Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB. We used genomic and demographic data to parameterize a mathematical model estimating long-term health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in 2022 USD ($) for each treatment strategy for patients 15 years and older diagnosed with pulmonary RR-TB in Moldova, a country with a high burden of TB drug resistance. For each individual, we simulated the natural history of TB and associated treatment outcomes, as well as the process of acquiring resistance to each of 12 anti-TB drugs. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM was cost-effective. This strategy was estimated to reduce lifetime costs by $3,366 (95% UI: [1,465, 5,742] p < 0.001) per individual, with a nonsignificant change in QALYs (-0.06; 95% UI: [-0.49, 0.03] p = 0.790). For those stopping moxifloxacin under the BPaLM regimen, continuing with BPaL plus clofazimine (BPaLC) provided more QALYs at lower cost than continuing with BPaL alone. Strategies based on 6 months of BPaLM had at least a 93% chance of being cost-effective, so long as BPaLC was continued in the event of stopping moxifloxacin. BPaLM for 6 months also reduced the average time spent with TB resistant to amikacin, bedaquiline, clofazimine, cycloserine, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide, while it increased the average time spent with TB resistant to delamanid and pretomanid. Sensitivity analyses showed 6 months of BPaLM to be cost-effective across a broad range of values for the relative effectiveness of BPaLM, and the proportion of the cohort with FQ-R. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM would be expected to save Moldova's national TB program budget $7.1 million (95% UI: [1.3 million, 15.4 million] p = 0.002) over the 5-year period from implementation. Our analysis did not account for all possible interactions between specific drugs with regard to treatment outcomes, resistance acquisition, or the consequences of specific types of severe adverse events, nor did we model how the intervention may affect TB transmission dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to standard of care, longer regimens, the implementation of the 6-month BPaLM regimen could improve the cost-effectiveness of care for individuals diagnosed with RR-TB, particularly in settings with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. Further research may be warranted to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of shorter RR-TB regimens across settings with varied drug-resistant TB burdens and national income levels.

Assessing tuberculosis control priorities in high-burden settings: a modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: In the context of WHO's End TB strategy, there is a need to focus future control efforts on those interventions and innovations that would be most effective in accelerating declines in tuberculosis burden. Using a modelling approach to link the tuberculosis care cascade to transmission, we aimed to identify which improvements in the cascade would yield the greatest effect on incidence and mortality. METHODS: We engaged with national tuberculosis programmes in three country settings (India, Kenya, and Moldova) as illustrative examples of settings with a large private sector (India), a high HIV burden (Kenya), and a high burden of multidrug resistance (Moldova). We collated WHO country burden estimates, routine surveillance data, and tuberculosis prevalence surveys from 2011 (for India) and 2016 (for Kenya). Linking the tuberculosis care cascade to tuberculosis transmission using a mathematical model with Bayesian melding in each setting, we examined which cascade shortfalls would have the greatest effect on incidence and mortality, and how the cascade could be used to monitor future control efforts. FINDINGS: Modelling suggests that combined measures to strengthen the care cascade could reduce cumulative tuberculosis incidence by 38% (95% Bayesian credible intervals 27-43) in India, 31% (25-41) in Kenya, and 27% (17-41) in Moldova between 2018 and 2035. For both incidence and mortality, modelling suggests that the most important cascade losses are the proportion of patients visiting the private health-care sector in India, missed diagnosis in health-care settings in Kenya, and drug sensitivity testing in Moldova. In all settings, the most influential delay is the interval before a patient's first presentation for care. In future interventions, the proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who are on high-quality treatment could offer a more robust monitoring tool than routine notifications of tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Linked to transmission, the care cascade can be valuable, not only for improving patient outcomes but also in identifying and monitoring programmatic priorities to reduce tuberculosis incidence and mortality. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, Stop TB Partnership, UK Medical Research Council, and Department for International Development.

