The risk of the introduction of classical swine fever virus at regional level in the European Union: a conceptual framework.

Recent classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the European Union (EU) have clearly shown that preventing the introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) deserves high priority. Insight into all the factors contributing to the risk of CSFV introduction is a prerequisite for deciding which preventive actions are cost-effective. The relations between virus introduction and spread, prevention and control, and economic losses have been described using the conceptual framework presented in this paper. A pathway diagram provides insight into all the pathways contributing to the likelihood of CSFV introduction (LVI_CSF) into regions of the EU. A qualitative assessment based on this pathway diagram shows that regions with high pig densities generally have a higher LVI_CSF, although this cannot be attributed to pig density only. The pathway diagram was also used to qualitatively assess the reduction in LVI_CSF achieved by restructuring the pig production sector. Especially integrated chains of industrialised pig farming reduce the LVI_CSF considerably, but are also difficult and costly to implement. Quantitative assessment of the LVI_CSF on the basis of the pathway diagram is needed to support the results of the qualitative assessments described.

An economic model for on-farm decision support of management to prevent infectious disease introduction into dairy farms.

A more-closed farming system can be a good starting point for eradication of infectious diseases from within a herd. The economic implications of a more-closed farming system will not always be obvious to farmers. The management decisions are related to different parts of the farm and are farm-specific. To support these decisions, a model was developed of the economic consequences of a more-closed system (a simple static and deterministic design was used). The risk factors in the model were based solely on bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) but losses due to introduction of BVDV, L. hardjo, and S. dublin were added to the model. The model was verified and partly validated and a sensitivity analysis was done. The cost to one 55-cow dairy farm that refrained from purchasing cattle, provided protective clothing to professional visitors and a temporary employee, and built and maintained a double fence around 6 ha of land to prevent over-the-fence contacts was Dfl. 4495 over 5 years. The probability of disease introduction was decreased by 74%. The prevented losses for disease introduction amounted to Dfl. 7033 over 5 years (net benefits of Dfl. 2538 over 5 years).A more-closed system would be still beneficial when a sanitary barrier was used instead of just protective clothing, when the probability of introduction of infectious diseases was decreased, and when odds ratios in the model were replaced by more-conservative relative risks. The benefits became negative when a farm had to build and maintain a double fence around 12 ha instead of 6 ha, when the probability of introduction of all diseases was decreased by 50%, and when the estimations were based solely on BHV1.

Spatial and stochastic simulation to compare two emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever epidemic.

Two alternative emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine that could have been applied in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic were evaluated in a modified spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model: InterCSF. In strategy 1, vaccination would be applied only to overcome a shortage in destruction capacities. Destruction of all pigs on vaccinated farms distinguishes this strategy from strategy 2, which assumes intra-Community trade of vaccinated pig meat. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and three contact types. Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms. Economic results were generated by a separate model that calculated the direct costs (including the vaccination costs) and consequential losses for farmers and related industries subjected to control measures. The comparison (using epidemiological and economic results) between the different emergency-vaccination strategies with an earlier simulated preventive-slaughter scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF epidemic. Both emergency-vaccination strategies were hardly more efficient than the non-vaccination scenario. The intra-Community trade strategy (vaccination-strategy 2) was the least costly of all three scenarios.

Optimization of dairy heifer management decisions based on production conditions of Pennsylvania.

We used a dynamic programming model to determine optimum rearing decisions of dairy replacements. Heifers were described in the model by age, season, body weight, pregnancy state, and prepubertal growth rate. Prices and parameters were chosen to represent the dairy population of Pennsylvania. We calculated monthly costs and revenues from calf value, feed costs, veterinary costs, semen costs, carcass value, and full-grown heifer value. The model considered a stochastic variation in the onset of puberty, conception, involuntary disposal, and a seasonal variation in the prices of calves, heifers, and feed. Based on a critical prepubertal average daily gain of 0.9 kg/d and a maximum achievable postpubertal growth rate of 1.1 kg/d, the optimum practice resulted in an average age at first calving of 20.5 mo at a body weight of 563 kg. Discounted net returns equaled $107 per heifer per year. The optimum rearing practice was not sensitive to seasonal variation in prices. Nevertheless, the economic results per season of birth varied considerably; the highest income per heifer was obtained from heifers born in December ($142/yr), whereas those born in May yielded the lowest ($100/yr). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated a considerable influence of growth rate restrictions and variation in reproductive performance on both the optimal rearing practices as the expected net returns.

