Efficacy and cost-effectiveness of task-shared care for people with severe mental disorders in Ethiopia (TaSCS): a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 3 non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: There have been no trials of task-shared care (TSC) using WHO's mental health Gap Action Programme for people with severe mental disorders (psychosis or affective disorder) in low-income or middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of TSC compared with enhanced specialist mental health care in rural Ethiopia. METHODS: In this single-blind, phase 3, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial, participants had a confirmed diagnosis of a severe mental disorder, recruited from either the community or a local outpatient psychiatric clinic. The intervention was TSC, delivered by supervised, non-physician primary health care workers trained in the mental health Gap Action Programme and working with community health workers. The active comparison group was outpatient psychiatric nurse care augmented with community lay workers (PSY). Our primary endpoint was whether TSC would be non-inferior to PSY at 12 months for the primary outcome of clinical symptom severity using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Expanded version (BPRS-E; non-inferiority margin of 6 points). Randomisation was stratified by health facility using random permuted blocks. Independent clinicians allocated groups using sealed envelopes with concealment and outcome assessors and investigators were masked. We analysed the primary outcome in the modified intention-to-treat group and safety in the per-protocol group. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02308956. FINDINGS: We recruited participants between March 13, 2015 and May 21, 2016. We randomly assigned 329 participants (111 female and 218 male) who were aged 25-72 years and were predominantly of Gurage (198 [60%]), Silte (58 [18%]), and Mareko (53 [16%]) ethnicity. Five participants were found to be ineligible after randomisation, giving a modified intention-to-treat sample of 324. Of these, 12-month assessments were completed in 155 (98%) of 158 in the TSC group and in 158 (95%) of 166 in the PSY group. For the primary outcome, there was no evidence of inferiority of TSC compared with PSY. The mean BPRS-E score was 27·7 (SD 4·7) for TSC and 27·8 (SD 4·6) for PSY, with an adjusted mean difference of 0·06 (90% CI -0·80 to 0·89). Per-protocol analyses (n=291) were similar. There were 47 serious adverse events (18 in the TSC group, 29 in the PSY group), affecting 28 participants. These included 17 episodes of perpetrated violence and seven episodes of violent victimisation leading to injury, ten suicide attempts, six hospital admissions for physical health conditions, four psychiatric admissions, and three deaths (one in the TSC group, two in the PSY group). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for TSC indicated lower cost of -US$299·82 (95% CI -454·95 to -144·69) per unit increase in BPRS-E scores from a health care sector perspective at 12 months. INTERPRETATION: WHO's mental health Gap Action Programme for people with severe mental disorders is as cost-effective as existing specialist models of care and can be implemented effectively and safely by supervised non-specialists in resource-poor settings. FUNDING: US National Institute of Mental Health.

Frailty and the prediction of dependence and mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a 10/66 population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In countries with high incomes, frailty indicators predict adverse outcomes in older people, despite a lack of consensus on definition or measurement. We tested the predictive validity of physical and multidimensional frailty phenotypes in settings in Latin America, India, and China. METHODS: Population-based cohort studies were conducted in catchment area sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, India, and China. Seven frailty indicators, namely gait speed, self-reported exhaustion, weight loss, low energy expenditure, undernutrition, cognitive, and sensory impairment were assessed to estimate frailty phenotypes. Mortality and onset of dependence were ascertained after a median of 3.9 years. RESULTS: Overall, 13,924 older people were assessed at baseline, with 47,438 person-years follow-up for mortality and 30,689 for dependence. Both frailty phenotypes predicted the onset of dependence and mortality, even adjusting for chronic diseases and disability, with little heterogeneity of effect among sites. However, population attributable fractions (PAF) summarising etiologic force were highest for the aggregate effect of the individual indicators, as opposed to either the number of indicators or the dichotomised frailty phenotypes. The aggregate of all seven indicators provided the best overall prediction (weighted mean PAF 41.8 % for dependence and 38.3 % for mortality). While weight loss, underactivity, slow walking speed, and cognitive impairment predicted both outcomes, whereas undernutrition predicted only mortality and sensory impairment only dependence. Exhaustion predicted neither outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Simply assessed frailty indicators identify older people at risk of dependence and mortality, beyond information provided by chronic disease diagnoses and disability. Frailty is likely to be multidimensional. A better understanding of the construct and pathways to adverse outcomes could inform multidimensional assessment and intervention to prevent or manage dependence in frail older people, with potential to add life to years, and years to life.

Dementia incidence and mortality in middle-income countries, and associations with indicators of cognitive reserve: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve. METHODS: We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3-5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death. FINDINGS: 12,887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11,718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34,718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4-2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9-15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56-5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4-19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56-1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61-0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81-0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95-1·13). INTERPRETATION: Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV.

Measuring disability across cultures--the psychometric properties of the WHODAS II in older people from seven low- and middle-income countries. The 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey.

We evaluated the psychometric properties of the 12-item interviewer-administered screener version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule-version II (WHODAS II) among older people living in seven low- and middle-income countries. Principal component analysis (PCA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and Mokken analyses were carried out to test for unidimensionality, hierarchical structure, and measurement invariance across 10/66 Dementia Research Group sites. PCA generated a one-factor solution in most sites. In CFA, the two-factor solution generated in Dominican Republic fitted better for all sites other than rural China. The two factors were not easily interpretable, and may have been an artefact of differing item difficulties. Strong internal consistency and high factor loadings for the one-factor solution supported unidimensionality. Furthermore, the WHODAS II was found to be a 'strong' Mokken scale. Measurement invariance was supported by the similarity of factor loadings across sites, and by the high between-site correlations in item difficulties. The Mokken results strongly support that the WHODAS II 12-item screener is a unidimensional and hierarchical scale confirming to item response theory (IRT) principles, at least at the monotone homogeneity model level. More work is needed to assess the generalizability of our findings to different populations.

Cluster randomised controlled trial of an educational outreach visit to improve influenza and pneumococcal immunisation rates in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Improvement in the delivery of influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations to high-risk groups is an important aspect of preventive care for primary healthcare teams. AIM: To investigate the effect of an educational outreach visit to primary healthcare teams on influenza and pneumococcal vaccination uptake in high-risk patients. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Thirty general practices in the Trent region, UK. METHODS: Fifteen practices were randomised to intervention and 15 to the control group after stratifying for baseline vaccination rate. All intervention practices were offered and received an educational outreach visit to primary healthcare teams, in addition to audit and feedback directed at improving influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates in high-risk groups. Control practices received audit and feedback alone. All practices measured influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates in high-risk groups. Primary outcomes were improvements in vaccination rates in patients aged 65 years and over, and patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes and a history of splenectomy. RESULTS: Improvements in pneumococcal vaccination rates in the intervention practices were significantly greater compared with controls in patients with CHD, 14.8% versus 6.5% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13 to 1.34) and diabetes, 15.5% versus 6.8% (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.29) but not splenectomy, 6.5% versus 4.7% (OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.42). Improvements for influenza vaccination were also usually greater in intervention practices but did not reach statistical significance. The increases for influenza vaccination in intervention versus control practices were for CHD, 18.1% versus 13.1% (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.12); diabetes, 15.5% versus 12.0% (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.16), splenectomy 16.1% versus 2.9% (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.78 to 1.93); and those over 65 years 20.7% versus 25.4% (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.02). CONCLUSION: Practices where primary care teams received an educational outreach visit demonstrated a significantly greater improvement in uptake in high-risk groups for pneumococcal but not influenza vaccine.