Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. RESULTS: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. CONCLUSION: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.

Establishing a COVID-19 pandemic severity assessment surveillance system in Ireland.

We developed a COVID-19 pandemic severity assessment (PSA) monitoring system in Ireland, in order to inform and improve public health preparedness, response and recovery. The system based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Pandemic Influenza Severity Assessment (PISA) project included a panel of surveillance parameters for the following indicators: transmissibility, impact and disease severity. Age-specific thresholds were established for each parameter and data visualised using heat maps. The findings from the first pandemic wave in Ireland have shown that the WHO PISA system can be adapted for COVID-19, providing a standardised tool for early warning and monitoring pandemic severity.

Acute herpes zoster and post herpetic neuralgia in primary care: a study of diagnosis, treatment and cost.

Acute herpes zoster and its complication post herpetic neuralgia represent a significant challenge to primary care physicians in their care of an ageing population of patients. This was a cross-sectional observational study by means of a quantitative survey of 1,000 general practitioners registered in Ireland exploring the frequency of diagnosis, methods of treatment and cost of AHZ and PHN in primary care. We recorded an 18% response rate (n = 184) with an 83% completion rate (n = 152/184). 80% of cases of AHZ occurred in patients aged 50 years or more with 81% of study participants encountering cases at a rate of 1-3 patients per month. Famciclovir (37%) and valaciclovir (36%) were the most commonly prescribed antiviral agents. Mild opioids (32%) were the most common analgesic agents used for first line AHZ pain, and pregabalin (37%) the most commonly prescribed analgesic agent for second line AHZ pain. Pregabalin was also the most commonly prescribed analgesic for both first and second line PHN pain (29% and 24%, respectively). The mean per-case direct cost (medication and GP visits) of treating AHZ and PHN in primary care was €195 (range €153-€236) and €201 (range €140-€313), respectively. Based on national sentinel data the estimated annual direct costs of treating AHZ and PHN in primary care is €2,278,196 (range €1,793,399-€2, 763,445). The treatment of AHZ and PHN represents both a significant care and cost burden on primary care resources in Ireland in keeping with other European based studies.