A sustainable development goal framework to guide multisectoral action on NAFLD through a societal approach.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent condition that requires a comprehensive and coordinated response across sectors and disciplines. AIMS: In the absence of a multisectoral framework to tackle this condition, we developed one using the sustainable development goals (SDGs) as the basis for converging thinking about the design and delivery of public health responses. METHODS: A multidisciplinary group identified the SDG targets and indicators for inclusion in the new framework through a two-stage process. Firstly, a core team of three researchers independently reviewed the 169 targets and 231 indicators of the SDGs to select a shortlist. Over two Delphi rounds, a multidisciplinary group of 12 experts selected which of the shortlisted targets and indicators to include. Respondents also provided written feedback on their selection. Targets and indicators with 75% or greater agreement were included in the final framework. RESULTS: The final framework comprises 16 targets-representing 9% of all targets and 62% (16/26) of the shortlisted targets-and seven indicators, accounting for 50% (7/14) of the shortlisted indicators and 3% of all indicators. The selected targets and indicators cover a broad range of factors, from health, food and nutrition to education, the economy, and the built environment. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the challenge of NAFLD will require a re-envisioning of the liver health landscape, with greater focus on joined-up systems thinking and action. This new framework can help guide this process, including by outlining the stakeholders with whom the liver health community needs to engage.

Intelligent Liver Function Testing: Working Smarter to Improve Patient Outcomes in Liver Disease.

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a significant health problem affecting millions of people worldwide. In Scotland, CLD is a major cause of premature mortality. Liver function tests (LFTs) are a panel of frequently requested blood tests which may indicate liver disease. However, LFTs commonly contain at least one abnormal result, and abnormalities are rarely investigated to the extent recommended by national guidelines. The intelligent Liver Function Testing (iLFT) pathway is a novel, automated system designed to improve early diagnosis of liver disease. Initial abnormal LFT results trigger a cascade of reflexive testing to help identify the cause of any liver dysfunction. Algorithms combine these results with demographic and clinical data (such as patient age, body mass index, and alcohol intake) and fibrosis estimates to produce an electronic diagnosis and management plan. The pilot trial demonstrated that iLFT increased diagnosis of liver disease whilst remaining cost-effective. As such, iLFT has been fully operational across our region (NHS Tayside, Scotland) since August 2018. In the first year, iLFT generated over 2000 diagnoses from 1824 patient samples with an abnormality in the initial LFTs. The majority of these patients could be safely managed in primary care. iLFT allows maximal value to be obtained from liver blood tests across biochemistry, virology, immunology, and hematology with only minor changes to working practices. 'Intelligent', algorithm-led testing pathways break down the barrier between clinical and laboratory medicine and offer solutions to many of the challenges experienced in modern healthcare systems.

Eradicating hepatitis C: Are novel screening strategies for people who inject drugs cost-effective?

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), yet they are often under-diagnosed. The World Health Organization has set 2030 as a target year for HCV elimination. To meet this target, improving screening in convenient community settings in order to reach infected undiagnosed individuals is a priority. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of alternative novel strategies for diagnosing HCV infection in PWID. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to compare HCV screening at needle exchange centres, substance misuse services and at community pharmacies, with the standard practice of detection during general practitioners' consultations. A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental cost per positive diagnosis, and a Markov model explored the net monetary benefit (NMB) and the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Needle exchange services provided a 7.45-fold increase in detecting positive individuals and an incremental cost of £12,336 per QALY gained against current practice (NMB £163,827), making this the most cost-effective strategy over a lifetime horizon. Screening at substance misuse services and pharmacies was cost-effective only at a £30,000/QALY threshold. With a 24% discount to HCV treatment list prices, all three screening strategies become cost-effective at £20,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting PWID populations with screening at needle exchange services is a highly cost-effective strategy for reaching undiagnosed HCV patients. When applying realistic discounts to list prices of drug treatments, all three strategies were highly cost-effective from a UK NHS perspective. All of these strategies have the potential to make a cost-effective contribution to the eradication of HCV by 2030.

Evaluating the population impact of hepatitis C direct acting antiviral treatment as prevention for people who inject drugs (EPIToPe) - a natural experiment (protocol).