Evaluating control strategies for outbreaks in BHV1-free areas using stochastic and spatial simulation.

Several countries within the EU have successfully eradicated bovine herpesvirus type I (BHV1), while others are still making efforts to eradicate the virus. Reintroduction of the virus into BHV1-free areas can lead to major outbreaks - thereby causing severe economic losses. To give decision-makers more insight into the risk and economic consequences of BHV1 reintroduction and into the effectiveness of various control strategies, we developed the simulation model InterIBR. InterIBR is a dynamic model that takes into account risk and uncertainty and the geographic location of individual farms. Simulation of a BHV1-outbreak in the Netherlands starts with introduction of the virus on a predefined farm type, after which both within-farm and between-farm transmission are simulated. Monitoring and control measures are implemented to simulate detection of the infection and subsequent control. Economic consequences included in this study are related to losses due to infection and costs of control. In the simulated basic control strategy, dairy farms are monitored by monthly bulk-milk tests and miscellaneous farms are monitored by half-yearly serological tests. After detection, movement-control measures apply, animal contacts are traced and neighbour farms are put on surveillance. Given current assumptions on transmission dynamics, we conclude that a strategy with either rapid removal or vaccination of infected cattle does not reduce the number of infected farms compared to this basic strategy - but will cost more to control. Farm type with first introduction of BHV1 has a considerable impact on the expected number of secondarily infected farms and total costs. To limit the number of infected farms and total costs due to outbreaks, we suggest intensifying the monitoring program on farms with a high frequency of cattle trade, and monthly bulk-milk testing on dairy farms.

Monte Carlo simulation of virus introduction into the Netherlands.

In order to improve the understanding of the risk of introducing classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Netherlands, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed. The model, VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation model) describes virus introduction into the Netherlands from outbreaks in other European countries. VIRiS is aimed at supporting decision makers involved in disease prevention. The model is based on historical and experimental data, supplemented with expert judgement, and provides the expected number, location and cause of primary outbreaks in the Netherlands. The paper gives a detailed description of the design and behaviour of VIRiS. The default outcomes of VIRiS show that in the current situation, the western and northern regions of the Netherlands are most prone to outbreaks of CSF and FMD. Most outbreaks originate from the countries neighbouring the Netherlands and the countries of southern Europe. Several alternative prevention strategies were evaluated using a combination of the VIRiS model and models describing the spread and economic consequences of outbreaks. A considerable financial window is available for measures aimed at speeding up the detection of epidemics in countries from which a Dutch outbreak may originate. Complete elimination of the risk associated with the risk factor 'returning trucks' reduces the annual losses due to FMD and CSF epidemics by approximately US$ 9 million. The approach is general and could also be applied to other diseases and countries.

Relationships between dairy cow mastitis and fertility management and farm performance.

A field study was carried out on 38 dairy farms in the Netherlands to determine the relationship between mastitis and fertility management with 305-day milk production and gross margin. Questionnaires were used to get insight into the farmers' management. Out of 150 variables related to mastitis and fertility management, and technical and economic results, 44 variables were selected based on correlation of > or = 0.25 or < or = -0.25 with milk production and/or gross margin. These variables were used in two separate partial least squares (PLS) analyses. PLS has the advantage that it can handle a large number of variables in relation to the number of cases. The PLS-model of 305-day milk production had R2 = 0.54 and showed a positive relation between 305-day milk production and awareness of the farmer regarding bulk somatic-cell count (BSCC), the goal level of the farmer for BSCC, and hygiene of the milking parlour. Fertility was negatively related to 305-day milk production, in spite of a relatively good fertility management on high-producing farms. R2 = 0.46 for gross margin. The aspiration level of fertility did not seem to affect gross margin, but awareness of BSCC and calving interval (CI) had positive effects. Such awareness seemed a general parameter for good economic results, because it was correlated with different aspects of gross margin.

