from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)-Medicare linked sample (n = 1241 with and n = 4306 without dementia) to compare longitudinal trends in health care costs and utilization in the 6 years preceding dementia identification relative to a confounder-balanced reference group without dementia. RESULTS: We found that persons with dementia had a greater prevalence of outpatient emergency department (ED), inpatient hospital, skilled nursing, and home health use, and total health care costs in the years preceding dementia identification compared to their similar counterparts without dementia across a comparable timespan in later life. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to suggest greater healthcare burden may exist well before clinical manifestation and identification of dementia. HIGHLIGHTS: Several studies have documented the tremendous healthcare-related costs of living with dementia, particularly toward the end of life. Dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which, for some, includes a prolonged pre-clinical phase. However, health services research to date has seldom considered the time before incident dementia. This study documents that health care utilization and costs are significantly elevated in the years before incident dementia relative to a demographically-similar comparison group without dementia.

Heart failure with comorbid dementia: Association with clinical characteristics and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and dementia both have profound effects on function and mortality in older persons. However, we have limited knowledge about the impact of co-occurring HF and dementia. Our goal was to understand how often persons with HF have dementia and the impact of their co-occurrence. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of participants (age > 65) in the 2015 wave of the nationally representative Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) with linkage to Medicare claims. 912 participants with HF (45% older than 80, 51% women) using Medicare claims. We used the validated NHATS dementia algorithm to identify those with probable dementia. Outcomes of interest included the need for help with activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) at baseline, functional decline, hospitalization over 1 year, and mortality over 2-years. Baseline functional status, functional decline, and hospitalization were compared using adjusted logistic regression, mortality was analyzed using adjusted Cox regression models adjusted for demographics, socio-economic status, baseline health, and baseline functional status. RESULTS: 200 (21%) of the participants with HF also had dementia. For each I/ADL, patients with both HF and dementia were more likely to need help than those with HF without dementia. 71.8% of participants with HF and dementia needed help with medications versus 16.6% with HF without dementia (p < 0.001). Having HF and dementia was associated with an increased risk of requiring help with additional ADLs after one year (aOR = 2.69, 95% CI 1.53, 4.73). Participants with HF and dementia had an increased risk of being hospitalized within one year (aOR = 2.02 95% CI 1.16, 3.54), or dying within two years (aHR = 1.52 95% CI 1.03, 2.26). CONCLUSIONS: One-fifth of persons over age 65 with HF also have comorbid dementia. Co-occurring HF and dementia markedly increase functional impairment and subsequent ADL decline, hospitalization, and death. These results highlight the need for physician awareness for signs of dementia, and appropriate adjustments in the management of HF.

Development and applicability of a risk assessment tool for hospital-acquired mobility impairment in ambulatory older adults.

BACKGROUND: Mobility loss is common in hospitalized older adults, and resources to prevent mobility impairment are finite. Our goal was to use routinely collected data to develop a risk assessment tool that identifies individuals at risk of losing the ability to walk during hospitalization on the first hospital day. Second, we determined if the tool could inform the use of mobility-preserving interventions. METHODS: We included patients admitted to a general medical service, aged ≥65 years, who walked occasionally or frequently on admission (Braden Scale Activity subset > = 3). Patients were considered to have a new mobility impairment if, at discharge, their ability to walk was severely limited or nonexistent or they were confined to bed (Braden Scale Activity subset <3). We used predictors available on the first hospital day to develop (2017-18 cohort) and validate (2019 cohort) a risk assessment tool. We determined the association between predicted risk and therapy use in the validation cohort to highlight the model's clinical utility. RESULTS: 5542 patients were included (median age 76 years, 48% women); 7.6% were discharged unable to walk. The model included 5 predictors: age, medication administrations, Glasgow Coma Scale verbal score, serum albumin, and urinary catheter presence. In the validation cohort, the model discriminated well (c-statistic 0.75) and was strongly associated with hospital-acquired mobility impairment (lowest decile 1%, highest decile 25%). In the validation cohort, therapy consultation ordering increased linearly with predicted risk; however, observed mobility impairment increased exponentially. CONCLUSION: The tool assesses the risk of mobility impairment in all ambulatory hospitalized older adults on the first hospital day. Further, it identifies at-risk older adults who may benefit from mobility interventions.

