A Decision-Analytic Model to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Etelcalcetide vs. Cinacalcet.

INTRODUCTION: Etelcalcetide is a novel intravenous calcimimetic for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in haemodialysis patients. The clinical efficacy and safety of etelcalcetide (in addition to phosphate binders and vitamin D and/or analogues [PB/VD]) was evaluated in three phase III studies, including two placebo-controlled trials and a head-to-head study versus the oral calcimimetic cinacalcet. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a decision-analytic model for economic evaluation of etelcalcetide compared with cinacalcet. METHODS: We developed a life-time Markov model including potential treatment effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, fractures, and subjects' persistence. Long-term efficacy of etelcalcetide was extrapolated from the reduction in parathyroid hormone (PTH) in the phase III trials and the available data from the outcomes study in cinacalcet (EVOLVE trial). Etelcalcetide was compared with cinacalcet, both in addition to PB/VD. We applied unit costs averaged from five European countries and a range of potential etelcalcetide pricing options assuming parity price to weekly use of cinacalcet and varying it by a 15 or 30% increase. RESULTS: Compared with cinacalcet, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of etelcalcetide was €1,355 per QALY, €24,521 per QALY, and €47,687 per QALY for the three prices explored. The results were robust across the probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling approach enabled cost-utility assessment of the novel therapy for SHPT based on the observed and extrapolated data. This model can be used for local adaptations in the context of reimbursement assessment.

Analyzing Health-Related Quality of Life in the EVOLVE Trial: The Joint Impact of Treatment and Clinical Events.

BACKGROUND: The Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) clinical trial evaluated the effects of cinacalcet on clinical events in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) who were on hemodialysis. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed by a generic, preference-based health outcome measure (EQ-5D) at scheduled visits and after a study event. Here, we report the HRQoL analysis from EVOLVE. METHODS: We assessed changes in HRQoL from baseline to scheduled visits, and estimated the acute (3 mo) and chronic (beyond 3 mo) effects of sHPT-related events on HRQoL using generalized estimating equation analysis controlling for baseline HRQoL and randomized assignment. RESULTS: Data on HRQoL were available for 3547 of 3883 subjects, with 1650 events in the placebo and 1502 in the cinacalcet arm. At the study end, no difference in change from baseline HRQoL was observed in the direct comparison of EQ-5D by treatment arms. The regression analysis showed significant effects of events on HRQoL and a modest positive effect of cinacalcet. Estimated quality-adjusted life-year gains were of similar magnitude based on the observed data or the predictions from the model, with only a small gain in precision from the predicted analysis. CONCLUSIONS: By contrast with a conventional comparison, a regression analysis demonstrated large decrements in HRQoL after events and a modest improvement in HRQoL with cinacalcet. As randomized controlled trials are rarely powered to detect differences in HRQoL, a prespecified regression analysis may be acceptable to improve precision of the effects and understand their origin.

Economic Evaluation of Cinacalcet in the United States: The EVOLVE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Previous economic evaluations of cinacalcet in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) relied on the combination of surrogate end points in clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to conduct an economic evaluation of cinacalcet on the basis of the EValuation Of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower CardioVascular Events (EVOLVE) trial from a US payer perspective. METHODS: We developed a semi-Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet in addition to conventional therapy, compared with conventional therapy alone, in patients with moderate-to-severe sHPT receiving hemodialysis. We used treatment effect estimates from the unadjusted intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis and prespecified covariate-adjusted ITT analysis as our main analyses. We assessed model sensitivity to variations in individual inputs and overall decision uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cinacalcet was $61,705 per life-year and $79,562 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained using the covariate-adjusted ITT analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested a 73.2% chance of the ICER being below a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000. Treatment effects from unadjusted ITT analysis yielded an ICER of $115,876 per QALY. The model was most sensitive to the treatment effect on mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In the unadjusted ITT analysis, cinacalcet does not represent a cost- effective use of health care resources when applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. When using the covariate-adjusted ITT treatment effect, which represents the least biased estimate, however, cinacalcet is a cost-effective therapy for patients with moderate-to-severe sHPT on hemodialysis.