Forecasting the Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the economic burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke over the coming decades may inform policy, health system, and community-level interventions for prevention and treatment. METHODS: We used nationally representative health, economic, and demographic data to project health care costs attributable to key cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia) and conditions (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation) through 2050. The human capital approach was used to estimate productivity losses from morbidity and premature mortality due to cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: One in 3 US adults received care for a cardiovascular risk factor or condition in 2020. Annual inflation-adjusted (2022 US dollars) health care costs of cardiovascular risk factors are projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, from $400 billion to $1344 billion. For cardiovascular conditions, annual health care costs are projected to almost quadruple, from $393 billion to $1490 billion, and productivity losses are projected to increase by 54%, from $234 billion to $361 billion. Stroke is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in costs. Large relative increases among the Asian American population (497%) and Hispanic American population (489%) reflect the projected increases in the size of these populations. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of cardiovascular risk factors and overt cardiovascular disease in the United States is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Development and deployment of cost-effective programs and policies to promote cardiovascular health are urgently needed to rein in costs and to equitably enhance population health.

Simulated impact of medicaid expansion on the economic burden of opioid use disorder in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use disorder (OUD) imposes significant costs on state and local governments. Medicaid expansion may lead to a reduction in the cost burden of OUD to the state. METHODS: We estimated the health care, criminal justice and child welfare costs, and tax revenue losses, attributable to OUD and borne by the state of North Carolina in 2022, and then estimated changes in the same domains following Medicaid expansion in North Carolina (adopted in December 2023). Analyses used existing literature on the national and state-level costs attributable to OUD to estimate individual-level health care, criminal justice, and child welfare system costs, and lost tax revenues. We combined Individual-level costs and prevalence estimates to estimate costs borne by the state before Medicaid expansion. Changes in costs after expansion were computed based on a) medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) access for new enrollees and b) shifting of responsibility for some health care costs from the state to the federal government. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for the impact of parameter uncertainty. Dollar estimates are from the 2022 price year, and costs following the first year were discounted at 3 %. RESULTS: In 2022, North Carolina incurred costs of $749 million (95 % credible interval [CI]: $305 M-$1,526 M) associated with OUD (53 % in health care, 36 % in criminal justice, 7 % in lost tax revenue, and 4 % in child welfare costs). Expanding Medicaid lowered the cost burden of OUD incurred by the state. The state was predicted to save an estimated $72 million per year (95 % CI: $6 M-$241 M) for the first two years and $30 million per year (95 % CI: -$28 M-$176 M) in subsequent years. Over five years, savings totaled $224 million (95 % CI: -$47 M-$949 M). CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion has the potential to decrease the burden of OUD in North Carolina, and policymakers should expedite its implementation.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption on health outcomes and hospitalization costs in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol consumption increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risky drinking are linked to harmful health effects. This paper aimed to project future health and cost impacts of shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: An individual-level simulation model of the long-term drinking patterns for people with life-time AUD was used to simulate 10 000 individuals and project model outcomes to the estimated 25.9 million current drinkers with life-time AUD in the United States. The model considered three scenarios: (1) no change (counterfactual for comparison); (2) increased drinking levels persist for 1 year ('increase-1') and (3) increased drinking levels persist for 5 years ('increase-5'). SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Current drinkers with life-time AUD. MEASUREMENTS: Life expectancy [life-years (LYs)], quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations and associated hospitalization costs and alcohol-related deaths, during a 5-year period. FINDINGS: Short-term increases in alcohol consumption (increase-1 scenario) resulted in a loss of 79 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI]) 26 000-201 000] LYs, a loss of 332 000 (104 000-604 000) QALYs and 295 000 (82 000-501 000) more alcohol-related hospitalizations, costing an additional $5.4 billion ($1.5-9.3 billion) over 5 years. Hospitalizations for cirrhosis of the liver accounted for approximately $3.0 billion ($0.9-4.8 billion) in hospitalization costs, more than half the increase across all alcohol-related conditions. Health and cost impacts were more pronounced for older age groups (51+), women and non-Hispanic black individuals. Increasing the duration of pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption in the increase-5 scenario resulted in larger impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations show that if the increase in alcohol consumption observed in the United States in the first year of the pandemic continues, alcohol-related mortality, morbidity and associated costs will increase substantially over the next 5 years.

