Home-Based Walking Exercise and Supervised Treadmill Exercise in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Few people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) participate in supervised treadmill exercise covered by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In people with PAD, the benefits of home-based walking exercise, relative to supervised exercise, remain unclear. Objective: To study whether home-based walking exercise improves 6-minute walk (6MW) more than supervised treadmill exercise in people with PAD (defined as Ankle Brachial Index ≤0.90). Data Sources: Data were combined from 5 randomized clinical trials of exercise therapy for PAD using individual participant data meta-analyses, published from 2009 to 2022. Study Selection: Of the 5 clinical trials, 3 clinical trials compared supervised treadmill exercise to nonexercise control (N = 370) and 2 clinical trials compared an effective home-based walking exercise intervention to nonexercise control (N = 349). Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant-level data from 5 randomized clinical trials led by 1 investigative team were combined. The 5 randomized clinical trials included 3 clinical trials of supervised treadmill exercise and 2 effective home-based walking exercise interventions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change in 6MW distance, maximum treadmill walking distance, and Walking Impairment Questionnaire at 6-month follow-up. The supervised treadmill exercise intervention consisted of treadmill exercise in the presence of an exercise physiologist, conducted 3 days weekly for up to 50 minutes per session. Home-based walking exercise consisted of a behavioral intervention in which a coach helped participants walk for exercise in or around home for up to 5 days per week for 50 minutes per session. Results: A total of 719 participants with PAD (mean [SD] age, 68.8 [9.5] years; 46.5% female) were included (349 in a home-based exercise clinical trial and 370 in a supervised exercise trial). Compared with nonexercise control, supervised treadmill exercise was associated with significantly improved 6MW by 32.9 m (95% CI, 20.6-45.6; P < .001) and home-based walking exercise was associated with significantly improved 6MW by 50.7 m (95% CI, 34.8-66.7; P < .001). Compared with supervised treadmill exercise, home-based walking exercise was associated with significantly greater improvement in 6MW distance (between-group difference: 23.8 m [95% CI, 3.6, 44.0; P = .02]) but significantly less improvement in maximum treadmill walking distance (between-group difference:-132.5 m [95% CI, -192.9 to -72.1; P < .001]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this individual participant data meta-analyses, compared with supervised exercise, home-based walking exercise was associated with greater improvement in 6MW in people with PAD. These findings support home-based walking exercise as a first-line therapy for walking limitations in PAD.

Barriers to participation in supervised exercise therapy reported by people with peripheral artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study identified barriers to participation in supervised exercise therapy covered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), reported by people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). METHODS: People with PAD participating in research studies of walking impairment due to PAD in the Chicagoland area were asked to complete a questionnaire between March 15, 2019, and July 12, 2022, assessing their experience and attitudes about supervised exercise therapy. Participants were identified using mailed postcards to people aged 50 and older in Chicagoland, from medical centers in Chicago, and using bus and train advertisements. The questionnaire was developed based on focus group feedback from people with PAD. RESULTS: Of 516 participants with PAD approached, 489 (94.8%) completed the questionnaire (mean age: 71.0 years [standard deviation: 8.7], mean ankle-brachial index: 0.71 [standard deviation: 0.25]; 204 [41.7%] women and 261 [53.4%] Black). Of the 489 participants, 416 (85.1%) reported that their physician had never prescribed or recommended supervised exercise therapy. Overall, 357 (73.2%) reported willingness to travel three times weekly to the medical center for supervised exercise participation. However, of these, 214 (59.9%) reported that they were unwilling or unable to pay the $11 per exercise session copay required for supervised exercise covered by CMS. Of 51 people with PAD who reported prior participation in supervised exercise, only 5 (9.8%) completed the 12 weeks of supervised exercise therapy covered by CMS and 29 (56.9%) completed 6 or fewer weeks. Of 131 (26.8%) unwilling to travel three times weekly to a center for supervised exercise, the most common reasons for unwillingness to participate were "too time-consuming" (55.0%), "too inconvenient" (45.8%), and "lack of interest in treadmill exercise" (28.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 2 to 4 years after CMS began covering supervised exercise for PAD, most people with PAD in this study from a large urban area had not participated in supervised exercise therapy. Of those who participated, most completed fewer than half of the sessions covered by CMS. The required CMS copayment was a common barrier to supervised exercise participation by people with PAD.

Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: Contemporary Epidemiology, Management Gaps, and Future Directions: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects >230 million adults worldwide and is associated with increased risk of various adverse clinical outcomes (other cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease and stroke and leg outcomes such as amputation). Despite its prevalence and clinical importance, PAD has been historically underappreciated by health care professionals and patients. This underappreciation seems multifactorial (eg, limited availability of the first-line diagnostic test, the ankle-brachial index, in clinics; incorrect perceptions that a leg vascular disease is not fatal and that the diagnosis of PAD would not necessarily change clinical practice). In the past several years, a body of evidence has indicated that these perceptions are incorrect. Several studies have consistently demonstrated that many patients with PAD are not receiving evidence-based therapies. Thus, this scientific statement provides an update for health care professionals regarding contemporary epidemiology (eg, prevalence, temporal trends, risk factors, and complications) of PAD, the present status of diagnosis (physiological tests and imaging modalities), and the major gaps in the management of PAD (eg, medications, exercise therapy, and revascularization). The statement also lists key gaps in research, clinical practice, and implementation related to PAD. Orchestrated efforts among different parties (eg, health care providers, researchers, expert organizations, and health care organizations) will be needed to increase the awareness and understanding of PAD and improve the diagnostic approaches, management, and prognosis of PAD.

Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

Importance: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. Objective: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Exposures: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. Main Outcome and Measure: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. Results: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (-29.1% [95% UI, -32.4% to -25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (-38.5% [95% UI, -43.1% to -34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (-44.8% [95% UI, -47.3% to -42.3%]), deaths (-64.4% [95% UI, -67.7% to -50.3%]), and DALYs (-66.9% [95% UI, -70.1% to -55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (-25.8% [95% UI, -30.7% to -5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Conclusions and Relevance: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Life's Simple 7 and Peripheral Artery Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the American Heart Association initiated Life's Simple 7 with the goal of significantly improving cardiovascular health by the year 2020. The association of Life's Simple 7 with risk of peripheral artery disease has not been thoroughly explored. METHODS: Racially diverse individuals from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2012) were followed for incident peripheral artery disease (ankle brachial index ≤0.90) and decline in ankle brachial index (≥0.15) over approximately 10 years of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression were used to assess associations of individual Life's Simple 7 components (score 0-2) and overall Life's Simple 7 score (score 0-14) with incident peripheral artery disease and ankle brachial index decline, respectively, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. Analyses were performed in 2016-2018. RESULTS: Of 5,529 participants, 251 (4.5%) developed incident peripheral artery disease; 419 (9.8%) of 4,267 participants experienced a decline in ankle brachial index. Each point higher for the overall Life's Simple 7 score was associated with a 17% lower rate of incident peripheral artery disease (hazard ratio=0.83, 95% CI=0.78, 0.88, p<0.001). Additionally, each point higher in overall Life's Simple 7 was associated with a 0.94-fold lower odds of decline in ankle brachial index (OR=0.94, 95% CI=0.87, 0.97, p=0.003). Four components (smoking, physical activity, glucose, and blood pressure) were associated with incident peripheral artery disease and two (smoking and glucose) with decline in ankle brachial index. CONCLUSIONS: Better cardiovascular health as measured by Life's Simple 7 is associated with lower incidence of peripheral artery disease and less decline in ankle brachial index. Use of the Life's Simple 7 to target modifiable health behaviors may aid in decreasing the population burden of peripheral artery disease-related morbidity and mortality.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Race/ethnic and sex disparities in the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-abdominal aortic calcification association: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study investigated the associations of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) volume and density, and whether these relationships vary by race/ethnicity and/or sex, information that are limited in current literature. METHODS: We studied 1004 adults from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to assess the relationship between NAFLD (liver-to-spleen ratio <1) and the following measures of AAC: presence (volume score >0, using Poisson regression); change in volume score (increasing vs. no change, using Poisson regression); and morphology (volume and density score, where volume score >0, using linear regression); and interaction by race/ethnicity and sex. RESULTS: Among Blacks, those with NAFLD had greater prevalence for AAC compared to Whites regardless of sex (Prevalence Ratio [PR] = 1.41, CI = 1.15-1.74, p-interaction = 0.02). Concurrent interaction by race/ethnicity and sex was found comparing Chinese and Blacks to Whites (p-interaction = 0.017 and 0.042, respectively) in the association between NAFLD and the prevalence of increasing AAC. Among women, this relationship was inverse among Chinese (PR = 0.59, CI = 0.28-1.27), and positive among Whites (PR = 1.34, CI = 1.02-1.76). This finding was reversed evaluating the men counterpart. Black men also had a positive association (PR = 1.86, CI = 1.29-2.70), which differed from the inverse relationship among White men, and was greater compared to Black women (PR = 1.45, CI = 1.09-1.94). NAFLD was unrelated to AAC morphology. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD was related to the presence of AAC, however, limited to Blacks. Significant concurrent interaction by race/ethnicity (Chinese and Blacks vs. Whites) and sex was found in the relationship between NAFLD and increasing AAC. These findings suggest disparities in the pathophysiologic pathways in which atherosclerosis develops.