Frequency and implications of coexistent manifestations of serious illness in older adults with dementia.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, serious illness comprises three manifestations: dementia, activity of daily living (ADL) impairment, and other advanced medical conditions (AMC; e.g., end-stage renal disease). Little is known about how dementia and other manifestations of serious illness co-occur. We aim to describe the prevalence of persons with dementia (PWD) who are living with additional manifestations of serious illness, and the implications on healthcare utilization, Medicare costs, caregiving hours and out-of-pocket expenses. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we use data from the 2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims. We limited inclusion to adults >65 years. Dementia was determined using validated methodology that incorporates functional and cognitive test scores from HRS. We classified PWD as having dementia alone, dementia and an AMC (irrespective of ADL impairment) or dementia and ADL impairment (without an AMC). Healthcare utilization and Medicare costs were measured in claims, caregiving hours and out-of-pocket expenses were self-reported. RESULTS: Most PWD (67%) met criteria for another manifestation of serious illness (24% advanced medical condition, 44% ADL impairment). PWD and an AMC had the highest proportion of hospital use and the highest median total Medicare costs ($17,900 vs. $8962 dementia + ADL impairment vs. $4376 dementia alone). Mean total hours of caregiving per month were similar for PWD and an AMC and PWD and ADL impairment (142.9 and 141.9 h, respectively), while mean hours were much lower for PWD alone (47.7 h). Median out-of-pocket costs were highest for PWD and ADL impairment ($13,261) followed by PWD and an AMC ($10,837) and PWD alone ($7017). CONCLUSIONS: PWD commonly face another manifestation of serious illness. Dementia and ADL impairment was associated with the highest costs for PWD and families while dementia and an AMC was associated with the highest costs for Medicare.

High Risk of Substance Use Disorder-Related Outcomes in Veterans Released from Correctional Facilities in Mid to Late Life.

BACKGROUND: Veterans Affairs (VA) is likely to encounter a growing number of veterans returning to the community in mid to late life following incarceration (i.e., experiencing reentry). Yet, rates of negative health outcomes due to substance use disorders (SUDs) in this population are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of and risk factors for SUD-related emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations (ED/IPH) and overdose death among older reentry veterans compared with never-incarcerated veterans. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using national VA and Medicare healthcare systems data. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans age ≥50, incarcerated for ≤5 consecutive years, and released between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2017 (N = 18,803), were propensity score-matched 1:5 with never-incarcerated veterans (N = 94,015) on demographic characteristics, reason for Medicare eligibility, and SUD history. MAIN MEASURES: SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) were obtained from in-/outpatient VA health services and CMS data within the year following release date/index date (through September 30, 2018). Overdose death within 1 year was identified using the National Mortality Data Repository. Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression compared risk of SUD-related ED/IPH and overdose death between the two groups. RESULTS: The number of SUD-related ED/IPHs and overdose deaths was 2470 (13.1%) and 72 (0.38%) in the reentry sample versus 4402 (4.7%) and 198 (0.21%) in the never-incarcerated sample, respectively. Mid-to-late-life reentry was associated with higher risk of any SUD-related ED/IPH (13,136.2 vs. 2252.8 per 100,000/year; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.08, 2.30) and overdose death (382.9 vs. 210.6 per 100,000/year; AHR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.63, 3.08). CONCLUSIONS: Older reentry veterans have more than double the risk of experiencing SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) and overdose death, even after accounting for SUD history and other likely confounders. These findings highlight the vulnerability of this population. Improved knowledge regarding SUD-related negative health outcomes may help to tailor VA reentry programming.

Association of Frailty With Risk of Suicide Attempt in a National Cohort of US Veterans Aged 65 Years or Older.