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV 'Treatment as Prevention' (TasP) in PWID. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome - chronic HCV prevalence in PWID - is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a 'virtual cohort' of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Extending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C, ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.

Intelligent liver function testing (iLFT): A trial of automated diagnosis and staging of liver disease in primary care.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver function tests (LFTs) are frequently requested blood tests which may indicate liver disease. LFTs are commonly abnormal, the causes of which can be complex and are frequently under investigated. This can lead to missed opportunities to diagnose and treat liver disease at an early stage. We developed an automated investigation algorithm, intelligent liver function testing (iLFT), with the aim of increasing the early diagnosis of liver disease in a cost-effective manner. METHODS: We developed an automated system that further investigated abnormal LFTs on initial testing samples to generate a probable diagnosis and management plan. We integrated this automated investigation algorithm into the laboratory management system, based on minimal diagnostic criteria, liver fibrosis estimation, and reflex testing for causes of liver disease. This algorithm then generated a diagnosis and/or management plan. A stepped-wedged trial design was utilised to compare LFT outcomes in general practices in the 6 months before and after introduction of the iLFT system. Diagnostic outcomes were collated and compared. RESULTS: Of eligible patients with abnormal LFTs, 490 were recruited to the control group and 64 were recruited to the intervention group. The primary diagnostic outcome was based on the general practitioner diagnosis, which agreed with the iLFT diagnosis in 67% of cases. In the iLFT group, the diagnosis of liver disease was increased by 43%. Additionally, there were significant increases in the rates of GP visits after diagnosis and the number of referrals to secondary care in the iLFT group. iLFT was cost-effective with a low initial incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £284 per correct diagnosis, and a saving to the NHS of £3,216 per patient lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: iLFT increases liver disease diagnoses, improves quality of care, and is highly cost-effective. This can be achieved with minor changes to working practices and exploitation of functionality existing within modern laboratory diagnostics systems. LAY SUMMARY: There is a growing epidemic of advanced liver disease, this could be offset by early detection and management. Checking liver blood tests (LFTs) should be an opportunity to diagnose liver problems, but abnormal results are often incompletely investigated. In this study we were able to substantially increase the diagnostic yield of the abnormal LFTs using the automated intelligent LFT system. With the addition of referral recommendations and management plans, this strategy provides optimum investigation and management of LFTs and is cost saving to the NHS.

Clinical effectiveness of pharmacy-led versus conventionally delivered antiviral treatment for hepatitis C in patients receiving opioid substitution therapy: a study protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects 0.7% of the general population, and up to 40% of people prescribed opioid substitution therapy (OST) in Scotland. In conventional care, less than 10% of OST users are tested for HCV and less than 25% of these initiate treatment. Community pharmacists see this group frequently to provide OST supervision. This study examines whether a pharmacist-led 'test & treat' pathway increases cure rates for HCV. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a cluster-randomised trial where 60 community pharmacies provide either conventional or pharmacy-led care. All pharmacies offer dried blood spot testing (DBST) for HCV. Participants have attended the pharmacy for OST for 3 months; are positive for HCV genotype 1 or 3; are not co-infected with HIV and/or hepatitis B; have no decompensated liver disease; are not pregnant. For conventional care, pharmacists refer HCV-positive participants to a local centre for assessment. In the pharmacy-led arm, pharmacists assess participants themselves in the pharmacy. Drug prescribing is by nurse prescribers (conventional arm) or pharmacist prescribers (pharmacy-led arm). Treatment in both arms is delivered as daily modified directly observed therapy in a pharmacy. Primary trial outcome is number of sustained virological responses at 12 weeks after treatment completion. Secondary trial outcomes are number of tests taken; treatment uptake; completion; adherence; re-infection. An economic evaluation will assess potential cost-effectiveness. Qualitative research interviews with clients and health professionals assess acceptability of a pharmacist-led pathway. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol has been ethically approved by the East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 2 (15/ES/0086) and complies with the Declaration of Helsinki and principles of Good Clinical Practice. Caldicott guardian approval was given on 16 December 2016 to allow NHS Tayside to pass information to the cluster community pharmacies about the HCV test status of patients that they are seeing to provide OST supervision. NHS R&D approvals have been obtained from each health board taking part in the study. Informed consent is obtained before study enrolment and only anonymised data are stored in a secured database, enabling an audit trail. Results will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02706223; Pre-results.