Cost analysis of rapid diagnostics for drug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Growth-based drug susceptibility testing (DST) is the reference standard for diagnosing drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), but standard time to result (TTR) is typically ≥ 3 weeks. Rapid tests can reduce that TTR to days or hours, but accuracy may be lowered. In addition to the TTR and test accuracy, the cost of a diagnostic test may affect whether it is adopted in clinical settings. We examine the cost-effectiveness of rapid diagnostics for extremely drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) in three different high-prevalence settings. METHODS: 1128 patients with confirmed TB were enrolled at clinics in Mumbai, India; Chisinau, Moldova; and Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Patient sputum samples underwent DST for first and second line TB drugs using 2 growth-based (MGIT, MODS) and 2 molecular (Pyrosequencing [PSQ], line-probe assays [LPA]) assays. TTR was the primary measure of effectiveness. Sensitivity and specificity were also evaluated. The cost to perform each test at each site was recorded and included test-specific materials, personnel, and equipment costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated in terms of $/day saved. Sensitivity analyses examine the impact of batch size, equipment, and personnel costs. RESULTS: Our prior results indicated that the LPA and PSQ returned results in a little over 1 day. Mean cost per sample without equipment or overhead was $23, $28, $33, and $41 for the MODS, MGIT, PSQ, and LPA, respectively. For diagnosing XDR-TB, MODS was the most accurate, followed by PSQ, and LPA. MODS was quicker and less costly than MGIT. PSQ and LPA were considerably faster but cost more than MODS. Batch size and personnel costs were the main drivers of cost variation. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors must be weighed when selecting a test for diagnosis of XDR-TB. Rapid tests can greatly improve the time required to diagnose drug-resistant TB, potentially improving treatment success, and preventing the spread of XDR-TB. Faster time to result must be weighed against the potential for reduced accuracy, and increased costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02170441 .

The Global Consortium for Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Diagnostics (GCDD): design of a multi-site, head-to-head study of three rapid tests to detect extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) remains a threat to global public health, owing to the complexity and delay of diagnosis and treatment. The Global Consortium for Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Diagnostics (GCDD) was formed to develop and evaluate assays designed to rapidly detect DR-TB, so that appropriate treatment might begin more quickly. This paper describes the methodology employed in a prospective cohort study for head-to-head assessment of three different rapid diagnostic tools. METHODS: Subjects at risk of DR-TB were enrolled from three countries. Data were gathered from a combination of patient interviews, chart reviews, and laboratory testing from each site's reference laboratory. The primary outcome of interest was reduction in time from specimen arrival in the laboratory to results of rapid drug susceptibility tests, as compared with current standard mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) drug susceptibility tests. RESULTS: Successful implementation of the trial in diverse multinational populations is explained, in addition to challenges encountered and recommendations for future studies with similar aims or populations. CONCLUSIONS: The GCDD study was a head-to-head study of multiple rapid diagnostic assays aimed at improving accuracy and precision of diagnostics and reducing overall time to detection of DR-TB. By conducting a large prospective study, which captured epidemiological, clinical, and biological data, we have produced a high-quality unique dataset, which will be beneficial for analyzing study aims as well as answering future DR-TB research questions. Reduction in detection time for XDR-TB would be a major public health success as it would allow for improved treatment and more successful patient outcomes. Executing successful trials is critical in assessment of these reductions in highly variable populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02170441.

Increasing tuberculosis case detection: lessons from the Republic of Moldova.

The Republic of Moldova undertook reforms in tuberculosis (TB) control and health care consistent with international recommendations and advanced towards the global target for case detection. The number of TB cases notified increased overall by 50% during 2001-2005. Expansion of the DOTS strategy and full coverage coincided with a greater role for primary health care (PHC) in TB control and the advent of national insurance for TB diagnosis and treatment. These developments and improvements in laboratories, surveillance, medical personnel skills, and public awareness contributed to increased case detection. The Republic of Moldova addressed both demand and supply sides in these efforts. It increased effective demand for TB services by dispersing diagnostic capability, instituting financing mechanisms and saturating the public with information on symptoms, transmission and treatment. It increased the supply of TB services by upgrading the laboratory network, revamping surveillance and training practitioners. The Republic of Moldova's experience offers lessons for other countries: TB-PHC integration allowed more suspect cases to be diagnosed at nearby PHC clinics, contributing to more cases being notified. Innovative TB communications reached the general public, vulnerable groups, practitioners and the media. TB control projects built on each other and national coordination mechanisms served to identify funding for the most pressing needs. There are challenges remaining for TB control in the Republic of Moldova, not least the stable treatment success rate, but the country can list valuable lessons and achievements.