Wastewater monitoring for detection of public health markers during the COVID-19 pandemic: Near-source monitoring of schools in England over an academic year.

BACKGROUND: Schools are high-risk settings for infectious disease transmission. Wastewater monitoring for infectious diseases has been used to identify and mitigate outbreaks in many near-source settings during the COVID-19 pandemic, including universities and hospitals but less is known about the technology when applied for school health protection. This study aimed to implement a wastewater surveillance system to detect SARS-CoV-2 and other public health markers from wastewater in schools in England. METHODS: A total of 855 wastewater samples were collected from 16 schools (10 primary, 5 secondary and 1 post-16 and further education) over 10 months of school term time. Wastewater was analysed for SARS-CoV-2 genomic copies of N1 and E genes by RT-qPCR. A subset of wastewater samples was sent for genomic sequencing, enabling determination of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of variant(s) contributing to COVID-19 infections within schools. In total, >280 microbial pathogens and >1200 AMR genes were screened using RT-qPCR and metagenomics to consider the utility of these additional targets to further inform on health threats within the schools. RESULTS: We report on wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 within English primary, secondary and further education schools over a full academic year (October 2020 to July 2021). The highest positivity rate (80.4%) was observed in the week commencing 30th November 2020 during the emergence of the Alpha variant, indicating most schools contained people who were shedding the virus. There was high SARS-CoV-2 amplicon concentration (up to 9.2x106 GC/L) detected over the summer term (8th June - 6th July 2021) during Delta variant prevalence. The summer increase of SARS-CoV-2 in school wastewater was reflected in age-specific clinical COVID-19 cases. Alpha variant and Delta variant were identified in the wastewater by sequencing of samples collected from December to March and June to July, respectively. Lead/lag analysis between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in school and WWTP data sets show a maximum correlation between the two-time series when school data are lagged by two weeks. Furthermore, wastewater sample enrichment coupled with metagenomic sequencing and rapid informatics enabled the detection of other clinically relevant viral and bacterial pathogens and AMR. CONCLUSIONS: Passive wastewater monitoring surveillance in schools can identify cases of COVID-19. Samples can be sequenced to monitor for emerging and current variants of concern at the resolution of school catchments. Wastewater based monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 is a useful tool for SARS-CoV-2 passive surveillance and could be applied for case identification and containment, and mitigation in schools and other congregate settings with high risks of transmission. Wastewater monitoring enables public health authorities to develop targeted prevention and education programmes for hygiene measures within undertested communities across a broad range of use cases.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: In Iran, trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality have generally been monitored at national level. The purpose of this study is to examine province-level disparities in age-standardised breast cancer incidence versus mortality from 2000 to 2010 and their association with socioeconomic status. METHODS: In this study, data from Iran's national cancer and death registry systems, and covariates from census and household expenditure surveys were used. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates in women aged more than 30 years for all 31 provinces in the consecutive time intervals 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2010 using a Bayesian spatial model. RESULTS: Mean age-standardised breast cancer incidence across provinces increased over time from 15.0 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval 12.0,18.3) in 2000-2003 to 39.6 (34.5,45.1) in 2008-2010. The mean breast cancer mortality rate declined from 10.9 (8.3,13.8) to 9.9 (7.5,12.5) deaths per 100,000 people in the same period. When grouped by wealth index quintiles, provinces in the highest quintile had higher levels of incidence and mortality. In the wealthiest quintile, reductions in mortality over time were larger than those observed among provinces in the poorest quintile. Relative breast cancer mortality decreased by 16.7% in the highest quintile compared to 10.8% in the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer incidence has increased over time, with lower incidence in the poorest provinces likely driven by underdiagnoses or late-stage diagnosis. Although the reported mortality rate is still higher in wealthier provinces, the larger decline over time in these provinces indicates a possible future reversal, with the most deprived provinces having higher mortality rates. Ongoing analysis of incidence and mortality at sub-national level is crucial in addressing inequalities in healthcare systems and public health both in Iran and elsewhere.

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. METHODS: Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. RESULTS: The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in women and children's nutritional status in Pakistan in 2011: an analysis of data from a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has one of the highest levels of child and maternal undernutrition worldwide, but little information about geographical and socioeconomic inequalities is available. We aimed to analyse anthropometric indicators for childhood and maternal nutrition at a district level in Pakistan and assess the association of nutritional status with food security and maternal and household socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We used data from the 2011 Pakistan National Nutrition Survey, which included anthropometric measurements for 33 638 children younger than 5 years and 24 826 women of childbearing age. We estimated the prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children and of underweight, overweight, and obesity in women for all 143 districts of Pakistan using a Bayesian spatial technique. We used a mixed-effect linear model to analyse the association of nutritional status with individual and household sociodemographic factors and food security. FINDINGS: Stunting prevalence in Pakistan's districts ranged between 22% (95% credible interval 19-26) and 76% (69-83); the lowest figures for wasting and underweight were both less than 2·5% and the highest were 42% (34-50) for wasting and 54% (49-59) for underweight. In 106 districts, more women were overweight than were underweight; in 49 of these districts more women were obese than were underweight. Children were better nourished if their mothers were taller or had higher weight, if they lived in wealthier households, and if their mothers had 10 or more years of education. Severe food insecurity was associated with worse nutritional outcomes for both children and women. INTERPRETATION: We noted large social and geographical inequalities in child and maternal nutrition in Pakistan, masked by national and provincial averages. Pakistan is also beginning to face the concurrent challenge of high burden of childhood undernutrition and overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age. Planning, implementation, and evaluation of programmes for food and nutrition should be based on district-level needs and outcomes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grand Challenges Canada, UK Medical Research Council.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses.

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the country's stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

Access to antenatal care and children's cognitive development: a comparative analysis in Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam and India.

OBJECTIVES: Early life interventions are considered essential for reducing the burden of health inequalities over the life course. This paper tests this issue empirically focusing on whether access to antenatal care can later reduce children's health and educational inequalities. METHODS: Data came from the Young Lives Project for Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam, and the State of Andhra Pradesh in India. We selected children born in early 2001/2002 and who were followed longitudinally in 2006/2007. We used multilevel mixed effects linear regression models to estimate the parameters of interest. RESULTS: We found a positive and significant relationship between mothers' access to antenatal care and their children's cognitive development in all countries. In addition, we found a positive and significant relationship between antenatal care and children's cognitive development for stunted children but only in Peru and Vietnam. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that (1) antenatal care has the potential to change the negative consequences of early nutritional deficiencies on later cognitive development in Peru and Vietnam; (2) differentials in the quality of antenatal care services could explain the cross-country differentials in the role of early life interventions found here.

Human fertility: sociodemographic aspects.

This study analyzes the sociodemographic factors at the root of the reduction in fertility in developed countries and the way in which these are correlated to the increase in levels of infertility. The postponement of marriage and of bearing the first child, the transition still underway toward nontraditional family forms and unfavorable economic and institutional factors explain a considerable part of the increase in levels of infertility.