Model-based assessment of Chikungunya and O'nyong-nyong virus circulation in Mali in a serological cross-reactivity context.

Serological surveys are essential to quantify immunity in a population but serological cross-reactivity often impairs estimates of the seroprevalence. Here, we show that modeling helps addressing this key challenge by considering the important cross-reactivity between Chikungunya (CHIKV) and O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) as a case study. We develop a statistical model to assess the epidemiology of these viruses in Mali. We additionally calibrate the model with paired virus neutralization titers in the French West Indies, a region with known CHIKV circulation but no ONNV. In Mali, the model estimate of ONNV and CHIKV prevalence is 30% and 13%, respectively, versus 27% and 2% in non-adjusted estimates. While a CHIKV infection induces an ONNV response in 80% of cases, an ONNV infection leads to a cross-reactive CHIKV response in only 22% of cases. Our study shows the importance of conducting serological assays on multiple cross-reactive pathogens to estimate levels of virus circulation.

New assessment of Anopheles vector species identification using MALDI-TOF MS.

BACKGROUND: Anopheles species identification is essential for an effective malaria vector control programme. Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) has been developed to identify adult Anopheles species, using the legs or the cephalothorax. The protein repertoire from arthropods can vary according to compartment, but there is no general consensus regarding the anatomic part to be used. METHODS: To determine the body part of the Anopheles mosquitoes best suited for the identification of field specimens, a mass spectral library was generated with head, thorax with wings and legs of Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus obtained from reference centres. The MSL was evaluated using two independent panels of 52 and 40 An. gambiae field-collected in Mali and Guinea, respectively. Geographic variability was also tested using the panel from Mali and several databases containing added specimens from Mali and Senegal. RESULTS: Using the head and a database without specimens from the same field collection, the proportion of interpretable and correct identifications was significantly higher than using the other body parts at a threshold value of 1.7 (p < 0.0001). The thorax of engorged specimens was negatively impacted by the blood meal after frozen storage. The addition of specimens from Mali into the database significantly improved the results of Mali panel (p < 0.0001), which became comparable between head and legs. With higher identification scores, the using of the head will allow to decrease the number of technical replicates of protein extract per specimen, which represents a significant improvement for routine use of MALDI-TOF MS. CONCLUSIONS: The using of the head of Anopheles may improve the performance of MALDI-TOF MS. Region-specific mass spectrum databases will have to be produced. Further research is needed to improve the standardization in order to share online spectral databases.

Delayed anemia assessment in patients treated with oral artemisinin derivatives for uncomplicated malaria: a pooled analysis of clinical trials data from Mali.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and injectable artesunate are the first-line treatments for uncomplicated and severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria, respectively. However, recent studies suggest that delayed anaemia is associated with these treatments in non-immune travellers. This paper aimed to assess the risk factors associated with delayed anaemia after falciparum malaria treatment with artemisinin-containing drugs in malaria-endemic populations. METHODS: Pooled, individual malaria patient data were extracted from 13 clinical trials performed from 2002 to 2011 in various settings of Mali. Treatment regimens were artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate plus amodiaquine, artesunate plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, artesunate plus sulphamethoxypyrazine-pyrimethamine, artesunate plus mefloquine, artesunate-pyronaridine, artesunate monotherapy, chloroquine, sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, amodiaquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the generalized linear and latent mixed model procedures to assess risk factors associated with haemoglobin concentration evolution and anaemia during the treatment follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 5,990 participants were recruited and followed from day 0 to day 28. The participants' median age was five years, ranging from three months to 70 years. There was a decrease in haemoglobin level on day 7 in all treatment arms, but the magnitude varied across treatments. There was a significant risk of haemoglobin level decrease on day 7 in the artemisinin-based therapy compared to the non-artemisinin treatments. The risk of haemoglobin concentration drop was associated with age group < five years old (0.61 g/dL 95% CI (0.71 to 0.51), p < 0.001), baseline high parasite density (0.43 g/dL 95% CI (0.51 to 0.35), p < 0.001) and treatment failure (0.40 g/dL 95% CI (0.59 to 0.20), p = 0.018), while high haemoglobin level at baseline was a protective factor (0.53 to 0.59) p < 0.001). No association was found between artemisinin-based therapy and severe delayed anaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Oral artemisinin derivative treatments for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria are associated with a transient and clinically moderate haemoglobin decrease by day 7 but not associated with a delayed severe anaemia.

Malaria and protective behaviours: is there a malaria trap?

BACKGROUND: In spite of massive efforts to generalize efficient prevention, such as insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITN) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), malaria remains prevalent in many countries and ITN/LLINs are still only used to a limited extent. METHODS: This study proposes a new model for malaria economic analysis by combining economic epidemiology tools with the literature on poverty traps. A theoretical model of rational protective behaviour in response to malaria is designed, which includes endogenous externalities and disease characteristics. Survey data available for Uganda provide empirical support to the theory of prevalence-elastic protection behaviours, once endogeneity issues related to epidemiology and poverty are solved. RESULTS: Two important conclusions emerge from the model. First, agents increase their protective behaviour when malaria is more prevalent in a society. This is consistent with the literature on "prevalence-elastic behaviour". Second, a 'malaria trap' defined as the result of malaria reinforcing poverty while poverty reduces the ability to deal with malaria can theoretically exist and the conditions of existence of the malaria trap are identified. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest the possible existence of malaria traps, which provides policy implications. Notably, providing ITN/LLINs at subsidized prices is not sufficient. To be efficient an ITN/LLINs dissemination campaigns should include incentive of the very poor for using ITN/LLINs.

A research agenda to underpin malaria eradication.