Associations of cardiovascular disease risk factors with abdominal aortic calcium volume and density: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) predicts future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality independent of CVD risk factors. The standard AAC score, the Agatston, up-weights for greater calcium density, and thus models higher calcium density as associated with increased CVD risk. We determined associations of CVD risk factors with AAC volume and density (separately). METHODS: In a multi-ethnic cohort of community living adults, we used abdominal computed tomography scans to measure AAC volume and density. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine the period cross-sectional independent associations of CVD risk factors with AAC volume and AAC density in participants with prevalent AAC. RESULTS: Among 1413 participants with non-zero AAC scores, the mean age was 65 ± 9 years, 52% were men, 44% were European-, 24% were Hispanic-, 18% were African-, and 14% were Chinese Americans (EA, HA, AA, and CA respectively). Median (interquartile range, IQR) for AAC volume was 628 mm3 (157-1939 mm3), and mean AAC density was 3.0 ± 0.6. Compared to EA, each of HA, AA, and CA had lower natural log (ln) AAC volume, but higher AAC density. After adjustments for AAC density, older age, ever smoking history, higher systolic blood pressure, elevated total cholesterol, reduced HDL cholesterol, statin and anti-hypertensive medication use, family history of myocardial infarction, and alcohol consumption were significantly associated with higher ln(AAC volume). In contrast, after adjustments for ln(AAC volume), older age, ever smoking history, higher BMI, and lower HDL cholesterol were significantly associated with lower AAC density. CONCLUSIONS: Several CVD risk factors were associated with higher AAC volume, but lower AAC density. Future studies should investigate the impact of calcium density of aortic plaques in CVD.

