HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.

Optimizing community linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy Initiation: Lessons from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) and their adaptation in Nigeria ART Surge.

BACKGROUND: Ineffective linkage to care (LTC) is a known challenge for community HIV testing. To overcome this challenge, a robust linkage to care strategy was adopted by the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS). The NAIIS linkage to care strategy was further adapted to improve Nigeria's programmatic efforts to achieve the 1st 90 as part of the Nigeria Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Surge initiative, which also included targeted community testing. In this paper we provide an overview of the NAIIS LTC strategy and describe the impact of this strategy on both the NAIIS and the Surge initiatives. METHODS: The NAIIS collaborated with community-based organizations (CBOs) and deployed mobile health (mHealth) technology with real-time dashboards to manage and optimize community LTC for people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed during the survey. In NAIIS, CBOs' role was to facilitate linkage of identified PLHIV in community to facility of their choice. For the ART Surge, we modified the NAIIS LTC strategy by empowering both CBOs and mobile community teams as responsible for not only active LTC but also for community testing, ART initiation, and retention in care. RESULTS: Of the 2,739 PLHIV 15 years and above identified in NAIIS, 1,975 (72.1%) were either unaware of their HIV-positive status (N = 1890) or were aware of their HIV-positive status but not receiving treatment (N = 85). Of these, 1,342 (67.9%) were linked to care, of which 952 (70.9%) were initiated on ART. Among 1,890 newly diagnosed PLHIV, 1,278 (67.6%) were linked to care, 33.7% self-linked and 66.3% were linked by CBOs. Among 85 known PLHIV not on treatment, 64 (75.3%) were linked; 32.8% self-linked and 67.2% were linked by a CBO. In the ART Surge, LTC and treatment initiation rates were 98% and 100%, respectively. Three-month retention for monthly treatment initiation cohorts improved from 76% to 90% over 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Active LTC strategies by local CBOs and mobile community teams improved LTC and ART initiation in the ART Surge initiative. The use of mHealth technology resulted in timely and accurate documentation of results in NAIIS. By deploying mHealth in addition to active LTC, CBOs and mobile community teams could effectively scale up ART with real-time documentation of client-level outcomes.

Characterizing environmental asthma triggers and healthcare use patterns in Puerto Rico.

Objective: Asthma carries a high burden of disease for residents of Puerto Rico. We conducted this study to better understand asthma-related healthcare use and to examine potential asthma triggers.Methods: We characterized asthma-related healthcare use in 2013 by demographics, region, and date using outpatient, hospital, and emergency department (ED) insurance claims with a primary diagnostic ICD-9-CM code of 493.XX. We examined environmental asthma triggers, including outdoor allergens (i.e., mold and pollen), particulate pollution, and influenza-like illness. Analyses included descriptive statistics and Poisson time-series regression.Results: During 2013, there were 550,655 medical asthma claims reported to the Puerto Rico Healthcare Utilization database, representing 148 asthma claims/1,000 persons; 71% of asthma claims were outpatient visits, 19% were hospitalizations, and 10% were ED visits. Females (63%), children aged ≤9 years (77% among children), and adults aged ≥45 years (80% among adults) had the majority of asthma claims. Among health regions, Caguas had the highest asthma claim-rate at 142/1,000 persons (overall health region claim-rate = 108). Environmental exposures varied across the year and demonstrated seasonal patterns. Metro health region regression models showed positive associations between increases in mold and particulate matter <10 microns in diameter (PM10) and outpatient asthma claims.Conclusions: This study provides information about patterns of asthma-related healthcare use across Puerto Rico. Increases in mold and PM10 were associated with increases in asthma claims. Targeting educational interventions on exposure awareness and reduction techniques, especially to persons with higher asthma-related healthcare use, can support asthma control activities in public health and clinical settings.

Building Laboratory-Based Arbovirus Sentinel Surveillance Capacity During an Ongoing Dengue Outbreak, Burkina Faso, 2017.