Repeatability in ranking of dairy farms on technical and economic performance over years.

Repeatability of farm average 305-day milk production and gross margin per 100 kg of milk was evaluated for 39 farms. Ranking of gross margin, its underlying factors (i.e. milk price, returns from cull cows and calves, costs of concentrates, and costs of roughage purchases per 100 kg of milk), and 305-day milk production was not completely random over the four years of the study. The coefficient of concordance ranged between 0.55 and 0.82. The costs of roughage purchased had the lowest concordance over time, and 305-day milk production had the highest concordance. For each year and each farm, the difference between average gross margin and farm-specific gross margin was calculated. The standard deviations (SD) of these values was calculated for each farm, and showed differences between farms in variability in gross margin over years (the farm-year-specific SD varied between farms from 0.56 to 5.73). All the underlying factors showed a deviation over years. So, variability of gross margin can be due to changes in all underlying factors. The impact on gross margin of purchased roughage was not of major importance because its absolute impact on the gross margin is small. We concluded that milk-production data over one year is a reliable indicator for the typical farm milk production. Because gross margin fluctuates considerably over time, however it is preferred to base economic research on data from more than one year.

A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes.

A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fever outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, including governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is applied to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. Results show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 billion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for governments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. The model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries.

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. I. Description of simulation model.

The simulation model InterCSF was developed to simulate the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997-98 as closely as possible. InterCSF is a spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model. The outcomes of the various replications give an estimate of the variation in size and duration of possible CSF-epidemics. InterCSF simulates disease spread from an infected farm to other farms through three contact types (animals, vehicles, persons) and through local spread up to a specified distance. The main disease-control mechanisms that influence the disease spread in InterCSF are diagnosis of the infected farms, depopulation of infected farms, movement-control areas, tracing, and pre-emptive slaughter. InterCSF was developed using InterSpread as the basis. InterSpread was developed for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This paper describes the process of modifying InterSpread into InterCSF. This involved changing the assumptions and mechanisms for disease spread from FMD to CSF. In addition, CSF-specific control measures based on the standard European Union (EU) regulations were included, as well as additional control measures that were applied during the Dutch epidemic. To adapt InterCSF as closely as possible to the Dutch 1997/98 epidemic, data from the real epidemic were analysed. Both disease spread and disease-control parameters were thus specifically based on the real epidemic. In general, InterSpread turned out to be a flexible tool that could be adapted to simulate another disease with relative ease. The most difficult were the modifications necessary to mimic the real epidemic as closely as possible. The model was well able to simulate an epidemic with a similar pattern over time for number of detected farms as the real outbreak; but the absolute numbers were (despite many relevant modifications) not exactly the same--but were within an acceptable range. Furthermore, the development of InterCSF provided the researchers with a better insight into the existing knowledge gaps. In part II (see the final paper in this issue), InterCSF was used to compare various control strategies as applied to this epidemic.

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies.

Using the spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model InterCSF, several alternative pre-emptive slaughter strategies that could have been applied in the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997-1998 were evaluated. Furthermore, effects of changes in some disease-spread and disease-control parameters were studied. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and contacts (animals, transport and persons). Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms (e.g. depopulation of infected farms, pre-emptive slaughter, movement control). The starting point for the evaluation of strategies was a simulated basic scenario, which mimicked the real epidemic. Strategies were compared using epidemiological as well as economic results. Economic results were generated by a separate model (EpiLoss) that calculated the direct losses and consequential losses for farmers and related industries. The comparison of the different alternatives to the basic scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF-epidemic. Pre-emptive slaughter seemed to be an effective strategy to reduce the size of an epidemic, if started at an early stage. Economically, pre-emptive slaughter was not as expensive as expected; the resulting smaller size of the epidemic, combined with less welfare slaughter, led to much lower overall losses. Furthermore, although large movement control areas seemed effective in reducing the size of the epidemic, the total losses were relatively high because of subsequent welfare slaughter. If infection probabilities could be reduced, for example by improved biosecurity, the resulting epidemics would be much smaller.

