Assessment of the accuracy of malaria microscopy in private health facilities in Entebbe Municipality, Uganda: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Although microscopy remains the gold standard for malaria diagnosis, little is known about its accuracy in the private health facilities in Uganda. This study evaluated the accuracy of malaria microscopy, and factors associated with inaccurate smear results at private health facilities in Entebbe Municipality, Uganda. METHODS: Between April and May 2018, all patients referred for a malaria smear in 16 private health facilities in Entebbe municipality were screened, and 321 patients were enrolled. A questionnaire was administered to collect demographic and clinical information, facility-based smear results were recorded from the participant's consultation notes, and a research slide was obtained for expert microscopy during exit interview. A health facility assessment was conducted, and information on experience in performing malaria microscopy was collected from all facility personnel reading smears and the data was linked to the participant's clinic visit. RESULTS: The test positivity rate of malaria parasitaemia was 15.0% by expert microscopy. The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of the facility-based microscopy were high (95.8%, 90.1 and 99.2%, respectively). However; the positive predictive value (PPV) was low with 27/73 (63%) patients diagnosed with malaria not having the disease. Majority of the inaccurate results were from 2 of the 23 laboratory personnel reading the smears. The factors associated with inaccurate smear readings included being read by a technician; (1) who had less than 5 years' experience in reading malaria smears (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 9.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.06-89.5), p-value = 0.04), and (2) who was examining less than 5 smears a day (aOR = 38.8, 95% CI 9.65-156, p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of malaria microscopy in this setting was high, although one third of the patients diagnosed with malaria did not have the disease. Majority of the errors in smear readings were made by two laboratory personnel, with the main factor associated with inaccurate smear results being low experience in malaria microscopy. In-service training may be sufficient to eliminate inaccurate smear results in this setting, and these private facilities would be ideal model facilities to improve the quality of malaria microscopy in Uganda especially in the public sector where accuracy is still poor.

Cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for malaria during pregnancy: an analysis using efficacy results from Uganda and Kenya, and pooled data.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of malaria infection during pregnancy in HIV-negative women currently relies on the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets together with intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP). Increasing sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Africa threatens current prevention of malaria during pregnancy. Thus, a replacement for IPTp-SP is urgently needed, especially for locations with high sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is a promising candidate. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DP) versus IPTp-SP to prevent clinical malaria infection (and its sequelae) during pregnancy. METHODS: We did a cost-effectiveness analysis using meta-analysis and individual trial results from three clinical trials done in Kenya and Uganda. We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) arising from stillbirths, neonatal death, low birthweight, mild and moderate maternal anaemia, and clinical malaria infection, associated with malaria during pregnancy. Cost estimates were obtained from data collected in observational studies, health-facility costings, and from international drug procurement databases. The cost-effectiveness analyses were done from a health-care provider perspective using a decision tree model with a lifetime horizon. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses using appropriate parameter ranges and distributions were also done. Results are presented as the incremental cost per DALY averted and the likelihood that an intervention is cost-effective for different cost-effectiveness thresholds. FINDINGS: Compared with three doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, three doses of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, delivered to a hypothetical cohort of 1000 pregnant women, averted 892 DALYs (95% credibility interval 274 to 1517) at an incremental cost of US$7051 (2653 to 13 038) generating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $8 (2 to 29) per DALY averted. Compared with monthly doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, monthly doses of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine averted 534 DALYS (-141 to 1233) at a cost of $13 427 (4994 to 22 895), resulting in an ICER of $25 (-151 to 224) per DALY averted. Both results were highly robust to most or all variations in the deterministic sensitivity analysis. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that among HIV-negative pregnant women with high uptake of long-lasting insecticidal nets, IPTp-DP is cost-effective in areas with high malaria transmission and high sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. These data provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence on the cost-effectiveness of IPTp-DP. Nevertheless, before a policy change is advocated, we recommend further research into the effectiveness and costs of different regimens of IPTp-DP in settings with different underlying sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. FUNDING: Malaria in Pregnancy Consortium, which is funded through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Liverpool School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Practical Implications of a Relationship between Health Management Information System and Community Cohort-Based Malaria Incidence Rates.

