Cost-Effectiveness and Impact of a Targeted Age- and Incidence-based West Nile Virus Vaccine Strategy.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral disease in the United States and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A previous analysis found that a vaccination program targeting persons aged ≥60 years was more cost-effective than universal vaccination, but costs remained high. METHODS: We used a mathematical Markov model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of an age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program. We grouped states and large counties (≥100 000 persons aged ≥60 years) by median annual WNV incidence rates from 2004 to 2017 for persons aged ≥60 years. We defined WNV incidence thresholds, in increments of 0.5 cases per 100 000 persons ≥60 years. We calculated potential cost per WNV vaccine-prevented case and per quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS: Vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in states with an annual incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease of ≥0.5 per 100 000 resulted in approximately half the cost per health outcome averted compared to vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in the contiguous United States. This approach could potentially prevent 37% of all neuroinvasive disease cases and 63% of WNV-related deaths nationally. Employing such a threshold at a county level further improved cost-effectiveness ratios while preventing 19% and 30% of WNV-related neuroinvasive disease cases and deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program could be a more cost-effective strategy than an age-based program while still having a substantial impact on lowering WNV-related morbidity and mortality.

Assessment of Immunoglobulin M Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay Ratios to Identify West Nile Virus and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Infections During Concurrent Outbreaks of West Nile Virus and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Diseases, Arizona 2015.

West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) are closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses that cause clinical disease ranging from febrile illness to encephalitis. The standard for serological diagnosis is immunoglobulin M (IgM) testing followed by confirmatory plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) to differentiate the infecting virus. However, the PRNT is time-consuming and requires manipulation of live virus. During concurrent WNV and SLEV outbreaks in Arizona in 2015, we assessed use of a diagnostic algorithm to simplify testing. It incorporated WNV and SLEV ratios based on positive-to-negative (P/N) values derived from the IgM antibody-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We compared each sample's ratio-based result with the confirmed WNV or SLEV sample result indicated by PRNT or PCR testing. We analyzed data from 70 patients with 77 serum and cerebrospinal fluid samples, including 53 patients with confirmed WNV infection and 17 patients with confirmed SLEV infection. Both WNV and SLEV ratios had specificity ≥95%, indicating a high likelihood that each ratio was correctly identifying the infecting virus. The SLEV ratio sensitivity of 30% was much lower than the WNV ratio sensitivity of 91%, likely because of higher cross-reactivity of SLEV antibodies and generation of lower P/N values. The standard for serological diagnosis of WNV and SLEV infections remains IgM testing followed by PRNT. However, these results suggest the ratios could potentially be used as part of a diagnostic algorithm in outbreaks to substantially reduce the need for PRNTs.