Impact of birth cohort screening for hepatitis C.

Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related complications, and the burden of liver disease is expected to increase. Given the over-representation of HCV-related liver disease in persons born between 1945 and 1965, and the failure of risk-based screening to identify many infected persons, birth cohort screening has been advocated and endorsed by both the Centers for Disease Control and United States Preventive Services Task Force, regardless of the presence of risk factors. Birth cohort testing is more cost-effective than risk-based screening especially when those with more advanced disease are given priority for treatment. Several barriers exist at the patient and provider level that need to be overcome to fully realize the potential benefit of birth cohort screening in reducing HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

Economic model of a birth cohort screening program for hepatitis C virus.

UNLABELLED: Recent research has identified high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence among older U.S. residents who contracted HCV decades ago and may no longer be recognized as high risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening 100% of U.S. residents born 1946-1970 over 5 years (birth-cohort screening), compared with current risk-based screening, by projecting costs and outcomes of screening over the remaining lifetime of this birth cohort. A Markov model of the natural history of HCV was developed using data synthesized from surveillance data, published literature, expert opinion, and other secondary sources. We assumed eligible patients were treated with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin, with genotype 1 patients receiving a direct-acting antiviral in combination. The target population is U.S. residents born 1946-1970 with no previous HCV diagnosis. Among the estimated 102 million (1.6 million chronically HCV infected) eligible for screening, birth-cohort screening leads to 84,000 fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 46,000 fewer cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 10,000 fewer liver transplants, and 78,000 fewer HCV-related deaths. Birth-cohort screening leads to higher overall costs than risk-based screening ($80.4 billion versus $53.7 billion), but yields lower costs related to advanced liver disease ($31.2 billion versus $39.8 billion); birth-cohort screening produces an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,700 per quality-adjusted life year gained versus risk-based screening. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing the time horizon during which health and economic consequences are evaluated increases the ICER; similarly, decreasing the treatment rates and efficacy increases the ICER. Model results were relatively insensitive to other inputs. CONCLUSION: Birth-cohort screening for HCV is likely to provide important health benefits by reducing lifetime cases of advanced liver disease and HCV-related deaths and is cost-effective at conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds.

The healthcare burden imposed by liver disease in aging Baby Boomers.

The Baby Boomer generation is composed of 78 million Americans who are just beginning to reach their retirement years. Most Boomers have at least one chronic health problem, and these significantly increase the expense of providing medical care. Liver disease is the 12th most common cause of death in the United States, representing a relatively small portion of overall healthcare costs compared with cardiovascular disease and malignancy. Nonetheless, hepatitis C and fatty liver disease are more common in the Boomers and may play a more dominant role as they age. As a consequence, primary liver cancer is likely to become more prevalent. As with most chronic illnesses, prevention rather than disease management is likely to have the greatest impact. For those already afflicted by chronic liver disease, recognition and treatment can reduce the incidence of late complications, as was clearly demonstrated with chronic hepatitis B and C. Perhaps obesity is the greatest threat to our future health, and fatty liver disease, although likely preventable, will probably become the disease that fills the waiting rooms of future hepatologists.

Economic and clinical effects of evaluating rapid viral response to peginterferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin for the initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of 12-wk viral response to initial antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C has been recommended to minimize antiviral-associated morbidity and costs. The aim of this study was to examine the economic and clinical effects of evaluating rapid viral response during antiviral therapy for treatment naive chronic hepatitis C patients. METHODS: We applied viral response and drug dosage from an international randomized clinical trial of ribavirin plus peginterferon alfa-2b or ribavirin plus interferon alfa-2b to a previously published computer cohort simulation to project lifelong clinical and economic outcomes. Natural history and economic estimates were based on published literature, expert panel estimates, and actual variable and reimbursement cost data. RESULTS: The assessment of 12-wk rapid viral response reduced antiviral treatment duration by 40-44% and antiviral costs by 44-45% (savings of $15,116-16,268 for peginterferon plus ribavirin and $8300 for interferon plus ribavirin) compared to full 48-wk dosing. With the 12-wk evaluation, the marginal cost-effectiveness of peginterferon plus ribavirin versus interferon plus ribavirin was $13,600-22,800 compared with $14,600-25,000 per discounted quality adjusted life-year gained with the 24-wk evaluation. For genotype 1, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing for peginterferon plus ribavirin remaining preferred and cost-effective compared with interferon plus ribavirin. For genotype 2 or 3, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing yielded similar results to those of 24-wk treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of 12-wk viral response in genotype 1, hepatitis C infected patients should reduce peginterferon plus ribavirin morbidity and costs and improve its cost-effectiveness; however, for genotype 2 and 3, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing and 24-wk treatment have similar outcomes. Decisions regarding continuation of antiviral treatment should also consider the variability in the accuracy of quantitative viral assays as well as patient preferences and other potential benefits of the same treatments.

Projecting future complications of chronic hepatitis C in the United States.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common and often results in slowly progressive liver disease. Although acute hepatitis C is now uncommon, most patients with acute infection have developed chronic hepatitis, and, therefore, the pool of infected patients is large. We used a modification of a previously described natural history model for HCV infection to project the number of cases of HCV infection, cirrhosis, and liver failure over the next 40 years. The model estimated the prevalence of HCV infection in the United States was 3.07 x 10(6) in 1993 (compared with an adjusted National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES) III estimate of 2.8 to 3.5 x 10(6)). A gradual decline in the prevalence of infection should occur by year 2040 because of aging and natural deaths among the infected pool. However, as the duration of infection increases in the surviving cohort, the proportion with cirrhosis will increase from 16% to 32% by 2020 in an untreated population. Complications of cirrhosis also will increase dramatically over the next 20 years: hepatic decompensation (up 106%), hepatocellular carcinoma (up 81%), and liver-related deaths (up 180%). Although current treatment regimens eradicate HCV in over 50% of cases, many more patients would need to be treated to significantly impact disease progression. Identification and treatment of every case of HCV infection (with or without cirrhosis) would reduce the number of cases of decompensated cirrhosis by almost half after 20 years. Despite the declining incidence of acute HCV infection, chronic hepatitis C is common. The prevalence of cirrhosis and the incidence of its complications will increase over the next 10 to 20 years, because the duration of infection increases among those with chronic hepatitis C. These data emphasize the need for greater access to transplantation by expansion of the donor pool, increasing use of split livers and living donors, and novel options such as xenotransplantation.