Global malaria burden is reducing with effective control interventions, and surveillance is vital to maintain progress. Health management information system (HMIS) data provide a powerful surveillance tool; however, its estimates of burden need to be better understood for effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the relationship between HMIS and cohort incidence rates and identify sources of bias in HMIS-based incidence. Malaria incidence was estimated using HMIS data from 15 health facilities in three subcounties in Uganda. This was compared with a gold standard of representative cohort studies conducted in children aged 0.5 to < 11 years, followed concurrently in these sites. Between October 2011 and September 2014, 153,079 children were captured through HMISs and 995 followed up through enhanced community cohorts in Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera subcounties. Although HMISs substantially underestimated malaria incidence in all sites compared with data from the cohort studies, there was a strong linear relationship between these rates in the lower transmission settings (Walukuba and Kihihi), but not the lowest HMIS performance highest transmission site (Nagongera), with calendar year as a significant modifier. Although health facility accessibility, availability, and recording completeness were associated with HMIS incidence, they were not significantly associated with bias in estimates from any site. Health management information systems still require improvements; however, their strong predictive power of unbiased malaria burden when improved highlights the important role they could play as a cost-effective tool for monitoring trends and estimating impact of control interventions. This has important implications for malaria control in low-resource, high-burden countries.

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5-15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.

Assessment of community-level effects of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda (START-IPT trial): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a well established malaria control intervention. Evidence that delivering IPT to schoolchildren could provide community-level benefits is limited. We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial to assess the effect of IPT of primary schoolchildren with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on indicators of malaria transmission in the community, in Jinja, Uganda. METHODS: We included 84 clusters, each comprising one primary school and the 100 closest available households. The clusters were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive IPT with DP or standard care (control) by restricted randomisation to ensure balance by geography and school type. Children in intervention schools received IPT monthly for up to six rounds (June to December, 2014). We did cross-sectional community surveys in randomly selected households at baseline and in January to April, 2015, during which we measured participants' temperatures and obtained finger-prick blood smears for measurement of parasite prevalence by microscopy. We also did entomological surveys 1 night per month in households from 20 randomly selected IPT and 20 control clusters. The primary trial outcome was parasite prevalence in the final community survey. The primary entomological survey outcome was the annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) from July, 2014, to April, 2015. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02009215. FINDINGS: Among 23 280 students registered in the 42 intervention schools, 10 079 (43%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled and received at least one dose of DP. 9286 (92%) of 10 079 received at least one full course of DP (three doses). Community-level parasite prevalence was lower in the intervention clusters than in the control clusters (19% vs 23%, adjusted risk ratio 0·85, 95% CI 0·73-1·00, p=0·05). The aEIR was lower in the intervention group than in the control group, but not significantly so (10·1 vs 15·2 infective bites per person, adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·36-1·80, p=0·59). INTERPRETATION: IPT of schoolchildren with DP might have a positive effect on community-level malaria indicators and be operationally feasible. Studies with greater IPT coverage are needed. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Sex Disparity in Cord Blood FoxP3+ CD4 T Regulatory Cells in Infants Exposed to Malaria In Utero.

Sex differences in the immune response and in infectious disease susceptibility have been well described, although the mechanisms underlying these differences remain incompletely understood. We evaluated the frequency of cord blood CD4 T cell subsets in a highly malaria-exposed birth cohort of mother-infant pairs in Uganda by sex. We found that frequencies of cord blood regulatory T cell ([Treg] CD4+CD25+FoxP3+CD127lo/-) differed by infant sex, with significantly lower frequencies of Tregs in female than in male neonates (P = .006). When stratified by in utero malaria exposure status, this difference was observed in the exposed, but not in the unexposed infants.

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities in Relation to Malaria Risk: A Comparison of Metrics in Rural Uganda.

Socioeconomic position (SEP) is an important risk factor for malaria, but there is no consensus on how to measure SEP in malaria studies. We evaluated the relative strength of four indicators of SEP in predicting malaria risk in Nagongera, Uganda. A total of 318 children resident in 100 households were followed for 36 months to measure parasite prevalence routinely every 3 months and malaria incidence by passive case detection. Household SEP was determined using: 1) two wealth indices, 2) income, 3) occupation, and 4) education. Wealth Index I (reference) included only asset ownership variables. Wealth Index II additionally included food security and house construction variables, which may directly affect malaria. In multivariate analysis, only Wealth Index II and income were associated with the human biting rate, only Wealth Indices I and II were associated with parasite prevalence, and only caregiver's education was associated with malaria incidence. This is the first evaluation of metrics beyond wealth and consumption indices for measuring the association between SEP and malaria. The wealth index still predicted malaria risk after excluding variables directly associated with malaria, but the strength of association was lower. In this setting, wealth indices, income, and education were stronger predictors of socioeconomic differences in malaria risk than occupation.