Development and validation of diagnostic triage criteria for liver disease from a minimum data set enabling the 'intelligent LFT' pathway for the automated assessment of deranged liver enzymes.

BACKGROUND: Liver function tests (LFTs) are commonly abnormal; most patients with 'incidental' abnormal LFTs are not investigated appropriately and for those who are, current care pathways are geared to find an explanation for the abnormality by a lengthy process of investigation and exclusion, with costs to the patient and to the health service. OBJECTIVE: To validate an intelligent automatable analysis tool (iLFT) for abnormal liver enzymes, which diagnoses common liver conditions, provides fibrosis stage and recommends management. DESIGN: A retrospective case note review from three tertiary referral liver centres, with application of the iLFT algorithm and comparison with the clinician's final opinion as gold standard. RESULTS: The iLFT algorithm in 91.3% of cases would have correctly recommended referral or management in primary care. In the majority of the rest of the cases, iLFT failed safe and recommended referral even when the final clinical diagnosis could have been managed in primary care. Diagnostic accuracy was achieved in 82.4% of cases, consistent with the fail-safe design of the algorithm. Two cases would have remained in primary care as per the algorithm outcome, however on clinical review had features of advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: iLFT analysis of abnormal liver enzymes offers a safe and robust method of risk stratifying patients to the most appropriate care pathway as well as providing reliable diagnostic information based on a single blood draw, without repeated contacts with health services. Offers the possibility of high quality investigation and diagnosis to all patients rather than a tiny minority.

The Micro-Elimination Approach to Eliminating Hepatitis C: Strategic and Operational Considerations.

The introduction of efficacious new hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments galvanized the World Health Organization to define ambitious targets for eliminating HCV as a public health threat by 2030. Formidable obstacles to reaching this goal can best be overcome through a micro-elimination approach, which entails pursuing elimination goals in discrete populations through multi-stakeholder initiatives that tailor interventions to the needs of these populations. Micro-elimination is less daunting, less complex, and less costly than full-scale, country-level initiatives to eliminate HCV, and it can build momentum by producing small victories that inspire more ambitious efforts. The micro-elimination approach encourages stakeholders who are most knowledgeable about specific populations to engage with each other and also promotes the uptake of new models of care. Examples of micro-elimination target populations include medical patients, people who inject drugs, migrants, and prisoners, although candidate populations can be expected to vary greatly in different countries and subnational areas.

The impact of rifaximin-α on the hospital resource use associated with the management of patients with hepatic encephalopathy: a retrospective observational study (IMPRESS).

OBJECTIVE: To compare all-cause and liver-related hospital resource use in the 6 and 12 months pre-rifaximin-α and post-rifaximin-α initiation in UK patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE). DESIGN: A UK multicentre, retrospective, observational study. Patients' medical records were reviewed for demographics, clinical outcomes and adverse events (AEs) to rifaximin-α. Details of hospital admissions/attendances in the 6 and 12 months pre-rifaximin-α and post-rifaximin-α initiation were extracted from hospital electronic databases. SETTING: 13 National Health Service centres. PATIENTS: 207 patients with HE who initiated rifaximin-α between July 2008 and May 2014. Hospital resource use data were available for 145/207 patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Change in mean number of liver-related hospital bed days/patient (total and critical care) between the 6 months pre-rifaximin-α and post-rifaximin-α initiation. RESULTS: Comparing the 6 months pre-rifaximin-α and post-rifaximin-α initiation in alive patients at the end of the observation period (N=114): there were significant reductions in the mean number of hospitalisations/patient (liver-related 1.3 to 0.5, p<0.001; all-cause 1.9 to 0.9, p<0.001), hospital bed days/patient (liver-related 17.8 to 6.8, p<0.001; all-cause 25.4 to 10.6, p<0.001), 30-day hospital readmissions/patient (liver-related 0.5 to 0.2, p=0.039; all-cause 0.8 to 0.4, p=0.024) and emergency department (ED) attendances/patient (all-cause, 1.0 to 0.5, p<0.001). The mean critical care bed days/patient reduced significantly for all-cause admissions (1.3 to 0.3, p=0.049); non-significant reduction for liver-related admissions. 4% of patients (9/207) developed AEs. CONCLUSIONS: In UK clinical practice, treatment with rifaximin-α for HE is well-tolerated and associated with significant reductions in hospitalisations, bed days (including critical care), ED attendances and 30-day readmissions.

