[Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030].

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

[Construction of IPA decision model for diabetes prevention and control based on economy and importance].

Objective: To determine the priority of diabetes prevention and control measures in the perspective of the economy and importance, and provide theoretical support for guiding relevant departments to implement measures based on actual economic level. Methods: An online survey was conducted on the importance, feasibility and implementation of major chronic disease prevention and control measures in 488 national demonstration areas for comprehensive chronic disease prevention and control. The content of the survey was divided into individual and group levels, with 10 dimensions and 44 measures, to obtain the scores of the economy and importance. IPA model was used to divide the dimension index of diabetes prevention and control into quadrants. The standardized factor load coefficient of the second-order confirmatory factor analysis was used to determine the priority of dimension index in the same quadrant. The priority of prevention and control measures in each dimension was determined by the discriminant parameter of project response theory. Results: The mean scores of economy and importance were 66.50 and 89.94, respectively, and the matrix was divided into four quadrants. The first quadrant was the "highest priority" with high importance and economy, including medical insurance and family doctors, health education, high-risk detection and intervention, patient management and community action. The second quadrant was characterized as high importance but low economy, which was the priority for improvement, including only one dimension of complication screening. The third quadrant was the lowest priority due to low importance and economy, including personal health service evaluation and follow-up, environmental support, diabetes co-infection prevention and glycemic policy. The last quadrant had low importance but high economy, which was the second improvement level. The priority measures in different quadrants were: (1) the highest priority: blood lipid control, occupational site, prevention and control work plan, blood glucose testing, family doctor contract service; (2) the priority improvement: annual neuropathy screening; (3)the lowest priority: universal access to risk scoring, healthy eating, healthy dining innovations and tuberculosis screening. Conclusion: IPA model can be used to construct a decision-making model for diabetes prevention and control and determine the priority of corresponding measures.

[Predictions of achievement of Sustainable Development Goal to reduce age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases by 2030 in China].

Objective: To predicate whether China can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3.4.1 to reduce the age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in residents aged 30-70 years by 2030 based on the trend of the mortality from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected the mortality data on cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by age, gender and year in China from the Global Disease Burden Study 2019 (GBD2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) Bayesian model was applied for modeling the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in China during 2020-2030 according to the trend of the mortality during 1990-2019, and comparing the predicted value in 2030 with the observed value in 2015 to evaluate the possibility of achieving SDGs 3.4.1. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of the four major NCDs in China showed a downward trend during 1990-2019. It is predicted that the number of death of the four NCDs in Chinese residents aged 30-70 years would increase from 2.96 million in 2020 to 3.19 million in 2030, while the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease from 308.49/100 000 in 2020 to 277.80/100 000 in 2030. The age-standardized mortality rate in 2030 would only decrease by 15.94% (18.73% for males and 14.31% for females) compared with 330.46/100 000 in 2015, with a 25.09% decrease for cardiovascular diseases, 4.76% for cancers, 37.21% for chronic respiratory diseases, and unchanged for diabetes. Conclusion: Although the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs declined from 1990 to 2019 in China, it is difficult to achieve the SDGs of a 1/3 mortality rate reduction by 2030 according to the current declining trend, suggesting more active and effective efforts for NCD prevention and control are needed.

[Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030].

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

[Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030].

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

[Burden of disease attributable to alcohol use and its counter measure in China].

Harmful drinking causes serious consequences to social security as well as physical and mental health of the general public. The Global Burden of Disease Study (2017) showed that the number of alcohol-related deaths in China in 2017 was 1.82 times higher than that in 1990, and the population attributable fraction increased by 44.13%. The burden of disease caused by drinking alcohol had been increasing. By comparing with the comprehensive intervention strategy of restricting harmful drinking put forward by the World Health Organization, we suggest that the current interventions that need to be improved in China should include several aspects below: (1) strengthening the control of alcohol production, marketing and circulation, (2) restricting the availability of alcohol products for minors through enterprise self-discipline, laws and regulations, parents and school health education, (3) bridging gaps in appropriate techniques and services for alcohol restriction/abstinence in the health care system, (4) providing services such as rapid screening of alcohol dependence and short abstinence interventions, (5) strengthening restrictions on alcohol advertising especially in new media (e.g., online and social media) marketing practices for alcohol products, (6) conducting scientific research and evaluation on alcohol tax-related issues, and (7) regularly reviewing alcohol prices related to inflation and income levels.