An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate the spread and control of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in The Netherlands.

Bovine herpesvirus type I (BHV1), causing infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), was introduced in the Netherlands in 1971. In 1993, about 42% of the dairy cows had antibodies against BHV1. In the future, stricter requirements are anticipated regarding the health status of exported breeding cows and material. To support policymakers in their decisions on IBR eradication, a simulation model was developed in which the epidemiological and economic consequences of various control strategies were evaluated. This paper describes the model and provides an overview of some important outcomes. In the model, dairy herds were classified into different disease states based on (1) the reproduction ratio of the disease (R, defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one infectious animal) (2) the within-herd prevalence, within each value of R and (3) the expected number of infectious animals in an infectious herd within each prevalence range. The dynamic transition probability of a herd going from one state to another per week depends on direct contacts between animals, and other contacts such as transmission through fomites, indirect transmission through other species, airborne transmission and minor disease-specific routes such as venereal or iatrogenic transmission. Five control strategies, including both a voluntary vaccination program and a compulsory vaccination program for all dairy herds were evaluated. A voluntary vaccination program with 50% participation is not expected to lead to eradication of IBR. It appears that compulsory vaccination would be necessary to reach an IBR-free status.

[BVD outbreak can be costly: a case report]. / BVD-uitbraak kan kostbaar zijn: een praktijkgeval.

The losses caused by an BVD-outbreak on a Dutch dairy farm with approximately 100 dairy cows were determined. In this particular farm, calves which were born around the same time as a detected carrier calf were not sampled. These carrier calves were kept on as replacement heifers and caused additional loss on top of the losses already caused by the primary outbreak. The total economic loss was more than f 96.000,- or nearly f 1000,-per cow. This case report illustrates the potential for serious economic loss when an BVD free herd is reinfected combined with less adequate control measures.

Exploratory study on the economic value of a closed farming system on Dutch dairy farms.

A closed farming system may prevent the introduction of infectious diseases on to dairy farms and could be a good starting point for the eradication of these diseases. In order to introduce a closed farming system, farmers need to be made aware of how these diseases are introduced into the herd. Farmers will be more likely to implement a closed farming system when the economic value is quantified and attractive. An exploratory study was carried out to investigate the technical and economic results of closed dairy farms. Farms that purchased cattle and/or shared pasture (defined as 'open' farms) differed in technical results from farms that did not ('closed' farms). The results of the discriminant analysis showed that the 'closed' farms incurred lower costs for veterinary services, had a lower average age at first calving and a higher birth rate per 100 dairy cows. A linear regression analysis was carried out to investigate the influence of the farming system on economic performance. Being 'closed' was found to increase the net profit by 0.31 Pound per 100 kg of milk, or approximately 25 Pounds per cow per year or 5 per cent of the typical net return to labour and management (1 Pound = Dfl 2.80 in November 1996).

[Introduction of BHV1 on dairy farms. Risk assessment by cattle farmers and veterinarians]. / Insleep van IBR op melkveebedrijven. De beoordeling van de risico's van veehouders en dierenartsen.