Ankle-brachial index predicts change over time in functional status in the San Diego Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects millions of people, both in the U.S. and worldwide. Even when asymptomatic, PAD and the ankle-brachial index (ABI), the major clinical diagnostic criterion for PAD, are associated with decreased functional status and quality of life, as well as mobility impairment. Whether the ABI or change in the ABI predicts decline in functional status over time has not been previously assessed in a population-based setting. METHODS: Participants were 812 non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Asian men and women from the San Diego Population Study (SDPS) who attended a baseline examination (1994-1998), and follow-up clinic examination approximately 11 years later. The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) was obtained at both the baseline and follow-up examinations, and the summary performance score (SPS) at the follow-up examination. Associations of the baseline ABI and clinically relevant change in the ABI (<-0.15 vs ≥-0.15) with change in SF-36 scores over time were assessed using growth curve models, a type of mixed model that accounts for within participant correlation of measurements over time, and using linear regression for SPS. Models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, ever smoking, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia. RESULTS: Mean ± standard deviation (SD) for the baseline ABI was 1.11 ± 0.10, and 50.8 ± 9.0 for the baseline Physical Component Score (PCS), 50.1 ± 9.5 for the baseline Mental Component Score (MCS), and 11.2 ± 1.9 for the SPS at the follow-up examination. In fully adjusted models, each SD lower of the baseline ABI was significantly associated with an average decrease over time of 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to -0.1; P = .02) units on SF-36 PCS. Each SD lower of the baseline ABI was also significantly associated with an average decrease over time of 1.2 units (95% CI, -2.3 to -0.2; P = .02) on the SF-36 physical functioning subscale, and a decrease of 1.3 units (95% CI, -2.3 to -0.3; P = .01) on the SF-36 energy/vitality subscale in fully adjusted models. Baseline ABI was not significantly associated with change in the SF-36 MCS over time, or the SPS at the follow-up examination. Change in the ABI was not associated with SF-36 PCS, MCS, or the SPS. CONCLUSIONS: In this multiethnic population of healthy middle-aged community-living men and women, we showed that participants with a lower baseline ABI had declines in functional status over 11 years. Findings suggest that small differences in the ABI, even within the normal range, may identify subclinical lower extremity PAD, which in turn may help to identify individuals at risk for declining functional status with age.

Serial measurement of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin T for cardiovascular disease risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (TnT) predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a variety of populations. Whether their predictive value varies by ethnicity is unknown. We sought to determine whether NT-proBNP and TnT improve prediction of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD, independent of CVD risk factors, in a multiethnic population; whether NT-proBNP improves prediction compared with the Framingham Risk Score or the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation; and whether a second NT-proBNP further improves prediction. METHODS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT were measured in 5,592 MESA white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese participants (60% nonwhite; mean age 62.3 ± 10.3 years) in 2000 to 2002 and 2004 to 2005. We evaluated adjusted risk of incident CHD and CVD based on baseline and change in biomarker concentration. RESULTS: Participants were followed up through 2011 and incurred 370 CVD events (232 CHD). Concentrations of NT-proBNP and TnT varied by ethnicity. Both NT-proBNP and TnT were associated with an increased risk of events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CHD [95% CI] for fifth quintile vs other 4 quintiles of NT-proBNP, 2.03 [1.50-2.76]; HR for CHD for detectable vs undetectable TnT, 3.95 [2.29-6.81]). N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide improved risk prediction and classification compared with the Framingham Risk Score and the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation. Change in NT-proBNP was independently associated with events (HR for CHD per unit increase in ΔlogNT-proBNP, 1.95 [1.16-3.26]). None of the observed associations varied by ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT are predictors of incident CHD, independent of established risk factors and ethnicity, in a multiethnic population without known CVD. Change in NT-proBNP may add additional prognostic information.

Global and regional burden of death and disability from peripheral artery disease: 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010.