Importance: Frailty is associated with reduced physiological reserve, lack of independence, and depression and may be salient for identifying older adults at increased risk of suicide attempt. Objectives: To examine the association between frailty and risk of suicide attempt and how risk differs based on components of frailty. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cohort study integrated databases from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) inpatient and outpatient health care services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data, and national suicide data. Participants included all US veterans aged 65 years or older who received care at VA medical centers from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2013. Data were analyzed from April 20, 2021, to May 31, 2022. Exposures: Frailty, defined based on a validated cumulative-deficit frailty index measured using electronic health data and categorized into 5 levels: nonfrailty, prefrailty, mild frailty, moderate frailty, and severe frailty. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was suicide attempts through December 31, 2017, provided by the national Suicide Prevention Applications Network (nonfatal attempts) and Mortality Data Repository (fatal attempts). Frailty level and components of the frailty index (morbidity, function, sensory loss, cognition and mood, and other) were assessed as potential factors associated with suicide attempt. Results: The study population of 2 858 876 participants included 8955 (0.3%) who attempted suicide over 6 years. Among all participants, the mean (SD) age was 75.4 (8.1) years; 97.7% were men, 2.3% were women, 0.6% were Hispanic, 9.0% were non-Hispanic Black, 87.8% were non-Hispanic White, and 2.6% had other or unknown race and ethnicity. Compared with patients without frailty, risk of suicide attempt was uniformly higher among patients with prefrailty to severe frailty, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 1.34 (95% CI, 1.27-1.42; P < .001) for prefrailty, 1.44 (95% CI, 1.35-1.54; P < .001) for mild frailty, 1.48 (95% CI, 1.36-1.60; P < .001) for moderate frailty, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.29-1.56; P < .001) for severe frailty. Lower levels of frailty were associated with greater risk of lethal suicide attempt (aHR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12-1.28] for prefrail veterans). Bipolar disorder (aHR, 2.69; 95% CI, 2.54-2.86), depression (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.67-1.87), anxiety (aHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), chronic pain (aHR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.15-1.29), use of durable medical equipment (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.25), and lung disease (aHR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.17) were independently associated with increased risk of suicide attempt. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that among US veterans aged 65 years or older, frailty was associated with increased risk of suicide attempts and lower levels of frailty were associated with greater risk of suicide death. Screening and involvement of supportive services across the spectrum of frailty appear to be needed to help reduce risk of suicide attempts.

The devil's in the details: Variation in estimates of late-life activity limitations across national cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Assessing activity limitations is central to aging research. However, assessments of activity limitations vary, and this may have implications for the populations identified. We aim to compare measures of activities of daily living (ADLs) and their resulting prevalence and mortality across three nationally-representative cohort studies: the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). METHODS: We compared the phrasing and context of questions around help and difficulty with six self-care activities: eating, bathing, toileting, dressing, walking inside, and transferring. We then compared the prevalence and 1-year mortality for difficulty and help with eating and dressing. RESULTS: NHATS, HRS, and MCBS varied widely in phrasing and framing of questions around activity limitations, impacting the proportion of the population found to experience difficulty or receive help. For example, in NHATS 12.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 11.5%-13.4%] of the cohort received help with dressing, while in HRS this figure was 6.4% [95% CI 5.7%-7.2%] and MCBS 5.3% [95% CI 4.7%-5.8%]. When combined with variation in sampling frame and survey approach of each survey, such differences resulted in large variation in estimates of the older population of older adults with ADL disability. CONCLUSIONS: In order to take late-life activity limitations seriously, we must clearly define the measures we use. Further, researchers and clinicians seeking to understand the experience of older adults with activity limitations should be careful to interpret findings in light of the framing of the question asked.

Development and validation of novel multimorbidity indices for older adults.