[Burden of disease attributed to high level serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China in 2017].

Objective: To quantitatively analyze the death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributed to high level serum LDL-C in Chinese population in 2017. Methods: Data were obtained from the '2017 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2017)'. Population attributable fraction (PAF), number and rate of deaths and DALY attributable to high LDL-C were used to describe the burden of disease by gender, age groups, diseases and provinces in China. Both rates on mortality and DALY were standardized by GBD world population. Results: In 2017, 862 759 deaths were caused by high level serum LDL-C in China, that accounting for 8.25% of the total deaths. Of the attributable deaths, 705 355 (81.76%) persons died from ischemic heart disease (IHD), while the remaining 18.24% from ischemic stroke (IS). High LDL-C accounted for 40.30% of the total deaths from ischemic heart disease and 18.49% from ischemic stroke. The highest PAF of death (13.70%) appeared in Jilin province and the lowest in Zhejiang province (4.65%). PAF of death was seen higher in females than in males, while both age-standardized rates of mortality and DALY appeared higher in males than in females. High LDL-C attributed mortality rate appeared as 61.08/100 000 after standardization in Chinese population. High LDL-C attributed DALYs were 18.16 million person years, among which 76.76% were caused by IHD (13.94 million person years), with DALY rate as 1285.83/100 000. Among provinces, Heilongjiang showed the highest standardized DALY rate, and Zhejiang the lowest. The PAF, number of deaths, rates on mortality and DALY caused by high LDL-C were high among residents above 70 years old, with the DALY number as 8.56 million person years, highest seen in the age group from 50 to 69 years old. Conclusion: The burden of disease attributed to high level LDL-C was quite high and with gender, age group and interprovincial differences, in China in 2017.

[Disease burden of diabetes attributable to high body mass index in China,1990-2016].

Objective: To analyze the burden of disease (BOD) on diabetes attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2016. Methods: Data based on population of the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study for China were used to analyze the attributable fractions (PAF) of BOD for diabetes attributable to high BMI. Measurements for attributable BOD of diabetes included disability adjusted life years (DALY), years of lost life (YLL), years living with disability (YLD), death number and mortality rate. The average world population from 2010 to 2035 was used as a reference. Results: In 2016, death number of diabetes attributable to high BMI was 40 310, which was significantly higher than that in 1990 (15 008). Age-standardized death rate of diabetes attributable to high BMI increased from 2.01/100 000 in 1990 to 2.60/100 000 in 2016, which showed a more significant increasing trend in both males and people aged 15-49 years. DALYs of diabetes attributable to high BMI increased from 1.09 million person years to 3.30 million person years. YLL and YLD also showed increasing trends. The highest increasing rate of YLD was in people aged 15-49 years. High BMI was responsible for 26.01% of the diabetes deaths in 2016 in China, an increase of 39.39% compared with that in 1990 (18.66%). Most provinces in China experienced a sharp increase of DALY of diabetes attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2016. Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Zhejiang, Macao SAR, Sichuan and Qinghai had the most significant increase tendency in terms of DALY rate during this period. Conclusions: There was a rapid increase of the deaths and mortality rate of diabetes attributable to high BMI, causing a heavy disease burden, in China from 1990 to 2016. The BOD varied in both different age and gender groups. More attention should be paid to males and people aged 15-49 years in the prevention and control programs of diabetes.

Burden of diabetes, hyperglycaemia in China from to 2016: Findings from the 1990 to 2016, global burden of disease study.