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of disability and mortality due to lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is lacking. Therefore, we estimated PAD deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Diseases 2010) study causes of death database, and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of PAD deaths and years of life lost over time, by age, sex, and region. Assessment of DALYs employed estimates of PAD prevalence from systematic reviews of epidemiologic data using a Bayesian meta-regression method. In 1990, the age-specific PAD death rate per 100,000 population ranged from 0.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03 to 0.09) among those 40 to 44 years old to 16.63 (95% CI: 10.47 to 25.31) among the 80+ years group. In 2010, the corresponding estimates were 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.13) and 28.71 (95% CI: 18.3 to 43.06). Death rates increased consistently with age in 1990 and 2010, and the rates in 2010 were higher than they were in 1990 in all age categories. The largest relative change in median death rate of +6.03 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.50 to 11.85) was noted in the Asia Pacific-High Income region and was largely driven by higher rates in women: +17.36 (95% CI: 1.79 to 32.01) versus +1.25 (95% CI: 0.13 to 2.39) in men. The overall relative change in median DALYs was larger in developing nations than in developed nations: 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80 to 1.66) versus 0.77 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.08). Of note, the overall relative change in median DALYs was higher among both men and women in developing versus developed countries: men: 1.18 (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.65) versus 0.51 (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.81), and women: 1.11 (95% CI: 0.58 to 2.02) versus 1 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47). Within developed nations, the overall relative change in median DALY rates was larger in women than in men: +1.00 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47) versus +0.51 (95% CI: 0.3 to 0.81). Similarly, the overall relative change in median years of life lost rate in developed countries was larger in women than in men: +1.64 (95% CI: 1.17 to 2.34) versus +0.53 (95% CI: 0.24 to 0.94). The relative increases in median years lived with nonfatal disease disability (YLD) rates in men and women were larger in developing versus developed nations: men: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.59 to 1.2) versus 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.73), and women: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.46 to 1.09) versus 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.73). Disability and mortality associated with PAD has increased over the last 20 years, and this increase in burden has been greater among women than among men. In addition, the burden of PAD is no longer confined to the elderly population, but now involves young adults. Furthermore, the relative increase in PAD burden in developing regions of the world is striking and exceeds the increases in developed nations.

Global and regional burden of aortic dissection and aneurysms: mortality trends in 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010.

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: -0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, which portends future health system challenges in these regions.

Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010.

The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA global prevalence and incidence rates have decreased over the last 20 years. However, rising rates in some regions highlight the need for policies to enhance global disease surveillance and prevention.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. METHODS: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. INTERPRETATION: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of Medicare claims data to ascertain peripheral vascular events in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Capturing long-term outcomes from large clinical databases by use of claims data is a potential strategy for improving efficiency while reducing study costs. We sought to compare the use of Medicare data with data from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) to determine peripheral vascular events, as defined by the WHI study design. METHODS: We studied participants from the WHI with both adjudicated outcomes and links to Medicare enrollment and utilization data through 2007. Outcomes of interest included hospitalizations for treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LE PAD), and carotid artery stenosis (CAS). Events determined by WHI adjudication were compared with events defined by coding algorithms using diagnosis and procedure codes from Medicare data with a pilot data set and then validated with a test data set. We assessed agreement by a κ statistic and evaluated reasons for disagreement. RESULTS: In the pilot set, records from 50,511 participants were analyzed. Agreement between the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and WHI for admissions with a diagnosis but no treatment procedures for vascular conditions was poor (κ, 0.02-0.18). On the basis of WHI outcome data collection, vascular treatment procedures occurred in 29 participants for AAA, 204 for LE PAD events, and 281 for CAS. Medicare hospital claims recorded 41 treatments for AAA, 255 for LE PAD, and 317 for CAS. For participants with a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-captured vascular procedure and a record adjudicated by WHI, κ values for treatment procedures were 0.81 for AAA, 0.77 for PAD, and 0.93 for CAS. For vascular procedures identified by WHI but not by Medicare hospital data (n = 82), 55% were captured by Medicare physician claims. Conversely, for treatments identified by Medicare hospital data but not captured by WHI adjudication (n = 57), 74% had physician claims consistent with the procedure. Fifteen participants with AAA or LE PAD procedures in hospital claims had medical records available for review, and nine of these had definitive documentation of procedures that were not captured by the WHI adjudication process. Estimated positive predictive value of Medicare data was 91% to 94% for AAA, 92% to 95% for LE PAD, and 94% to 99% for CAS. Available test set data (n = 50,253) yielded generally similar results with κ of 0.77 for AAA, 0.79 for LE PAD, and 0.94 for CAS. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare data appear useful for identifying vascular treatment procedures for WHI participants. Medicare hospital claims identify more procedures than WHI does, with high positive predictive value, but also may not capture some procedures identified in WHI.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