The interruption of malaria transmission worldwide is one of the greatest challenges for international health and development communities. The current expert view suggests that, by aggressively scaling up control with currently available tools and strategies, much greater gains could be achieved against malaria, including elimination from a number of countries and regions; however, even with maximal effort we will fall short of global eradication. The Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) complements the current research agenda--primarily directed towards reducing morbidity and mortality--with one that aims to identify key knowledge gaps and define the strategies and tools that will result in reducing the basic reproduction rate to less than 1, with the ultimate aim of eradication of the parasite from the human population. Sustained commitment from local communities, civil society, policy leaders, and the scientific community, together with a massive effort to build a strong base of researchers from the endemic areas will be critical factors in the success of this new agenda.

Malaria and primary education in Mali: a longitudinal study in the village of Donéguébougou.

This article assesses the role of malaria and certain social determinants on primary education, especially on educational achievement in Donéguébougou, a small village in a malaria-endemic area near Bamako, Mali. Field data was collected by the authors between November 2007 and June 2008 on 227 schoolchildren living in Donéguébougou. Various malaria indicators and econometric models were used to explain the variation in cognitive abilities, teachers' evaluation scores, school progression and absences. Malaria is the primary cause of school absences. Fixed-effects estimates showed that asymptomatic malaria and the presence of falciparum malaria parasites had a direct correlation with educational achievement and cognitive performance. The evidence suggests that the correlation is causal.

Engaging diverse communities participating in clinical trials: case examples from across Africa.

BACKGROUND: In the advent of increasing international collaborative research involving participants drawn from populations with diverse cultural backgrounds, community engagement becomes very critical for the smooth conduction of the research. The African Malaria Network Trust (AMANET) is a pan-African non-governmental organization that sponsors and technically supports malaria vaccine trials in various African countries. CASE DESCRIPTION: AMANET sponsored phase Ib or IIb clinical trials of several malaria vaccine candidates in various Africa countries. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Tanzania trials of the merozoite surface protein 3 -- in its Long Synthetic Peptide configuration (MSP3 LSP) -- were conducted. In Mali, the apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) was tested, while a hybrid of glutamate rich protein (GLURP) and MSP3 (GMZ2) was tested in Gabon. AMANET recognizes the importance of engaging with the communities from which trial participants are drawn, hence community engagement was given priority in all project activities conducted in the various countries. DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION: Existing local social systems were used to engage the communities from which clinical trial participants were drawn. This article focuses on community engagement activities employed at various AMANET-supported clinical trial sites in different countries, highlighting subtle differences in the approaches used. The paper also gives some general pros and cons of community engagement. CONCLUSIONS: Community engagement enables two-way sharing of accurate information and ideas between researchers and researched communities, which helps to create an environment conducive to smooth research activities with enhanced sense of research ownership by the communities.

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

BACKGROUND: The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. METHODS: A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. RESULTS: The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. CONCLUSION: Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation.

Prevention of malaria during pregnancy in West Africa: policy change and the power of subregional action.

BACKGROUND: Despite a broadening consensus about the effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) in preventing the adverse outcomes of malaria during pregnancy, policy change to IPTp was initially limited to East Africa. In West Africa, where the policy change process for the prevention of malaria during pregnancy started much later, IPTp has been taken up swiftly. OBJECTIVE: To describe the factors that contributed to the rapid adoption of policies to prevent malaria during pregnancy in West Africa. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Several factors appear to have accelerated the process: (1) recognition of the extent of the problem of malaria during pregnancy and its adverse consequences; (2) a clear, evidence-based program strategy strongly articulated by an important multilateral organization (World Health Organization); (3) subregionally generated evidence to support the proposed strategy; (4) a subregional forum for dissemination of data and discussion regarding the proposed policy changes; (5) widespread availability of the proposed intervention drug (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine); (6) technical support from reputable and respected institutions in drafting new policies and planning for implementation; (7) donor support for pilot experiences in integrating proposed policy change into a package of preventive services; and (8) financial support for scaling up the proposed interventions.

Oblique decision trees for spatial pattern detection: optimal algorithm and application to malaria risk.

BACKGROUND: In order to detect potential disease clusters where a putative source cannot be specified, classical procedures scan the geographical area with circular windows through a specified grid imposed to the map. However, the choice of the windows' shapes, sizes and centers is critical and different choices may not provide exactly the same results. The aim of our work was to use an Oblique Decision Tree model (ODT) which provides potential clusters without pre-specifying shapes, sizes or centers. For this purpose, we have developed an ODT-algorithm to find an oblique partition of the space defined by the geographic coordinates. METHODS: ODT is based on the classification and regression tree (CART). As CART finds out rectangular partitions of the covariate space, ODT provides oblique partitions maximizing the interclass variance of the independent variable. Since it is a NP-Hard problem in RN, classical ODT-algorithms use evolutionary procedures or heuristics. We have developed an optimal ODT-algorithm in R2, based on the directions defined by each couple of point locations. This partition provided potential clusters which can be tested with Monte-Carlo inference. We applied the ODT-model to a dataset in order to identify potential high risk clusters of malaria in a village in Western Africa during the dry season. The ODT results were compared with those of the Kulldorff' s SaTScan. RESULTS: The ODT procedure provided four classes of risk of infection. In the first high risk class 60%, 95% confidence interval (CI95%) [52.22-67.55], of the children was infected. Monte-Carlo inference showed that the spatial pattern issued from the ODT-model was significant (p < 0.0001). Satscan results yielded one significant cluster where the risk of disease was high with an infectious rate of 54.21%, CI95% [47.51-60.75]. Obviously, his center was located within the first high risk ODT class. Both procedures provided similar results identifying a high risk cluster in the western part of the village where a mosquito breeding point was located. CONCLUSION: ODT-models improve the classical scanning procedures by detecting potential disease clusters independently of any specification of the shapes, sizes or centers of the clusters.