Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management. OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers. DESIGN: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies. SETTING: Source data from secondary and tertiary care. PREDICTORS: We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia. ANALYSIS: We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 and τ2. A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals. RESULTS: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia. LIMITATIONS: Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data. CONCLUSION: For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings. FUTURE WORK: Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Pre-eclampsia, a condition in pregnancy that results in raised blood pressure and protein in the urine, is a major cause of complications for the mother and baby. WHAT IS NEEDED?: A way of accurately identifying women at high risk of pre-eclampsia to allow clinicians to start preventative interventions such as administering aspirin or frequently monitoring women during pregnancy. WHERE ARE THE RESEARCH GAPS?: Although over 100 tools (models) have been reported worldwide to predict pre-eclampsia, to date their performance in women managed in the UK NHS is unknown. WHAT DID WE PLAN TO DO?: We planned to comprehensively identify all published models that predict the risk of pre-eclampsia occurring at any time during pregnancy and to assess if this prediction is accurate in the UK population. If the existing models did not perform satisfactorily, we aimed to develop new prediction models. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We formed the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, which provided data from a large number of studies (78 studies, 25 countries, 125 researchers, 3,570,993 singleton pregnancies). We were able to assess the performance of 24 out of the 131 models published to predict pre-eclampsia in 11 UK data sets. The models did not accurately predict the risk of pre-eclampsia across all UK data sets, and their performance varied within individual data sets. We developed new prediction models that showed promising performance on average across all data sets, but their ability to correctly identify women who develop pre-eclampsia varied between populations. The models were more clinically useful when used in the care of first-time mothers pregnant with one child, compared to a strategy of treating them all as if they were at high-risk of pre-eclampsia. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: Before using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models in various populations, they need to be adjusted for characteristics of the particular population and the setting of application.

Association between timing of diagnosis of trisomy 21, 18, and 13 and maternal socio-economic status in Victoria, Australia: A population-based cohort study from 2015 to 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the association between timing of diagnosis of common autosomal trisomies, maternal age, and socio-economic status (SES). DESIGN: Retrospective study of cytogenetic diagnoses of trisomy 21 (T21), trisomy 18 (T18), and trisomy 13 (T13) in Victoria, Australia, in 2015 to 2016, stratified by timing (prenatal less than 17 weeks gestation, prenatal including or greater than or 17 weeks gestation, and postnatal before 12 months of age), maternal age, and SES region. Utilisation of prenatal testing following a live-born T21 infant was ascertained via record linkage. RESULTS: Among 160 230 total births were 571 diagnoses of T21 and 246 of T18/T13. The overall and live birth prevalences of T21 were 3.56 and 0.47 per 1000 births, respectively. Compared with women from disadvantaged SES regions, women from high SES regions were more likely to have a prenatal diagnosis of a trisomy before 17 weeks than after (P < .01) and less likely to have a live-born T21 infant than a prenatal diagnosis (P < .01). There was a significant trend to higher live birth rates of T21 with lower SES (P = .004). The majority (68.5%) of women who gave birth to a live infant with T21 did not utilise prenatal testing. CONCLUSION: There is a significant relationship between lower SES, later prenatal diagnosis of trisomy, and higher live birth rate of T21 in Victoria.

Defining the clinician's role in early health technology assessment during medical device innovation - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Early Health Technology Assessment (EHTA) is an evolving field in health policy which aims to provide decision support and mitigate risk during early medical device innovation. The clinician is a key stakeholder in this process and their role has traditionally been confined to assessing device efficacy and safety alone. There is however, no data exploring their role in this process and how they can contribute towards it. This motivated us to carry out a systematic review to delineate the role of the clinician in EHTA as per the PRISMA guidelines. METHODS: A systematic search of peer reviewed literature was undertaken across PUBMED, OVID Medline and Web of science up till June 2018. Studies that were suitable for inclusion focused on clinician input in health technology assessment or early medical device innovation. A qualitative approach was utilised to generate themes on how clinicians could contribute in general and specific areas of EHTA. Data was manually extracted by the authors and themes were agreed in consensus using a grounded theory framework. The specific stages included: All stages of EHTA, Basic research on mechanisms, Targeting for specific product, Proof of principle and Prototype and product development. Bias was assessed utilising the NICE Qualitative checklist. RESULTS: A total of 33 articles met the inclusion criteria for the review. Areas identified in which the clinicians could contribute to EHTA included: i) needs driven problem solving, ii) conformity assessment of MDs, iii) economic evaluation of MDs and iv) addressing the conflicts in interest. For clinicians' input across the various specific areas of EHTA, an innovation framework was generated based on the subthemes extracted. CONCLUSIONS: The following review has identified the various segments in which clinicians can contribute to EHTA to inform stakeholders and has also proposed an innovation framework.

A systematic review on the utility of non-invasive electrophysiological assessment in evaluating for intra uterine growth restriction.

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive electrophysiological assessment (NIEA) is an evolving area in fetal surveillance and is attracting increasing research interest. There is however, limited data outlining its utility in evaluating intra uterine growth restriction (IUGR). The objective of this study was to carry out a systematic review to outline the utility of NIEA parameters in evaluating IUGR. METHODS: A systematic review of peer reviewed literature was performed, searching PUBMED, Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE. The outcomes of interest included NIEA parameters [P wave duration, PR interval, QRS duration, QT interval, T/QRS ratio, short term variability (STV) and long term variability (LTV)] and a descriptive summary of relevant studies as well. RESULTS: Sixteen studies were identified as suitable for inclusion. The utility of NIEA parameters were investigated in tabular form. In particular, QRS and QT duration, T/QRS ratio, STV and PRSA analysis displayed utility and merit further consideration in evaluating for IUGR. Issues identified in the review were in relation to variances in definition of IUGR, small sample sizes and the lack of technological consistency across studies. CONCLUSION: NIEA shows promise as an adjunct surveillance tool in fetal diagnostics for IUGR. Larger prospective studies should be directed towards establishing reliable parameters with a focus on uniformity of IUGR definition, technological consistency and the individualisation of NIEA parameters.

