A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity.

BACKGROUND: The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). METHODS: Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4·5, 6·0 and 8·5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17·05-34·61 °C for Ae. aegypti and 15·84-31·51 °C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries. FINDINGS: Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070. INTERPRETATION: The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an early warning system for dengue transmission.

Identifying the fitness costs of a pyrethroid-resistant genotype in the major arboviral vector Aedes aegypti.

BACKGROUND: Effective vector control measures are essential in a world where many mosquito-borne diseases have no vaccines or drug therapies available. Insecticidal tools remain the mainstay of most vector-borne disease management programmes, although their use for both agricultural and public health purposes has resulted in selection for resistance. Despite this, little is known about the fitness costs associated with specific insecticide-resistant genotypes and their implications for the management of resistance. In Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, the best-characterised resistance mechanisms are single-point mutations that protect the voltage-gated sodium channel from the action of pyrethroids. METHODS: We evaluated the fitness cost of two co-occurring, homozygous mutations (V1016G and S989P) by back-crossing a resistant strain of A. aegypti from Timor-Leste into a fully susceptible strain from Queensland. The creation of the backcross strain allowed us to isolate these kdr mutations in an otherwise susceptible genetic background. RESULTS: In comparison to the susceptible strain, the backcrossed colony exhibited longer larval development times (5 days, P < 0.001), 24% fewer mosquitoes reached the adult stage (P = 0.005), had smaller wing lengths (females, P = 0.019 and males, P = 0.007) and adult female mosquitoes had a shorter average lifespan (6 days, P < 0.0006). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest specific and significant fitness costs associated with the double homozygous V1016G/S989P genotype in the absence of insecticides. The susceptibility of a population may recover if the fitness costs of resistant genotypes can be emphasised through the use of insecticide rotations and mosaics or the presence of untreated spatial or temporal refuges.

Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.

The elimination of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, from Brisbane, Australia: The role of surveillance, larval habitat removal and policy.

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito whose global distribution has fluctuated dramatically over the last 100 years. In Australia the distribution of Ae. aegypti once spanned the eastern seaboard, for 3,000 km north to south. However, during the 1900s this distribution markedly reduced and the mosquito disappeared from its southern range. Numerous hypotheses have been proffered for this retraction, however quantitative evidence of the mechanisms driving the disappearance are lacking. We examine historical records during the period when Ae. aegypti disappeared from Brisbane, the largest population centre in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we focus on the targeted management of Ae. aegypti by government authorities, that led to local elimination, something rarely observed in large cities. Numerous factors are likely to be responsible including the removal of larval habitat, especially domestic rainwater tanks, in combination with increased mosquito surveillance and regulatory enforcement. This account of historical events as they pertain to the elimination of Ae. aegypti from Brisbane, will inform assessments of the risks posed by recent human responses to climate change and the reintroduction of 300,000 rainwater tanks into the State over the past decade.

The dynamics of pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles arabiensis from Zanzibar and an assessment of the underlying genetic basis.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of pyrethroid resistance in the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis, threatens to undermine the considerable gains made towards eliminating malaria on Zanzibar. Previously, resistance was restricted to the island of Pemba while mosquitoes from Unguja, the larger of the two islands of Zanzibar, were susceptible. Here, we characterised the mechanism(s) responsible for resistance on Zanzibar using a combination of gene expression and target-site mutation assays. METHODS: WHO resistance bioassays were conducted using 1-5d old adult Anopheles gambiae s.l. collected between 2011 and 2013 across the archipelago. Synergist assays with the P450 inhibitor piperonyl-butoxide were performed in 2013. Members of the An. gambiae complex were PCR-identified and screened for target-site mutations (kdr and Ace-1). Gene expression in pyrethroid resistant An. arabiensis from Pemba was analysed using whole-genome microarrays. RESULTS: Pyrethroid resistance is now present across the entire Zanzibar archipelago. Survival to the pyrethroid lambda-cyhalothrin in bioassays conducted in 2013 was 23.5-54.3% on Unguja and 32.9-81.7% on Pemba. We present evidence that resistance is mediated, in part at least, by elevated P450 monoxygenases. Whole-genome microarray scans showed that the most enriched gene terms in resistant An. arabiensis from Pemba were associated with P450 activity and synergist assays with PBO completely restored susceptibility to pyrethroids in both islands. CYP4G16 was the most consistently over-expressed gene in resistant mosquitoes compared with two susceptible strains from Unguja and Dar es Salaam. Expression of this P450 is enriched in the abdomen and it is thought to play a role in hydrocarbon synthesis. Microarray and qPCR detected several additional genes putatively involved in this pathway enriched in the Pemba pyrethroid resistant population and we hypothesise that resistance may be, in part, related to alterations in the structure of the mosquito cuticle. None of the kdr target-site mutations, associated with pyrethroid/DDT resistance in An. gambiae elsewhere in Africa, were found on the islands. CONCLUSION: The consequences of this resistance phenotype are discussed in relation to future vector control strategies on Zanzibar to support the ongoing malaria elimination efforts on the islands.

A low-cost repellent for malaria vectors in the Americas: results of two field trials in Guatemala and Peru.

BACKGROUND: The cost of mosquito repellents in Latin America has discouraged their wider use among the poor. To address this problem, a low-cost repellent was developed that reduces the level of expensive repellent actives by combining them with inexpensive fixatives that appear to slow repellent evaporation. The chosen actives were a mixture of para-menthane-diol (PMD) and lemongrass oil (LG). METHODS: To test the efficacy of the repellent, field trials were staged in Guatemala and Peru. Repellent efficacy was determined by human-landing catches on volunteers who wore the experimental repellents, control, or 15% DEET. The studies were conducted using a balanced Latin Square design with volunteers, treatments, and locations rotated each night. RESULTS: In Guatemala, collections were performed for two hours, commencing three hours after repellent application. The repellent provided >98% protection for five hours after application, with a biting pressure of >100 landings per person/hour. The 15% DEET control provided lower protection at 92% (p < 0.0001). In Peru, collections were performed for four hours, commencing two hours after repellent application. The PMD/LG repellent provided 95% protection for six hours after application with a biting pressure of >46 landings per person/hour. The 20% DEET control provided significantly lower protection at 64% (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In both locations, the PMD/LG repellent provided excellent protection up to six hours after application against a wide range of disease vectors including Anopheles darlingi. The addition of fixatives to the repellent extended its longevity while enhancing efficacy and significantly reducing its cost to malaria-endemic communities.