IMPORTANCE: Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES: To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN: We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS: US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Sample design and cohort selection in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

PURPOSE: The Hispanic Community Health Study (HCHS)/Study of Latinos (SOL) is a multicenter, community-based cohort study of Hispanic/Latino adults in the United States. A diverse participant sample is required that is both representative of the target population and likely to remain engaged throughout follow-up. The choice of sample design, its rationale, and benefits and challenges of design decisions are described in this study. METHODS: The study design calls for recruitment and follow-up of a cohort of 16,000 Hispanics/Latinos 18-74 years of age, with 62.5% (10,000) over 44 years of age and adequate subgroup sample sizes to support inference by Hispanic/Latino background. Participants are recruited in community areas surrounding four field centers in the Bronx, Chicago, Miami, and San Diego. A two-stage area probability sample of households is selected with stratification and oversampling incorporated at each stage to provide a broadly diverse sample, offer efficiencies in field operations, and ensure that the target age distribution is obtained. CONCLUSIONS: Embedding probability sampling within this traditional, multisite cohort study design enables competing research objectives to be met. However, the use of probability sampling requires developing solutions to some unique challenges in both sample selection and recruitment, as described here.

Ethnicity and risk factors for change in the ankle-brachial index: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for conversion from a normal to either a low or high ankle-brachial index (ABI). METHODS: Participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who had two separate measurements of the ABI over a 3-year time period were assessed. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age was 62 years and 50% were women, 28% African American, 12% Chinese, 22% Hispanic and 38% non-Hispanic White. Of the 5514 participants with a baseline ABI between 0.90 and 1.40, 89 (1.6%) had an ABI < or = 0.90 ("low ABI group") and 71 (1.3%) had an ABI > or = 1.40 ("high ABI group") 3 years later. On multivariable analysis, the odds for having progressed into the low ABI group were significantly increased for higher baseline age, hypertension, diabetes, greater pack-years of cigarette smoking, and homocysteine levels. The odds for progression into the high ABI group were increased for male gender and higher body mass index. Compared with non-Hispanic Whites, African Americans had a significantly higher odds for progression to the low ABI group (odds ratio [OR]: 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29-3.88) while having a reduced odds for progression to the high ABI group (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.24-1.00). Neither Chinese nor Hispanic ethnicity was significantly associated with progression to either ABI group. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for progression to a low or high ABI were distinct and African Americans were at increased risk for progression to a low ABI but at decreased risk for progression into the high ABI group.

Recruiting participants with peripheral arterial disease for clinical trials: experience from the Study to Improve Leg Circulation (SILC).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the success of diverse recruitment methods in a randomized controlled clinical trial of exercise in persons with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). METHODS: An analysis of recruitment sources conducted for the 746 men and women completing a baseline visit for the study to improve leg circulation (SILC), a randomized controlled trial of exercise for patients with PAD. For each recruitment source, we determined the number of randomized participants, the rate of randomization among those completing a baseline visit, and cost per randomized participant. RESULTS: Of the 746 individuals who completed a baseline visit, 156 were eligible and randomized. The most frequent sources of randomized participants were newspaper advertising (n = 67), mailed recruitment letters to patients with PAD identified at the study medical center (n = 25), and radio advertising (n = 18). Costs per randomized participant were $2750 for television advertising, $2167 for Life Line Screening, $2369 for newspaper advertising, $3931 for mailed postcards to older community dwelling men and women, and $5691 for radio advertising. Among those completing a baseline visit, randomization rates ranged from 10% for those identified from radio advertising to 32% for those identified from the Chicago Veterans Administration and 33% for those identified from posted flyers. CONCLUSION: Most participants in a randomized controlled trial of exercise were recruited from newspaper advertising and mailed recruitment letters to patients with known PAD. The highest randomization rates after a baseline visit occurred among participants identified from posted flyers and mailed recruitment letters to PAD patients.