BACKGROUND: Measuring multimorbidity in claims data is used for risk adjustment and identifying populations at high risk for adverse events. Multimorbidity indices such as Charlson and Elixhauser scores have important limitations. We sought to create a better method of measuring multimorbidity using claims data by incorporating geriatric conditions, markers of disease severity, and disease-disease interactions, and by tailoring measures to different outcomes. METHODS: Health conditions were assessed using Medicare inpatient and outpatient claims from subjects age 67 and older in the Health and Retirement Study. Separate indices were developed for ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death, each over 2 years of follow-up. We validated these indices using data from Medicare claims linked to the National Health and Aging Trends Study. RESULTS: The development cohort included 5012 subjects with median age 76 years; 58% were female. Claims-based markers of disease severity and disease-disease interactions yielded minimal gains in predictive power and were not included in the final indices. In the validation cohort, after adjusting for age and sex, c-statistics for the new multimorbidity indices were 0.72 for ADL decline, 0.69 for IADL decline, 0.72 for hospitalization, and 0.77 for death. These c-statistics were 0.02-0.03 higher than c-statistics from Charlson and Elixhauser indices for predicting ADL decline, IADL decline, and hospitalization, and <0.01 higher for death (p < 0.05 for each outcome except death), and were similar to those from the CMS-HCC model. On decision curve analysis, the new indices provided minimal benefit compared with legacy approaches. C-statistics for both new and legacy indices varied substantially across derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A new series of claims-based multimorbidity measures were modestly better at predicting hospitalization and functional decline than several legacy indices, and no better at predicting death. There may be limited opportunity in claims data to measure multimorbidity better than older methods.

Functional and clinical needs of older hospice enrollees with coexisting dementia.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare Hospice Benefit increasingly serves people dying with dementia. We sought to understand characteristics, hospice use patterns, and last-month-of-life care quality ratings among hospice enrollees with dementia coexisting with another terminal illness as compared to enrollees with a principal hospice diagnosis of dementia, and enrollees with no dementia. METHODS: We conducted a pooled cross-sectional study among decedent Medicare beneficiaries age 70+ using longitudinal data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) (last interview before death; after-death proxy interview) linked to Medicare hospice claims (2011-2017). We used unadjusted and adjusted regression analyses to compare characteristics of hospice enrollees with coexisting dementia to two groups: (1) enrollees with a principal dementia diagnosis, and (2) enrollees with no dementia. RESULTS: Among 1105 decedent hospice enrollees age 70+, 40% had coexisting dementia, 16% had a principal diagnosis of dementia, and 44% had no dementia. In adjusted analyses, enrollees with coexisting dementia had high rates of needing help with 3-6 activities of daily living, similar to enrollees with principal dementia (62% vs. 67%). Enrollees with coexisting dementia had high clinical needs, similar to those with no dementia, for example, 63% versus 61% had bothersome pain. Care quality was worse for enrollees with coexisting dementia versus principal dementia (e.g., 61% vs. 79% had anxiety/sadness managed) and similar to those with no dementia. Enrollees with coexisting dementia had similar hospice use patterns as those with principal diagnoses and higher rates of problematic use patterns compared to those with no dementia (e.g., 16% vs. 10% live disenrollment, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: People with coexisting dementia have functional needs comparable to enrollees with principal diagnoses of dementia, and clinical needs comparable to enrollees with no dementia. Changes to hospice care models and policy may be needed to ensure appropriate dementia care.

Functional and cognitive outcomes after suprapubic catheter placement in nursing home residents: A national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term functional and cognitive outcomes in nursing home residents after procedures are poorly understood. Our objective was to evaluate these outcomes after suprapubic tube (SPT) placement. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, cohort study in the nursing home setting. Participants were long-term nursing home residents who underwent SPT placement from 2014 to 2016 in the United States. SPT placements were identified in Medicare Inpatient, Outpatient, and Carrier files using International Classification of Diseases and Current Procedural Terminology codes. Residents were identified through the Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0 for Nursing Home Residents. MDS Activities of Daily Living (MDS-ADL) and Brief Interview for Mental Status (BIMS) scores were used to assess function and cognition, respectively. Outcomes of interest were worsening MDS-ADL and BIMS scores at 1 year postoperatively, 30-day postoperative complications, and 1-year mortality. Functional and cognitive trajectories were modeled to 1 year postoperatively using mixed-effect spline models. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2016, 9647 residents with a mean age of 80.9 (SD 8.1) years underwent SPT placement. At 1 year postoperatively, 37.6% of residents died, while of survivors, 33.7% had worsening MDS-ADL and 36.2% worsened BIMS. Residents had steeper postoperative rates of functional decline compared to relatively stable preoperative trends that never recovered to baseline status. However, robustly characterizing an association between SPT placement and functional decline would require a propensity score matched cohort without SPT placement. Decline in cognitive status was not clearly associated with SPT placement, suggesting either the natural course of a vulnerable population or limitations of BIMS scores. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes important to older adults, such as functional ability and cognitive status, do not show improvement after SPT placement. These findings emphasize that this "minor" procedure should be considered with caution in this population and primarily for palliation.

