Costs of seasonal influenza vaccine delivery in a pediatric demonstration project for children aged 6-23 months - Nakuru and Mombasa Counties, Kenya, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: During November 2019-October 2021, a pediatric influenza vaccination demonstration project was conducted in four sub-counties in Kenya. The demonstration piloted two different delivery strategies: year-round vaccination and a four-month vaccination campaign. Our objective was to compare the costs of both delivery strategies. METHODS: Cost data were collected using standardized questionnaires and extracted from government and project accounting records. We reported total costs and costs per vaccine dose administered by delivery strategy from the Kenyan government perspective in 2021 US$. Costs were separated into financial costs (monetary expenditures) and economic costs (financial costs plus the value of existing resources). We also separated costs by administrative level (national, regional, county, sub-county, and health facility) and program activity (advocacy and social mobilization; training; distribution, storage, and waste management; service delivery; monitoring; and supervision). RESULTS: The total estimated cost of the pediatric influenza demonstration project was US$ 225,269 (financial) and US$ 326,691 (economic) for the year-round delivery strategy (30,397 vaccine doses administered), compared with US$ 214,753 (financial) and US$ 242,385 (economic) for the campaign strategy (25,404 doses administered). Vaccine purchase represented the largest proportion of costs for both strategies. Excluding vaccine purchase, the cost per dose administered was US$ 1.58 (financial) and US$ 5.84 (economic) for the year-round strategy and US$ 2.89 (financial) and US$ 4.56 (economic) for the campaign strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The financial cost per dose was 83% higher for the campaign strategy than the year-round strategy due to larger expenditures for advocacy and social mobilization, training, and hiring of surge staff for service delivery. However, the economic cost per dose was more comparable for both strategies (year-round 22% higher than campaign), balanced by higher costs of operating equipment and monitoring activities for the year-round strategy. These delivery cost data provide real-world evidence to inform pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya.

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile. METHODS: We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective. RESULTS: Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ - 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review.

BACKGROUND: How best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, transmission, and morbidity outcomes. METHODS: We searched the National Institute of Health iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio (a database of peer-reviewed and pre-print articles), Econlit, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and the National Bureau of Economic Research for mathematical modelling studies evaluating the impact of prioritising COVID-19 vaccination to population target groups. The first search was conducted on March 3, 2021, and an updated search on the LMIC literature was conducted from March 3, 2021, to September 24, 2021. We narratively synthesised the main study conclusions on prioritisation and the conditions under which the conclusions changed. RESULTS: The initial search identified 1820 studies and 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The updated search on LMIC literature identified 7 more studies. 43 studies in total were narratively synthesised. 74% of studies described outcomes in high-income countries (single and multi-country). We found that for countries seeking to minimise deaths, prioritising vaccination of senior adults was the optimal strategy and for countries seeking to minimise cases the young were prioritised. There were several exceptions to the main conclusion, notably that reductions in deaths could be increased if groups at high risk of both transmission and death could be further identified. Findings were also sensitive to the level of vaccine coverage. CONCLUSION: The evidence supports WHO SAGE recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation. There is, however, an evidence gap on optimal prioritisation for low- and middle-income countries, studies that included an economic evaluation, and studies that explore prioritisation strategies if the aim is to reduce overall health burden including morbidity.

Experiences of doctoral students enrolled in a research fellowship program to support doctoral training in Africa (2014 to 2018): The Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa odyssey.

BACKGROUND: The Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa (CARTA) aims to transform higher education in Africa. One of its main thrusts is supporting promising university faculty (fellows) to obtain high quality doctoral training. CARTA offers fellows robust support which includes funding of their attendance at Joint Advanced Seminars (JASes) throughout the doctoral training period. An evaluation is critical in improving program outcomes. In this study; we, CARTA fellows who attended the fourth JAS in 2018, appraised the CARTA program from our perspective, specifically focusing on the organization of the program and its influence on the fellows' individual and institutional development. METHODS: Exploratory Qualitative Study Design was used and data was obtained from three focus group discussions among the fellows in March 2018. The data were analyzed using thematic approach within the framework of good practice elements in doctoral training-Formal Research Training, Activities Driven by Doctoral Candidates, Career Development as well as Concepts and Structures. RESULTS: In all, 21 fellows from six African countries participated and all had been in the CARTA program for at least three years. The fellowship has increased fellows research skills and expanded our research capacities. This tremendously improved the quality of our doctoral research and it was also evident in our research outputs, including the number of peer-reviewed publications. The CARTA experience inculcated a multidisciplinary approach to our research and enabled significant improvement in our organizational, teaching, and leadership skills. All these were achieved through the well-organized structures of CARTA and these have transformed us to change agents who are already taking on research and administrative responsibilities in our various home institutions. Unfortunately, during the long break between the second and the third JAS, there was a gap in communication between CARTA and her fellows, which resulted in some transient loss of focus by a few fellows. CONCLUSION: The CARTA model which builds the research capacity of doctoral fellows through robust support, including intermittent strategic Joint Advanced Seminars has had effective and transformative impacts on our doctoral odyssey. However, there is a need to maintain the momentum through continuous communication between CARTA and the fellows all through this journey.

Seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya: an economic evaluation using dynamic transmission modelling.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. METHODS: We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6-23 months (strategy I), 2-5 years (strategy II) and 6-14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17-$872). RESULTS: The mean number of infections across all ages was 2-15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6-23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2-5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6-14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit. CONCLUSION: Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Developing a seasonal influenza vaccine recommendation in Kenya: Process and challenges faced by the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG).

BACKGROUND: In 2014 the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG) was asked by the Ministry of Health to provide an evidence-based recommendation on whether the seasonal influenza vaccine should be introduced into the national immunization program (NIP). METHODS: We reviewed KENITAG manuals, reports and meeting minutes generated between June 2014 and June 2016 in order to describe the process KENITAG used in arriving at that recommendation and the challenges encountered. RESULTS: KENITAG developed a recommendation framework to identify critical, important and non-critical data elements that would guide deliberations on the subject. Literature searches were conducted in several databases and the quality of scientific articles obtained was assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool. There were significant gaps in knowledge on the national burden of influenza disease among key risk groups, i.e., pregnant women, individuals with co-morbidities, the elderly and health care workers. Insufficient funding and limited work force hindered KENITAG activities. In 2016 KENITAG recommended introduction of the annual seasonal influenza vaccine among children 6 to 23 months of age. However, the recommendation was contingent on implementation of a pilot study to address gaps in local data on the socio-economic impact of influenza vaccination programs, strategies for vaccine delivery, and the impact of the vaccination program on the healthcare workforce and existing immunization program. KENITAG did not recommend the influenza vaccine for any other risk group due to lack of local burden of disease data. CONCLUSION: Local data are a critical element in NITAG deliberations, however, where local data and in particular burden of disease data are lacking, there is need to adopt scientifically acceptable methods of utilizing findings from other countries to inform local decisions in a manner that is valid and acceptable to decision makers.