Research priorities to achieve universal access to hepatitis C prevention, management and direct-acting antiviral treatment among people who inject drugs.

Globally, it is estimated that 71.1 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, including an estimated 7.5 million people who have recently injected drugs (PWID). There is an additional large, but unquantified, burden among those PWID who have ceased injecting. The incidence of HCV infection among current PWID also remains high in many settings. Morbidity and mortality due to liver disease among PWID with HCV infection continues to increase, despite the advent of well-tolerated, simple interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV regimens with cure rates >95%. As a result of this important clinical breakthrough, there is potential to reverse the rising burden of advanced liver disease with increased treatment and strive for HCV elimination among PWID. Unfortunately, there are many gaps in knowledge that represent barriers to effective prevention and management of HCV among PWID. The Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney and the International Network on Hepatitis in Substance Users (INHSU) established an expert round table panel to assess current research gaps and establish future research priorities for the prevention and management of HCV among PWID. This round table consisted of a one-day workshop held on 6 September, 2016, in Oslo, Norway, prior to the International Symposium on Hepatitis in Substance Users (INHSU 2016). International experts in drug and alcohol, infectious diseases, and hepatology were brought together to discuss the available scientific evidence, gaps in research, and develop research priorities. Topics for discussion included the epidemiology of injecting drug use, HCV, and HIV among PWID, HCV prevention, HCV testing, linkage to HCV care and treatment, DAA treatment for HCV infection, and reinfection following successful treatment. This paper highlights the outcomes of the roundtable discussion focused on future research priorities for enhancing HCV prevention, testing, linkage to care and DAA treatment for PWID as we strive for global elimination of HCV infection.

The impact on hospital resource utilisation of treatment of hepatic encephalopathy with rifaximin-α.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Rifaximin-α reduces the risk of recurrence of overt hepatic encephalopathy. However, there remain concerns regarding the financial cost of the drug. We aimed to study the impact of treatment with rifaximin-α on healthcare resource utilisation using data from seven UK liver treatment centres. METHODS: All seven centres agreed a standardised data set and data characterising clinical, demographic and emergency hospital admissions were collected retrospectively for the time periods 3, 6 and 12 months before and following initiation of rifaximin-α. Admission rates and hospital length of stay before and during therapy were compared. Costs of admissions and drug acquisition were estimated using published sources. Multivariate analyses were carried out to assess the relative impact of various factors on hospital length of stay. RESULTS: Data were available from 326 patients. Following the commencement of rifaximin, the total hospital length of stay reduced by an estimated 31-53%, equating to a reduction in inpatient costs of between £4858 and £6607 per year. Taking into account drug costs of £3379 for 1-year treatment with rifaximin-α, there was an estimated annual mean saving of £1480-£3228 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of treatment with rifaximin-α was associated with a marked reduction in the number of hospital admissions and hospital length of stay. These data suggest that treatment of patients with rifaximin-α for hepatic encephalopathy was generally cost saving.

Expansion of HCV treatment access to people who have injected drugs through effective translation of research into public health policy: Scotland's experience.