Long-term functional outcomes and mortality after hospitalization for extracranial hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: The effects of extracranial hemorrhage (ECH), or bleeding outside the brain, are often considered transient. Yet, there are few data on the long-term and functional consequences of ECH. OBJECTIVE: Define the association of ECH hospitalization with functional independence and survival in a nationally representative cohort of older adults. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1995 to 2016, a nationally representative, biennial survey of older adults. Adults aged 66 and above with Medicare linkage and at least 12 months of continuous Medicare Part A and B enrollment. INTERVENTION: Hospitalization for ECH. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted odds ratios and predicted likelihood of independence in all activities of daily living (ADLs), independence in all instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and extended nursing home stay. Adjusted hazard ratio and predicted likelihood for survival. RESULTS: In a cohort of 6719 subjects (mean age 77, 59% women) with average follow-up time of 8.3 years (55,767 person-years), 736 (11%) were hospitalized for ECH. ECH was associated with a 15% increase in ADL disability, 15% increase in IADL disability, 8% increase in nursing home stays, and 4% increase in mortality. After ECH, subjects became disabled and died at the same annual rate as pre-ECH but never recovered to pre-ECH levels of function. In conclusion, hospitalization for ECH was associated with significant and durable declines in independence and survival. Clinical and research efforts should incorporate the long-term harms of ECH into decision-making and strategies to mitigate these effects.

Frailty Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Complications and Need for Repeat Procedures after Sling Surgery in Older Adults.

PURPOSE: Sling surgery is the gold standard treatment for stress urinary incontinence in women. While data support the use of sling surgery in younger and middle-aged women, outcomes in older, frail women are largely unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were examined for all Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years old who underwent sling surgery with or without concomitant prolapse repair from 2014 to 2016. Beneficiaries were stratified using the Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI) into 4 categories: not frail (CFI <0.15), prefrail (0.15 ≤CFI <0.25), mildly frail (0.25 ≤CFI <0.35) and moderately to severely frail (CFI ≥0.35). Outcomes included rates and relative risk of 30-day complications, 1-year mortality and repeat procedures for persistent incontinence or obstructed voiding at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 54,112 women underwent sling surgery during the study period, 5.2% of whom were mildly to moderately to severely frail. Compared to the not frail group, moderately to severely frail beneficiaries demonstrated an increased adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 30-day complications (56.5%; aRR 2.5, 95% CI: 2.2-2.9) and 1-year mortality (10.5%; aRR 6.7, 95% CI: 4.0-11.2). Additionally, there were higher rates of repeat procedures in mildly to severely frail beneficiaries (6.6%; aRR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6) compared to beneficiaries who were not frail. CONCLUSIONS: As frailty increased, there was an increased relative risk of 30-day complications, 1-year mortality and need for repeat procedures for persistent incontinence or obstructed voiding at 1 year. While there were fewer sling surgeries in performed frail women, the observed increase in complication rates was significant. Frailty should be strongly considered before pursuing sling surgery in older women.

Association of Social Support With Functional Outcomes in Older Adults Who Live Alone.