The evidence for improving housing to reduce malaria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The global malaria burden has fallen since 2000, sometimes before large-scale vector control programmes were initiated. While long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are highly effective interventions, this study tests the hypothesis that improved housing can reduce malaria by decreasing house entry by malaria mosquitoes. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess whether modern housing is associated with a lower risk of malaria than traditional housing, across all age groups and malaria-endemic settings. Six electronic databases were searched to identify intervention and observational studies published from 1 January, 1900 to 13 December, 2013, measuring the association between house design and malaria. The primary outcome measures were parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical malaria. Crude and adjusted effects were combined in fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses, with sub-group analyses for: overall house type (traditional versus modern housing); screening; main wall, roof and floor materials; eave type; ceilings and elevation. RESULTS: Of 15,526 studies screened, 90 were included in a qualitative synthesis and 53 reported epidemiological outcomes, included in a meta-analysis. Of these, 39 (74%) showed trends towards a lower risk of epidemiological outcomes associated with improved house features. Of studies assessing the relationship between modern housing and malaria infection (n=11) and clinical malaria (n=5), all were observational, with very low to low quality evidence. Residents of modern houses had 47% lower odds of malaria infection compared to traditional houses (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0°53, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0°42-0°67, p< 0°001, five studies) and a 45-65% lower odds of clinical malaria (case-control studies: adjusted OR 0°35, 95 % CI 0°20-0°62, p<0°001, one study; cohort studies: adjusted rate ratio 0°55, 95% CI 0°36-0°84, p=0°005, three studies). Evidence of a high risk of bias was found within studies. CONCLUSIONS: Despite low quality evidence, the direction and consistency of effects indicate that housing is an important risk factor for malaria. Future research should evaluate the protective effect of specific house features and incremental housing improvements associated with socio-economic development.

Malaria in Uganda: challenges to control on the long road to elimination: I. Epidemiology and current control efforts.

Malaria remains one of the leading health problems of the developing world, and Uganda bears a particularly large burden from the disease. Our understanding is limited by a lack of reliable data, but it is clear that the prevalence of malaria infection, incidence of disease, and mortality from severe malaria all remain very high. Uganda has made progress in implementing key malaria control measures, in particular distribution of insecticide-impregnated bednets, indoor residual spraying of insecticides, utilization of artemisinin-based combination therapy to treat uncomplicated malaria, and provision of intermittent preventive therapy for pregnant women. However, despite enthusiasm regarding the potential for the elimination of malaria in other areas, there is no convincing evidence that the burden of malaria has decreased in Uganda in recent years. Major challenges to malaria control in Uganda include very high malaria transmission intensity, inadequate health care resources, a weak health system, inadequate understanding of malaria epidemiology and the impact of control interventions, increasing resistance of parasites to drugs and of mosquitoes to insecticides, inappropriate case management, inadequate utilization of drugs to prevent malaria, and inadequate epidemic preparedness and response. Despite these challenges, prospects for the control of malaria have improved, and with attention to underlying challenges, progress toward the control of malaria in Uganda can be expected.

Malaria in Uganda: challenges to control on the long road to elimination. II. The path forward.

In the recent past there have been several reports of successes in malaria control, leading some public health experts to conclude that Africa is witnessing an epidemiological transition, from an era of failed malaria control to progression from successful control to elimination. Successes in control have been attributed to increased international donor support leading to increased intervention coverage. However, these changes are not uniform across Africa. In Uganda, where baseline transmission is very high and intervention coverage not yet to scale, the malaria burden is not declining and has even likely increased in the last decade. In this article we present perspectives for the future for Uganda and other malaria endemic countries with high baseline transmission intensity and significant health system challenges. For these high burden areas, malaria elimination is currently not feasible, and early elimination programs are inappropriate, as they would further fragment already fragmented and inefficient malaria control systems. Rather, health impacts will be maximized by aiming to achieve universal coverage of proven interventions in the context of a strengthened health system.

Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.

BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-5%), and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%). Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58%) than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%). Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%). However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models employing expert opinion. Results of such models should be interpreted cautiously. The diversity of expert opinion should be recognised when policy options are debated.

Novel application of Locked Nucleic Acid chemistry for a Taqman assay for measuring diverse human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtypes.

There remains a need for sensitive and cost-effective assays to monitor therapy in human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) infection. However, the genetic diversity of HIV poses difficulties for traditional real-time PCR assays that require long oligonucleotides probes. LNA™ probes may be useful in overcoming these limits to traditional probe design. A new application of LNA™ chemistry in a Taqman assay applicable to a wide range of HIV-1 subtypes is described. This assay, based on a 13-mer LNA™ probe that matches the majority of HIV-1 sequences in the Los Alamos database, exhibited a wide dynamic range (10(1)-10(7) copies of HIV DNA), high sensitivity (limit of detection of 1 copy of HIV DNA in 10(5) cells), and broad applicability to a range of HIV-1 subtypes (including A, B, C, D, F, H, B/C, and A/E CRFs). Using the LNA™ probe assay, HIV-1 DNA was detected in all dried blood spots (DBS) from treatment naïve HIV-1 positive Ugandan children, and HIV DNA levels significantly correlated with viral RNA levels in plasma (r=0.765, p<0.0001). This approach to Taqman probe design should be explored further for use in diagnosis and monitoring of HIV in resource-limited settings, especially where several subtypes co-circulate.