Seven years have elapsed since the Scottish Government launched its Hepatitis C Action Plan - a Plan to improve services to prevent transmission of infection, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), identify those infected and ensure those infected receive optimal treatment. The Plan was underpinned by industrial scale funding (around £100 million, in addition to the general NHS funding, will have been invested by 2015), and a web of accountable national and local multi-disciplinary multi-agency networks responsible for the planning, development and delivery of services. Initiatives ranged from the introduction of testing in specialist drug services through finger-prick blood sampling by non-clinical staff, to the setting of government targets to ensure rapid scale-up of antiviral therapy. The Plan was informed by comprehensive national monitoring systems, indicating the extent of the problem not just in terms of numbers infected, diagnosed and treated but also the more penetrative data on the number advancing to end-stage liver disease and death, and also through compelling modelling work demonstrating the potential beneficial impact of scaling-up therapy and the mounting cost of not acting. Achievements include around 50% increase in the proportion of the infected population diagnosed (38% to 55%); a sustained near two-and-a-half fold increase in the annual number of people initiated onto therapy (470 to 1050) with more pronounced increases among PWID (300 to 840) and prisoners (20 to 140); and reversing of an upward trend in the overall number of people living with chronic infection. The Action Plan has demonstrated that a Government-backed, coordinated and invested approach can transform services and rapidly improve the lives of thousands. Cited as "an impressive example of a national strategy" by the Global Commission on Drug Policy, the Scottish Plan has also provided fundamental insights of international relevance into the management of HCV among PWID.

Health state utilities associated with attributes of treatments for hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Cost-utility analyses are frequently conducted to compare treatments for hepatitis C, which are often associated with complex regimens and serious adverse events. Thus, the purpose of this study was to estimate the utility associated with treatment administration and adverse events of hepatitis C treatments. DESIGN: Health states were drafted based on literature review and clinician interviews. General population participants in the UK valued the health states in time trade-off (TTO) interviews with 10- and 1-year time horizons. The 14 health states described hepatitis C with variations in treatment regimen and adverse events. RESULTS: A total of 182 participants completed interviews (50% female; mean age = 39.3 years). Utilities for health states describing treatment regimens without injections ranged from 0.80 (1 tablet) to 0.79 (7 tablets). Utilities for health states describing oral plus injectable regimens were 0.77 (7 tablets), 0.75 (12 tablets), and 0.71 (18 tablets). Addition of a weekly injection had a disutility of -0.02. A requirement to take medication with fatty food had a disutility of -0.04. Adverse events were associated with substantial disutilities: mild anemia, -0.12; severe anemia, -0.32; flu-like symptoms, -0.21; mild rash, -0.13; severe rash, -0.48; depression, -0.47. One-year TTO scores were similar to these 10-year values. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events and greater treatment regimen complexity were associated with lower utility scores, suggesting a perceived decrease in quality of life beyond the impact of hepatitis C. The resulting utilities may be used in models estimating and comparing the value of treatments for hepatitis C.

Update on the treatment of hepatitis C genotypes 2-6.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The hepatitis C virus remains a global health issue, and the established standard of care has consisted of pegylated interferon alpha in conjunction with ribavirin. However, this regimen is associated with significant side-effects and poor sustained virological responses. The aim of this review is to assess the effects of the direct-acting antivirals upon hepatitis C genotypes 2-6 from publications from the past 18 months. RECENT FINDINGS: The impact of direct-acting antivirals has already substantially improved treatments for genotypes 2-6, with the size of improvement much less marked for genotype 3. Although still responsive to these agents, genotype 3 has inherent resistance to treatments possibly owing to its effects on host metabolic pathways. These treatments have moved sustained virological responses to the threshold of 90%, with reduced side-effects and shortened courses of treatment and some options for interferon-free therapy. These newer medications are transforming clinical guidelines at a rapid rate, but this will have to be balanced with the impact it places on global health budgets. SUMMARY: Although direct-acting antivirals are transforming the treatment of all hepatitis C genotypes, ongoing studies will optimize treatment duration and provide interferon-free alternatives.