Importance: Older adults who live alone are at risk for poor health outcomes. Whether social support mitigates the risk of living alone, particularly when facing a sudden change in health, has not been adequately reported. Objective: To assess if identifiable support buffers the vulnerability of a health shock while living alone. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this longitudinal, prospective, nationally representative cohort study from the Health and Retirement Study (enrollment March 2006 to April 2015), 4772 community-dwelling older adults 65 years or older who lived alone in the community and could complete activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADLs independently were followed up biennially through April 2018. Statistical analysis was completed from May 2020 to March 2021. Exposures: Identifiable support (ie, can the participant identify a relative/friend who could help with personal care if needed), health shock (ie, hospitalization, new diagnosis of cancer, stroke, heart attack), and interaction (multiplicative and additive) between the 2 exposures. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were incident ADL dependency, prolonged nursing home stay (≥30 days), and death. Results: Of 4772 older adults (median [IQR] age, 73 [68-81] years; 3398 [71%] women) who lived alone, at baseline, 1813 (38%) could not identify support, and 3013 (63%) experienced a health shock during the study. Support was associated with a lower risk of a prolonged nursing home stay at 2 years (predicted probability, 6.7% vs 5.2%; P = .002). Absent a health shock, support was not associated with a prolonged nursing home stay (predicted probability over 2 years, 1.9% vs 1.4%; P = .21). However, in the presence of a health shock, support was associated with a lower risk of a prolonged nursing home stay (predicted probability over 2 years, 14.2% vs 10.9%; P = .002). Support was not associated with incident ADL dependence or death. Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cohort study among older adults who live alone, identifiable support was associated with a lower risk of a prolonged nursing home stay in the setting of a health shock.

Assessment of Frailty and Association With Progression of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Symptoms and Serious Adverse Events Among Men Using Drug Therapy.

Importance: Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in older men can cause lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), which are increasingly managed with medications. Frailty may contribute to both symptom progression and serious adverse events (SAEs), shifting the balance of benefits and harms of drug therapy. Objective: To assess the association between a deficit accumulation frailty index and clinical BPH progression or SAE. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms trial, which compared placebo, doxazosin, finasteride, and combination therapy in men with moderate-to-severe LUTS, reduced urinary flow rate, and no prior BPH interventions, hypotension, or elevated prostate-specific antigen. Enrollment was from 1995 to 1998, and follow-up was through 2001. Data were assessed in February 2021. Exposures: A frailty index (score range, 0-1) using 68 potential deficits collected at baseline was used to categorized men as robust (score ≤0.1), prefrail (score 0.1 to <0.25), or frail (score ≥0.25). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were time to clinical BPH progression and time to SAE, as defined in the parent trial. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regressions adjusted for demographic variables, treatment group, measures of obstruction, and comorbidities. Results: Among 3047 men (mean [SD] age, 62.6 [7.3] years; range, 50-89 years) in this analysis, 745 (24%) were robust, 1824 (60%) were prefrail, and 478 (16%) were frail at baseline. Compared with robust men, frail men were older (age ≥75 years, 12 men [2%] vs 62 men [13%]), less likely to be White (646 men [87%] vs 344 men [72%]), less likely to be married (599 men [80%] vs 342 men [72%]), and less likely to have 16 years or more of education (471 men [63%] vs 150 men [31%]). During mean (SD) follow-up of 4.0 (1.5) years, the incidence rate of clinical BPH progression was 2.2 events per 100 person-years among robust men, 2.9 events per 100 person-years among prefrail men (AHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.83), and 4.0 events per 100 person-years among frail men (AHR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.24-2.67; linear P = .005). Larger point estimates were seen among men who received doxazosin or combination therapy, although the test for interaction between frailty index and treatment group did not reach statistical significance (P for interaction = .06). Risk of SAE was higher among prefrail and frail men (prefrail vs robust AHR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.48-2.23; frail vs robust AHR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.21-3.69; linear P < .001); this association was similar across treatment groups (P for interaction = .76). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that frailty is independently associated with greater risk of both clinical BPH progression and SAEs. Older frail men with BPH considering initiation of drug therapy should be counseled regarding their higher risk of progression despite combination therapy and their likelihood of experiencing SAEs regardless of treatment choice.