A study is being carried out at Wageningen Agricultural University together with, among others, the Animal Health Service to determine the possibilities and economic consequences of a more closed farming system for (Dutch) dairy farms. Three identical workshops, held in the evening, were organized as part of the study. The opinion of farmers and their veterinarians on the importance of risk factors for the introduction of diseases on a farm was determined, using Bovine Herpes Virus type 1 (BHV1) as an example. In total, 27 farmers and 13 veterinarians participated in the workshops and completed a computerized questionnaire that was based on Adapted Conjoint Analysis (ACA). The results of the farmers and veterinarians were compared. Both farmers and veterinarians seemed well aware of the risk of direct animal contacts for introduction of BHV1. Farmers thought visitors to be of more risk than veterinarians. By making use of information obtained from the ACA workshops, it will be possible to improve the advice given to different groups in the dairy sector.

Technical and economic models to support heifer management decisions: basic concepts.

To maximize herd profits, dairy farmers are faced with the complex dilemma of minimizing costs that are associated with rearing heifers while ensuring or enhancing lifetime economic productivity. Decisions about heifer management interact with underlying biological aspects of growth, thereby influencing future profitability. A thorough understanding of these biological interactions is lacking. Studies based on models could be useful in the evaluation of various rearing strategies. Currently available models for dairy cattle primarily focus on the dairy cow. In a dairy farm production system, management decisions concerning the rearing of livestock and the replacement of dairy cows strongly influence each other. In a model that describes the dairy herd as a multiple-component system, opportunity is greater to coordinate rearing and replacement policies. Expected benefits of such a model are discussed.

Economic evaluation of national identification and recording systems for pigs in Belgium.

Four national identification and recording (I&R) systems for the Belgian pig industry were evaluated economically, using a computer simulation model. These systems were: (1) the previous system; (2) a revised system (based on the previous one); (3) a system based on electronic identification; (4) a system similar to (3) but which also allows electronic monitoring of individual pigs. The evaluation of the systems particularly concerned their use in the control of classical swine fever (CSF). Four factors have shown to be very influential in economic decision making with respect to I&R systems: (1) the economic losses per CSF epidemic; (2) the frequency of CSF epidemics; (3) the operational costs of the I&R system; (4) the possibility of additional use of the system besides CSF control. It was concluded that for the Belgian situation, replacement of the previous I&R system by the revised one is economically justifiable. Because of high operational costs, electronic identification systems are only economically feasible in very specific situations, e.g. when a higher degree of additional use is possible or with a relatively high frequency of CSF epidemics.

Risks and economic consequences of introducing classical swine fever into The Netherlands by feeding swill to swine.

An effective animal disease prevention and eradication programme is of great importance for meat-exporting countries such as the Netherlands. If a serious outbreak of disease were to occur, the eradication measures required by the European Union and a possible ban on meat exports would have severe economic consequences. However, historical and experimental information on which these programmes can be based is scarce. Furthermore, until recently, an integrated approach which combined the various aspects of outbreaks and risks with economic consequences was lacking. This paper describes a project based on such an integrated approach. The project covered the elicitation of expert knowledge and the development of the virus introduction risk simulation model (VIRiS). VIRiS integrates objective and subjective information concerning risks and consequences of virus introduction, and thus presents policy-makers with a useful tool for the evaluation of existing prevention programmes and possible alternatives. VIRiS is illustrated for classical swine fever. A comparison is made between the current situation and a hypothetical situation where the risk factor 'swill feeding' is completely eliminated.

Cost-benefit analysis of vaccination against paratuberculosis in dairy cattle.

Paratuberculosis is an infectious and incurable disease which causes considerable economic losses in dairy cattle, due mainly to premature disposal and losses of milk production. In 1984 the Animal Health Service North-Netherlands started a vaccination trial in which young calves were vaccinated once, to test whether vaccination reduced the production losses and whether the overall costs of vaccination were outweighed by the benefits. Vaccination against paratuberculosis reduced the number of clinically infected animals by almost 90 per cent. It also reduced the numbers of subclinically infected animals and animals with a positive histological and/or bacteriological test result. Although vaccination did not prevent losses in milk production, it reduced the infection pressure and the clinical signs of the disease. Partial budgeting showed that vaccination against paratuberculosis was highly profitable. The costs of vaccination were US$15 per cow and the benefits (total returns minus costs) were US$142 per cow.