Patient-important benefits of clearing the hepatitis C virus through treatment: a simulation model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Given an appreciable risk of adverse-effects, current therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection pose a dilemma to patients. We explored, via simulation modelling, patient-important benefits of attaining a sustained viral response (SVR). METHODS: We created the HCV Individualised Treatment-decision model (the HIT-model) to simulate, on a per patient basis, the lifetime course of HCV-related liver disease according to two distinct scenarios: (i) SVR attained, and (ii) SVR not attained. Then, for each model subject, the course of liver disease under these alternative scenarios was compared. The benefit of SVR was considered in terms of two patient-important outcomes: (1) the percent-probability that SVR confers additional life-years, and (2) the percent-probability that SVR confers additional healthy life-years, where "healthy" refers to years spent in compensated disease states (i.e., the avoidance of liver failure). RESULTS: The benefit of SVR varied strikingly. It was lowest for patients aged 60 years with initially mild fibrosis; 1.6% (95% CI: 0.8-2.7) and 2.9% (95% CI: 1.5-4.7) probability of gaining life-years and healthy life-years, respectively. Whereas it was highest for patients with initially compensated cirrhosis aged 30 years; 57.9% (95% CI: 46.0-69.0) and 67.1% (95% CI: 54.1-78.2) probability of gaining life-years and healthy life-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For older patients with less advanced liver fibrosis, SVR is less likely to confer benefit when measured in terms of averting liver failure and premature death. These data have important implications. Foremost, it may inform the contemporary patient dilemma of immediate treatment with existing therapies (that have poor adverse effect profiles) vs. awaiting future regimens that promise better tolerability.

Quantifying the fraction of cirrhosis attributable to alcohol among chronic hepatitis C virus patients: implications for treatment cost-effectiveness.

UNLABELLED: A substantial baseline risk of liver cirrhosis exists for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, the extent to which this could be driven by heavy alcohol use is unclear. Therefore, our principal aim was to determine the fraction of cirrhosis attributable to heavy alcohol use among chronic HCV patients attending a liver clinic. The study population comprised chronic HCV patients who had attended one of five liver clinics in Scotland during 1996-2010 and had (1) remained in follow-up for at least 6 months, (2) acquired HCV through either injecting drugs or blood transfusion, and (3) an estimated date of acquiring infection. Predictors of cirrhosis were determined from multivariate logistic regression. Regression parameters were used to determine the fraction of cirrhosis attributable to heavy alcohol use. Among 1,620 patients, 9% were diagnosed with cirrhosis, and 34% had ever engaged in heavy alcohol use (>50 units/week for a sustained period). Significant predictors of cirrhosis were age, duration of infection, and ever heavy alcohol use. The fraction of cirrhosis attributable to ever heavy alcohol use was 36.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.4-47.4). Moreover, among patients who had ever engaged in heavy alcohol use specifically, this attributable fraction exceeded 50% (61.6%; 95% CI: 47.0-72.2). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of patients with chronic HCV develop liver cirrhosis as a consequence of heavy alcohol use. This has not been adequately acknowledged by cost utility analyses (CUAs). As such, estimates of cost-effectiveness may be exaggerated. Thus, these data are important to guide forthcoming CUAs in terms of taking better account of the factors leading to cirrhosis among patients with chronic HCV.

Excess liver-related morbidity of chronic hepatitis C patients, who achieve a sustained viral response, and are discharged from care.

UNLABELLED: Our objective was to address two shortfalls in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) literature: (1) Few data exist comparing post-treatment liver-related mortality/morbidity in HCV-sustained virologic response (SVR) patients to non-SVR patients and (2) no data exist examining liver-related morbidity among treatment response subgroups,particularly among noncirrhotic SVR patients, a group who in the main are discharged from care without further follow-up. A retrospective cohort of 1,215 previously naïve HCV interferon patients (treated 1996-2007)was derived using HCV clinical databases from nine Scottish clinics. Patients were followed up post-treatment for a mean of 5.3 years. (1) By Cox-regression, liver-related hospital episodes (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]:0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15-0.34) and liver-related mortality [corrected] (AHR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.09-0.58)were significantly lower in SVR patients, compared to non-SVR patients. (2) Rates of liver-related hospitalization were elevated among all treatment subgroups compared to the general population: Among noncirrhotic SVR patients, adjusted standardized morbidity ratio (SMBR) up to 5.9 (95% CI: 4.5-8.0); among all SVR patients,SMBR up to 10.5 (95% CI: 8.7-12.9); and among non-SVR patients, SMBR up to 53.2 (95% CI: 49.4-57.2).Considerable elevation was also noted among patients who have spontaneously resolved their HCV infection(a control group used to gauge the extent to which lifestyle factors, and not chronic HCV, can contribute toliver-related morbidity), SMBR up to 26.8 (95% CI: 25.3-28.3). CONCLUSIONS: (1) Patients achieving an SVR were more than four times less likely to be hospitalized, or die for a liver-related reason, than non-SVR patients and (2) although discharged, noncirrhotic SVR patients harbor a disproportionate burden of liver-related morbidity; up to six times that of the general population. Further, alarming levels of liver-related morbidity in spontaneous resolvers is an important finding warranting further study..