Modeling the impact of a long-term horizon and multiple treatment episodes on estimates of the cost-effectiveness of alcohol treatment in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical studies of alcohol use disorder (AUD) treatment have short follow-up periods, underestimating the full benefits of alcohol treatment. Furthermore, clinical studies only consider one treatment cycle and do not account for the need for multiple episodes to treat a chronic recurrent condition. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model of the long-term drinking patterns of people with AUD in the United States simulated 10,000 individuals resembling those from a large clinical trial. The model was used to assess the impact of (1) 1-year, 5-year, and lifetime horizon on alcohol treatment cost-effectiveness estimates and (2) no, one, two, four, and unlimited additional treatment episodes on alcohol treatment cost-effectiveness estimates. Model outcomes included healthcare costs, crime costs, labor market productivity, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations, and deaths. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted for two perspectives: a healthcare perspective that included costs from hospitalization and AUD treatment, and a broader societal perspective that also included crime costs and productivity. RESULTS: The incremental cost per additional QALY gained for alcohol treatment compared with no treatment decreased from $55,590 after 1 year to $78 when healthcare costs and QALYs were tracked over the lifetime, that is, treatment became more cost effective. Treatment was cost saving for any time frame when the impacts on crime and labor productivity were also accounted for in a societal perspective. Access to multiple treatment episodes dominated (i.e., it was more effective and less costly) than no-treatment and one-episode scenarios. From a healthcare perspective, incremental costs per additional QALY for increasing from a maximum of two to four treatment episodes was $499 and from four to unlimited episodes was $5049. The unlimited treatment scenario dominated all others from a societal perspective. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A long-term perspective and multiple episodes of alcohol treatment improve cost-effectiveness estimates. When societal impacts are included, alcohol treatment is cost saving. Results support the value of alcohol treatment.

The Relationship Between Reductions in WHO Risk Drinking Levels During Treatment and Subsequent Healthcare Costs for the ACTIVE Workgroup.

BACKGROUND: Abstinence has historically been considered the target outcome for alcohol use disorder (AUD) treatment, yet recent work has found drinking reductions after AUD treatment, as measured by World Health Organization (WHO) risk drinking levels, are associated with meaningful improvements in functioning, physical health, and quality of life. OBJECTIVES: This study extends previous analyses of AUD treatment outcomes by estimating the association between changes in WHO risk drinking levels (very high, high, medium, and low, based on average daily alcohol consumption) and healthcare costs. METHODS: Secondary data analysis of the COMBINE study, a multisite randomized clinical trial of acamprosate, naltrexone and behavioral interventions for AUD. Generalized gamma regression models were used to estimate relationships between WHOrisk drinking level reductions over the course of treatment and healthcare costs in the year after treatment (N = 964) and up to 3 years following treatment (N = 651). RESULTS: SustainedWHOrisk drinking reductions of 2 or more levels throughout treatment were associated with 52.0% lower healthcare costs ( P < 0.001) in the year following treatment, and 44.0% lower costs ( P < 0.0025) over 3 years. A reduction of exactly 1 level was associated with 34.8% lower costs over 3 years, which was not significant ( P = 0.05). Cost reductions were driven by lower inpatient behavioral health and emergency department utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in WHO risk drinking levels of at least 2 levels was associated with lower healthcare costs over 1 and 3 years. Our results add to literature showing drinking reductions are associated with improvement in health.

Economic Evaluation of Interventions to Address Opioid Misuse: A Systematic Review of Methods Used in Simulation Modeling Studies.

OBJECTIVES: Several evidence-based interventions exist for people who misuse opioids, but there is limited guidance on optimal intervention selection. Economic evaluations using simulation modeling can guide the allocation of resources and help tackle the opioid crisis. This study reviews methods employed by economic evaluations using computer simulations to investigate the health and economic effects of interventions meant to address opioid misuse. METHODS: We conducted a systematic mapping review of studies that used simulation modeling to support the economic evaluation of interventions targeting prevention, treatment, or management of opioid misuse or its direct consequences (ie, overdose). We searched 6 databases and extracted information on study population, interventions, costs, outcomes, and economic analysis and modeling approaches. RESULTS: Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria. All of the studies considered only one segment of the continuum of care. Of the studies, 13 evaluated medications for opioid use disorder, and 5 evaluated naloxone distribution programs to reduce overdose deaths. Most studies estimated incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-years and used health system and/or societal perspectives. Models were decision trees (n = 4), Markov (n = 10) or semi-Markov models (n = 3), and microsimulations (n = 1). All of the studies assessed parameter uncertainty though deterministic and/or probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 4 conducted formal calibration, only 2 assessed structural uncertainty, and only 1 conducted expected value of information analyses. Only 10 studies conducted validation. CONCLUSIONS: Future economic evaluations should consider synergies between interventions and examine combinations of interventions to inform optimal policy response. They should also more consistently conduct model validation and assess the value of further research.

Estimating Long-Term Drinking Patterns for People with Lifetime Alcohol Use Disorder.