In West Africa, identification of nonmalarial acute febrile illness (AFI) etiologic pathogens is challenging, given limited epidemiologic surveillance and laboratory testing, including for AFI caused by arboviruses. Consequently, public health action to prevent, detect, and respond to outbreaks is constrained, as experienced during dengue outbreaks in several African countries. We describe the successful implementation of laboratory-based arbovirus sentinel surveillance during a dengue outbreak in Burkina Faso during fall 2017. We describe implementation, surveillance methods, and associated costs of enhanced surveillance during an outbreak response as an effort to build capacity to better understand the burden of disease caused by arboviruses in Burkina Faso. The system improved on existing routine surveillance through an improved case report form, systematic testing of specimens, and linking patient information with laboratory results through a data management system. Lessons learned will improve arbovirus surveillance in Burkina Faso and will contribute to enhancing global health security in the region. Elements critical to the success of this intervention include responding to a specific and urgent request by the government of Burkina Faso and building on existing systems and infrastructure already supported by CDC's global health security program.

The Global Fund in China: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis nationwide programmatic scale-up and challenges to transition to full country ownership.

China has the world's second largest burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB; resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampicin), with an estimated 57,000 cases (range, 48,000-67,000) among notified pulmonary TB patients in 2015. During October 1, 2006-June 30, 2014, China expanded MDR-TB care through a partnership with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund). We analyzed data on site expansion, patient enrolment, treatment outcomes, cost per patient, and overall programme expenditure. China expanded MDR-TB diagnostic and treatment services from 2 prefectures in 2006 to 92 prefectures, covering 921 of the country's 3,000 counties by June 2014. A total of 130,910 patients were tested for MDR-TB, resulting in 13,744 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 9,183 patients started on MDR-TB treatment. Treatment success was 48.4% (2011 cohort). The partnership between China and the Global Fund resulted in enormous gains. However, changes to health system TB delivery and financing coincided with the completion of the Global Fund Programme, and could potentially impact TB and MDR-TB control. Transition to full country financial ownership is proving difficult, with a decline in enrollment and insufficient financial coverage. Given needed improvement to the current treatment success rates, these factors jeopardise investments made for MDR-TB control and care. China now has a chance to cement its status in TB control by strengthening future financing and ensuring ongoing commitment to quality service delivery.

Incidence and clinical characteristics of Guillain-Barré syndrome before the introduction of Zika virus in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) incidence. A GBS incidence estimation and clinical description was performed to assess baseline GBS epidemiology before the introduction of Zika virus in Puerto Rico. METHODS: Hospitalization administrative data from an island-wide insurance claims database and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates provided a crude GBS incidence for 2013. This estimate was adjusted using the proportion of GBS cases meeting Brighton criteria for confirmed GBS from nine reference hospitals. Characteristics of confirmed GBS cases in the same nine hospitals during 2012-2015 are described. RESULTS: A total of 136 GBS hospitalization claims were filed in 2013 (crude GBS incidence was 3.8 per 100,000 population). The adjusted GBS incidence was 1.7 per 100,000 population. Of 67 confirmed GBS cases during 2012-2015, 66% had an antecedent illness. Median time from antecedent illness to GBS onset was 7days. Most cases (67%) occurred during July-September. CONCLUSIONS: Puerto Rico's GBS incidence for 2013 was estimated using a combination of administrative data and medical records review; this method could be employed in other regions to monitor GBS incidence before and after the introduction of GBS infectious triggers.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome and Healthcare Needs during Zika Virus Transmission, Puerto Rico, 2016.

To assist with public health preparedness activities, we estimated the number of expected cases of Zika virus in Puerto Rico and associated healthcare needs. Estimated annual incidence is 3.2-5.1 times the baseline, and long-term care needs are predicted to be 3-5 times greater than in years with no Zika virus.

Global Tuberculosis Control: Toward the 2015 Targets and Beyond.

Since 1990, progress has been made toward global tuberculosis (TB) control, as measured by targets set for 2015. However, TB remains a major threat to health around the world. In 2013, there were an estimated 11 million prevalent cases, and an estimated 9.0 million incident cases occurred globally. Approximately 1.5 million deaths were caused by TB, including 360,000 among people living with HIV. Substantial challenges threaten future control efforts. These include multidrug-resistant forms and co-infection with HIV, as well as other factors, such as the increased prominence of noncommunicable diseases and adverse socioeconomic conditions. Beyond 2015, TB control must be seen as both a public health imperative unto itself and a vital component of economic development plans. To that end, control strategies should exploit technical and operational innovations to improve TB control and care and should promote universal health coverage and social protection mechanisms to expand access to essential prevention, diagnostics, and treatment services while avoiding catastrophic costs incurred by patients.