Home management of malaria with artemether-lumefantrine compared with standard care in urban Ugandan children: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Home management of malaria-the presumptive treatment of febrile children with antimalarial drugs-is advocated to ensure prompt effective treatment of the disease. We assessed the effect of home delivery of artemether-lumefantrine on the incidence of antimalarial treatment and on clinical outcomes in children from an urban setting with fairly low malaria transmission. METHODS: In Kampala, Uganda, 437 children aged between 1 and 6 years from 325 households were randomly assigned by a computer-generated sequence to receive home delivery of prepackaged artemether-lumefantrine for presumptive treatment of febrile illnesses (n=225) or current standard of care (n=212). Randomisation was done by household after a pilot period of 1 month. After randomisation, study participants were followed up for an additional 12 months and information on their health and treatment of illnesses was obtained by use of monthly questionnaires and household diaries, which were completed by the participants' carers. The primary outcome was treatment incidence density per person-year. Analysis of the primary outcome was done on the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all participants apart from those excluded before data collection. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00115921. FINDINGS: Eight participants in the home management group and four in the standard care group were excluded before data collection; therefore, the primary analysis was done in 217 and 208 participants, respectively. The home management group received nearly twice the number of antimalarial treatments as the standard care group (4.66 per person-year vs 2.53 per person-year; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.72, 95% CI 1.43-2.06, p<0.0001), and nearly five times the number given to children with microscopically confirmed malaria in a comparable cohort of children (4.66 per person-year vs 1.03 per person-year, IRR 5.19, 95% CI 4.24-6.35, p<0.0001). Clinical data were available for 189 children in the home management group and 176 in the control group at study end; the main reasons for exclusion were movement out of the study area or loss to follow-up. The proportion of participants with parasitaemia at final assessment in the intervention group was lower than in the control group (four [2%] vs 17 [10%], p=0.006), but there were no other differences in standard malariometric indices, including anaemia. Serious adverse events were captured retrospectively. One child died in each group (home management-severe pneumonia and possible septicaemia; standard care-presumed respiratory failure). INTERPRETATION: Although home management of malaria led to prompt treatment of fever, there was little effect on clinical outcomes. The substantial over-treatment suggests that artemether-lumefantrine provided in the home might not be appropriate for large urban areas or settings with fairly low malaria transmission. FUNDING: Gates Malaria Partnership.

Different methodological approaches to the assessment of in vivo efficacy of three artemisinin-based combination antimalarial treatments for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in African children.

BACKGROUND: Use of different methods for assessing the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination antimalarial treatments (ACTs) will result in different estimates being reported, with implications for changes in treatment policy. METHODS: Data from different in vivo studies of ACT treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria were combined in a single database. Efficacy at day 28 corrected by PCR genotyping was estimated using four methods. In the first two methods, failure rates were calculated as proportions with either (1a) reinfections excluded from the analysis (standard WHO per-protocol analysis) or (1b) reinfections considered as treatment successes. In the second two methods, failure rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit formula using either (2a) WHO (2001) definitions of failure, or (2b) failure defined using parasitological criteria only. RESULTS: Data analysed represented 2926 patients from 17 studies in nine African countries. Three ACTs were studied: artesunate-amodiaquine (AS+AQ, N = 1702), artesunate-sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP, N = 706) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL, N = 518).Using method (1a), the day 28 failure rates ranged from 0% to 39.3% for AS+AQ treatment, from 1.0% to 33.3% for AS+SP treatment and from 0% to 3.3% for AL treatment. The median [range] difference in point estimates between method 1a (reference) and the others were: (i) method 1b = 1.3% [0 to 24.8], (ii) method 2a = 1.1% [0 to 21.5], and (iii) method 2b = 0% [-38 to 19.3].The standard per-protocol method (1a) tended to overestimate the risk of failure when compared to alternative methods using the same endpoint definitions (methods 1b and 2a). It either overestimated or underestimated the risk when endpoints based on parasitological rather than clinical criteria were applied. The standard method was also associated with a 34% reduction in the number of patients evaluated compared to the number of patients enrolled. Only 2% of the sample size was lost when failures were classified on the first day of parasite recurrence and survival analytical methods were used. CONCLUSION: The primary purpose of an in vivo study should be to provide a precise estimate of the risk of antimalarial treatment failure due to drug resistance. Use of survival analysis is the most appropriate way to estimate failure rates with parasitological recurrence classified as treatment failure on the day it occurs.