Development of predictive models to identify advanced-stage cancer patients in a US healthcare claims database.

BACKGROUND: Although healthcare databases are a valuable source for real-world oncology data, cancer stage is often lacking. We developed predictive models using claims data to identify metastatic/advanced-stage patients with ovarian cancer, urothelial carcinoma, gastric adenocarcinoma, Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Patients with ≥1 diagnosis of a cancer of interest were identified in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), a United States (US) healthcare database (2010-2016). Data were linked to three US state cancer registries and the HealthCore Integrated Research Environment Oncology database to identify cancer stage. Predictive models were constructed to estimate the probability of metastatic/advanced stage. Predictors available in the HIRD were identified and coefficients estimated by Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation to control overfitting. Classification error rates and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to select probability thresholds for classifying patients as cases of metastatic/advanced cancer. RESULTS: We used 2723 ovarian cancer, 6522 urothelial carcinoma, 1441 gastric adenocarcinoma, 109 MCC, and 12,373 NSCLC cases of early and metastatic/advanced cancer to develop predictive models. All models had high discrimination (C > 0.85). At thresholds selected for each model, PPVs were all >0.75: ovarian cancer = 0.95 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.94-0.96), urothelial carcinoma = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86), gastric adenocarcinoma = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.88), MCC = 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.89), and NSCLC = 0.91 (95% CI 0.90 - 0.92). CONCLUSION: Predictive modeling was used to identify five types of metastatic/advanced cancer in a healthcare claims database with greater accuracy than previous methods.

Frequencies, costs, and complications of catheter ablation for tachyarrhythmias in children: 2000-2009.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, catheter ablation (CA) has revolutionized the treatment of tachyarrhythmias in children by providing a relatively safe and effective alternative to open heart surgery or lifelong pharmacotherapy. This study (1) described national trends in pediatric CAs and their associated costs and complications and (2) predicted the likelihood of major complications based on patient and hospital characteristics. METHODS: Inpatient data were obtained from the Kids' Inpatient Database for the years 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009. Outpatient data were obtained from the California, Maryland, and New Jersey State Ambulatory Surgery Databases for the years 2006 and 2009. Logistic regression was used to predict the odds of major complications from CA. RESULTS: There was a 20% increase (4,134-4,967) in the number of pediatric CAs performed from 2006 to 2009 that was concomitant with a decrease in the percentage of those procedures being performed as inpatient procedures (2,254-1,846). In 2009, a complication rate of 4.81% was estimated. For inpatient CAs, higher risk patients (with congenital heart disease, congestive heart failure, or heart transplant), ablations for ventricular tachycardias, and low-CA-volume hospitals were associated with increased risk of complications. In 2009, the mean cost of a hospitalization involving CA, but no cardiac surgery, was $17,204 (standard error = $1,015). CONCLUSIONS: CA has increasingly been used over the past decade for pediatric patients with a multitude of tachycardia mechanisms. There continues to be a small risk of major complications, especially for higher risk children and in hospitals with more limited experience with the procedure.

Trends in the utilization of, spending on, and prices for outpatient antifungal agents in US Medicaid programs: 1991-2009.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of invasive fungal infections (IFIs) has increased substantially in the recent past. Advances in medical technology, including broad-spectrum antibiotics, may increase the risk for fungal infections. Moreover, immunocompromised patients with cancer, HIV/AIDS, and/or transplants are susceptible to IFIs. Meanwhile, superficial fungal infections (SFIs) are common and can be difficult to cure. OBJECTIVE: To provide a historical perspective on a dynamic market with expensive medications, this study describes trends in the utilization of, spending on, and average per-prescription spending on outpatient antifungal medications individually, in classes (for IFIs or SFIs), and overall, by the US Medicaid programs from 1991 to 2009. METHODS: The publicly available Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data, maintained by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, were used. Annual prescription counts and reimbursement amounts were calculated for each of the antifungals reimbursed by Medicaid. Average per-prescription spending as a proxy for drug price was calculated by dividing reimbursement by the number of prescriptions. RESULTS: Overall utilization for Medicaid beneficiaries remained steady, with 4.56 million prescriptions in 1991 and 4.51 million in 2009. Expenditures rose from $93.87 million to $143.76 million (in current-year US$) over the same time period. The drop in the utilization of first-generation azoles over the last 5 years of the study period can be explained in part by the movement of dual-eligibles from Medicaid to Medicare Part D and in part to a rise in fungal infections better treated with second-generation azoles or echinocandins. Whereas the average per-prescription price for generic (oral) fluconazole was $8 in 2009, the price per prescription of branded (intravenous) voriconazole was $2178. CONCLUSIONS: Overall spending by Medicaid on outpatient antifungal medications increased more slowly than did the growth of the Medicaid programs from 1991 to 2009. However, the utilization of antifungal agents for IFIs increased almost 10-fold over this period, far outpacing the rise in the number of Medicaid beneficiaries.

Impact of the Food and Drug Administration's antipsychotic black box warning on psychotropic drug prescribing in elderly patients with dementia in outpatient and office-based settings.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with dementia also suffer from behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, for which there is no Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the Food and Drug Administration's black box warning in April 2005 has led to a decline in prescriptions of atypical antipsychotics for behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, as well as whether prescriptions for other psychotropic drugs, including antidepressants, anxiolytics, and antiepileptics, as substitutes, have increased. METHODS: Data on outpatient visits by elderly dementia patients were obtained from two large national surveys from 2003 to 2008. Any psychotropic drug mentions were identified. Percentage utilization statistics were calculated. RESULTS: The percentage of visits mentioning an atypical antipsychotic decreased from 12.5% prewarning to 11.5% postwarning. Postwarning, 34.4% of patients were taking none of the study medications, as opposed to 26.1% prewarning. CONCLUSIONS: After the warning, there was a small decline in the use of atypical antipsychotics and no evidence of substitution of other psychotropic medications.