Background. There is a lack of data on alcohol consumption over time. This study characterizes the long-term drinking patterns of people with lifetime alcohol use disorders who have engaged in treatment or informal care. Methods. We developed multinomial logit models using the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) to estimate short-term transition probabilities (TPs) among the 4 World Health Organization drinking risk levels (low, medium, high, and very high risk) and abstinence by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. We applied an optimization algorithm to convert 3-year TPs from NESARC to 1-year TPs, then used simulated annealing to calibrate TPs to a propensity-scored matched set of participants derived from a separate 16-year study of alcohol consumption. We validated the resulting long-term TPs using NESARC-III, a cross-sectional study conducted on a different cohort. Results. Across 24 demographic groups, the 1-year probability of remaining in the same state averaged 0.93, 0.81, 0.49, 0.51, and 0.63 for abstinent, low, medium, high, and very high-risk states, respectively. After calibration to the 16-year study data (N = 420), resulting TPs produced state distributions that hit the calibration target. We find that the abstinent or low-risk states are very stable, and the annual probability of leaving the very high-risk state increases by about 20 percentage points beyond 8 years. Limitations. TPs for some demographic groups had small cell sizes. The data used to calibrate long-term TPs are based on a geographically narrow study. Conclusions. This study is the first to characterize long-term drinking patterns by combining short-term representative data with long-term data on drinking behaviors. Current research is using these patterns to estimate the long-term cost effectiveness of alcohol treatment.

Substance use disorder treatment admissions and state-level prenatal substance use policies: Evidence from a national treatment database.

State policies pertaining to prenatal substance use have important implications for health outcomes of pregnant women and their infants. However, little is known about the impact of the various types of state-level prenatal substance use policies (i.e., treatment and supportive services; criminal justice initiatives; and health care provider reporting requirements) on substance use disorder treatment admissions. Using data from the 2002-2014 Treatment Episode Data Set - Admissions, we exploited state-level variation in the implementation of different types of policies to assess their impact on pregnant women's admission to substance use disorder treatment. The study found that state-level prenatal substance use policies focused only on the criminal justice sector were negatively associated with the proportion of women of reproductive age who were pregnant upon admission to treatment. Additionally, the implementation of policies that engaged all three sectors was positively associated with the proportion of women of reproductive age who were pregnant upon admission to treatment. These results were consistent across age groups and for both non-Hispanic white women and women of other racial/ethnic groups. The findings imply that states with cross-sector policy engagement around prenatal substance use and policies that take a multifaceted, comprehensive approach are more likely to see an increase in admissions to substance use disorder treatment during pregnancy.

Cost and Return on Investment of a Work-Family Intervention in the Extended Care Industry: Evidence From the Work, Family, and Health Network.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost and return on investment (ROI) of an intervention targeting work-family conflict (WFC) in the extended care industry. METHODS: Costs to deliver the intervention during a group-randomized controlled trial were estimated, and data on organizational costs-presenteeism, health care costs, voluntary termination, and sick time-were collected from interviews and administrative data. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the intervention's impact on organizational costs. Combined, these results produced ROI estimates. A cluster-robust confidence interval (CI) was estimated around the ROI estimate. RESULTS: The per-participant cost of the intervention was $767. The ROI was -1.54 (95% CI: -4.31 to 2.18). The intervention was associated with a $668 reduction in health care costs (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This paper builds upon and expands prior ROI estimation methods to a new setting.

Prescription drug monitoring programs, nonmedical use of prescription drugs, and heroin use: Evidence from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health.

In the United States, nonmedical prescription opioid use is a major public health concern. Various policy initiatives have been undertaken to tackle this crisis, including state prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs). This study uses the 2004-2014 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and exploits state-level variation in the timing of PDMP implementation and PDMP characteristics to investigate whether PDMPs are associated with a reduction in prescription opioid misuse or whether they have the unintended consequence of increasing heroin use. In addition, the study examines the impact of PDMPs on the availability of opioids from various sources. The study finds no effect of PDMP status on various measures of nonmedical prescription opioid use (abuse, dependence, and initiation), but finds evidence of a reduction in the number of days of opioid misuse in the past year. The study also finds that implementation of PDMP was not associated with an increase in heroin use or initiation, but was associated with an increase in number of days of heroin use in the past year. Findings also suggest that PDMPs were associated with a significant decline in doctor shopping among individuals without increasing reliance on illegal sources (e.g., drug dealers, stealing, etc.) or social sources (friends or relatives) as a means of obtaining opioids. The President's FY2017 budget proposed the allocation of $1.1 billion in an effort to reduce prescription drug misuse, and highlighted the use of PDMPs as a policy tool. This study documents evidence that PDMPs might be having measurable impact.

Sustaining SBIRT in the wild: simulating revenues and costs for Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs.