AIMS: The prevalence of diabetes in China is among the highest in the world. For this reason, findings from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used to calculate the burden of hyperglycaemia and diabetes in China. METHODS: Following the general analytical strategy used in GBD 2016, diabetes prevalence and mortality were analyzed by age and gender. Trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to diabetes were assessed in 33 province-level administrative units from 1990 to 2016, and similar data were provided for chronic kidney disease (CKD) related to diabetes and, as an overall summarizing measure, for hyperglycaemia expressed as high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG). RESULTS: From 1990 to 2016, all-age prevalence of diabetes rose from 3.7% to 6.6%, and all-age diabetes and diabetes-related CKD mortality rates increased by 63.5% and 33.3%, respectively, with both rates increasing more rapidly in diabetes patients aged 15-49 years than in any other age groups. In 2016, HFPG became China's sixth leading cause of DALYs, and the attributable DALYs burden was 1802.3/100,000 population. Although the number of diabetes DALYs increased by 95% from 1990 to 2016, age-standardized diabetes DALYs rates increased by only 2.3%. Also, from 1990 to 2016, rates of age-standardized DALYs due to diabetes decreased in 14 provinces, but increased in 19 provinces. High BMI Scores and diets low in whole grains, nuts and seeds were the most important risk factors for diabetes in 2016. CONCLUSION: Diabetes and hyperglycaemia constitute a huge health burden in China. The substantial increase in diabetes-related burden represents an ongoing challenge, given the rapidly ageing Chinese population. Thus, a targeted control and preventative strategy needs to be developed at risk factor level to reduce this burden.

[Disease burden for gynecological disease in China, 2016].

Objective: To assess the disease burden for gynecological disease in China in 2016. Methods: Data were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2016 (GBD 2016) . The burden of gynecological disease among age groups and provinces groups was assessed by prevalence rate, mortality rate, years lived with disability (YLD) , years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) . An average world population age-structure for the period 2010-2035 was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates. Results: In 2016, the prevalence rate of gynecological disease in women aged 15 years and above in China was 24.94%, of which was 36.71% to women of childbearing age. The number of DALY from gynecological disease was 2 727 637.82 life years in 2016, with the DALY rate was 411.12/100 000 and standardized DALY rate was 341.80/100 000. The first three gynecological diseases with highest DALY and DALY rate among Chinese women aged ≥15 years were premenstrual syndrome (815 004.64 life years, 122.84/100 000) , uterine fibroids (281 976.67 life years, 42.5/100 000) and endometriosis (154 792.89 life years, 23.33/100 000) . The DALY caused by gynecological disease in Guangdong (220 871.19 life years) , Shandong (190 968.72 life years) , Henan (171 273.92 life years) , Jiangsu (168 404.27 life years) and Sichuan (144 358.5 life years) were higher than other provinces. The standardized DALY rate attributable to gynecological disease were highest in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (404.00/100 000) , Shanghai (394.90/100 000) , Heilongjiang (382.00/100 000) , Beijing (365.70/100 000) and Jiangsu (357.50/100 000). Conclusions: Gynecological disease is a great threat to women's reproductive health. Effective measures should be taken to address the issue, especially to women of childbearing age.

[The disease burden for low back pain in China, 1990 and 2013].

Objective: To assess the disease burden for low back pain in China in 2013 and analyzed the change of it between 1990 and 2013. Methods: Data was from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013). The burden of low back pain (LBP) among age groups, gender groups, provinces (excluding Taiwan China) groups was assessed by years lived with disability (YLD), including YLD, YLD rate, proportion of YLD due to LBP. The change of the YLD for LBP was analyzed between 1990 and 2013 by age-standardized YLD rate using the world standard population of 2000-2025 WHO. Results: In 2013, The YLD for LBP was 16 347 thousand (the leading cause of YLD in China), and the proportion of YLD in age group 30-59 years old was 54.6% (8 929/16 347) . The age-standardized rate in China was 1 072.6/100 000, and the rates in Guangdong (1 742.2/100 000) , Shanghai (1 227.8/100 000) and Beijing (1 136.6/100 000) were higher than in other provinces. The proportion of YLD due to LBP was 11.8%. LBP was the leading cause of YLD in China. Compared with 1990, the growth rates of age-standardized rate, proportion of YLD and YLD, were 5.6%, 25.5% and 72.1%, desperately. Conclusion: Low back pain was the leading cause of YLD in China in 2013. Compared with 1990, the disease burden for low back pain increased rapidly.