Does geographic access to primary healthcare influence the detection of hepatitis C?

Recent work in France has suggested that poor geographic access to primary healthcare may have a negative influence upon detection rates of the hepatitis C virus. Topography and poor infrastructure can exacerbate geographic remoteness, while the stigma surrounding hepatitis C and intravenous drug use may also discourage healthcare-seeking behaviour in rural communities with limited choice of general practitioner. No similar study has been conducted in the UK, where detection rates of hepatitis C are also low. Moreover, the previous French findings did not adjust for the uneven spatial distribution of HCV prevalence and associated risk factors, which raises the possibility that the reported travel-time associations were a reflection of greater hepatitis C prevalence in urban areas (where the travel-times to primary healthcare are short) and not an effect of geographic access to primary healthcare. Using geographic information systems, Poisson regression and a dataset from Tayside (Scotland), we explored whether lower rates of hepatitis C detection were associated with higher travel-times to primary healthcare. We tested whether any travel-time effects remained once the models were adjusted for deprivation, by controlling for the spatial variation of some of the known risk factors of hepatitis C infection. Separate models were calculated according to patient history of opiate substitution therapy to take account of people likely to have been infected through intravenous drug use. Rates of detected hepatitis C were highest among males aged between 25 and 39 years. A statistically significant travel-time-decay effect was observed, though with notable attenuation for all patients after adjusting for deprivation. Further modelling identified a travel-time effect only for those who had received opiate substitution therapy. The absence of a similar effect in the non-opiate substitution therapy group indicates that selection effects, not causation, are the most likely explanation for the initial travel-time-decay effects. Thus, future studies of hepatitis C detection and geographic access to primary healthcare will need to consider ways of controlling for the uneven spatial distribution of HCV prevalence and associated risk factors beyond ecological measures of socioeconomic deprivation.

Development of a decision support tool to facilitate primary care management of patients with abnormal liver function tests without clinically apparent liver disease [HTA03/38/02]. Abnormal Liver Function Investigations Evaluation (ALFIE).

BACKGROUND: Liver function tests (LFTs) are routinely performed in primary care, and are often the gateway to further invasive and/or expensive investigations. Little is known of the consequences in people with an initial abnormal liver function (ALF) test in primary care and with no obvious liver disease. Further investigations may be dangerous for the patient and expensive for Health Services. The aims of this study are to determine the natural history of abnormalities in LFTs before overt liver disease presents in the population and identify those who require minimal further investigations with the potential for reduction in NHS costs. METHODS/DESIGN: A population-based retrospective cohort study will follow up all those who have had an incident liver function test (LFT) in primary care to subsequent liver disease or mortality over a period of 15 years (approx. 2.3 million tests in 99,000 people). The study is set in Primary Care in the region of Tayside, Scotland (pop approx. 429,000) between 1989 and 2003. The target population consists of patients with no recorded clinical signs or symptoms of liver disease and registered with a GP. The health technologies being assessed are LFTs, viral and auto-antibody tests, ultrasound, CT, MRI and liver biopsy. The study will utilise the Epidemiology of Liver Disease In Tayside (ELDIT) database to determine the outcomes of liver disease. These are based on hospital admission data (Scottish Morbidity Record 1), dispensed medication records, death certificates, and examination of medical records from Tayside hospitals. A sample of patients (n = 150) with recent initial ALF tests or invitation to biopsy will complete questionnaires to obtain quality of life data and anxiety measures. Cost-effectiveness and cost utility Markov model analyses will be performed from health service and patient perspectives using standard NHS costs. The findings will also be used to develop a computerised clinical decision support tool. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will be widely disseminated to primary care, as well as G.I. hospital specialists through publications and presentations at local and national meetings and the project website. This will facilitate optimal decision-making both for the benefit of the patient and the National Health Service.