Antenatal assessment and postnatal outcome of fetal echogenic lung lesions: a decade's experience at a tertiary referral hospital.

INTRODUCTION: Fetal echogenic lung lesions (ELL) are the commonest pulmonary pathology diagnosed on antenatal sonography, and include congenital pulmonary airway malformations (CPAMs) and bronchopulmonary sequestrations. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive utility of the CPAM volume ratio (CVR) at presentation in a series of fetuses with ELLs at a tertiary Australian referral hospital. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all pregnancies with a prenatal diagnosis of an isolated fetal echogenic lung lesion managed at the Royal Women's Hospital, Victoria, Australia, between 2005 and 2015. Data were obtained from electronic ultrasound image databases and medical records. RESULTS: Sixty-five cases were included in the final analysis. The mean gestation at presentation was 22 weeks and 6 d, and the mean CVR was 0.66. Hydrops was evident in four cases at presentation, and did not develop subsequently in any other case. Significant perinatal concerns - fetal/neonatal demise, hydrops, requirement for neonatal intubation/ventilation, or surgery in the first year of life - did not occur with or following a CVR at presentation of <0.45. The survival rate at 1 year was 95%. DISCUSSION: The CVR is a potentially useful tool to assess all fetal ELLs, and not just those presumed to be CPAMs. A CVR at presentation of <0.45 was associated with favourable outcomes.

How to perform a sonographic morphological assessment of the fetus at 11-14 weeks of gestation.

INTRODUCTION: First-trimester ultrasound is widely accepted as part of standard care in many countries. With improvements in equipment, expertise and increasing number of technical studies describing imaging techniques, the detection rate for major fetal anomalies in the first trimester continues to rise and can be as high as 60% in high-risk populations. METHODS: We set out to create a systematic pictorial guide for trained ultrasound providers to describe the common anatomical structures that are identifiable in the first trimester with provided images. In addition to normal anatomical structures, a number of anomalies with high detection rates are listed. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of the major fetal abnormalities can be detected in the first trimester. A systematic approach is essential to ensure that anomalies are equally likely to be detected for patients of any risk background.

Assessment of Fetal Congenital Heart Diseases by 4-Dimensional Ultrasound Using Spatiotemporal Image Correlation: Pictorial Review.

The aim of this pictorial review is to describe the technical advances achieved through the application of 4-dimensional (4D) ultrasound using spatiotemporal image correlation (STIC) over conventional 2-dimensional ultrasound in the prenatal detection of congenital heart disease (CHD). Spatiotemporal image correlation is a volume imaging technique that simplifies fetal heart studies while providing more diagnostic information than is typically available from traditional 2-dimensional studies. Four-dimensional software allows the study of cardiac anatomy and function during a single cardiac cycle and has greatly contributed to diagnostic enhancement of CHD. Color flow and power Doppler can be added to STIC in the study of vessel anatomy and to increase the detection of ventricular septal defects. Anatomical details of the fetus can be displayed in multiple images such as using computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, cardiac anatomy can be sectioned freely and reconstructed using different reformatting applications. Realistic views of the fetal heart, with particular emphasis on myocardium and endocardium cushion, can be reached using novel lightening techniques. Moreover, using 4D ultrasound, echolucent structures can be converted into solid voxels generating "digital casts" of the fetal heart that enhances the understanding of the great vessel relationships in the ventricular inflow and outflow tracts. Recently, sillhouette mode has shown to improve depth perception and resolution compared with conventional 3D power Doppler in the study of inflow and outflow tracts. Here, a gallery of prenatally detected CHD using 4D ultrasound with STIC and different applications is described.

Assessment of angiogenesis modulators in pregnant women with pre-eclampsia: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the serum concentration of factors associated with placental angiogenesis in pre-eclamptic and normotensive pregnant women. METHODS: This was a prospective, cross-sectional, case-control study in which the pro-angiogenic factors PlGF, VEGF and IL-10, and the anti-angiogenic factors IL-6, IL-17 and TNF-α of 55 pregnant women (31 with pre-eclampsia-PE and 24 normotensive), with gestational age ≥20 weeks, were measured in maternal blood through the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for comparison between groups. RESULTS: Serum PIGF was reduced in the group of pregnant women with PE when compared with the normotensive women (493.2 ± 55.1 pg/mL vs. 4.4 ± 26.5 pg/mL; p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in PlGF levels in the pre-eclamptic pregnant women in relation to gestational age or proteinuria levels (p > 0.05). The serum levels of VEGF, IL-17, IL-10 and TNF-α were lower in the pregnant women with PE when compared with their normotensive peers, while the IL-6 levels were higher; however, this difference was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Serum PlGF levels were reduced in the pregnant women with PE and were unrelated to disease severity. Serum levels of VEGF, IL-17, IL-10 and TNF-α were reduced in the pre-eclamptic pregnant women when compared with their normotensive peers, without statistically significant differences.