AIMS: To examine the conditions under which Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) programs can be sustained by health insurance payments. DESIGN: A mathematical model was used to estimate the number of patients needed for revenues to exceed costs. SETTING: Three medical settings in the United States were examined: in-patient, out-patient and emergency department. Components of SBIRT were delivered by combinations of health-care practitioners (generalists) and behavioral health specialists. PARTICIPANTS: Practitioners in seven SBIRT programs who received grants from the US Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). MEASUREMENTS: Program costs and revenues were measured using data from grantees. Patient flows were measured from administrative data and adjusted with prevalence and screening estimates from the literature. FINDINGS: SBIRT can be sustained through health insurance reimbursement in out-patient and emergency department settings in most staffing mixes. To sustain SBIRT in in-patient programs, a patient flow larger than the national average may be needed; if that flow is achieved, the range of screens required to maintain a surplus is narrow. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the results are very sensitive to changes in the proportion of insured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs in the United States can be sustained by health insurance payments under a variety of staffing models. Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs can be sustained only in an in-patient setting with above-average patient flow (more than 2500 screens). Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs in out-patient and emergency department settings can be sustained with below-average patient flows (fewer than 125 000 out-patient visits and fewer than 27 000 emergency department visits).

The Relationship Between End-of-Treatment Alcohol Use and Subsequent Healthcare Costs: Do Heavy Drinking Days Predict Higher Healthcare Costs?

BACKGROUND: A challenge for evaluating alcohol treatment efficacy is determining what constitutes a "good" outcome or meaningful improvement. Abstinence at the end of treatment is an unambiguously good outcome; however, a focus on abstinence ignores the potential benefits of patients reducing their drinking to less problematic levels. Patients may be drinking at low-risk levels at the end of treatment but may be high-functioning and impose few social costs. In this study, we estimate the relationship between drinking at the end of COMBINE treatment and subsequent healthcare costs with an emphasis on heavy and nonheavy drinking levels. METHODS: Indicators of heavy drinking days (HDDs; 5+ drinks for men, 4+ for women) and nonheavy drinking days (non-HDDs) during the last 30 days of COMBINE treatment were constructed for 748 patients enrolled in the COMBINE Economic Study. Generalized linear models were used to model total costs following COMBINE treatment as a function of drinking indicators. Different model specifications analyzed alternative counts of HDDs (e.g., 1 HDD and 2 to 30 HDDs), and groups having Both non-HDDs and HDDs. RESULTS: Patients with HDDs had 66.4% (p < 0.01) higher healthcare costs than those who were abstinent. Having more than 2 HDDs was associated with the highest costs (75.9%, p < 0.01). Patients with non-HDDs had costs that were not significantly different than abstainers, even if they also had HDDs. However, those with HDDs only had costs 91.7% higher than abstainers (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Having HDDs at the end of treatment is associated with higher costs. Patients who had Only HDDs at the end of treatment had worse subsequent outcomes than those who had Both non-HDDs and HDDs. These findings offer new context for evaluating treatment outcomes and provide new information on the association of drinking with consequences.

Behavioral Health Outcomes Among Adults: Associations With Individual and Community-Level Economic Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the relationship between state and local economic conditions and serious psychological distress, substance use disorders, and mental health service utilization among adults in the United States. METHODS: Using data from 21,100 adults who responded to the 2008-2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a nationally representative survey of the U.S. civilian noninstitutionalized population living in households, the study used multivariate methods to examine associations between selected macroeconomic conditions and behavioral health outcomes. RESULTS: Living in states in the top three quartiles for serious mortgage delinquency rate and in counties in the top three quartiles for unemployment rate was associated with a lower likelihood of using mental health services among individuals experiencing serious psychological distress (adjusted relative risk [ARR]=.54, .52, and .73, and ARR=.58, .62, and .71, respectively, versus quartile 1). Individual-level characteristics were the primary predictors associated with higher odds of having substance use disorders or experiencing serious psychological distress, but macroeconomic variables were not statistically significant predictors of these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Both individual-level socioeconomic characteristics and population-level macroeconomic conditions were associated with behavioral health outcomes. Prevalence of serious psychological distress and substance use disorders and use of mental health services varied by economic measure. The findings suggest that access to and availability of mental health services for individuals experiencing serious psychological distress may be more challenging for those who do not have health insurance or who reside in regions with higher rates of mortgage foreclosures or higher rates of unemployment.

Return on Investment of a Work-Family Intervention: Evidence From the Work, Family, and Health Network.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a workplace initiative to reduce work-family conflict in a group-randomized 18-month field experiment in an information technology firm in the United States. METHODS: Intervention resources were micro-costed; benefits included medical costs, productivity (presenteeism), and turnover. Regression models were used to estimate the ROI, and cluster-robust bootstrap was used to calculate its confidence interval. RESULTS: For each participant, model-adjusted costs of the intervention were $690 and company savings were $1850 (2011 prices). The ROI was 1.68 (95% confidence interval, -8.85 to 9.47) and was robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The positive ROI indicates that employers' investment in an intervention to reduce work-family conflict can enhance their business. Although this was the first study to present a confidence interval for the ROI, results are comparable with the literature.